Abstract Background Catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) improves quality of life and lowers cardiovascular adverse events. However, AF recurrence rates remain high - thus the need for better or improved predictors of AF recurrence. The role of left atrial (LA) stiffness remains unclear, as prior findings were controversial. Purpose To explore the relationship between a noninvasive LA stiffness index (LAstiffn) and AF recurrence after catheter ablation. Methods We analyzed a prospectively recruited cohort of patients who underwent catheter ablation for AF, were in sinus rhythm at 3 months post-ablation, had no significant (< moderate) valvular disease, and had LA volumes and LA diastolic function prospectively measured. LAStiffn was calculated as (E/e’)/LA emptying fraction (LAEF) ratio (abnormal defined as >15/45≈0.3). Outcome endpoint was the first documented AF/atrial flutter episode, lasting >30s, beyond 3 months post ablation (end of blanking period). Results A total of 589 patients were studied (mean age 60±10 years; 75% men; 50% with persistent AF; Table 1). At 3 months post-ablation, mean LAVI(Left atrial volume index) was 36±10 mL/m2 and LAstiffn 0.32±0.22. LAstiffn tended to be higher in older patients, in females, and patients with persistent AF and comorbidities (hypertension, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, etc). At multivariable regression analysis, LAstiffn correlated with LV size and mass, degree of mitral/tricuspid regurgitation, and right ventricular systolic pressure. At 1 year, 3 years, and 8 years follow up, AF recurred in 118, 191, and 347 patients, respectively. At univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, LAstiffn index >0.3 was significantly associated with AF recurrence at 1 year (log-rank P=.0005), 3 years (P=.0002), and 8 years follow up (P<.0001; Figure). In multivariate analysis including all clinical and laboratory factors with P<.10 in univariate analysis, LAstiffn >0.3 remained an independent factor for AF recurrence only at 3-years (adjusted HR 1.40 [1.03-1.91], P=.03) and 8 years follow up (adjusted HR 1.65 [1.29-2.13], P<.0001) after adjustment for age, sex, type of AF (persistent/paroxysmal), LA volume index (LAVi), obstructive sleep apnea, and prior pacemaker/ICD implantation (best independent factors); P=.14 at 1 year follow up. In ROC analysis, LAstiffn (AUC 0.61, P=.001) performed slightly better than LA deformation LAEF (AUC 0.59, P=.002) or E/e’ (AUC 0.58, P=.03), though with modest sensitivity/specificity (58%/62%). Conclusions LAstiffn may reflect LA myopathy that is likely due to the cumulative effects of comorbidities, diastolic dysfunction, and intrinsic LA tissue remodeling. LA stiffening may be a substrate facilitating redevelopment of AF, thus patients with increased LAstiffn may need more frequent monitoring to prevent/treat AF recurrence earlier.
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