Stochastic Reproduction Number Research Articles

Neural network approach for cholera dynamics: Integrating deterministic and stochastic insights

In this article, a comprehensive qualitative analysis framework is presented that integrates stochastic and deterministic models to explore the transmission dynamics of Cholera disease. The significance of the reproduction number in understanding the spread of the disease and in formulating effective control strategies is emphasized. The sensitivity analysis of model parameters is conducted to identify those that critically influence transmission. By converting the deterministic model into a stochastic form, Brownian motion and stochastic parameters are incorporated to capture the inherent randomness in disease dynamics. This approach is further enriched by the application of neural networks (NN) to simulate and validate the complex interactions involved in Cholera transmission. The analysis extends to the global positive solution, stochastic reproduction number, and virus-free stochastic dynamics, providing an improved understanding of the disease's behavior. The critical conditions necessary for the extinction and long-term elimination of the virus are also addressed, highlighting the importance of controlling its spread. The stationary distribution of the disease is examined through the lens of a regular Markov process, enhancing the understanding of the stochastic model's dynamics. The results verified by neural networks, compared with those obtained from conventional numerical methods, underscore the accuracy and versatility of neural networks in epidemiological research, offering new perspectives and methodologies for tackling this global health challenge.

Global stability for a [formula omitted] dimensional HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatments

In this work, we derive and analyze a 2n+1-dimensional deterministic differential equation modeling the transmission and treatment of HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) disease. The model is extended to a stochastic differential equation by introducing noise in the transmission rate of the disease. A theoretical treatment strategy of regular HIV testing and immediate treatment with Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is investigated in the presence and absence of noise. By defining R0, n, Rt, n and Rt,n as the deterministic basic reproduction number in the absence of ART treatments, deterministic basic reproduction number in the presence of ART treatments and stochastic reproduction number in the presence of ART treatment, respectively, we discuss the stability of the infection-free and endemic equilibrium in the presence and absence of treatments by first deriving the closed form expression for R0, n, Rt, n and Rt,n. We show that there is enough treatment to avoid persistence of infection in the endemic equilibrium state if Rt,n=1. We further show by studying the effect of noise in the transmission rate of the disease that transient epidemic invasion can still occur even if Rt, n < 1. This happens due to the presence of noise (with high intensity) in the transmission rate, causing Rt,n>1. A threshold criterion for epidemic invasion in the presence and absence of noise is derived. Numerical simulation is presented for validation.