Comparison Of Statistical Models Research Articles

Sexual dimorphism of the humerus bones in a French sample: comparison of several statistical models including machine learning models.

Sex estimation is an important part of skeletal analysis and forensic identification. Traditionally pelvic traits are utilized for accurate sex estimation. However, the long bones, especially humerus, have been proved to be as effective for determine the sex of the individual.The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of seven statistical modelling techniques including classical statistical methods and machine learning algorithms, to assess the sexual dimorphism of humerus on a French sample based on a metric analysis of 26 measurements. A total of 98 humeral bones (divided in two samples) were measured. Seven statistical models were compared: Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Regularized Discriminant Analysis (RDA), Penalized Logistic Regression (PLR), Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF).With cross validation, classification accuracy was greater than 90% (ranges between 92% and 98%) for all models without variable selection methods. The simplification of the models has improved the accuracy between 98% and 100% and also a reduction of the number of variables to 6 or less. Penalized logistic regression (PLR), Random Forest (RF) and Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were the best accuracy models.The measurements made at the proximal part of the humerus (WTT, CSD), at distal part (BEW, WT, MAW, THT) and of the entire bone (PLCT) stand out among the various models.The present study suggests that the humerus is an interesting alternative for sex estimation and that non-classical statistical models can provide a new approach.

Modeling the prompt in inference judgment tasks

We show that when analyzing data from inference judgment tasks, it can be important to incorporate into one's data analysis regime an explicit representation of the semantics of the natural language prompt used to guide participants on the task. To demonstrate this, we conduct two experiments within an existing experimental paradigm focused on measuring factive inferences, while manipulating the prompt participants receive in small but semantically potent ways. In statistical model comparisons couched within the framework of probabilistic dynamic semantics, we find that probabilistic models structured, in part, by the semantics of the prompt fit better to data collected using that prompt than models that ignore the semantics of the prompt.

Forecasting Potato Prices in Agra: Comparison of Linear Time Series Statistical vs. Neural Network Models

Forecasting Potato Prices in Agra: Comparison of Linear Time Series Statistical vs. Neural Network Models

Statistical comparison of models and machine learning for predicting Arrhenius parameters in ternary liquid mixtures

Statistical comparison of models and machine learning for predicting Arrhenius parameters in ternary liquid mixtures

A Comparison of Statistical and Machine Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction

A Comparison of Statistical and Machine Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction

A comparison of statistical and machine learning models for spatio-temporal prediction of ambient air pollutant concentrations in Scotland

The spatio-temporal prediction of air pollutant concentrations is vital for assessing regulatory compliance and for producing exposure estimates in epidemiological studies. Numerous approaches have been utilised for making such predictions, including land use regression models, additive models, spatio-temporal smoothing models and machine learning prediction algorithms. However, relatively few studies have compared the predictive performance of these models thoroughly, which is one of the novel contributions of this paper. For the specific challenge of predicting monthly average concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 in Scotland, we find that random forests typically outperform (or are as good as) more traditional statistical prediction approaches. Additionally, we utilise the best performing model to provide a new data resource, namely, predictions of monthly average concentrations (with uncertainty quantification) of the above pollutants on a regular 1 km2 grid for all of Scotland between 2016 and 2020.

The associations between exposure to mixed environmental endocrine disruptors and sex steroid hormones in men: a comparison of different statistical models

In recent years, worldwide fertility rates have continued to decrease. Humans are frequently exposed to a combination of environmental endocrine disruptors, which can cause male reproductive disorders. The study employed three distinct analytical models to examine the correlation between exposure to a combination of 25 chemicals and sex steroid hormone levels in adult males. This involved evaluating 12 chemicals and their metabolites from personal care and consumer products, as well as 13 metabolites linked to phthalates and plasticisers. The study analysed 25 chemicals and 3 measured sex steroid hormone outcomes, as well as two calculated hormonal outcomes (free androgen index, TT/E2 ratio) in 1262 adult men who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013–2016 in the United States. The study employed several statistical methods to estimate the relationships between single chemicals or chemical blends and sex hormones. These methods included linear regression, weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression, and Bayesian kernel machine (BKMR) regression. The results of the linear regression analysis indicate that chemical exposure has a negative correlation with E2, TT, and FAI, and a positive correlation with SHBG and TT/E2. The mixture effect analyses using the WQS and BKMR models further confirmed that BP3, MECPP, and MECOP were the most highly weighted chemical mixtures. The analyses also suggested that there were differences in the effects of different concentrations of EDCs on sex steroid hormones. Exposure to environmental endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) has been found to have a negative correlation with estradiol and total testosterone, as well as FAI. Conversely, this exposure has been found to have a positive correlation with sex hormone binding globulin and the TT/E2 ratio. The study also revealed differences in the effects of different concentrations of EDCs.

Statistical Model Comparison for the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Stock Price Prediction

The stock market is one of the most versatile sectors in the financial system, and the stock market plays an important role in economic development. It is also a platform for trading various securities and derivatives without barriers. This paper focuses on the comparison of different types of time series models to predict the stock prices of five companies by using machine learning techniques.

The Multicollinearity Effect on the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms: Case Examples in Healthcare Modelling

Background: The data extracted from various fields inherently consists of extremely correlated measurements in parallel with the exponential increase in the size of the data that need to be interpreted owing to the technological advances. This problem, called the multicollinearity, influences the performance of both statistical and machine learning algorithms. Statistical models proposed as a potential remedy to this problem have not been sufficiently evaluated in the literature. Therefore, a comprehensive comparison of statistical and machine learning models is required for addressing the multicollinearity problem. Methods: Statistical models (including Ridge, Liu, Lasso and Elastic Net regression) and the eight most important machine learning algorithms (including Cart, Knn, Mlp, MARS, Cubist, Svm, Bagging and XGBoost) are comprehensively compared by using two different healthcare datasets (including Body Fat and Cancer) having multicollinearity problem. The performance of the models is assessed through cross validation methods via root mean square error, mean absolute error and r-squared criteria. Results: The results of the study revealed that statistical models outperformed machine learning models in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute error and r-squared criteria in both training and testing performance. Particularly the Liu regression often achieved better relative performance (up to 7.60% to 46.08% for Body Fat data set and up to 1.55% to 21.53% for Cancer data set on training performance and up to 1.56% to 38.08% for Body Fat data set and up to 3.50% to 23.29% for Cancer data set on testing performance) among regression methods as well as compared to machine algorithms. Conclusions: Liu regression is mostly disregarded in the machine learning literature, but since it outperforms the most powerful and widely used machine learning algorithms, it appears to be a promising tool in almost all fields, especially for regression-based studies including data with multicollinearity problem.

Statistical Comparison of Time Series Models for Forecasting Brazilian Monthly Energy Demand Using Economic, Industrial, and Climatic Exogenous Variables

Energy demand forecasting is crucial for effective resource management within the energy sector and is aligned with the objectives of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). This study undertakes a comparative analysis of different forecasting models to predict future energy demand trends in Brazil, improve forecasting methodologies, and achieve sustainable development goals. The evaluation encompasses the following models: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Exogenous SARIMA (SARIMAX), Facebook Prophet (FB Prophet), Holt–Winters, Trigonometric Seasonality Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal components (TBATS), and draws attention to their respective strengths and limitations. Its findings reveal unique capabilities among the models, with SARIMA excelling in tracing seasonal patterns, FB Prophet demonstrating its potential applicability across various sectors, Holt–Winters adept at managing seasonal fluctuations, and TBATS offering flexibility albeit requiring significant data inputs. Additionally, the investigation explores the effect of external factors on energy consumption, by establishing connections through the Granger causality test and conducting correlation analyses. The accuracy of these models is assessed with and without exogenous variables, categorized as economical, industrial, and climatic. Ultimately, this investigation seeks to add to the body of knowledge on energy demand prediction, as well as to allow informed decision-making in sustainable energy planning and policymaking and, thus, make rapid progress toward SDG7 and its associated targets. This paper concludes that, although FB Prophet achieves the best accuracy, SARIMA is the most fit model, considering the residual autocorrelation, and it predicts that Brazil will demand approximately 70,000 GWh in 2033.

Personality Measurement of Students Using Item Response Theory Models: Stability Responses from Nigerian Institutions

Item Response Theory (IRT) is utilised to detect bias in assessment tools and address issues such as faked or manipulated responses, enhancing the reliability and stability of conclusions in personality assessment. This article examines the item parameter estimates of a scale and the effectiveness of one-, two-, and three-parameter logistic models in analysing response stability in personality measurement from repeated administration. Three hundred undergraduate students at three tertiary institutions in Nigeria were sampled using a multi-stage sampling procedure. Data was collected using an adapted version of the Big Five Inventory (BFI) with a reliability coefficient of 0.85. The results showed that the item parameter estimates (mean threshold) are within the recommended benchmarks. A comparison of the three IRT models based on the Likelihood ratio (InL), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values revealed that the two-parameter logistic model best fit the personality data among undergraduates from repeated administration. It is recommended that, rather than relying solely on a statistical decision-making process, IRT fit and model comparison should be applied to gain insight into the functioning of items and tests.

Forecasting and Comparison of Nonlinear Statistical Growth Models for Fish Seed Production in Eastern Coastal States of India

The study was carried out to compare the goodness of fit of three non–linear growth models viz., Monomolecular, Logistic and Gompertz growth models and analysing the instability index among the collected fish seed Production data from the eastern costal states of Indian for the period from 1994–1995 to 2019–2020. The parameters of each model were estimated using Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) iterative method. The ‘independence’ and ‘normality’ of error terms were examined by using ‘Run–test’ and ‘Shapiro–Wilk test’. Among the three models tested, monomolecular model was found as best model to describe variation in fish seed production in all Eastern Costal States of India. The values of CDI for fish seed production were 146.94 %, 79.30 % and 63.41% respectively which revealed that fish seed production had high instability in Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh while low instability (14.93 % and 13.13%) in West Bengal and India.

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Comparison of statistical low-frequency earthquake activity models

Slow earthquakes are slow fault slip events. Quantifying and monitoring slow earthquake activity characteristics are important, because they may change before large earthquakes occur. Statistical seismicity models are useful for quantifying seismicity characteristics. However, no standard statistical model exists for slow earthquake activity. This study used a high-quality catalog of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), a type of slow earthquake, in the Nankai subduction zone from April 2004 to August 2015 and conducted the first comparison of existing statistical LFE activity models to determine which model better describes LFE activity. Based on this comparison, this study proposes a new hybrid model that incorporates existing model features. The new model considers the LFE activity history in a manner similar to the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and represents the LFE aftershock rate (subsequent LFE occurrence rate) with a small number of model parameters, as in the Omori–Utsu aftershock law for regular earthquakes. The results show that the proposed model outperforms other existing models. However, the new model cannot reproduce a feature of LFE activity: the sudden cessation of intense LFE bursts. This is because the new model superimposes multiple aftershock activities and predicts extremely high seismicity rates during and after the LFE bursts. I suggest that reproducing and successfully predicting the sudden cessation of intense LFE bursts is critical for the further improvement of statistical LFE activity models. In addition, the empirical equations formulated in this study for the LFE aftershock rates may be useful for future statistical and physical modeling of LFE activity.Graphical

Predicting airborne ascospores of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum through machine learning and statistical methods

AbstractA main biological constraint of dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) production in Canada is white mould, caused by the fungal pathogen Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. The primary infectious propagules of S. sclerotiorum are airborne ascospores and monitoring the air for inoculum levels could help predict the severity of white mould in bean fields. Daily air samples were collected in commercial dry bean fields in Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario and ascospores were quantified using quantitative PCR. Daily weather data was obtained from in‐field weather stations. The number of ascospores on a given day was modelled using 63 different environmental variables and several modelling methods, both regression and classification approaches, were implemented with machine learning (ML) (random forests, logistic regression and support vector machines) and statistical (generalized linear models) approaches. Across all years and provinces, ascospores were most highly correlated with ascospore release from the previous day (r ranged from 0.15 to 0.6). This variable was also the only variable included in all models and had the greatest weight in all models. Models without this variable had much poorer performance than those with it. Correlations of ascospores with other environmental variables varied by province and sometimes by year. A comparison of ML and statistical models revealed that they both performed similarly, but that the statistical models were easier to interpret. However, the precise relationship between airborne ascospore levels and in‐field disease severity remains unclear, and spore sampling methods will require further development before they can be deployed as a disease management tool.

Strong Prediction: Language Model Surprisal Explains Multiple N400 Effects.

Theoretical accounts of the N400 are divided as to whether the amplitude of the N400 response to a stimulus reflects the extent to which the stimulus was predicted, the extent to which the stimulus is semantically similar to its preceding context, or both. We use state-of-the-art machine learning tools to investigate which of these three accounts is best supported by the evidence. GPT-3, a neural language model trained to compute the conditional probability of any word based on the words that precede it, was used to operationalize contextual predictability. In particular, we used an information-theoretic construct known as surprisal (the negative logarithm of the conditional probability). Contextual semantic similarity was operationalized by using two high-quality co-occurrence-derived vector-based meaning representations for words: GloVe and fastText. The cosine between the vector representation of the sentence frame and final word was used to derive contextual cosine similarity estimates. A series of regression models were constructed, where these variables, along with cloze probability and plausibility ratings, were used to predict single trial N400 amplitudes recorded from healthy adults as they read sentences whose final word varied in its predictability, plausibility, and semantic relationship to the likeliest sentence completion. Statistical model comparison indicated GPT-3 surprisal provided the best account of N400 amplitude and suggested that apparently disparate N400 effects of expectancy, plausibility, and contextual semantic similarity can be reduced to variation in the predictability of words. The results are argued to support predictive coding in the human language network.

Comparison of statistical models for individual’s ability index and ranking

ABSTRACT Economic efficiency demands accurate assessment of individual ability for selection purposes. This study investigates Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Item Response Theory (IRT) for estimating true ability and ranking individuals. Two Monte Carlo simulations and real data analyses were conducted. Results suggest a slight advantage for IRT, but ability estimates from both methods were highly correlated (r=0.95), indicating similar outcomes. The Logistic two-parameter IRT model emerged as the most reliable and rigorous approach.

Statistical analysis and comparison of deep convolutional neural network models for the identification and classification of maize leaf diseases

Statistical analysis and comparison of deep convolutional neural network models for the identification and classification of maize leaf diseases

Predicting Incident Dementia in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease: Comparison of Machine Learning and Traditional Statistical Models

Predicting Incident Dementia in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease: Comparison of Machine Learning and Traditional Statistical Models

Bayesian hybrid index and genomic cline estimation with the R package gghybrid.

Admixture, the interbreeding of individuals from differentiated source populations, is now known to be a widespread phenomenon. Genomic studies of natural hybridisation can help to answer many questions on the impacts of admixture on adaptive evolution, reproductive isolation, and speciation. When a large variety of admixture proportions between two source populations exist, both geographic and genomic cline analysis are suitable methods for inferring biased, restricted or excessive gene flow at individual loci into the foreign genomic background, providing evidence for reproductive isolation, selection across an environmental transition, balancing selection, and adaptive introgression. Genomic cline analysis replaces geographic location with genome-wide hybrid index and is therefore useable in circumstances that violate geographic cline assumptions. Here, I introduce gghybrid, an R package for simple and flexible Bayesian estimation of Buerkle's hybrid index and Fitzpatrick's logit-logistic genomic clines using bi-allelic data, suitable for both small and large datasets. gghybrid allows any ploidy and uses Structure input file format. It has separate functions for hybrid index and cline estimation, treating each individual and locus respectively as an independent analysis, making it highly parallelisable. Admixture proportions from other software can alternatively be used in cline analysis, alongside parental allele frequencies. Parameters can be fixed and samples pooled for statistical model comparison with AIC or waic. Here, I describe the functions, pipeline, and statistical properties of gghybrid. Simulations reveal that model comparison with waic is preferred, and use of Bayesian posterior distributions and p values to select candidate non-null loci is problematic and should be avoided.