Car Stock Research Articles

The role of regulation, fiscal incentives and changes in tastes in the diffusion of unleaded petrol

This paper analyses the diffusion of unleaded petrol in the UK. Changes in the market share of unleaded fuel are the result of changes in the composition of the car stock and changes in the choice of fuel given the car stock. We find that fuel type choices have been mainly driven by changes in tastes and learning as opposed to changes in relative prices induced by fiscal incentives. However car stock composition effects dominate the diffusion process and we find that through this route regulatory changes have made major contributions to changes in the market share of unleaded fuel.

The Diffusion of Unleaded Petrol: An Anglo‐Italian Comparison

This paper explores and contrasts the factors contributing to the differences between Italy and the UK in the diffusion of unleaded petrol. Although subject to similar regulatory environments the countries exhibit very different patterns in the use of unleaded fuel. It is shown that differences in the composition of the car stock, different price incentives and different patterns of changes in taste are the main contributory factors to this, with changes in taste being the dominant factor.

Fiscal incentives to consumer innovation: the use of unleaded petrol in Europe

This paper explores the diffusion of unleaded fuel in eight European economies with the particular objective of evaluating fiscal incentives to consumer innovation as an instrument of technology policy. The unique diffusion patterns observed in each country reflect differing changes in the composition of the car stock and the choices of consumers with cars capable of using both leaded and unleaded fuel. Data restrictions limit the detailed analysis to the second of these two issues. Estimating a consumer diffusion model using Error Correction techniques the results indicate that the main driving forces (apart from changes in the composition of the car stock) have been country specific trend terms that reflect changing tastes and learning. In general, fiscal incentives have not played a major role in the diffusion process. We attribute this to the limited extent of these incentives and argue that given the estimated elasticities larger incentives would have generated a much more significant impact. Other policy conclusions are also drawn.

Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions

This paper forecasts the growth in car ownership to the year 2015 for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and a number of Asian economies, and estimates the implications of this growth on energy demand and emissions. The vehicle forecasts are based on models derived from distribution functions, which relate the car stock to income and population. The models are dynamically specified, so that short- and long-run income elasticities are estimated for the individual countries. The question of vehicle saturation, both in terms of ownership levels and time, is analysed, as are the similarities and differences in the demand relationships among the various countries. The forecasts of car ownership are combined with income and population projections and assumptions on possible trends in vehicle use, fuel efficiency and fuel prices to produce a range of estimates of fuel consumption CO 2 emissions. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for energy, environmental and transport policy.

Differential modulation of chicken lymphocyte blastogenesis and cytotoxic activity of natural killer cells in vitro by retinol, retinoic acid and beta-carotene

Summary The effects of retinol (ROL), retinoic acid (RA) and B-carotene (CAR) on the response of chicken lymphocyte blastogenesis and on the cytotoxic activity of natural killer (NK) cells were evaluated in vitro. Speenocytes were isolated from healthy growing chicks and cultured in presence of different concentrations of ROL, RA and CAR under similar experimental conditions. Lymphocyte response to concanavalin A (Con A) was affected by adding ROL, RA and CAR to the cultures, by the time of exposure and by methods used for diluting ROL, RA and CAR stock solutions. Addition of ROL stock solutions diluted in cell culture medium suppressed lymphocyte response in a linear dose-dependent manner whereas pre-dilution of ROL stock solutions in fetal bovine serum (ROL-FBS) increased blastogenesis in a linear manner. Addition of 10 μM of ROL-FBS at the beginning of the incubation period or 16 h after enhanced proliferative responses by 5 and 9 times, respectively, as compared to Con A-induced cells without ROL. Suppressed proliferative response of Con A-induced cells was seen when both RA and CAR working solutions were added at a concentration of 10 μM and 1 μM, respectively. However, RA and CAR pre-diluted in FBS (RA-FBS, CAR-FBS) increased proliferative response of Con A-induced cells in a quadratic dose-dependent manner. At peak levels of RA-FBS and CAR-FBS, blastogenesis was respectively 2.1 and 1.3 times higher than activated cells without RA-FBS or CAR-FBS. No significant increase was detected with RA or CAR directly diluted in RPMi medium. Cytotoxic activity of chicken NK cells was reduced when ROL was added to the cultures, whereas RA and CAR enhanced NK activity. Both preparations of tested compounds had similar effects on NK activity. Our results showed that immunocompetent cell functions were modulated by retinol, retinoic acid and B-carotene in a dose-dependent manner and by the method used to prepare the working solutions.

Fitting a Gompertz Curve

In this paper, a simple Gompertz curve-fitting procedure is proposed. Its advantages include the facts that the stability of the saturation level over the sample period can be checked, and that no knowledge of its value is necessary for forecasting. An application to forecasting the stock of cars in the Netherlands illustrates its merits.

The Automobile Industry in the East

In this period of transition in the East, the automobile industry is very instructive as regards the problems that are arising: i.e., how and at what pace will industry be able to carve out a place for itself on the world market. This presupposes a radical reorientation in the domain of production, exchange, and cooperation. The CMEA is being dismantled, and Western industries, increasingly solicited, are tempted to include the East European market in a global European, if not world, strategy. After presenting a brief report on automobile production and the automobile stock, Nestorovic analyzes various new strategies being implemented. The production of private cars, buses, and utility vehicles is barely 3,233,152 units per year for a population of about 398 million (compared with 3,698,465 units in France); the total number of motor vehicles is about 41,397,000 units, with a very low rate of renewal. Production declined overall by 2.4 percent in 1988. The reasons have been known for some time: few investments or poorly placed investments, obsolete technologies, lack of foreign currency, and rigid national markets. Two series of debates are in process. The first concerns satisfying the internal market: only 40 percent of demand in the USSR is met. The waiting period is generally between two and twelve years depending on the country, prices are always exorbitant, and recourse to the black market is frequent. Under such conditions, should domestic production continue to be backed, should more be imported, or should cooperative ventures be established? The answers vary from country to country. The second topic of debate is modernization of production. East European manufacturers will have to become a capital-intensive rather than a labor-intensive industry, cut loose the equipment industries, and increase capacities and quality. But with what means and at what price? East European manufacturers have undertaken to cooperate more closely, which everywhere entails new legislation on foreign investments, the effective dismantling of the monopoly on foreign trade, and privatization of firms. This reality is attended by financial and commercial risks for the Eastern partners: how should the objectives of production be defined? What quotas should be set for reexporting, how should they sell on the internal market and at what price, since the buying power of the populations of the Eastern countries is difficult to ascertain? The strategies of Western groups will henceforth be dictated by purely economic motivations, unlike the past when the main objective was to anticipate a future market. This means comparative costs of production and the creation of a market by investment. With an eye to this new environment, the author analyzes the different German, French, and Japanese strategies with regard to the Eastern countries, cooperative industrial agreements or projects, and commercial approaches. A final comment by H. Gicquiau gives an estimate of the current Soviet stock of private cars, the number of which varies considerably depending on the source.

Duration of crack growth in 20G1FL steel in regular and irregular loading with special reference to rolling stock of freight cars

Duration of crack growth in 20G1FL steel in regular and irregular loading with special reference to rolling stock of freight cars

Gasoline consumption and the stock of motor vehicles: An empirical analysis for the Swiss economy

The demand for gasoline and the stock of cars is empirically explained for the Swiss economy by applying statistical methods from modern time series analysis to annual data over the period 1962–1985. The short-run price and income elasticities of gasoline consumption are -0.3 to -0.45 and 0.7. The price elasticity became substantially higher after the first OPEC shock in 1973. Pollution control measures introduced in 1982 negatively affected the stock of cars. Longer run effects operating over changes in the size of the stock and the fuel efficiency of cars are stretched out over several years as shown by a variety of simulation experiments.

Australian private-vehicle fleet changes on register and on road, 1971–1982

Despite stagnation in new-vehicle sales from the mid 1970s, both the size and total usage made of the Australian stock of cars and station wagons continued to grow unabated into the early 1980s. Such apparently contradictory trends were an international phenomena, as were increased sourcing of vehicles from Japanese manufacturers, and the experience of less than favourable economic and demographic conditions. This paper looks at the factors behind the movements noted, and attempts to assess to what extent the “downsizing” phenomena observed overseas was encountered in Australia. Increasing vehicle life expectancy and an initially favourable age structure were found to account for contradictory growth rates in new registrations and the vehicle stock, while increased lifetime utilisation of light/medium vehicles accounted for much of the increase observed in total distance travelled. Only a weak downsizing trend was detected commencing circa 1979, its weakness reflecting an unexpected trend away from light vehicles. Projections indicate that if levels of, and size patterns associated with, new-vehicle registrations persist, downsizing trends will continue to be weak, and overall stock growth rates are likely to slow, although stagnation is unlikely by 1990.

The demand for gasoline: a comment on the cross-section analysis by Drollas

A recent article [1] used data for 1977 from different countries to estimate the long-run price elasticity of demand for gasoline. Some aspects can be criticized, particularly the interpretation of the results and the model used. An alternative is developed which accepts that the key factor influencing gasoline consumption is the stock of cars. However, energy use per car will vary depending on the size of the country and its average income and price of fuel. This model gives a non-linear equation which is estimated using the same data. All the coefficients are significant with the price elasticity being inelastic.

Assets and Debts in a Consumer Portfolio

Data from the 1977–78 Survey of Consumer Credit provide the opportunity to estimate demand functions for owned housing, home mortgages, car stocks, car debts, and other debts in the context of a portfolio model with both own‐ and cross‐partial adjustments. Consequently, information is gained as to how households adjust their demands for owned housing, mortgage, car stocks, car loans, and other debts in response to disequilibria in their asset and debt portfolio. Married with spouse present, female headed, and black families are studied separately. Income, life‐cycle, and family size effects are estimated as well as the speeds of adjustment to various disequilibria.

New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market

This article develops a short-run general equilibrium model of the automobile market by combining a discrete choice model of consumer automobile demand with simple models of new automobile production and used vehicle scrappage. The theoretical model allows an unlimited degree of heterogeneity of both consumers and automobiles, with equilibrium defined as aggregate demand equal to supply for every vehicle type. Econometric estimates of the scrappage and demand functions are then used to create a simulation model of the automobile market, which is used to provide forecasts of automobile sales, stocks, and scrappage for the 1978-1990 period.

Determinants of gasoline consumption

The article presents a model and empirical results concerning the effects that different factors have on gasoline consumption. Car ownership and driving intensity are considered as intervening life style factors in a recursive model explaining total gasoline consumption. The estimates are based on a logarithmic model. The data consist of time series from the years 1970–1979 of several European countries and the United States. Income elasticities were estimated for car stock and total gasoline consumption and price elasticities for driving intensity and total gasoline consumption. A dynamic specified model was used for exploring the effects of different pricing policies by simulation. Long-term forecasts were made under alternative assumptions about the income growth [1]. The results show that only regular cumulative increases in real gasoline prices are effective in reducing the driving intensity. However, the effect of price on total gasoline consumption still remains limited, because even at very moderate income growth rates the growth of the car stock exceeds the impact of the price. In an energy saving policy, then, also different policies affecting the car stock variable should be given more attention.

The demand for cars and gasoline: A simultaneous approach

This paper develops and estimates a simple model of the demand and supply of cars and gasoline in Israel, focusing on an individual maximizing his life-time utility function under various constraints. Particular emphasis is placed on the transaction cost in a car purchase, and the fact that cars can be characterized by size and age factors which, in turn, affect running costs and maintenance costs. The empirical results show that a change in the price of gasoline (and/or the price of new cars) changes the structure of the stock of cars with respect to engine size.

The effect of the oil crisis on the growth in the ownership and use of cars

Since the oil crisis of 1973, a number of studies have been made in various countries of the effects of the rise in petrol prices on the level of traffic flow, but rather fewer have attempted to delineate the complex chain of reactions within the car market set off by this impulse. We attempt to do this, using data from the UK. Since 1966 during the prediction stage of the first London Transportation Study it became obvious that low income and high income households had different rates of growth of car ownership, mainly because low income households bought cheap, old cars which vary in quantity and price differently from expensive, new cars. The Greater London Council therefore sponsored a study of car prices by age and size, starting from 1957 annually, and since the oil crisis, evaluated monthly. This has enabled us to examine the strong change in trend that had occurred, with large cars depreciating 15% per annum more than the smallest. The quantities of cars of each size registered each month are available from national statistics and this enables us to say that the previous 1% per annum increase in car size was arrested, with new cars becoming substantially smaller. A model of the car market has been developed which relates on the one hand the price distribution of cars by age, and on the other hand the price. distribution of the stock of cars owned at each household income level. Via the expenditure on car purchase at each household income level and the distribution of the length of time between purchase and resale of cars, a fully dynamic model has been developed to relate expenditure flow and stock. This enables us to test the effect of different trends on the dynamic equilibrium in the car market. The implications of the two trends noted above on the prediction of future car ownership growth are discussed, with the standstill since the oil crisis attributed to petrol prices via the split in household expenditure between purchase and use.

Application of a Threshold Regression Model to Household Purchases of Automobiles

The threshold regression assumes that value of dependent variable remains fixed until the concerted action of independent variables and error term induces it to overcome its reaction threshold. The existence of reaction thresholds in purchasing of private cars has been discussed and analyzed. Among main explanatory variables used in micro-economic studies, most significant appear to be household composition, age and education of head, number of earners, number and age of cars, value of stock of cars previously held, liquid assets, net worth, debts and place of residence. The independent variables finally retained in present study are permanent income, education of head household and number of children. To summarize, income appears to be most important variable affecting car purchases by households. There are no doubt other social and demographic characteristics of households which bear on this phenomenon, but nature of these variables as well as mechanisms through which they operate have not been sufficiently investigated and are not yet sufficiently well known to permit us to detect their effect very clearly, in statistical investigations.

Section I. Cars

Both the models whose performance is reviewed here(1) made use of the concept of a ‘depreciated stock’, and consisted of a relationship between income and other variables and depreciated car stock. To quote the original article : “ Most forecasts of demand normally attempt first to establish some historical relationship between movements in the consumption of the commodity in question, and changes in incomes and relative prices; these relationships are then used for forecasting. With cars (as with other durables) there is a difficulty about the concept of consumption. A car is not ‘consumed ‘immediately upon purchase; it lasts a considerable number of years. Further, for cars (unlike most other durables) there is a big secondhand market.”

Sales Forecasts and the Inventory Cycle

INVENTORY CYCLE analysis has so far assumed sales forecasts by firms-projecting a constant multiple of either the latest level, or the latest rate of change, of sales into the future. This structure is adequate to show the way in which expectations and the level of business activity interact, but it has a certain ring of implausibility. Other ways of forecasting sales change the behavior of the model, so we may ask if stability is particularly sensitive to the technique assumed, and if more realistic forecasting techniques will enhance or diminish cyclical stability. Here I propose one forecasting technique that pretends to added realism (while remaining sufficiently simple to be incorporated in a formal inventory cycle model) and partly evaluate its effect on cyclical stability. If we are to shift our attention to forecasting models very far removed from naive extrapolation, we must endow the hypothetical seer with information beyond his own past sales levels. A wide choice of alternative assumptions confronts us; casual inspection of forecasting texts will show that some firms find it useful to look at trends in national income or similar aggregates, while others find more specific indicators useful: automobile tire manufacturers use estimates of the stock of cars on the road, for example. But many of these alternatives are specific to a particular industry; here we seek a model that could plausibly be used by most industries, one which will take account of industry differences while using one functional form (for mathematical simplicity). We shall assume that the forecaster knows which sectors of the economy buy the output of his industry, and has some idea of both the trends in

Demand for Automobiles in the United States

This study of demand for consumer durables uses regression analysis to find which economic theories of demand give good fits to statistics appropriate to the United States for the years 1921 to 1953, and thus including the war years. The consumer durable studied is the passenger motor vehicle. In any one year the new supply only constitutes about one quarter of the total stock so that, as a first approximation, the supply equation can be ignored. First, the study shows that the price of motor vehicles, including second-hand ones, can be ‘ explained’ very satisfactorily in terms of total stock and income. If income is defined realistically so as to allow for the value of services rendered by consumer durables purchased previously, there is no need to add a trend term to take care of changing tastes. This part of the study shows a price elasticity of about unity and income elasticity about 2. A second analysis considers consumer durables as alternatives to money, but not to interest-bearing securities which are affected by the rate of interest. Good fits are obtained when the price of cars is considered as a function of the stock of cars and the stock of money, and little improvement is obtained in the fit when income is added. The third part of the study is more concerned to find the demand equations for new cars using stocks of old cars as one of the independent variables. At first glance the equations are now more difficult to interpret ; the use of logarithms has been discarded so that the value of the calculated coefficients depends upon the units used for the variables. Values of these are of the order of 500 for income, 120 for price and only 7 for stock of cars and 2 for the purchase of cars ; hence the coefficients linking income and price with the purchase of new cars seem small. The results are not such good fits as in the first and second types of analysis, and fits are better when disposable income rather than real consumption is used, purchases of new cars during a year being a function of price, disposable income and stock of cars at the beginning of the year.