Statistical Modeling Approach Research Articles

Estimating the prevalence of terrorism under control policies. A statistical modelling approach

Measuring the intensity of the prevalence of radicalization plays a vital role in countering violent extremism. Hence, several mathematical models have been proposed aiming to describe the complex dynamics of this social phenomenon. It should be noted that existing literature mainly includes deterministic compartmental models, while the measuring of the extremism's intensity is based on the basic reproduction number R0. However, deterministic approaches can only provide an estimation of the mean tendency of the phenomenon, while the R0 index is accompanied by several drawbacks. In this paper, we propose a new compartmental scheme which considers control policies, containing susceptible, resistant, extremist and under-rehabilitation cases. The aforementioned model is combined with the methodology of continuous time Markov processes, leading to the quantification of not just the mean trend but the uncertainty of the phenomenon, too. Moreover, we introduce two new stochastic descriptors for the assessment of the radicalization's severity, namely the exact (Rε) and aggregate (Ra) reproduction numbers that address the limitation of the widely used R0 index. Emphasis is placed on the presentation of theorems and algorithms that describe the computation of their complete distribution functions. We derive formulas for the calculation of elasticities, and perform a perturbation analysis, shedding light on the overall impact of system's parameters on the selected stochastic descriptors. A series of illustrative examples is presented for the illustration of the derived theoretical properties, along with numerical comparisons between the three reproduction numbers. Finally, based on the proposed measures, we pinpoint the most impactful factors, and discuss control policies that facilitate the effective combating of the negative repercussions of terrorism.

Estimating the mean in the space of ranked phylogenetic trees.

Reconstructing evolutionary histories of biological entities, such as genes, cells, organisms, populations, and species, from phenotypic and molecular sequencing data is central to many biological, palaeontological, and biomedical disciplines. Typically, due to uncertainties and incompleteness in data, the true evolutionary history (phylogeny) is challenging to estimate. Statistical modelling approaches address this problem by introducing and studying probability distributions over all possible evolutionary histories, but can also introduce uncertainties due to misspecification. In practice, computational methods are deployed to learn those distributions typically by sampling them. This approach, however, is fundamentally challenging as it requires designing and implementing various statistical methods over a space of phylogenetic trees (or treespace). Although the problem of developing statistics over a treespace has received substantial attention in the literature and numerous breakthroughs have been made, it remains largely unsolved. The challenge of solving this problem is 2-fold: a treespace has nontrivial often counter-intuitive geometry implying that much of classical Euclidean statistics does not immediately apply; many parametrizations of treespace with promising statistical properties are computationally hard, so they cannot be used in data analyses. As a result, there is no single conventional method for estimating even the most fundamental statistics over any treespace, such as mean and variance, and various heuristics are used in practice. Despite the existence of numerous tree summary methods to approximate means of probability distributions over a treespace based on its geometry, and the theoretical promise of this idea, none of the attempts resulted in a practical method for summarizing tree samples. In this paper, we present a tree summary method along with useful properties of our chosen treespace while focusing on its impact on phylogenetic analyses of real datasets. We perform an extensive benchmark study and demonstrate that our method outperforms currently most popular methods with respect to a number of important 'quality' statistics. Further, we apply our method to three empirical datasets ranging from cancer evolution to linguistics and find novel insights into corresponding evolutionary problems in all of them. We hence conclude that this treespace is a promising candidate to serve as a foundation for developing statistics over phylogenetic trees analytically, as well as new computational tools for evolutionary data analyses. An implementation is available at https://github.com/bioDS/Centroid-Code.

Practical applications of soil microbiota to improve ecosystem restoration: current knowledge and future directions.

Soil microbiota are important components of healthy ecosystems. Greater consideration of soil microbiota in the restoration of biodiverse, functional, and resilient ecosystems is required to address the twin global crises of biodiversity decline and climate change. In this review, we discuss available and emerging practical applications of soil microbiota into (i) restoration planning, (ii) direct interventions for shaping soil biodiversity, and (iii) strategies for monitoring and predicting restoration trajectories. We show how better planning of restoration activities to account for soil microbiota can help improve progress towards restoration targets. We show how planning to embed soil microbiota experiments into restoration projects will permit a more rigorous assessment of the effectiveness of different restoration methods, especially when complemented by statistical modelling approaches that capitalise on existing data sets to improve causal understandings and prioritise research strategies where appropriate. In addition to recovering belowground microbiota, restoration strategies that include soil microbiota can improve the resilience of whole ecosystems. Fundamentally, restoration planning should identify appropriate reference target ecosystem attributes and - from the perspective of soil microbiota - comprehensibly consider potential physical, chemical and biological influences on recovery. We identify that inoculating ecologically appropriate soil microbiota into degraded environments can support a range of restoration interventions (e.g. targeted, broad-spectrum and cultured inoculations) with promising results. Such inoculations however are currently underutilised and knowledge gaps persist surrounding successful establishment in light of community dynamics, including priority effects and community coalescence. We show how the ecological trajectories of restoration sites can be assessed by characterising microbial diversity, composition, and functions in the soil. Ultimately, we highlight practical ways to apply the soil microbiota toolbox across the planning, intervention, and monitoring stages of ecosystem restoration and address persistent open questions at each stage. With continued collaborations between researchers and practitioners to address knowledge gaps, these approaches can improve current restoration practices and ecological outcomes.

Leveraging 3D Atrial Geometry for the Evaluation of Atrial Fibrillation: A Comprehensive Review.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Managing risk of stroke and AF burden are pillars of AF management. Atrial geometry has long been recognized as a useful measure in achieving these goals. However, traditional diagnostic approaches often overlook the complex spatial dynamics of the atria. This review explores the emerging role of three-dimensional (3D) atrial geometry in the evaluation and management of AF. Advancements in imaging technologies and computational modeling have enabled detailed reconstructions of atrial anatomy, providing insights into the pathophysiology of AF that were previously unattainable. We examine current methodologies for interpreting 3D atrial data, including qualitative, basic quantitative, global quantitative, and statistical shape modeling approaches. We discuss their integration into clinical practice, highlighting potential benefits such as personalized treatment strategies, improved outcome prediction, and informed treatment approaches. Additionally, we discuss the challenges and limitations associated with current approaches, including technical constraints and variable interpretations, and propose future directions for research and clinical applications. This comprehensive review underscores the transformative potential of leveraging 3D atrial geometry in the evaluation and management of AF, advocating for its broader adoption in clinical practice.

Application of Bayesian Decision Analysis to Estimate Occupational Noise Levels from Limited Exposure Data

In recent years, Bayesian statistical modeling approaches have emerged as valuable tools in Industrial Hygiene (IH), particularly in situations with limited exposure data. This paper delves into the application of Bayesian Statistical Models, specifically Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA), to analyze occupational noise exposure data within two Similar Exposure Groups (SEGs) of groundskeeping workers, addressing the pervasive issue of high noise levels exceeding 85 dBA. The primary aim is to estimate exposure levels based on the location of the exposure profiles for the SEGs within the AIHA® Exposure Control Categories (ECCs) 0-4, later modified and expanded to AIHA-ECC 0-5. This study employs BDA to estimate noise exposures among groundskeepers, emphasizing the scarcity of literature on BDA in noise exposure rating. Groundskeepers, facing potential risk of hearing impairment due to prolonged exposure, constitute a crucial and critical demographic, with nearly one million individuals in the United States alone. Noise data from the two SEGs was analyzed by using the Exposure Assessment Strategies Committee—EASC- AIHA® IHData Analyst for BDA modeling, complemented with the AIHA IHSTAT™ for certainty rating. The resulting posterior graphs were utilized to categorize exposure profiles into respective AIHA ECCs relative to noise OEL. These findings provide valuable insights, indicating a posterior probability of approximately 43.5% and 56.5% with 95% confidence that noise exposure levels fall within AIHA ECC 3 and AIHA ECC 4, respectively. However, while the 95% percentile decision statistics suggest exposure values lower than the OEL, the Upper Tolerance Limit (UTL) significantly surpass the OEL indicating low certainty regarding these exposure values for employees. Notably, the UTLs suggest that the SEGs are experiencing noise levels above the legally required 90 dBA for more than 5% of the time, which is an unacceptable scenario. Recommendations include implementing protective strategies such as regular training, surveillance, and monitoring, alongside engineering control strategies and mandatory use of personal protective equipment. These results underscore the critical need for refining judgments about noise exposures based on variability within and between employees, suggesting the use of additional statistical tools such as ANOVA (single-multivariate), MATLAB, and Python.

Assessing predictability of environmental time series with statistical and machine learning models

AbstractThe ever increasing popularity of machine learning methods in virtually all areas of science, engineering and beyond is poised to put established statistical modeling approaches into question. Environmental statistics is no exception, as popular constructs such as neural networks and decision trees are now routinely used to provide forecasts of physical processes ranging from air pollution to meteorology. This presents both challenges and opportunities to the statistical community, which could contribute to the machine learning literature with a model‐based approach with formal uncertainty quantification. Should, however, classical statistical methodologies be discarded altogether in environmental statistics, and should our contribution be focused on formalizing machine learning constructs? This work aims at providing some answers to this thought‐provoking question with two time series case studies where selected models from both the statistical and machine learning literature are compared in terms of forecasting skills, uncertainty quantification and computational time. Relative merits of both class of approaches are discussed, and broad open questions are formulated as a baseline for a discussion on the topic.

Morphology of the scaphotrapeziotrapezoid joint: A multi-domain statistical shape modeling approach.

The scaphotrapeziotrapezoid (STT) joint is involved in load transmission between the wrist and thumb. A quantitative description of baseline STT joint morphometrics is needed to capture the variation of normal anatomy as well as to guide staging of osteoarthritis. Statistical shape modeling (SSM) techniques quantify variations in three-dimensional shapes and relative positions. The objectives of this study are to describe the morphology of the STT joint using a multi-domain SSM. We asked: (1) What are the dominant modes of variation that impact bone and articulation morphology at the STT joint, and (2) what are the morphometrics of SSM-generated STT joints? Thirty adult participants were recruited to a computed tomography study of normal wrist imaging and biomechanics. Segmentations of the carpus were converted to three-dimensional triangular surface meshes. A multi-domain, particle-based entropy system SSM was used to quantify variation in carpal bone shape and position as well as articulation morphology. Articular surface areas and interosseous proximity distributions were calculated between mesh vertex pairs on adjacent bones within distance (2.0 mm) and surface-normal angular (35°) thresholds. In the SSM, the first five modes of variation captured 76.2% of shape variation and contributed to factors such as bone scale, articular geometries, and carpal tilt. Median interosseous proximities-a proxy for joint space-were 1.39 mm (scaphotrapezium), 1.42 mm (scaphotrapezoid), and 0.61 mm (trapeziotrapezoid). This study quantifies morphological and articular variations at the STT joint, presenting a range of normative anatomy. The range of estimated interosseous proximities may guide interpretation of imaging-derived STT joint space.

Advanced Statistical Approach for the Mathematical Modeling of Transfer Processes in a Layer Based on Experimental Data at the Boundary

Advanced Statistical Approach for the Mathematical Modeling of Transfer Processes in a Layer Based on Experimental Data at the Boundary

Personality Traits and Insurance Demand.

Personality traits drive people's financial decisions and hence affect their lives. Yet, we know little about the relationship between personality traits and insurance decisions. Do Risk-Taking, the Big Five and Locus of Control predict a variety of personal insurance decisions? Using a sample of 14,624 German adults with the goal of identifying associations between personality and insurance demand, we found that personality traits predict demand for various insurance types. We also found that associations may be mediated by demographic variables and may depend on the statistical modeling approach (e.g., including nonlinear relationships or examining between- and within-person effects). These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of personality in insurance demand and highlight the need for further exploration of this relationship, as our results demonstrate that personality-insurance-demand-associations depend on the examined insurance type.

The impacts of economy policy uncertainty on peer effects of firms R&D investment: Based on LDA machine learning and regression statistical modeling approach.

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is used to extract the text themes of newspaper news and construct the Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index. On this basis, based on the relevant data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2020, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of EPU on peer effects of firms R&D investment, and finds that EPU will aggravate the peer effects of firms R&D investment. Furthermore, the moderating effect of manager's motivation to maintain reputation on the process of EPU influencing the peer effects of firms R&D investment was tested, and the mechanism of EPU influencing the peer effects of firms R&D investment through financial frictions was verified.

Quantifying the carbon sequestration potential of different soil management practices aimed at increasing organic content in soil and reducing the usage of chemical inputs

<p>The global imperative to address climate change and promote sustainable agriculture has underscored the critical role of soil management practices in enhancing carbon sequestration and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This research focuses on quantifying the carbon sequestration potential of diverse soil management techniques aimed at increasing organic content in soil while minimizing the use of chemical inputs. It integrates a multidisciplinary approach, conducting field experiments across diverse agroecological regions with different soil types and cropping systems. Key practices under investigation include cover cropping, crop rotations, conservation tillage, compost application, organic amendments, integrated pest management (IPM), and precision agriculture. The study assesses their impact on soil organic carbon levels, greenhouse gas emissions, soil health indicators, and crop productivity through comprehensive data collection and analysis techniques. Statistical analyses and modeling are employed to quantify carbon sequestration rates, evaluate treatment effects, and assess environmental and agronomic benefits. These practices are implemented in controlled trials to assess their impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) levels, greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), soil health indicators (microbial biomass, nutrient cycling, soil structure), and crop productivity. Data collection and analysis techniques involve comprehensive soil sampling, greenhouse gas flux measurements, soil health assessments, and crop yield monitoring over multiple growing seasons. Statistical analyses and modeling approaches are employed to quantify the carbon sequestration rates, assess treatment effects on soil health and greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the overall environmental and agronomic benefits of the soil management practices. The study aims to contribute valuable insights into evidence-based strategies for promoting sustainable soil management practices that enhance carbon sequestration while maintaining or improving agricultural productivity. The findings will have implications for informing agricultural policies, guiding farm management decisions, and advancing research on climate-smart agriculture. By quantifying the carbon sequestration potential of different soil management practices, this research contributes to the broader goal of achieving climate resilience, environmental sustainability, and food security in agricultural systems.</p>

Modelling the rainfall threshold for shallow landslides considering the landslide predisposing factors in Portugal

Rainfall-triggered landslides pose a significant threat to both infrastructure and human lives, making it crucial to comprehend the factors that contribute to their occurrence. Specifically, understanding the relationship between these factors and the amount of rain that is necessary for triggering such events is essential for effective prediction and mitigation strategies. To address this issue, our study proposes a statistical modelling approach using machine learning, specifically the Random Forest algorithm, to investigate the connection between landslide predisposing factors and the daily rainfall intensity threshold necessary for the initiation of shallow landslides in Portugal. By leveraging a comprehensive dataset comprising historical landslide events, associated critical rainfall, and ten distinct landslide predisposing factors, we developed several models and used cross-validation technique to evaluate their performance. Our findings demonstrate that the Random Forest model effectively captures a relationship among landslide predisposing factors, critical daily rainfall intensity, and landslide occurrences. The models exhibit a satisfactory accuracy in assessing the spatial variation of critical daily rainfall intensity based on the predisposing factors, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of around 17%. Furthermore, the models provide valuable insights into the relative importance of various predisposing factors in landslide triggering, highlighting the significance of each factor. It was found that it takes higher rainfall intensity to trigger shallow landslides in the north region of Portugal when considering critical rainfall events of 3 and 13 days. Slope aspect, slope angle, and clay content in the soil are among the main predisposing factors used for defining the spatial variation of the daily rainfall intensity threshold.

Optimization and Modeling of a Dual-Chamber Microbial Fuel Cell (DCMFC) for Industrial Wastewater Treatment: A Box–Behnken Design Approach

Microbial fuel cells (MFCs) have garnered significant attention due to their capacity to generate electricity using renewable and carbon-neutral energy sources such as wastewater. Extensive experimental work and modeling techniques have been employed to dissect these processes and understand their respective impacts on electricity generation. The driving force is to enhance MFC performance for practical applications commercially. Among the various statistical modeling approaches, one particularly robust tool is the Design of Experiments (DoE). It serves to establish the relationships between different variables that influence MFC performance and allows for the optimization of the MFC configuration and operation for scaled-up performances in terms of bioelectricity generation. This study focused on optimizing microbial fuel cells (MFCs) for bioelectricity production using industrial wastewater treatment, employing the Box–Behnken design (BBD) methodology. Through an analysis of response surface models and ANOVA tests, it was found that a combined approach of reduced quadratic, reduced two-factor interaction, and linear models yielded sound results, particularly in voltage yield, COD removal, and current density. Second-order regression models predicted optimal conditions for various parameters, with surface area, temperature, and catholyte dosage identified as critical input variables for optimization. Under these conditions, conducted by the four-factor and three-level Box–Behnken design methodology in a double-chamber MFC unit considering eight output variables—CCV yield, % COD removal, current density, power density, % TSS removal, % CE, and % PO43−—the optimum values were 700 mV, 54.4%, 54.4 mA/m2, 73.7 mW/m2, 99%, 21.2%, and 100%, respectively. At optimum operating conditions, the results revealed a desirability of 76.6% out of a total of 92 iterations. The paper highlights the effectiveness of statistical ANOVA fit-statistics modeling and optimization in enhancing DCMFC performance, recommending its use as a sustainable bioenergy source. Furthermore, validation results supported the above optimization output response findings and confirmed the viability of biorefinery wastewater as an anolyte for scaling up DCMFC bioelectricity generation.

Future Changes in Regional Tropical Cyclone Wind, Precipitation, and Flooding Using Event‐Based Downscaling

AbstractUnderstanding changes in the hazard component of climate risk is important to inform societal resilience planning in a changing climate. Here, we examine local changes in wind speed, rainfall, and flooding related to tropical cyclones (TCs) and compare them across statistical and dynamical modeling approaches. Our focus region is the Delaware River Basin, located in the northeastern United States. We pair event‐based downscaling with large ensemble climate model information to capture the details of extreme TC wind, rain, and flooding, and their likelihood, in a changing climate. We identify local TCs in the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2‐LENS). We find fewer TCs in the future, but these future storms have higher wind speeds and are wetter. We also find that TCs produce heavier 3‐day precipitation distributions than all other summertime weather events, with TCs constituting a larger percentage of the upper tail of the full precipitation distribution. With this information, we identify a small collection of 200‐year return events and compare the resulting TC rain and wind across dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. We find that dynamical downscaling produces peak rain rates far higher than CESM or the statistical downscaling method. It can also produce quite different future changes in precipitation totals for the small set of events considered here. This leads to vastly different flood responses. Overall, our results highlight the need to interpret future changes of event‐based simulations in the context of downscaling method limitations.

Turbine-Level Possible Power Prediction using Farm-Wide Spatial Information through Similarity-Based Multivariate Gaussians

Wind farms usually comprise several turbines of the same type in proximity to one another. Therefore, similarities exist between the power production of specific turbines within the wind farm over time. Considering this, it is possible to find a way to express the similarity between turbines and exploit their properties to find a formulation of the expected behavior of a turbine. With this estimation of possible power output, one can analyze the losses generated by curtailments or transients with a higher precision. Based on this, a probabilistic model is proposed that can be used to calculate energy losses due to maintenance or environmental reasons. On top of that, heavy deviations in the behavior of specific wind turbines can be detected on high-frequency (1-second) data. Overall, the goal of this work is to predict possible power on high-frequency SCADA data using a statistical white-box modeling approach. The presented method is based on a probabilistic framework, constructing a system of linear combinations that permits analytically tracking the expected behavior of a turbine, even if it is non-operational for a specific amount of time. The methodology includes two parts, the first one is the use of data-driven power curves, and the second one consists of an inferential framework based on the environmental conditions of the farm. Results show that the method presented performs better than the manufacturer’s power curves under specific wind speeds and wind directions.

A Hybrid Experimental Modelling Approach to Solar Photovoltaic Cell Temperature Prediction

Solar cell temperature is critical in the determination of solar energy generated by a solar photovoltaic power plant. High temperatures are associated with a reduction in the energy generated and hence prediction of photovoltaic cell temperature is essential in temperature mitigation and solar energy forecasting especially in commercial power plants. The present study focused on the development of a machine learning based predictive model for solar photovoltaic cell temperature prediction in commercial solar photovoltaic power plants. A physical experimental set up was developed to measure solar cell temperature under different weather and other related parameters. Satellite data were also collated for those parameters difficult to measure experimentally and were used to compliment experimental data used in this study. Satellite data used in the study were statistically transformed for each parameter used to mimic experimentally measured data. Statistical approaches were adopted to analyse the influence of both the dependent and independent variables on solar cell temperature. The analysis included multicollinearity and correlation analysis with the aid of heat maps meant to establish the relationships among the independent and dependent variables. Feature selection and dimensionality reduction was also performed to reduce the input variables and maintain relevant data in the modelling process. Parameters with a strong correlation to each other had some of them eliminated in the modelling process. A solar cell temperature predictive model based on selected weather parameters was developed using a machine learning approach (Random Forests), and parameters used were selected from the statistical analysis. The prediction accuracy of the developed model was analysed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results indicated a higher model performance compared to generic models used in cell temperature prediction. The prediction MAPE for the developed model was 0.83 °C while an R2 value of 0.93 was obtained which was indicative of a good model. The developed model was also comparable to other contemporary models developed to predict solar photovoltaic cell temperature. Simulations were also done to determine the annual energy generated with the incorporation of the solar cell temperature prediction model. The results revealed a 3.4% difference in the annual energy generated between a simulation which considered solar cell temperature and that which ignored the solar cell temperature. The study also revealed that this difference is even larger in monetary terms when lifetime energy generation is considered. The present study demonstrated that Random Forests, a machine learning approach to predictive modelling, can handle complex models and can provide models with a higher accuracy compared to statistical modelling approaches. The study recommends the use of solar cell predictive models to improve the accuracy of energy prediction on solar photovoltaic power plants which in turn assists in energy planning and deployment.

Mathematical Modeling Suggests That Monocyte Activity May Drive Sex Disparities during Influenza Infection.

In humans, females of reproductive age often experience a more severe disease during influenza A virus infection, which may be due to differences in their innate immune response. Sex-specific outcomes to influenza infection have been recapitulated in mice, enabling researchers to study viral and immune dynamics in vivo in order to identify immune mechanisms that are differently regulated between the sexes. This study is based on the hypothesis that sex-specific outcomes emerge due to differences in the rates/speeds that select immune components respond. Using publicly available sex-specific murine data, we utilized dynamic mathematical models of the innate immune response to identify candidate mechanisms that may lead to increased disease severity in female mice. We implemented a large computational screen using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), wherein the goodness of fit of the competing model scenarios is balanced against complexity (i.e., the number of parameters). Our results suggest that having sex-specific rates for proinflammatory monocyte induction by interferon and monocyte inhibition of virus replication provides the simplest (lowest BIC) explanation for the difference observed in the male and female immune responses. Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and global sensitivity analysis of the top performing scenario were performed to provide rigorous estimates of the sex-specific parameter distributions and to provide insight into which parameters most affect innate immune responses. Simulations using the top-performing model suggest that monocyte activity could be a key target to reduce influenza disease severity in females. Overall, our Bayesian statistical and dynamic modeling approach suggests that monocyte activity and induction parameters are sex-specific and may explain sex-differences in influenza disease immune dynamics.

Nutrient contents and microbial communities as mediators of the effects of land-use in ecosystem functioning in alpine ecosystems from Central Mexico

PurposeThe interplay between microbial taxonomy, functional diversity, and land-use changes across diverse ecosystems must be better understood. This study explores, through a statistical modeling approach, the intricate relationships between microbial communities, soil properties (nutrient contents and physicochemical parameters), and land-use changes, using stable isotopes ratio (δ13C/δ15N) as ecosystem function indicator.MethodsUsing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) this study aims to investigate how soil microbial communities, soil properties and ecosystem function are interconnected in three ecosystems undergoing land-use change in Nevado de Toluca, Mexico.ResultsMultivariate analyses of microbial communities and soil parameters for the different land-uses reveal significant variation in both microbial composition and soil properties (i.e. nutrient contents) mainly explained by the land-use history of the studied ecosystems. Through the SEM approach, it was possible to disentangle the relative contribution of land-use change, microbial community composition and nutrient contents to the ecosystem function defined as the δ13C/δ15N ratio.ConclusionsMicrobial communities are the main drivers of soil ecosystem functioning. However, through SEM approach it is possible to formally test direct and indirect relationships impacting microbial communities and the resulting functional consequences, contributing to a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of land-use change, aiding in sustainable land-use decision-making.

Permeability modelling in a highly heterogeneous tight carbonate reservoir using comparative evaluating learning-based and fitting-based approaches

Permeability modelling is considered a complex task in reservoir characterization and a key component of reservoir simulation. A common method for permeability modelling involves performing static rock typing (SRT) using routine core analysis data and developing simple fitting-based mathematical relations that link permeability to reservoir rock porosity. In the case of carbonate reservoirs, which are associated with high heterogeneities, fitting-based approaches may fail due to porosity–permeability data scattering. Accurate modelling of permeability using petrophysical well log data seems more promising since they comprise a vast array of information about the intrinsic properties of the geological formations. Furthermore, well log data exhibit continuity throughout the entire reservoir interval, whereas core data are discrete and limited in availability and coverage. In this research work, porosity, permeability and log data of two oil wells from a tight carbonate reservoir were used to predict permeability at un-cored intervals. Machine learning (ML) and fitting models were used to develop predictive models. Then, the developed ML models were compared to exponential and statistical fitting modelling approaches. The integrated ML permeability model based on Random Forest method performed significantly superior to exponential and statistical fitting-based methods. Accordingly, for horizontal and vertical permeability of test samples, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values were 3.7 and 4.5 for well 2, and 1.7 and 0.86 for well 4, respectively. Hence, using log data, permeability modelling was improved as it incorporates more comprehensive reservoir rock physics. The outcomes of this reach work can be used to improve the distribution of both horizontal and vertical permeability in the 3D model for future dynamic reservoir simulations in such a complex and heterogeneous reservoir system.

Optimization of Process Parameters for Turning Operation on D3 Die Steel

This research aims to determine the optimal Surface Roughness for machining D3 die steel alloy with uncoated carbide inserts. It will do this by studying the most efficient turning parameters, such as cutting speed, feed, and depth of cut. Models have been generated using a variety of statistical modeling approaches, including Genetic Algorithm with Response Surface Methodology. This research aimed to use the regression technique to develop a model that could predict surface roughness. It has also been investigated if the Taguchi Technique may be used to optimize process parameters. To decide the primary boundaries affecting Surface Unpleasantness, we used Signal-to-Noise (S/N) ratio and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tests. This paper aims to contribute valuable insights into achieving the best Surface Roughness outcomes in the machining process for D3 die steel alloy with Uncoated Carbide Inserts. The utilization of Genetic Algorithm and Response Surface Methodology showcases a robust approach for modelling intricate parameter interactions. If you know the values of the parameters, you may use the Regression Technique to forecast the surface roughness. Process parameter optimization may be made more systematic with the use of the Taguchi Technique.