Stock Market Cycles Research Articles

Are Chinese Stock Market Cycles Duration Independent?

This paper studies the duration properties of the Chinese stock market cycle. We find evidence for duration dependence in both A-share and B-share markets for whole cycles. The results reject the random-walk hypotheses for both markets. For half cycles, evidence of duration dependence for expansions in the Shanghai A-share market is found. For the Shenzhen B-share market, there is little evidence of duration dependence for half cycles. Although the B-share market is less liquid as compared to the A-share market, the results of this study suggest that the B-share market is more efficient than the A-share market. An important implication is that the quality of market participants plays an important role in the duration property of the Chinese stock market.

Duration Dependence in Bull and Bear Stock Markets

Testing duration in stock markets concerns the ability to predict the turning points of bull and bear cycles. The Weibull renewal process has been used in previous studies to analyze duration dependence in economic and financial cycles. A goodness-of-fit test, however, shows that this model does not fit data from U.S. stock market cycles. As a solution, this study fits the modulated power law process that relies on less restrictive assumptions. Moreover, it measures both the long term properties of bull and bear markets, such as the tendency of the cycles to become shorter (or longer), as well as the short term effects, such as duration dependence. The results give evidence of negative duration dependence in all samples of bull markets and evidence of positive duration dependence in complete, peacetime and post WWII samples of bear markets. There is no evidence of any structural change in duration dependence after WWII in either bull or bear markets. The results show that bull and bear markets tend to get progressively shorter, but for bull markets this trend has accelerated since WWII whereas for bear markets this trend has decelerated since WWII. Goodness-of-fit tests suggest that the modulated power is a suitable model for U.S. stock market cycles.

The Persistence of Employee 401(K) Contributions Over a Major Stock Market Cycle: Evidence on the Limited Power of Inertia on Savings Behavior

Many middle-income workers save for retirement through 401(k) plans. This study addresses the concern that low account balances of older workers may indicate that these vehicles are not sufficient to insure adequate retirement savings. In particular, the study shows that workers are not persistent (continuing once a worker has started) in contributing, and a weak stock market exacerbates the problem. The study suggests that the concept of inertia, which is in vogue in behavioral economics, does not seem to hold for 401(k) saving behavior. Furthermore, the investment strategy of dollar cost averaging does not seem to hold, either. Using panel data (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) covering a six-year time span from 1999 to 2005, the study presents descriptive and econometric evidence about the persistence behavior of individuals with 401(k) accounts. In particular, the PSID data that were analyzed come from four biannual waves in 1999, 2001, 2003, and 2005. Descriptive data show that of the sample of household heads aged 21-65 in 2005 who were employed in every time period, only about one-third (35 percent) contributed to their plan in all four waves. Job changing had an impact. However, even for individuals in the sample who did not change jobs, less than half (46 percent) contributed in all four years of the survey. An equation modeling 401(k) contribution behavior was estimated using logit regression analysis. When this model was estimated with the sample of individuals who were employed in each panel and with the sample of individuals who were employed in each panel and never changed jobs, the coefficient on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive and significant. Workers contributed to their plans when the market was up. This investment error is called herd investing, where individuals get into the market when it is high and not when it is low. The study concludes that the findings have important implications for the pension system and adequacy of retirement income. Projects of future retirement income readiness that assume that workers persistently contribute over their working lives greatly exaggerate the future levels of pension assets workers will have accumulated.

Interactions between Business Cycles, Stock Market Cycles and Interest Rates: The Stylised Facts

In this paper, we study the co-movements between stock market indices and real economic activity over the business cycle in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, using two complementary approaches in our analysis. First, we identify the turning points in real economy indicators and stock market indices and determine the extent to which these series co-move. Second, we calculate the correlations between the cyclical components of real economy indicators and excess returns, on the one hand, and the correlations between the structural components and these indicators, on the other. We then analyse the co-movements between three-month interest rates and the cyclical and structural components of the real economy and stock market indices.

Sezoniškumo Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje tyrimas

The main purpose of this article is to test if there are any seasonal tendencies in Lithuanian stock market and if so, do they match seasonal anomalies found in other countries. To achieve this ambition, tests were done by dividing returns of OMXV index into three groups: month of the year, week of the month and day of the week. Analysis was made using 10 years of historical data which covers main stages of Lithuanian stock market cycle. Results show that seasonal anomalies do exist in Lithuanian stock market and that their characteristics are similar to those found by researches in other stock markets. Article in Lithuanian. Sezoniškumo Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje tyrimas Santrauka. Pagrindinis straipsnio tikslas–ištirti Lietuvos akcijų indekso OMXV sezonines charakteristikas ir nustatyti, ar šio indekso pokyčių tendencijos turi panašumų su kitose pasaulio rinkose pastebėtomis sezoninėmis tendencijomis. Šio tikslo siekta tyrimą atliekant su mėnesiniais, savaitiniais ir dieniniais OMXV indekso pokyčiais, juos suskirstant į atskiras grupes: mėnesio pokyčius, savaitės pokyčius per mėnesį ir dienos pokyčius per savaitę. Siekiant aprėpti visus akcijų rinkos ciklo etapus, analizuojant naudoti 10 metų duomenys. Atliktas tyrimas leidžia teigti, kad sezoninės anomalijos Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje kaip ir kitose šalyse egzistuoja ir jų charakteristikos yra panašios. Reikšminiai žodžiai: sezoniškumas Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje, ciklinės anomalijos.

An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle

This paper investigates the duration dependence of the US stock market cycles. A new classification method for bull and bear market regimes based on the crossing of the market index and its moving average is proposed. We show evidence of duration dependence in whole cycles. The half cycles, however, are found to be duration independent. More importantly, we find that the degree of duration dependence of the US stock market cycles has dropped after the launch of the NASDAQ index.

Statistical arbitrage in the US equities market

We study model-driven statistical arbitrage in US equities. Trading signals are generated in two ways: using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or regressing stock returns on sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). In both cases, the idiosyncratic returns are modelled as mean-reverting processes, which leads naturally to ‘contrarian’ strategies. We construct, back-test and compare market-neutral PCA- and ETF-based strategies applied to the broad universe of US equities. After accounting for transaction costs, PCA-based strategies have an average annual Sharpe ratio of 1.44 over the period 1997 to 2007, with stronger performances prior to 2003. During 2003–2007, the average Sharpe ratio of PCA-based strategies was only 0.9. ETF-based strategies had a Sharpe ratio of 1.1 from 1997 to 2007, experiencing a similar degradation since 2002. We also propose signals that account for trading volume, observing significant improvement in performance in the case of ETF-based signals. ETF-strategies with volume information achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 from 2003 to 2007. The paper also relates the performance of mean-reversion statistical arbitrage strategies with the stock market cycle. In particular, we study in detail the performance of the strategies during the liquidity crisis of the summer of 2007, following Khandani and Lo [Social Science Research Network (SSRN) working paper, 2007].

Using P-Values from Regression Analysis as a Measured Approach for Stochastic Determinant of Monthly Index Cycle Fluctuations

We offer a new dimension for measuring monthly stock market cycle fluctuations using p-values derived from linear regression analysis. Like any other non-stationary macroeconomic variables, we propose that stock market indices do have their own intrinsic cyclical dynamicity that represents as wave-like characteristic patterns which can be interpreted to identify market trends in the short-run. Using regression statistics, this paper helps to develop a real framework for identifying linear waves of conditional volatility that can be conceptualized to construct a novel indicator-the ‘p-value’ indicator to decipher the boom-bust cycles periodically. We find that our modeled approach being effectual in enumerating index cyclical dynamicity as such.

Diversification Properties of Investments in Shipping

In contrast to the more established alternative asset classes like real estate or hedge funds, there is not much research available for investments in shipping. This article contributes to closing this gap in the literature and investigates the diversification properties of investments in shipping. During the sample period, an investment in shipping stocks earned an attractive risk-return combination. In general, the addition of an investment in shipping stocks to a base portfolio of stocks and bonds enhanced diversification. The results also reveal other insights. First, the composition of the shipping stocks portfolio mattered much. Compared with the MSCI World Marine Index, which is a capitalization-weighted aggregate of 10 stocks, the diversification benefit of the broader and equally-weighted shipping stocks portfolio of our Research Index, with 41 stocks, was much more pronounced and somewhat statistically significant. Second, diversification properties were not stable through the course of time with larger diversification benefits during the bear market from March 2000 to March 2003 compared to the bull market from April 2003 to October 2007. The positive overall view of the diversification properties of shipping stocks is based on a single full stock market cycle.

On the challenges in quantitative equity management

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank the Research Foundation of the CFA Institute, which commissioned the 2007 study whose findings are discussed in this paper and agreed to let the author discuss those results in this article. This paper is a more technical and expanded discussion of the issues that were presented in Fabozzi et al. (2007 Easterling, E. 2005. Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles, Fort Bragg, CA: Cypress House. [Google Scholar]).

Statistical Arbitrage in the U.S. Equities Market

We study model-driven statistical arbitrage strategies in U.S. equities. Trading signals are generated in two ways: using Principal Component Analysis and using sector ETFs. In both cases, we consider the residuals, or idiosyncratic components of stock returns, and model them as a mean-reverting process, which leads naturally to contrarian'' signals.The main contribution of the paper is the back-testing and comparison of market-neutral PCA- and ETF- based strategies over the broad universe of U.S. equities. Back-testing shows that, after accounting for transaction costs, PCA-based strategies have an average annual Sharpe ratio of 1.44 over the period 1997 to 2007, with a much stronger performances prior to 2003: during 2003-2007, the average Sharpe ratio of PCA-based strategies was only 0.9. On the other hand, strategies based on ETFs achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.1 from 1997 to 2007, but experience a similar degradation of performance after 2002. We introduce a method to take into account daily volume information in the signals (using trading time'' as opposed to calendar time), and observe significant improvements in performance in the case of ETF-based signals. ETF strategies which use volume information achieve a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 from 2003 to 2007.The paper also relates the performance of mean-reversion statistical arbitrage strategies with the stock market cycle. In particular, we study in some detail the performance of the strategies during the liquidity crisis of the summer of 2007. We obtain results which are consistent with Khandani and Lo (2007) and validate their unwinding'' theory for the quant fund drawndown of August 2007.

Impact of Strikes on Shareholders' Wealth: Empirical Evidence from the 1990's

This study examines the effect of a strike on the wealth of shareholders, and whether there is a difference in the effects during various phases of a stock market cycle. Although a significant loss of shareholders' value is observed at the beginning of a strike, most of the losses are recovered upon the settlement of the strike. During a bear market, the negative impact of a strike on a firm's value is more profound, and the firm does not fully recover its value when the strike ends. On the other hand, in a bull market, struck firms not only suffer a less severe loss but also experience a quicker rebound in their firms' value. Since the duration of a strike during a bear and bull market period is not significantly different, we conclude that the observed difference in the impact of a strike during different phases of a stock market cycle cannot be attributed to the difference in the duration of a strike.

The Stock Market Valuation of R&D Information in Biotech Firms*

We assess whether a firm's research and development (R&D) expenditures, as well as uncertainty metrics that underlie their ultimate conversion into value, can significantly enhance the relevance of a valuation model based solely on traditional financial reporting variables and improve equity value predictions. We focus on the biotech industry during the 1998-2004 period and classify firms into emerging and mature categories to reflect their commercial maturity. The 1998-2004 period also comprises three distinct market cycles: a bubble (1998-99), a downturn (2000-2), and a rebound (2003-4). We first show that R&D expenditures are incrementally value-relevant over the baseline financial reporting model (book value and earnings). Also, the value-relevance of R&D expenditures is enhanced significantly by introducing uncertainty metrics as interaction terms. Second, the mapping into value reveals differential roles according to commercial maturity. We find that alliance networks and targeting high profile diseases have greater value-relevance for emerging firms. In contrast, the value of mature biotechs is more sensitive to drug development status and product diversification. Third, the mapping to value also differs across stock market cycles, with a tendency toward a return to fundamentals (financial and nonfinancial) as we move away from the 1998-99 bubble. Fourth, we find that adding R&D expenditures generally improves equity value predictive ability. Adding uncertainty metrics further improves predictions, with differences still prevailing across firms and stock market conditions. Both sets of R&D information make higher contributions to predictive accuracy in the case of mature biotechs, and results reinforce our view of a return to fundamentals, especially for these firms.

A Test for Long-Term Cyclical Clustering of Stock Market Regimes

This paper finds that observed monthly United States stock index returns are consistent with an underlying mechanism of shifts in regimes amongst multiple states with differing means and volatility. An issue of especial interest is whether long-term clustering of regimes gives rise to stock market cycles. The paper therefore introduces a likelihood ratio test for long-term clustering of regimes. Clustering of regime presence tends to involve much longer term cycles than the bull and bear market cycles identified by Pagan and Sossounov (2003), thus extending the research issues that are associated with the analysis of mean returns using multiple state regime-switching models.

Is it the weather?

We show that results in the recent strand of the literature, which tries to explain stock returns by weather induced mood shifts of investors, might be data-driven inference. More specifically, we consider two recent studies [Kamstra, Mark J., Kramer, Lisa A., Levi, Maurice D., 2003a. Winter blues: A SAD stock market cycle. American Economic Review 93(1), 324–343; Cao, Melanie, Wei, Jason, 2005. Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly. Journal of Banking and Finance 29(6), 1559–1573] that claim that a seasonal anomaly in stock returns is caused by mood changes of investors due to lack of daylight and temperature variations, respectively. While we confirm earlier results in the literature that there is indeed a strong seasonal effect in stock returns in many countries: stock market returns tend to be significantly lower during summer and fall months than during winter and spring months as documented by Bouman and Jacobsen [Bouman, Sven, Jacobsen, Ben, 2002. The Halloween indicator, Sell in May and go away: Another puzzle. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1618–1635], there is little evidence in favor of a SAD or temperature explanation. In fact, we find that a simple winter/summer dummy best describes this seasonality. Our results suggest that without any further evidence the correlation between weather-related variables and stock returns might be spurious and the conclusion that weather affects stock returns through mood changes of investors is premature.

On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia

This paper implements estimation and testing procedures for comovements of stock market “cycles” or “phases” in Asia. We extend the Harding and Pagan [Harding, D., Pagan, A.P., 2006. Synchronization of cycles. Journal of Econometrics 132 (1), 59–79] test for strong multivariate nonsynchronization (SMNS) between business cycles to a test that allows for an imperfect degree of multivariate synchronization between stock market cycles. Moreover, we propose a test for endogenously determining structural change in the bivariate and multivariate synchronization indices. Upon applying the technique to five Asian stock markets we find a significant increase in the cross country comovements of Asian bullish and bearish periods in 1997. A power study of the stability test suggests that the detected increase in comovement is more of a sudden nature (i.e. contagion or “Asian Flu”) instead of gradual (i.e. financial integration). It is furthermore argued that stock market cycles and their propensity toward (increased) synchronization contain useful information for both investors, policy makers and financial regulators.

Measuring Time-Varying Economic Fears with Consumption-Based Stochastic Discount Factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles

The views on financial liberalization are quite conflictive. Many argue that it triggers financial bubbles and crises. Others claim that financial liberalization allows markets to function properly and capital to move to its most profitable destination. The empirical evidence on these effects is not robust. This paper constructs a new comprehensive chronology of financial liberalization and shows that a key reason for the inconclusive evidence is that the effects of liberalization are time-varying. Financial liberalization is followed by large booms and busts only in the short run. In the long run institutions improve and financial markets tend to stabilize.

RETRACTED: Social mood: The stock market and political cycles

RETRACTED: Social mood: The stock market and political cycles

Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles

We reexamine duration dependence in stock market cycles using a generalized Weibull model. Recent empirical work by Cochran and DeFina [Cochran, S. J., & DeFina, R. H. (1995). Duration dependence in the U.S. stock market cycle: A parametric approach. Applied Financial Economics, 5, 309–318.], who use a chronology of stock market cycles to estimate a Weibull hazard model, shows duration dependence in stock prices. They find evidence of duration dependence in prewar market expansions and postwar market contractions. We update their postwar sample, then use a more flexible model that finds evidence of duration dependence for all prewar and postwar samples. The generalized Weibull model is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional Weibull model for all samples except prewar expansions.