Statistical Information Research Articles

Life history: Exploring the lives of women living with HIV and disability in vulnerable contexts regarding their food security

abstract Multiple disadvantages can heighten the risk of food insecurity for people. Unfortunately, when we do not interrogate the cycles that arise, they remain poorly understood and, thus, inadequately addressed. Through life history methodology, we investigated the lives of two women living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and disability to obtain a deeper understanding of their food security. The researchers were intermittently embedded within the community over four years and experienced many key events with the households. During this time, the lives of these women changed significantly, both because of the voluntary community intervention provided, and the shocks and stressors that impacted their lives. Three important themes developed in the analysis. Firstly, the women displayed resilience, which contributed to their food security. Notably, both women did not view their disabilities as disabling. Secondly, systemic failures not only limited food access but also compounded these women's food insecurity. Thirdly, the international measures taken to derive population statistics of food and nutrition security (FNS) can be wholly inadequate or incorrect. This can lead to traditional food security programmes not providing a sustainable solution. Therefore, statistical information needs to be supplemented by lived realities to ensure that the community and policy response can make a meaningful difference.

Students’ performance and typical errors in filling empty probabilistic visualizations with probabilities or frequencies

Abstract It has been established that, in Bayesian tasks, performance and typical errors in reading information from filled visualizations depend both on the type of the provided visualization and information format. However, apart from reading visualizations, students should also be able to create visualizations on their own and successfully use them as heuristic tools in modeling tasks. In this paper, we first want to broaden the view on Bayesian reasoning to probabilistic tasks with two binary events in general and embed the whole process of solving these tasks using probabilistic visualizations in a modified modeling framework. Thereby, it becomes apparent that most of the steps remained untouched by existing research. Second, in the present empirical study, we focused on one part of the largely unexplored creation process and examined entering statistical information into empty visualizations as heuristic tools. N = 172 participants had to enter conditional and joint probabilities or the corresponding frequencies into empty visualizations in a paper-and-pencil test. We analyze (a) students’ performance when entering information in visualizations and (b) typical errors, both dependent on the information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies), which empty visualization structure (2⨯2 table, double tree, net diagram) was provided, and type of information (conditional vs. joint information). The well-known positive effect of natural frequencies on participants’ performance was evident when entering conditional information into 2⨯2 tables and net diagrams. However, with respect to joint information, no superior effect of frequencies was observed. Furthermore, the theoretical implementation of our research in a modeling cycle allows us to identify desiderata for future research.

Peran Badan Pusat Statistik dalam Mendukung Literasi Data Dikalangan Mahasiswa

In the current era of rapid information development, data literacy has become an essential skill, particularly for students. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) plays a crucial role in enhancing data literacy among students by providing accurate and relevant statistical data and information. This study aims to explore BPS's contributions to supporting data literacy development in academic environments. Using a descriptive qualitative method, this research collects data through in-depth interviews, participatory observations, and document analysis to understand how students utilize statistical data in their studies. The findings indicate that BPS not only functions as a data provider but also acts as a catalyst for statistical education through various mentoring programs and collaborations with educational institutions. These programs include public lectures, workshops, and the establishment of "Statistical Corners," which offer direct access for students to receive guidance in understanding and utilizing data. Despite progress in statistical literacy, challenges remain, such as students' difficulties in critically evaluating information sources. This research also finds that direct interaction with statisticians can enhance students' confidence and analytical skills. With the increasing penetration of the internet and the use of social media, students need to be equipped with skills to access and effectively utilize information. Therefore, innovative approaches are required to improve understanding of information technology usage among students. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable insights for further developing strategies to enhance statistical literacy in academic settings, as well as reinforcing BPS's role as an active data provider in building human resource capacity in Indonesia.

Adaptive Robust Optimal Scheduling of Combined Heat and Power Microgrids Based on Photovoltaic Mechanism/Data Fusion-Driven Power Prediction

In order to effectively deal with the adverse effects of the randomness of photovoltaic output on the operation of combined heat and power (CHP) microgrids, this paper proposes an adaptive robust optimal scheduling strategy for CHP microgrids based on photovoltaic mechanism/data fusion-driven power prediction. Firstly, the mechanism of the clear sky radiation model is used to calculate the photovoltaic clear sky limit output and random output, and the latter is reorganized in different periods by using the idea of similar days. Then, the data-driven random prediction results are superimposed with the clear sky limit output, the photovoltaic mechanism/data fusion-driven power prediction model is established, and the fusion-driven power prediction framework is provided. Secondly, the boundary information of uncertain factors is deeply explored, and an adaptive robust uncertainty set considering the confidence interval of predictive error statistical information is constructed. On this basis, a robust optimization model of CHP microgrids with the lowest operating cost is proposed, and the optimization model is solved by column and constraint generation algorithm. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified through simulation examples and analytical calculations.

The State of poultry industry in Belarus at the present stage

According to analysts, due to increased consumer demand, from the beginning of the 21st century, poultry production will increase many times by 2030. The planned regulated economy of Belarus, strict adherence to technological norms and rules, uninterrupted supply of poultry with complete feed and high personal responsibility of labor collectives have made it possible to achieve high levels of egg and poultry meat production. The share of the meat market in Belarus is 39.0% owned by poultry products, which have displaced such industries as pig breeding, horse breeding and sheep breeding. With a relatively low number of farm birds of 49.9 million birds, it became possible to achieve the following high results. Meat production per capita in 2023 was 139 kg, with consumption of 101 kg, i.e. an additional 27.3% of meat was produced. At the same time, of the indicated volume, 54.5 kg is poultry meat. The annual overproduction of meat at the level of 20-30% allows us to have additional profits from its sale in markets near and far abroad. A similar situation is developing in egg poultry farming. Over the past year, the production of edible eggs per capita in Belarus amounted to 375 pieces, but their consumption does not exceed 272 pieces. Additional produced products in the amount of 27.5% were sold, first of all, to the market of the Russian Federation, and then to China and other countries. The selection of countries for poultry exports was primarily based on statistical information on per capita production levels. Thus, timely analysis of statistical information makes it possible to regulate investments and predict the profitability of the production of eggs and poultry meat and, if necessary, promptly provide producers with new sales markets without allowing excessive overproduction of livestock (poultry) products.

High-accuracy high-resolution measurements of fluorescence in manganese using extended-range high-energy-resolution fluorescence detection

The technique of extended-range high-energy-resolution fluorescence detection (XR-HERFD), developed from X-ray absorption spectroscopy, X-ray emission spectroscopy and resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS), has been used to successfully observe a new X-ray fluorescent satellite in manganese. The experimental methodology, spectral processing and analysis, and how statistical information and structure can be defined, extracted and used from HERFD spectra are detailed. Novel approaches to measure and improve accurate data uncertainty in XR-HERFD, HERFD and RIXS data sets are also presented. This includes definitions of intrinsic resolution and improvements to the resolution of the output and data by a factor of two relative to raw data or standard processing. Novel systematics common in HERFD and RIXS experiments are detailed, including background subtraction and elastic Bragg harmonics, with approaches to dealing with them.

The Role of Double-Zero-Event Studies in Evidence Synthesis: Evaluating Robustness Using the Fragility Index.

Zero-event counts are common in clinical studies, particularly when assessing rare adverse events. These occurrences can result from low event rates, short follow-up periods, and small sample sizes. When both intervention and control groups report zero events in a clinical trial, the study is referred to as a double-zero-event study, which presents methodological challenges for evidence synthesis. There has been ongoing debate about whether these studies should be excluded from evidence synthesis, as traditional two-stage meta-analysis methods may not estimate an effect size for them. Recent research suggests that these studies may still contain valuable clinical and statistical information. This study examines the role of double-zero-event studies from the perspective of the fragility index (FI), a popular metric for assessing the robustness of clinical results. We aim to determine how including or excluding double-zero-event studies affects FI derivations in meta-analyses. We conducted an illustrative case study to demonstrate how double-zero-event studies can impact FI derivations. Additionally, we performed a large-scale analysis of 12,184 Cochrane meta-analyses involving zero-event studies to assess the prevalence and effect of double-zero-event studies on FI calculations. Our analysis revealed that FI derivations in 6608 (54.2%) of these meta-analyses involved double-zero-event studies. Excluding double-zero-event studies could lead to artificially inflated FI values, potentially misrepresenting the results as more robust than they are. We advocate for retaining double-zero-event studies in meta-analyses and emphasise the importance of carefully considering their role in FI assessments. Including these studies ensures a more accurate evaluation of the robustness of clinical results in evidence synthesis.

Tools of the data detective: A review of statistical methods to detect data and result anomalies in psychology

In psychology, it is largely assumed that researchers collect real data and analyze them honestly—that is, it is assumed that data fabrication seldom occurs. While data fabrication is a rare phenomenon, estimates suggest that it occurs frequently enough to be a concern. To this end, statistical tools have been created to detect and deter data fabrication. Often, these tools either assess raw data, or assess summary statistical information. However, very few studies have attempted to review these tools, and of those that have, certain tools were excluded. The purpose of the present study was to review a collection of existing statistical tools to detect data fabrication, assess their strengths and limitations, and consider their place in psychological practice. The major strengths of the tools included their comprehensiveness and rigor, while their limitations were in their stringent criteria to run and in that they were impractical to implement.

An Agglomerative Clustering Combined with an Unsupervised Feature Selection Approach for Structural Health Monitoring

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is critical for ensuring the safety and longevity of structures, yet existing methodologies often face challenges such as high data dimensionality, lack of interpretability, and reliance on extensive label datasets. Current research in SHM has primarily focused on supervised approaches, which require significant manual effort for data labeling and are less adaptable to new environments. Additionally, the large volume of data generated from dynamic structural monitoring campaigns often includes irrelevant or redundant features, further complicating the analysis and reducing computational efficiency. This study addresses these issues by introducing an unsupervised learning approach for SHM, employing an agglomerative clustering model alongside an unsupervised feature selection technique utilizing box-plot statistics. The proposed method is assessed through raw acceleration signals obtained from four dynamic structural monitoring campaigns, including 44 features with temporal, statistical, and spectral information. In addition, these features are also evaluated in terms of their relevance, and the most important ones are selected for a new execution of the computational procedure. The proposed feature selection not only reduces data dimensionality but also enhances model interpretability, improving the clustering performance in terms of homogeneity, completeness, V-measure, and adjusted Rand score. The results obtained for the four analyzed cases provide clear insights into the patterns of behavior and structural anomalies.

Results of the Development of National Research Computer Network of Russia within the Framework of the National Project "Science and Universities" in 2021—2024

The paper presents and discusses the main results of work on the development of the National Research Computer Network of Russia (NIKS) performed within the framework of the national project "Science and Universities" in 2021-2024. The implemented activities are considered to eXpand the territorial accessibility and increase the throughput of the backbone infrastructure, ensure high-speed and reliable sectoral network connectivity, and connect the country's leading research and educational organizations of higher education to the network. The dynamics of development of the network backbone infrastructure, regional coverage, gradual increase in the number of connected organizations and some other statistical information about the user base are presented. Prospects and possible directions for further development of NIKS are discussed.

Statistical Manifolds and Information Geometry

Statistical Manifolds and Information Geometry

Content and quality of web-based health information for the prevention and prediction of food allergies in children: A systematic evaluation

Web-based health information can support health-related decisions if it is of high quality, i. e. accurate, understandable and barrier-free. Our study systematically searched for German-language, web-based health information on the prevention and prediction of food allergies in children and assessed their content and quality. In July 2022, four researchers conducted a systematic Google search for German-language web-based health information (HI) on the prediction and prevention of food allergies in children. They searched independently of each other with a predefined search algorithm. Two independent reviewers analyzed the data using qualitative and quantitative content analysis (step/analysis 1) and assessed the quality of HI (step/analysis 2) using a comprehensive criteria catalog (transparency, text design, content, language, presentation of frequencies and statistical information, visualization, and accessibility). The systematic search yielded 59 websites, which were provided by nine sectors. The most frequent sectors were "Health portals and expert opinions" and "Guidelines/scientific and medical specialized information" (22 % each). The content analysis (step 1) showed, among other things, that the topic of prediction was only implicitly addressed. 49 materials (83 %) contained guideline-compliant information. However, there were also 26 materials (44 %) whose content was not in line with the current S3 guideline on allergy prevention. Quality assessment (step 2) revealed that only a small number of the 43 HI received good or very good ratings regarding the transparency (n = 3, 7 %) and content (n = 9, 21 %) criteria. The criterion concerning frequencies and statistical information was rated good or very good quality in only 11 HI (26 %). Almost all HI met the quality criteria for language (n = 38, 88 %), text design (n = 43, 100 %), and visualization (n = 43, 100 %). None of the evaluated HI was given a good or very good rating in terms of accessibility criteria. The analysis by sector revealed only minor differences (Mean of the seven criteria: 56-69 %). The quality of the available web-based health information on the prevention and prediction of food allergies in children is highly heterogeneous. There is need for improvement in terms of accessibility, content (e. g., selective presentation of prevention measures), and transparency (e. g., missing details of contacts). Further research is needed for expanding the user perspective and analyzing social media in the context of prediction and prevention of food allergies in children.

Modeling of the processes of functioning of an organizational and technical system based on Markov random processes

Objective. In this paper, the main approaches to modeling the processes of functioning of the organizational and technical system, in particular the processes of maintenance and repair (MRO) of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST) by repair units of the operating organization (EO) using a mathematical model of Markov random processes, which will allow to evaluate the probabilistic characteristics of MRO processes of the VVST at carrying out activities of daily activities, which consist in carrying out work to restore the serviceability of the VST, as well as carrying out maintenance and operation of the OTS. Method. The modeling of processes is based on probabilistic models, in particular, the theory of random processes. Result. The use of a mathematical model of Markov random processes is justified. A graph of the states of the processes for maintenance and repair of VVST has been developed. A decision support system based on PTC Mathcad Prime has been implemented. The averaged generalized statistical information on the reliability of the VST was used as the initial modeling parameters in the work. Conclusion. The results obtained will make it possible to restore the serviceability and operability of the military-industrial complex both at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex and in the conditions of the operating organization without going beyond the time limits established in the regulatory and technical regulations. The considered approaches to modeling the processes of functioning of an organizational and technical system are a powerful tool for making informed and effective management decisions, they allow you to take into account many factors, conduct scenario analysis and optimize solutions, as well as use computers for more accurate and complex calculations.

The Multivariate Fusion Distribution Characteristics in Physician Demand Prediction

Aiming at the optimization of the big data infrastructure in China’s healthcare system, this study proposes a lightweight time series physician demand prediction model, which is especially suitable for the field of telemedicine. The model incorporates multi-head attention mechanisms and generates statistical information, which significantly improves the ability to process nonlinear data, adapt to different data sources, improve the computational efficiency, and process high-dimensional features. By combining variational autoencoders and LSTM units, the model can effectively capture complex nonlinear relationships and long-term dependencies, and the multi-head attention mechanism overcomes the limitations of traditional algorithms. This lightweight architecture design not only improves the computational efficiency but also enhances the stability in high-dimensional data processing and reduces feature redundancy by combining the normalization process with statistics. The experimental results show that the model has wide applicability and excellent performance in a telemedicine consulting service system.

Hybrid Models of Atmospheric Block Columns of Primary Oil Refining Unit Under Conditions of Initial Information Deficiency

Hybrid Models of Atmospheric Block Columns of Primary Oil Refining Unit Under Conditions of Initial Information Deficiency

Severe Maternal Morbidity Among Pregnant People With Opioid Use Disorder Enrolled in Medicaid

Pregnant people with opioid use disorder (OUD) are at high risk for potentially avoidable maternal morbidity. The majority of pregnant people with OUD receive health insurance through state Medicaid programs, but there is little comprehensive data on the burden of severe maternal morbidity (SMM)-a composite measure of adverse maternal health outcomes-among this high-risk group. To estimate rates of SMM among Medicaid-enrolled pregnant people with OUD from 2016 to 2018. Using the Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System Analytic Files, this cross-sectional study identified 96 309 pregnant people with OUD enrolled in Medicaid in 47 states with 108 975 deliveries between March 1, 2016, and November 16, 2018. Data were analyzed from August 1, 2023, to September 1, 2024. SMM was identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnosis and procedure codes for 20 relevant conditions and was measured per 10 000 live births nationally and by state. Rates of SMM were also stratified by the timing of Medicaid enrollment before delivery. From 2016 to 2018, 96 309 Medicaid enrollees had a diagnosis of OUD before a live birth (108 975 deliveries). The mean (SD) age of Medicaid-enrolled pregnant people with OUD was 28.8 (5.0) years. The mean (SD) rate of OUD among pregnant people enrolled in Medicaid was 324.8 (260.9) per 10 000 live births across states. Among this group, the mean (SD) unadjusted rate of SMM excluding blood transfusions among those with OUD was 292.1 (112.3) per 10 000 live births, with these rates varying substantially across states, from 101.0 per 10 000 live births in South Dakota to 682.2 per 10 000 live births in California. Adjustment for enrollee characteristics and comorbidities did not meaningfully alter the estimated rate of SMM (305.6 [95% CI, 245.2-408.2] per 10 000 live births). Rates of SMM generally increased with decreased durations of Medicaid enrollment. This cross-sectional study of pregnant people enrolled in Medicaid found that the rate of OUD among this group was more than twice as high as previous estimates. Pregnant people with OUD face a disproportionately high risk of SMM, particularly those who enroll in Medicaid later in pregnancy. Targeted interventions that facilitate early Medicaid enrollment and coverage continuity may be needed to reduce the burden of adverse outcomes in this group.

The migration aspect of rural population behavior as an element of demographic behavior modeling

The article discusses the construction of a model for demographic behavior, in particular its structural element, migration behavior. According to the author, rural depopulation has many consequences, including a decrease in the labour resources, deterioration of rural infrastructure and, ultimately, exacerbation of economic problems. Anti-crisis measures aimed at the development of rural areas require close attention to changing the model of demographic behavior of rural residents, including its migration aspect. The article examines the migration behavior of rural residents of the Central Black Earth Economic Region, drawing on Federal State Statistics Service data on rural migration in the region, as well as on 2021–2024 sociological studies on key factors and trends in socio-demographic development. Analysis of statistical information on rural migration in Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Lipetsk, and Tambov regions does not provide a stable trend, since the time factor is not decisive. In the current situation, survey methods provide more accurate information highlighting migration sentiments, readiness, and activity of the rural population. The results of sociological diagnostics were used to substantiate a number of trends in the migration behavior of rural residents.

Implementation of the HIV/AIDS Program in Ukraine. The Need for Urgent Decisive Action During the War (Review)

According to official estimates, 245 thousand people with HIV-positive status lived in Ukraine at the beginning of 2022. For some of them, the provision of further treatment was threatened by the full-scale Russian aggression, which created critical challenges in the effective response to HIV/AIDS. The provision of the entire range of prevention and treatment services has become much more complicated. This was most felt by patients in the southern and eastern regions of the country. The negative consequences, as well as the full restoration of services to the population in the context of the HIV epidemic, have become uneven due to the significant activity of hostilities, the consequences of the destruction of medical infrastructure, forced mass migration of the population, and imperfect monitoring of internally displaced persons with HIV-positive status. The HIV epidemic in Ukraine is and will remain a significant problem on a national scale for a long time, which significantly complicates the positive forecasting of its further development and the desired strategies for overcoming it. Objective — to evaluate and substantiate integrated ways of implementing monitoring, modern diagnostics and principles of HIV treatment and prevention as the basis of the strategy for overcoming the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine with international humanitarian aid. Materials and methods. Numerous documents of international policy in the field of health care and public health are analyzed; recent changes in the documents of the state policy in the field of health care of Ukraine; international strategies and approaches to overcoming the HIV epidemic; dynamics of the incidence of skin and venereal diseases in Ukraine; forecasting the monitoring of probable national and global HIV epidemics in the coming years. Results and discussion. Based on the study of recent statistical and professional scientific information, the key areas of further strengthening of the monitoring-control system and real assessment of the state of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine, as well as the desired optimization of preventive measures and specific treatment in the conditions of full-scale martial law in Ukraine, are analyzed. Conclusions. The forced mass displacement of Ukrainians partly contributed to a better understanding of the urgent need to increase HIV diagnosis in the EU/EEA countries in 2022—2024, emphasizing the importance of timely prevention, rapid testing and care for already identified HIV carriers. If not the complete overcoming of HIV infection as a real threat to public health, it is one of the pressing tasks of the Ukrainian health care system for quite a long time. Ukraine is now one of the countries where the incidence of HIV infection continues to grow continues to increase and the mortality rate due to AIDS continues to increase. This necessitates urgent revision by specialists of a number of regulatory and me­thodological state documents based on the principles of evidence-based medicine and WHO ­recommendations, their maximum adaptation to the current emergency situation, the development of new effective surgical approaches and clinical routes that will guarantee the timely receipt of full-fledged comprehensive professional medical services and ART by HIV-positive patients, pregnant women and children born to HIV-positive women. Aligning national standards in strict compliance with the best international practices in the field of combating HIV infection will contribute to a significant increase in the effectiveness of such a fight and will serve as a solid foundation for future efforts to overcome the HIV epidemic in Ukraine and a noticeable prolongation of the life of HIV-infected citizens of our country.

Влияние психологических факторов на исход лечения у пациентов межрегионального клинико-диагностического центра.

According to the World Health Organization and official statistical information of the Russian Federation, the increase in the incidence of diseases of the circulatory system and its consequences is a problem that has not lost its relevance for many years. Currently, modern scientific literature provides convincing evidence of the influence of a number of social and psychological factors on the occurrence of diseases of the circulatory system, including social isolation, lack of social support, low social status and economic problems. In this regard, the State Autonomous Institution “Interregional Clinical Diagnostic Center” conducted a study in the departments of cardiac surgery and cardiology, the purpose of which was to assess the potential risks of the negative impact of psychological factors on the outcome of treatment in patients with diseases of the circulatory system. The study involved 100 people, different in gender and age. The assessment was carried out using psychodiagnostic techniques and based on laboratory research data. As a result of the study, hospitalization has a predominantly neutral or positive effect on the state of stress, depression and anxiety in patients. To reduce the risks of the negative impact of psychological factors such as stress, anxiety and depression, it is recommended to provide psychological support for patients with low and moderate levels of stress, and psychological assistance for patients with high levels of stress and anxiety.

Methodology for assessing the state of transport services for the population of the subject of the Russian Federation on the example of the Omsk region

Introduction. Within the framework of the transformation of the passenger transportation industry of the Russian Federation, the relevance of assessing the current state of the public transport service system in the subjects of the Russian Federation is determined on the basis of the parameters laid down in current and prospective regulatory legal acts.Materials and Methods. The research uses current regulatory legal acts of the federal and regional levels in the field of public transport services, data from the administrative-territorial division of the subject of the Russian Federation, current registers of inter-municipal and municipal routes, up-to-date statistical information on the population. The following research methods were used: analysis, survey, formalization.Results. The research presents a methodology developed by the authors for rapid assessment of the current state of the public transport service system in the subject of the Russian Federation, including an algorithm for its application. The methodology is based on the assessment of six criteria, which are aggregated indicators of the parameters of public transport services in the areas of accessibility, safety, reliability and comfort. The results of the testing of the technique in the Omsk region are presented.Discussion and conclusions. The results obtained allow us to identify problem areas for which it is necessary to develop and implement measures to improve the quality of public transport services in the short term. The proposed methodology is not a substitute for the methods approved by the current regulatory legal acts, and can be used at the initial stage of development and updating of transport planning documents of the subject of the Russian Federation.