Status Quo Policy Research Articles

What Policies Do Local Governments Use to Promote Physical Activity? A Comparative Analysis of Municipalities From 4 EU Countries and Japan

Background: As public policies have the potential to change the entire system of physical activity (PA) promotion and to create conducive environments, they are particularly relevant to address the persistently low levels of PA across the world. Furthermore, WHO’s Global Action Plan on Physical Activity highlights the relevance of local governments as important partners for policy action. However, our knowledge on how local PA promotion policy compares across countries remains limited. Methods: We conducted an exploratory study as part of the LoGoPAS project to compare the status quo of local PA policies across five municipalities in five different countries. Using purposive sampling, Jyväskylä (Finland), Nice (France), Erlangen (Germany), Fujisawa (Japan) and Cluj-Napoca (Romania) were selected. Data were collected and analysed via desk research and expert consultation using the CAPLA-Santé, a validated tool designed to assess relevant aspects of local PA promotion policies. Results: The analysis showed that the main responsibility for PA promotion varied between municipalities, resting either with the sport or the health sector. A total of 50 relevant PA policy documents were identified, focusing on multiple settings and target groups. Budgets for PA promotion differed across municipalities. Research on PA was reported to have informed policy development in some but not all cases. Across countries, political support was identified as a key driver of local PA promotion. Conclusion: LoGoPAS is the first study to apply the CAPLA-Santé outside of France and the first to use it for an international comparative analysis. Results highlight the ability of the tool to provide insights into local PA policy development, contents, and implementation worldwide. While this study provided a cross-sectional in-depth analysis of the status quo in select municipalities, future research could also aim to assess policies at a large scale, i.e. for multiple municipalities and/or on a regular basis.

The Political Economy of Priority Setting and Resource Allocation in European Oral Health Policy.

Pressing oral health care challenges pose prioritization dilemmas for governments. This study aimed to identify key determinants of prioritization in oral health policy in Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, as part of a series of the DELIVER project. A literature review based on a search of PubMed and Google Scholar articles related to these countries from January 1, 2000, to October 17, 2023, and key informant interviews with policy makers were conducted to identify key trends in oral health policy choices and determinants of priority setting and resource allocation processes. A total of 249 articles were included, and 6 key informants were interviewed. The overarching focus identified was the accessibility of dental care, primarily characterized by incremental and localized programs for vulnerable groups. Supply-side arrangements consisted of adaptations to population needs, including financial incentives for providers and adjusted service delivery models such as task shifting. Several interventions of quality management were found, particularly in Germany. A funnel was produced to illustrate 3 stages driving oral health policy choices. These were political accountability to address population demand, stakeholder influence through negotiations and lobbying, and bureaucratic justification of policy innovations. While findings highlighted political attention on oral health care through public outcry, complex negotiations and limited data formed bottlenecks of prioritization. Prioritization in oral health policy seems to be dominated by fragmented investments in incremental services of delivery rather than synergized reforms such as granular package designs. While some contexts showed political traction for oral health policy, complex negotiations strained by interests of private professionals and challenges of limited evidence result in difficulties in constraining oral health care within public spending targets. This has placed oral health policy in a state of inertia, where insufficient public resources meet the force of content exerted by the private sector. This study can inform policy makers and researchers to understand the various stakeholder roles in maintaining the status quo of oral health policy and the processes creating the bottlenecks preventing progression in improving oral health care systems. This understanding could lead to novel approaches to oral health policy making and the appropriate data acquisition and analysis to aid oral health policy.

Untying the Knot: How Child Support and Alimony Affect Couples’ Dynamic Decisions and Welfare

Abstract In many countries, divorce law mandates post-marital maintenance payments (child support and alimony) to insure the lower earner in married couples against financial losses upon divorce. This paper studies how maintenance payments affect couples’ intertemporal decisions and welfare. I develop a dynamic model of family labor supply, home production, savings, and divorce and estimate it using Danish register and survey data. The model captures the policy tradeoff between providing insurance to the lower earner and enabling couples to specialize efficiently, on the one hand, and maintaining labor supply incentives for divorcees, on the other hand. I use the estimated model to study various counterfactual policy scenarios. I find that alimony comes with more substantial labor supply disincentives compared to child support payments and is less efficient in providing consumption insurance. The welfare maximizing policy, within the status quo policy space, involves increasing child support and reducing alimony payments. My results show that Pareto improvements beyond this welfare maximizing policy are feasible, highlighting limitations of how child support and alimony policies are commonly implemented.

The welfare costs of business cycles unveiled: Measuring the extent of stabilization policies

How can we measure the welfare benefit of ongoing stabilization policies? We develop a methodology to calculate the welfare cost of business cycles taking into account that observed consumption is partially smoothed. We propose a decomposition that disentangles consumption into a mix of laissez-faire and riskless components, decoupled by a parameter that captures the span of stabilization power. We estimate this parameter profiting from two distinct variance regimes measured in the historical consumption data and an identification strategy for the mapping between the span for each of these periods. In our preferred specification, we find that the welfare cost of total fluctuations is 11 percent of lifetime consumption, of which 82 percent is smoothed by the status quo policies, yielding a residual 1.8 percent of consumption to be tackled by policymakers.

Exploring the eternal struggle: The Narrative Policy Framework and status quo versus policy change

This article proposes an integration of the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) with prospect theory to investigate how the status quo and policy change are recounted in public debates. By integrating insights from prospect theory into the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF), we investigate narratives in the policy domain of farm animal welfare, which is characterized by a strong polarization of actor coalitions. We compare public debates in France and Germany between 2020 and 2021. Our analysis shows that the NPF’s analytical strength is enhanced by integrating the distinction between status quo and policy change in narrative elements. This distinction enables further empirical nuancing of actors’ narrative communication, and in combination with insights from prospect theory, it allows for new conjectures about actors’ use of narrative strategies such as the devil shift and the angel shift. In addition to the theoretical contribution, we shed light on debates surrounding farm animal welfare in Western Europe: Both animal welfare and agricultural coalitions are unsatisfied with the status quo, but they promote policy change of different kinds.

National Identity and the Limits of Platform Power in the Global Economy

Abstract Among the defining features of the contemporary global economy are the digital disruption of economic sectors and the accompanying political and regulatory conflicts. Across the world, multinational technology firms have mobilized consumers as a key ally in these conflicts, a critical element of the platform power they wield. In this article, I examine how non-consumer identities can limit the exercise of platform power by such firms. By synthesizing the concept of platform power with research on political consumerism and national identity, I argue that activating national identity can generate opposition to policies favorable to multinational technology firms and, in turn, curtail their ability to appeal to public support. Empirically, this article uses an online, nationally representative survey fielded in Canada. I explore the determinants of support for global regulatory cooperation and the domestic policy status quo, as well as the causal effect of consumer and national identity framing using vignette experiments across three issue areas: banking, telecommunications, and taxation. The findings reveal that activating consumer identities consistently shifts support but the effect of national identity is more variable. This article thus contributes to scholarship on the digital economic transformation and the exercise of business power in the global economy.

Examining chronic kidney disease screening frequency among diabetics: a POMDP approach.

Forty percent of diabetics will develop chronic kidney disease (CKD) in their lifetimes. However, as many as 50% of these CKD cases may go undiagnosed. We developed screening recommendations stratified by age and previous test history for individuals with diagnosed diabetes and unknown proteinuria status by race and gender groups. To do this, we used a Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) to identify whether a patient should be screened at every three-month interval from ages 30-85. Model inputs were drawn from nationally-representative datasets, the medical literature, and a microsimulation that integrates this information into group-specific disease progression rates. We implement the POMDP solution policy in the microsimulation to understand how this policy may impact health outcomes and generate an easily-implementable, non-belief-based approximate policy for easier clinical interpretability. We found that the status quo policy, which is to screen annually for all ages and races, is suboptimal for maximizing expected discounted future net monetary benefits (NMB). The POMDP policy suggests more frequent screening after age 40 in all race and gender groups, with screenings 2-4 times a year for ages 61-70. Black individuals are recommended for screening more frequently than their White counterparts. This policy would increase NMB from the status quo policy between $1,000to $8,000 per diabetic patient at a willingness-to-pay of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY).

When is grassroots lobbying effective? The case of the e-petitions at the national level in the UK

The article examines the effectiveness of one technique of grassroots lobbying (e-petitions) in the UK through the prism of: (1) the claim that the goal of lobbying activity (the change versus protection of the status quo policy) is a great predictor of lobbying’s outcome; (2) the signalling theory; (3) the amended version of the economic theory of political information. In the paper, I studied the petitions signed by at least 10,000 citizens submitted to the House of Commons during the 57th Parliament of the UK (2017–2019) and analysed their effectiveness. I also measured the petitions’ issue salience for the ruling party (the Conservative Party) from the perspective of the analysed theories. The research results indicate the following: (1) e-petitions aiming to defend the status quo policy were considerably more effective than the ones striving to change it; (2) the scale of e-petition’s endorsement was not a crucial factor in determining the authorities’ decision, contradicting the assumption of the signalling theory; (3) moderately and highly popular lower salience issue e-petitions showed equal ineffectiveness. On the other hand, greatly popular higher salience issue e-petitions supported by the ruling party were less effective than their less popular counterparts. Conversely, e-petitions on higher salience issues opposed by the ruling party, whether moderately or widely endorsed by the public, exhibited equal ineffectiveness. These results mean that the economic theory of political information only partially explains the effectiveness of grassroots lobbying (i.e. in the last case). In conclusion, e-petitions represent a relatively efficient grassroots lobbying technique for influencing authorities in the UK, with approximately one in five being considered effective.

Identifying proactive and reactive policy entrepreneurs in collaborative networks in flood risk management

A policy entrepreneur is a distinct political actor aiming to affect change. The theoretical narrative regarding policy entrepreneurs is underpinned by their commitment to a policy solution, the multi-dimensional strategies they use to promote that solution, and a suite of attributes and skills facilitating their actions. Policy entrepreneurs reveal themselves through their attempts to transform policy ideas into policy innovations and, hence, disrupt status quo policy arrangements. Indeed, policy entrepreneurs share sensibilities with entrepreneurs in the market, whose conceptualisation serves as a heuristic for their counterparts in policy and politics. The emphasis on change borne out of innovative solutions distinguishes policy entrepreneurs from many other actors who aim to maintain current institutional settings and power relations. The growing scholarship on policy entrepreneurship assumes intentionality as inherent to the policy entrepreneur and their actions, foregrounding the image of the tenacious political actor set on steering their a priori pet policy to a suitable problem. This article draws from the market theory on entrepreneurship, contrasting proactive policy entrepreneurship (entrepreneurship by opportunity) and reactive policy entrepreneurship (entrepreneurship by necessity). We conduct a comparative social network analysis of three municipalities in southern Sweden focused on flood risk mitigation. We demonstrate two different logics of policy entrepreneurship (as a result of seizing opportunities versus as a reaction to vertical pressure), and we explore the consequences for enhancing our understanding of policy entrepreneurship.

Thinking about default enrollment lowers vaccination intentions and public support in G7 countries.

Policymakers often face a conundrum between being transparent about policies and ensuring that those policies are effective. This challenge is particularly relevant for behavioral nudges, which are not usually disclosed. Rather than avoiding transparency, we suggest that policymakers encourage citizens to reflect on nudges to help them understand their own views and align those views with their behaviors. Using data from an online survey experiment with 24,303 respondents in G7 countries, we examine the impact of reflection on a hypothetical default nudge policy for COVID-19 booster appointments. Contrary to expectations, participants say they would be less likely to get the booster when automatically enrolled compared with a control condition. Similarly, encouraging citizens to think about the status quo (baseline) policy also reduces intentions for boosters. These interventions have no effect on approval of the policy. Further, encouraging people to think about automatic enrollment decreases approval of the policy and further decreases their intentions to get vaccinated. These findings suggest that reflection on a nudge can increase backlash from a nudge and also elicit policy disapproval, thereby aligning policy support with behavioral intentions.

Ministerial policy roles and mandate letters in the Justin Trudeau government

AbstractThis article examines ministers as policy actors through analysis of tasks in mandate letters. These tasks were coded as involving either policy initiation, supplementation, maintenance, coordination, engagement, or information. The 2021 mandate letters show that policy maintenance tasks are most common, initiation the least, suggesting that most ministers are constrained to passive policy management. Four distinctive ministerial types are also identified. Activists are distinguished by their dominance over policy initiation, advocates are characterized most by policy supplementation and maintenance, managers are mostly tasked with maintaining the policy status quo, and networkers are distinctive in their share of coordination and information tasks.

Study on Status and Challenges of Chinas Double-Reduction Policy

Along with the rapid development of the Chinese economy and growing competition for higher education under 21st-century education reforms, the Double Reduction (Shuang Jian) policy was recently introduced by the government authorities as a measure to effectively reduce the education-related burden on Chinese families. This education policy focused specifically on reducing the amount of off-campus tutoring and in-school workload as well as great attention to students quality-oriented education. In addition, the paper will analyse the emerging challenges faced by this implementation of educational reform. On one hand, the government and educational institutions should shed light on the increasing burden on teachers and parents. On the other hand, the policy also gives rise to the potential deterioration of education equity through shadow education. By including relative research papers from wide interests, this analysis paper will take into consideration both qualitative and quantitative studies. The paper aims to discuss the background and status quo of the Double Reduction policy, focusing on the implications of the policy centred on the Chinese exam-oriented education environment and fierce competition in entrance examinations among Chinese schools.

Stochastic modeling of decarbonizing strategy, policy, and market-induced incentives for the US electricity sector

In line with the global pursuit of achieving net-zero carbon emissions, integrating carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable energy (RE) technologies is important in power production. This study evaluates the profitability of CCS and RE technologies as alternative ways of achieving climate change goals. While past research focused on costs, technological advancements, and capture methods, there is a need for more studies on assessing the financial feasibility of these climate change solutions under uncertain conditions, alongside specific performance goals and strategies to entice power producers. Using a comprehensive framework featuring deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches, this research explores the impact of policy and market incentives on CCS and RE investments within the U.S. power sector. It analyzes the interactions of variables such as market uncertainties, technical factors, and policy dynamics on the financial viability of adopting CCS and RE for targeted CO2 reductions. The results reveal that, given the status quo of policies, RE and CCS exhibit annualized net present values of $4.62 and $1.76, respectively, for each metric ton (MT) of CO2. Uncertainties in policy incentives emerge as a primary hindrance to achieving cost-effective carbon reduction mandates using CCS, while changes in the green electricity price premium cause high variability in RE returns. The study proposes a hypothetical market, featuring the sale of CCS-linked net-zero electricity at a distinctive premium price of $0.03/kWh. The study's findings underscore the importance of both policy and market incentives to enable power producers to deploy carbon management technologies at a large scale.

The role of the left to the path to a minimum income policy in Italy

ABSTRACT In 2018, Italy became the last of the E.U. member states to introduce a minimum income policy. Our work helps explain why Italy was a laggard in this field by investigating the role the Italian left played, historically, in the evolution of policies to combat poverty. This is a surprisingly neglected topic. We argue that until the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Italian left focused on labour-market insiders – that is, full-time core workers – and appeared largely unconcerned about the most vulnerable individuals, the outsiders, thus accepting the lack of policies to combat poverty. The policy status quo, however, dovetailed with a lively debate among left-wing intellectuals and politicians. This debate paved the way for several attempts by left-wing governments in the 1990s to implement a national pilot scheme (called the Reddito Minimo di Inserimento [R.M.I.]) along with local minimum income policies. The electoral success in 2013 of a new populist movement, the Five-star Movement (M.5.s.), campaigning on the flagship project of the Reddito di Cittadinanza (R.d.C.), fuelled the political debate on anti-poverty policies. This electoral ‘threat’ finally convinced the centre-left government under Paolo Gentiloni to establish in 2018 the Reddito di Inclusione, the first minimum income scheme in Italy. Our work demonstrates the importance of political variables, such as the structure and dynamics of party competition, in the fight against poverty. It also highlights the role of the Italian left as a political innovator in this field.

On the preferences for an environmentally friendly and fair energy transition: A stated choice experiment for Germany

Based on data from a stated choice experiment in Germany, this paper empirically examines individual preferences for several components of three hypothetical energy policy packages and the status quo policy package of the German energy transition. Our econometric analysis with mixed logit and latent class logit models reveals a high preference for higher targeted shares of renewable energies and for the nuclear phase-out. With respect to the allocation of energy policy costs, we find that the polluter-pays rule is significantly preferred over the ability-to-pay and equal-pay rules. Furthermore, citizens have a significantly positive preference for the financial support for low-income households. These results suggest a strong support for environmentally ambitious energy policy measures that are additionally associated with a fair burden sharing of the corresponding costs. In terms of preference heterogeneity, our empirical analysis reveals that political identification plays an important role for the preferences for environmentally ambitious energy policy measures. Furthermore, high equivalent income has a significantly negative effect on the preferences for the ability-to-pay rule, suggesting the relevance of economic self-interest. In addition, our empirical analysis reveals a strong relevance of trust (besides altruism and perceived unfair cost distribution) for the preferences for social cushioning. This result suggests that it is important for policymakers to convince the population that such social cushioning measures are actually implemented.

Foreign pressure and public opinion in target states

To influence states’ treatment of their citizens, various foreign actors deploy a broad array of tools, including moral suasion and material assistance. The efficacy of international pressure is often contingent on how publics in target states respond. Employing survey experiments, we examine how two common tools of external influence employed by other countries —verbal condemnation and the threat of aid withdrawal—affect public opinion in three Asian states that have been criticized for their human rights practices: Myanmar, Nepal, and Indonesia. Overall, we find that, in the face of such pressure, preference for the status quo policy becomes stronger among the supporters of incumbent governments in target states. In contrast, those who are not government partisans are more likely to support policy change for better human rights conditions. The latter, however, is the constituency less likely to exert influence on the government to revise its policy. Together, these findings point to the possibility that criticism and aid sanction threats employed by foreign countries will be ineffective or even counterproductive at least in the short run.

Pork versus Policy: Experimental Evidence on Majoritarian Bargaining with Real-World Consequences

Pork barrel politics has long attracted controversy; difficult to prove and vigorously denied by those accused of it, the practice is nevertheless defended by others who argue that pork facilitates compromise. We design a novel field-in-the-lab experiment to study how legislators bargain over pork and real-world policy. We first introduce a new incentivized method to measure subjects’ ideological peak preferences and attitudinal strength. Subjects then bargain over a two-dimensional agenda: a donation to a political interest group and the division of a sum of money. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that subjects trade off monetary and policy considerations. Subjects who are in the ideological majority and who prefer status quo policies extract better bargains, but minorities gain most from the possibility of compromise afforded by two dimensions. Finally, we show that artificially induced preferences fail to fully capture the bargaining dynamics observed using naturally occurring preferences.

Institutions and Political Restraint

AbstractRecent political developments worldwide have focused attention on the fraying of political norms, often understood as informal restraints on opportunistic behavior. We present a model to study how norms of restraint interact with institutional checks and balances. In the model, an election determines which party holds office in each period over an infinite horizon. Each period presents the majority party with an opportunity to modify a status quo policy. However, informal norms and formal institutional barriers limit its ability to do so by providing soft and hard constraints to policymaking, respectively. We show that political cooperation can be easier to sustain in political systems with fewer checks and balances, when political norms are sufficiently stringent. Under optimal norms, increasing polarization makes norms easier to uphold, while also reducing welfare. Finally, norms maintained by minority parties are less sustainable, and voter optimal norms require minority concessions to achieve greater electoral competitiveness.

Anchoring Political Preferences: The Psychological Foundations of Status Quo Bias and the Boundaries of Elite Manipulation

Public policy is often about numbers that affect people’s lives in fundamental ways. Given the central importance of numbers, we examine anchoring, a heuristic in which people are influenced by an initial number in expressing a preference. Across a series of experiments and three unique surveys, we find evidence of anchoring effects, but not uniformly so. In contrast to experiments in psychology and behavioral economics, we find no evidence that irrelevant or arbitrary anchors shape policy preferences. Yet, when provided politically relevant anchors that clearly correspond to the policy proposal, we find evidence of strong effects, even in the face of party cues or in the absence of a status quo policy point. Taken together, our results demonstrate that there is a psychological explanation for why the status quo occupies a powerful position in policy debates as well as why agenda setting is so influential.

The power of coalitions: lobbying success in US sanctions policy toward Iran from 2007 to 2016

This paper focuses on the role of interest groups in US sanctions policy toward Iran from 2007 to 2016. The aim of this work is to explain what changed in regard to the role of interest groups in the most significant shift in US-Iranian relations under President Barack Obama before and after the vote on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was intended to halt Iran’s non-peaceful nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions by the US Congress. This study contributes to our knowledge about how structural variables, issue salience, and actor strategies work together to produce outcomes. In addition, it provides a better understanding of interest group influence by identifying conditions under which interest groups can be successful in changing the policy status quo. This research proposes that the once firm stands of the Democrat legislators on supporting Iran sanctions changed due to support of President Obama’s strategy of engagement by Pro-Diplomacy groups and the international community, which he used as legislative subsidy. In addition, favorable policy windows opened up opportunities that pushed for diplomacy instead of confrontation.