ABSTRACT The limited ensemble sizes and the neglected model errors in ensemble-based Data Assimilation (DA) usually lead to underestimation of the error variance, and covariance inflation ‘inflates’ the covariance of a forecast or analysis ensemble by some positive factor in each assimilation cycle. In practice, the value of the inflation factor is often set by trial and error. Thus, a variety of adaptive covariance inflation (ACI) algorithms have been proposed to improve assimilation performance by adjusting the optimal parameters. Most of these used traditional optimization algorithms, such as gradient methods and relaxation methods. However, Evolutionary Algorithms(EAs), which encompass a range of population-based stochastic search techniques widely used in various engineering optimization problems, are rarely seen in DA. In this study, we developed a new framework for adaptive inflation factors, introducing differential evolution (DE) algorithm into local ensemble Transform Kalman filter (LETKF) that can explore the most suitable/optimal inflation factors online. A ‘micro-DE’ based data assimilation method can obtain better assimilation results step by step without taking a much longer time. The feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated in an idealized Lorenz-96 model with simulated observations. Under both perfect and imperfect-model scenarios, it is found that the ‘micro-DE’LETKF method is capable of outperforming the original LETKF with a considerable lower computational cost. The adaptive inflation factor is optimally updated at each assimilation cycle either around the upper bound or around the lower bound, which means that only an adaptive factor helps mitigate the ensemble collapse due to a lack of spread. However, the further study will consider the application of the methodology to more complex atmospheric models.
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