Stock Market Downturn Research Articles

Aggregate consumption spending, the stock market and asymmetric error correction

In this study, we show how changes in wealth resulting from unanticipated changes in the value of equity holdings begin a process whereby households alter consumption growth in order to close the gap between actual and target spending. Because of changing uncertainty or equity price volatility over the stock market cycle, we found the time path of this adjustment to exhibit near-random walk behaviour during stock market downturns. Conversely, during ‘boom’ periods, e.g. when the value of equities held by households was greater than the threshold, the growth in consumer spending was quick to eliminate the disparity between actual and target spending.

Aggregate consumption spending, the stock market and asymmetric error correction

In this study, we show how changes in wealth resulting from unanticipated changes in the value of equity holdings begin a process whereby households alter consumption growth in order to close the gap between actual and target spending. Because of changing uncertainty or equity price volatility over the stock market cycle, we found the time path of this adjustment to exhibit near-random walk behaviour during stock market downturns. Conversely, during ‘boom’ periods, e.g. when the value of equities held by households was greater than the threshold, the growth in consumer spending was quick to eliminate the disparity between actual and target spending.

Economic Adjustment of Recent Retirees to Adverse Wealth Shocks

Since the mid-nineties, the stock market has had an unprecedented impact on the wealth of current and future retirees. Using data from the Current Population Survey and the Health and Retirement Study, this report estimates consumption and labor supply responses of individuals in their 50s and 60s to the recent stock market downturn. We estimate an elasticity of consumption with respect to wealth changes ranging from five to seven percent. This implies that households respond to a decline in wealth by reducing their consumption by 5 to 7 percent of the wealth decline. For example, if a household's wealth declined by $100,000, this estimate suggests they would reduce their annual consumption by $5,000 to $7,000. Among retirees, we do not observe any re-entry into the labor force in response to wealth losses due to stock market declines. This suggests that retirement is more or less an absorbing state, for either supply or demand reasons: once an individual retires, it is very difficult to become employed once again.

New Economy Myths and Reality

In the late 1990s, some economists announced that the American economy had fundamentally changed. According to this view, technological advances had brought on a higher sustained level of productivity growth, which allowed faster economic growth with less inflation. But given events since 2000 - the long, steep stock market downturn, the falloff in business investment and the subsequent recession - many question whether anything in the New Economy view is valid. Although those who hold this view consider accelerated productivity growth fundamental to the late '90s boom, other forces were also at work. These include the earlier deregulation of key U.S. industries, financial innovation and freer trade in many parts of the world. Despite this, the flood of Internet-related businesses and the spectacular rise in their stock valuations led some to see the New Economy as solely an Internet phenomenon. Is the New Economy view simply Pollyanna economics? Or is it rooted in reality? An analysis of several myths shows that recent advances in information technology have, in fact, helped transform the U.S. economy. While such technology effects are an old story, the evidence suggests that the current situation differs significantly. The New Economy has not produced ever-increasing stock prices or tamed the business cycle. But it has accelerated productivity growth, making the economy more resilient and flexible, with less volatile growth rates and fewer and milder recessions, thereby improving living standards.

Growth Expectations, Capital Flows and International Risk Sharing

Over the past decades, cross-border financial flows have increased in importance and have in many occasions exceeded the underlying current account positions. This phenomenon has been accompanied by an increase in the volume of international equity transactions that accentuate the role of international risk sharing as a factor for the macroeconomic response to shocks. We use a stylised two-bloc, two-period model of the global economy, with a simple stochastic productivity shock affecting only one country. Efficient global risk-sharing imply that expected productivity gains in one country will attract equity inflows in excess of those needed to finance the current account. Upward-biased expectations about prospects for the productivity gains can further increase the risk exposure of foreign shareholders. The model is calibrated to show how ex post market losses - whether due to normal stock market downturn or ex ante over-optimism - are distributed and how they affect global consumption and current account positions. The results suggest that international spill over effects of stock market bubbles can contribute to business cycle synchronisation across economic areas.

Taking stock at the new millennium: a study of twelve stock markets

Illustrates the impact of major events on UK share prices/returns in the last 35 years and the time series trends of Asian stock markets. Looks at the impact of the 1997 Asian crisis on Asian financial markets from the US investor’s point of view, comparing 1994‐1999 data for the “tiger markets” with the mature markets of the USA, UK and Japan using a conservative investment strategy to “minimize the probability of loss”. Shows that a mixed portfolio gave higher returns than US domestic returns with less risk. Confirms this using the tail index based on extreme value theory; and shows that correlation has a positive relationship with volatility but a negative relationship with returns. Adds that, during stock market downturn, the increase in correlation and volatility may cancel out the benefits of diversification.

Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns

This article uses a Markov-switching model that incorporates duration dependence to capture nonlinear structure in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns. The model sorts returns into a high-return stable state and a low-return volatile state. We label these as bull and bear markets, respectively. The filter identifies all major stock-market downturns in over 160 years of monthly data. Bull markets have a declining hazard functions although the best market gains come at the start of a bull market. Volatility increases with duration in bear markets. Allowing volatility to vary with duration captures volatility clustering.

Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns

This paper uses a Markov switching model which incorporates duration dependence to capture nonlinear structure in both the conditional mean and variance of stock returns. The model sorts returns into a high return stable state and a low return volatile state. We label these as bull and bear markets respectively. The filter identifies all major stock market downturns in over 160 years of monthly data. We find that both bear and bull markets have declining hazard functions. Despite the declining hazards, the best market gains come at the start of a bull market. Moreover, allowing the conditional mean and volatility to vary with duration captures volatility clustering.

Financing high technology: The Australian venture capital market

To remedy a shortage of venture capital for the development of emerging high-technology businesses, the Australian government in 1984 initiated a Management and Investment Companies (MIC) program. Under the program, 11 MICs were licensed to raise venture capital from investors who are allowed to claim 100% of their investments as a tax deduction. This study identified a total of 47 venture capital organizations of different ownership structures and investment preferences. Undoubtedly, the MIC program has played a catalytic role in the rapid development of this market to its current capital base of A$353 million. However, there are still segments within the market where venture capital supply is deficient. Further, the recent stock market downturn has dampened the venture capital supply government initiative in reviewing its policy framework at this juncture is crucial in order to remove impediments and create a positive environment conducive to the long-term development of the venture capital market in Australia.

Recent Canadian Experience on the Profitability of Insider Trades

AbstractRecent Canadian data on large insider transactions showed that abnormal gains accrued to directors and bank directors during a stock market upturn. During a stock market downturn, beneficial owners, senior officers, and bank directors were compensated by more than the risk‐adjusted rates of return from sales of stocks of their own companies. Since Baesel and Stein's early study, abnormal gains persisted in spite of the introduction of stiffer penalties on insider trading.