Statistical Inference Research Articles

Network and Business Performance Installed in Coworking Spaces: Evidence and Associations

Space sharing for companies has become a trend in the last decade. Many of the benefits of these spaces go beyond the financial scope, creating real value-added processes from these spaces. This study examines the associations between networks developed in coworking spaces and business performance. This research was quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive ex post facto. A survey was conducted among companies installed in coworking spaces in Recife, Brazil. The sample consisted of 77 valid respondents, and the data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics that measure central tendency, factor analysis, and Spearman (ordinal indicators) and Pearson (resulting factors) correlations, in addition to reliability tests and adequacy of the sample, necessary in the refinement of the scales. This study makes a theoretical contribution by specifying the concept of coworking, a topic still underexplored in the literature, and by defining networks in this context, which allowed for the development of a measurement scale. It also discusses the performance construct and its measurement classes, which showed significant internal consistency. Despite the consistency in the data, only the hypothesis of a positive and significant association between network and market performance was partially accepted, demonstrating that more than the network alone was needed to generate results among coworkers. This lack of association contradicts the literature as it is the most discussed aspect in qualitative studies on coworking and suggests that the network may not be a final resource but rather a means by which users obtain benefits such as benchmarks, creative ideas, and adaptation of business practices.

Credit Risk Management Practices and Asset Quality of Deposit Taking Savings and Credit Co-operative Societies in Kenya

Despite the key role DT-SACCOs play towards the growth of Kenyan economy, there is reported increasing occurrence of unsustainable levels of NPLs among these financial institutions. The increasing occurrence of NPLs are significantly obstructing asset quality; highly threatening their survival. This study closed this gap by assessing; risk identification, risk measurement, risk monitoring, and risk governance.as determinants of Kenya DT-SACCOs. The study used descriptive research design with the credit managers of Kenya's 176 licensed DT-SACCOs as the target population. The study employed census because the sample size was modest, easily accessible, and controllable. The data for the study was gathered from primary sources utilizing questionnaire. To create descriptive statistics for the study, the data was analyzed using quantitative analysis. Inferential statistics was then used to obtain a model. The study found that, at 5% significance level, risk identification has positive significant effect on asset quality of DT-SACCOS in Kenya in Kenya (p=0.015; β= 0.337; r= 0.394). risk measurement has a statistically significant and positive effect on asset quality of DT-SACCOS in Kenya (p=0.023; β=0.212; r= 0.358), risk monitoring has positive significant effect on asset quality of DT-SACCOS in Kenya (p= 0.049; β= 0.182; r= 0467) and risk governance positively and significantly affects asset quality of DT-SACCOS in Kenya (p= 0.034; β= 0.236; r= 0.470). The study recommends that the DT-SACCOS in Kenya should; enhance their risk identification policies by ensuring that their procedure authenticity of business proposal and business plan are effective to bale to identify credit risks and net worth of the borrowers, enhance their risk measurement procedure to ensure that there is thorough analysis and appraisal of the borrower before approving loan. enhance their risk monitoring polices and procedures to ensure approval authorities are well specified and empowered, and ensure their risk governance guidelines correctly address credit procedures and policies on review and recommendations and clearly spell out the requirements concerning checks on collateral of the borrower during credit review.

Post-occupancy evaluation (POE) of high-rise flats built using prefabricated prefinished volumetric construction (PPVC)

PurposeThere has been an increasing use of prefabricated prefinished volumetric construction (PPVC) in the construction of high-rise flats to enhance productivity and sustainability, but there have been little studies to evaluate if the use of PPVC satisfies construction quality and overall satisfaction with the flat. This study aims to evaluate how homeowners perceive living in PPVC flats after they have moved into their homes. This is done with a post-occupancy evaluation (POE) looking at total building performance (TBP) mandates covering spatial performance (SP), acoustics performance (AP), visual performance (VP), indoor air quality performance (IAQP) and thermal performance (TP).Design/methodology/approachData were collected through the use of a survey questionnaire which was developed based on literature review. The data gathered from 145 respondents were then analysed quantitatively using Jeffrey’s Amazing Statistics Program (JASP), Microsoft Excel and Comma-Separated Values (CSV) files. The data analysed were further validated through the use of interviews with industry professionals.FindingsBased on descriptive and inferential statistics, the key findings of this study are that most respondents are satisfied with their PPVC flats in terms of quality of construction, satisfaction, IAQP, TP, AP and VP. However, they are less satisfied with the interior of their PPVC flats.Originality/valueThis is the first ever POE in the world conducted with homeowners living in high-rise flats built using PPVC. The findings from the study highlighted homeowners’ concerns regarding the quality of construction, SP, and AP, particularly in the interior areas of the flats, and underscores the importance of considering homeowners' experiences and perceptions in the design and construction of PPVC housing.

Assessing the Effectiveness of TVET Training in Enhancing Youth Employability: A Case Study of Kisumu County, Kenya

Abstract: TVET offers opportunities to equip youth with industry-relevant skills, bridging the gap between education and employment. However, challenges such as inadequate funding, outdated curricula, limited access to modern equipment, and negative perceptions hinder its potential. This study assessed the effectiveness of TVET training in enhancing youth employability n Kisumu County, Kenya. Social learning theory and Human capital theory were adopted. A descriptive survey design was adopted. The study targeted a population of 20,857 consisting of 20,814 TVET students, 42 Heads of TVET institutions and 1 County Education Officer in Kisumu County Government. The sample size was 379 determined using Krejcie and Morgan (1970) formula. Sampling was conducted by means of disproportionate stratified random sampling. Structured questionnaires and interview guide were used to collect data. Data analytical methods were content analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics. Linear relationships between variables were determined using Pearson`s Correlation analysis method. The correlational coefficient for youth employment was=0.57 implying a moderate positive relationship between TVET training and youth employability. Government as policy-maker was recommended to institute regular reform for reviewing the existing TVET curricula in order to incorporate feedback from students and adapt to emerging dynamics of demographic dividends. The Government should increase funding, resources for TVET Institutions: The government should allocate more financial resources to TVET institutions to enhance infrastructure and support the development of industry-relevant programs and strengthen industry partnerships and collaborations between TVET institutions and industries to ensure that training programs are aligned with current labor market demands.

The Influence of New Media on Consumer Perception in China

This study aims to analyze the impact of new media on consumer perceptions. The sample group comprised 400 respondents from internet platforms in Shandong, China. At the statistical significance level of 0.05, descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation were employed to analyze data, as were inferential statistics such as Independent Samples t.test, One-way ANOVA, LSD, and Multiple Linear Regression. The study's results found that demographic factors such as gender, age, and occupation, in addition to "educational background, impact consumer perceptions. The emergence of new media, represented by Internet opinion leaders, Self-media, and Brand experience, influenced consumer perceptions.

The effects of government policy on performance planning for implementation of performance contracting in the government ministries in Kenya

The study sought to analyse the effects of government policy on performance planning for the implementation of performance contracting in government ministries in Kenya. A mixed-method type of design was adopted. Stratified sampling was used to sample four government ministries. In sampling staff to be interviewed, top and middle-level management totalling 831 were identified. Thirty per cent of the 831 (249 staff members) were considered to be representative enough for the study. The study adopted descriptive and inferential statistics. The study used ANOVA, regression analysis, and correlation to analyse the relationship between variables. The study finding observed that there was a strong correlation coefficient of 0.866 at p-value of 0.035 between government policy and performance planning, which implied that employees' performance planning is significant in the implementation of performance contracting; a unit standard deviation increase in effective training and development was likely to increase the standard deviation of performance monitoring by 0.096 on implementation of performance contracting; a unit standard deviation increase in top management commitment was likely to increase the standard deviation of performance reporting on performance implementation by 0.337. The study concludes that government policies have an effect on performance contracting in government ministries in Kenya. Further, the conclusion was that government policy has minimally addressed issues of training and development. Therefore, it is recommended that transfer of training be included in the next reviews of the government policy and specifically addressed in the workplace that often affect the impact of training and development.

Pengaruh Media Pembelajaran Powtoon pada Materi Sel Terhadap Hasil Belajar Peserta Didik Kelas XI Madrasah Aliyah Pesantren Guppi Samata

This research covers the application of PowToon learning media to improve student learning outcomes in Cell material. The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of the use of PowToon learning media on the learning outcomes of students in the material of Cell XI MA MA Guppi Samata Islamic Boarding School. This study included a pseudo-experiment using a non-equivalent pretest posttest control group design. The population in this study is all students of class XI MA Guppi Samata Islamic Boarding School consisting of 2 classes. The sampling technique in this study is by using the purposive sampling method. The research instrument is in the form of a learning outcome test consisting of 30 multiple-choice questions. Data analysis techniques use descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The results of the study showed that students who were taught using PowToon learning media had an average learning outcome of 87.36, while students who were taught using Conventional learning media (Biology Package books) had an average learning outcome of 71.3. The results of inferential statistical analysis obtained a sign value for learning outcomes of 0.000, this value shows that sign < α = 0.000 < 0.05 so that H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted. Based on the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the application of PowToon learning media has an effect on the learning outcomes of students in the Class XI Cell material of Madrasah Aliyah Guppi Samata Islamic Boarding School.

Some puzzles appearing in statistical inference

Some puzzles appearing in statistical inference

A Longitudinal Multi-Method Inquiry of Educational Workers’ Use of Interventions for Positive Mental Wellbeing

Background and Objectives: Compassion fatigue and burnout are two distinct forms of mental health distress faced by educational workers. Researchers have shown a high level of both phenomena across the field of education; however, a better understanding of what educational workers already do for positive mental and emotional health is needed. Methods: This research study examined three years of data, collected via survey, inquiring into the various interventions, namely supports and resources, that educational workers use to support positive mental health. Results: Quantitative data analysis via descriptive and inferential statistics revealed that educational workers relied heavily on their personal support network followed distantly by medical professionals and other interventions, revealing a gap that needs to be addressed by employers. Qualitative thematic analysis revealed a trend towards increased use of environmental interventions to promote positive mental wellbeing. Conclusions: The data analysis suggested areas of focus required to ensure workplace wellbeing, and that programs too focused on individual or self-directed interventions would not be well received by educators. Suggestions for other interventions that might be helpful for leaders and policy-makers are provided.

Technology readiness and implications for higher education in Universities in North-Central Nigeria

The fourth industrial revolution emphasises classroom innovation with digital and smart technology. It examined students' preparation for technology-driven education in higher education and the fourth industrial revolution. A descriptive survey research design was adopted for this study. The population consisted of students from tertiary institutions, while the target population included university undergraduate and postgraduate students in universities in North-Central Nigeria. The sample comprised five hundred and seventy students across three types of institutions in Nigeria (i.e. private, state, and federal-owned institutions), drawn using proportionate and cluster sampling techniques. Data were collected using a researcher-designed and validated questionnaire with an overall reliability index of 0.86. The collected data were analysed descriptively, and non-parametric inferential statistics were tested at a 0.05 level of significance. Students were ready to use educational apps for studying, engage with immersive tech tools while learning, learn about IoT as part of their learning trajectories for 4IR compliance, embrace many technological innovations while learning, and engage in lifelong learning. Moderately technology-ready students had significant gender, age, institution, and degree of study demographics. Also, given the contemporary 4IR reality, pupils were somewhat ready for technology-enhanced education and positively inclined toward technology-driven abilities. Group dynamics are crucial to preparation. Therefore, it is recommended that students be given the opportunity to improve their technical abilities to prepare them for meaningful teaching and learning. This can be done by investing in technology, training students, and passing regulations that support worldwide competitive online learning.

Contribution of International Non-Governmental Organizations’ Interventions on Students’ Competence in English Language in Bugesera District Primary Schools, Rwanda

Purpose: The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of interventions by International Non-Governmental Organizations on students' competence in Rwanda. Methodology: This research adopted a descriptive case study design aimed at establishing the impact of International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) interventions on learners’ competence in English in Rwanda. The study utilized a mixed-method approach, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to provide a comprehensive analysis. The population of our study was composed of 92 teachers and 16 head teachers of all primary schools in Bugesera District which were the target of Teacher Self Learning Academy project. The population also included 5 SEIs, 1 DEO/DDE in that district and a Plan International staff who has been involved in the TSLA project implementation. The sample size drawn from the total population of 92 teachers is 75 teachers using Slovin's Formula. Alongside the 8 head teachers from the selected schools, 5 SEIs, 1 DDE, and 1 Plan International staff member, this leads to a total of 90 participants for the study. The sampling approach was specifically tailored to suit the different categories of participants in the study. Purposive sampling was employed to select all head teachers from the identified schools. In contrast, stratified random sampling was used to select teachers, ensuring representativeness across various demographics such as gender, experience, and school location. For this study purpose, questionnaires and interview guide was used to collect and analyze data from research participants. The researcher took into consideration validity and reliability of the study to be valid and reliable to the audience. The researcher used descriptive statistics to analyze quantitative data and draw tables. Descriptive statistics were used to simplify large amounts of data. Inferential statistics were used to treat particular factors to detect the contribution of each determinant in learners’ competence in English. Primary data was treated through appropriate software as Statistical Package for Social Science (IBM/SPSS Version 21.0) and by after confronted with interviews and secondary data. Findings: The findings from both quantitative and qualitative data reveal that the TSLA project had a significant positive impact on students' English language skills, particularly in listening, speaking, reading, and writing. The findings revealed that 90.7% of the respondents agreed that instructional videos uploaded on iPods improved students' English listening skills, while 100% believed that these videos enhanced speaking fluency. Additionally, 94.7% of respondents indicated that the provision of teaching aids improved students' reading skills, and 86.7% noted an improvement in writing skills. Methods used in teachers' training, such as study groups and mentoring, were positively evaluated, with 76% and 74.7% of respondents, respectively, affirming their contribution to students’ English competence. However, challenges such as inadequate support from school management (62.7%), lack of incentives (88%), and insufficient resources (98.7%) were identified as barriers to effective implementation. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Government authorities should enforce policies that mandate continuous professional development for teachers and monitor their implementation to ensure effectiveness. The Ministry of Education should enhance teacher training programs by investing in comprehensive and continuous professional development programs that focus on modern teaching methodologies, ICT integration, and language competences. The Rwanda Basic Education Board (REB) should create incentive schemes to acknowledge and reward teachers who demonstrate exceptional dedication and improvement in their teaching practices. Bugesera Primary Schools should ensure that school management provides adequate support to teachers, including mentoring, peer coaching, and access to necessary teaching materials while parents should encourage and support their children's learning activities at home, particularly in using ICT tools and practicing language skills.

Evaluation of emergency nurses’ knowledge of medical response in nuclear and radiological emergencies : a cross-sectional study

BackgroundEvaluating emergency room nurses’ knowledge of radiation protection, health effects, and decontamination procedures is crucial for preparedness in nuclear and radiological emergencies. This study aims to evaluate the level of knowledge among emergency nurses in Saudi Arabia regarding medical responses to nuclear and radiological emergencies.MethodsA multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted via a self-structured questionnaire with 15 true‒false questions divided into three domains, namely, radiation protection measures, radiation health effects, and decontamination procedures, each with five items and a possible score of 1 point per correct answer. The collected data were analyzed via descriptive and inferential statistics. The study followed the STROBE checklist for methodological rigor.ResultsA total of 594 emergency nurses participated in this study, with the majority being young (64.50% aged ≤ 30), female (68.69%), bachelor’s degree-holding (67.68%), single (63.64%), having ≤ 4 years of experience (56.06%), working in public health facilities (88.89%), and lacking training in medical response (85.35%). The mean knowledge scores for participants were highest for radiation exposure effects (3.27 ± 0.91), followed by radiation protective measures (2.32 ± 0.99), and lowest for decontamination procedures (1.46 ± 1.07). Overall knowledge was measured at a mean score of 7.06 ± 1.68, with 97.47% of the nurses categorized as having poor knowledge level. Nurses in private hospitals scored higher (7.77 ± 1.82) than those in public hospitals (6.97 ± 1.65) on overall mean knowledge (P = 0.034). Concerning findings include emergency nurses’ misconceptions about the protection provided by dense materials, the effectiveness of increasing distance from a radiation source, and prioritizing decontamination of victims over life-saving measures. Additionally, they were unaware of the immediate symptoms following radiation exposure and misunderstood that the primary threat in a radioactive bomb event is the explosion rather than the radiation itself.ConclusionThis study revealed poor knowledge among emergency nurses regarding medical responses to radiation emergencies and highlighted the critical need for enhanced and standardized training in radiation emergency preparedness among nurses. The gaps in knowledge identified in this study could significantly impact the effectiveness of healthcare responses in radiation emergency scenarios. Therefore, targeted educational interventions and policy changes are recommended to address these shortcomings.

Accountability System, Academic Autonomy, and Freedom of Academia Versus Pathways to Educational Excellence in Hawassa University, Ethiopia

The study examined integrated effects of implementation of accountability system, institutional autonomy, and academic freedom of academia versus pathways to educational (professional, leadership and pedagogical) excellence in Hawassa University. The study answered the central research question: “What do the effects of implementation of accountability, academic autonomy and freedom of academia versus professional, leadership and pedagogical excellences look-like?” The study employed mixed method with concurrent triangulation design. The researchers selected samples of the study using purposive, convenient, stratified, and simple random sampling techniques. The researchers collected data using questionnaires, unstructured interviews, and document examination and analyzed data using descriptive and inferential statistics and thematic narration using SPSS-26 and NVivo-14, respectively. There were multiple gaps pertaining implementing performance-based and professional-based internal accountability to accomplish institutional visions, missions, and mutual goals. The findings of the study showed that although academic autonomy relates to the independence of academic institutions in decision-making concerning curriculum, teaching methods, research, and academic policies, it shows practical gaps concerning teachers’ and students’ academic freedom. This includes challenges related to quality teaching, research, community services, and expression of views to criticize the weakness of institutional censorship. The study recommends that the practice of accountability strategies, technological, and pedagogical innovation toward striving for educational excellences needed improvements. Managerial, technological, and pedagogical innovation should promote decision-making competencies, professional, leadership, and pedagogical excellence.

Factors Influencing Implementation of Agricultural Projects in Rural Areas of Rwanda: A Case of Bugesera District

Purpose: The aim of the study is to assess the factors influencing Implementation of Agricultural projects in Bugesera District Eastern Province of Rwanda from 2022-2024. Methodology: The study selected Bugesera District as a study population with 80 target population. The study adopted descriptive survey that involves quantitative approaches. Qualitative analysis was to review the existing Literature, and quantitative involved collecting of data from the field. In this research Bugesera District was study population with 80 target population and sample size of 67%. Yaman formula and then purposive sampling technique was adopted. Both secondary and primary data used. Therefore primary data collected through questionnaires where formulated and forwarded to respondents to gather primary data, SPSS version 25 used in analysis and presentation of data it table, descriptive statistical analysis, was comprised of mean and standard deviation as well as inferential statistics such as Pearson correlation (r) and multiple linear regression analysis. Findings: The study highlighted their opinions with the rate of 58.6% strongly agreed, 26.2 agreed 13.7% indicated neutral, and 2.3% disagreed with mean of 6.5 and standard deviation of 1.76, respondents highlighted their about the statement of stakeholder engagement with high rate of 52.1%, strongly agreed, and 28.9% agreed, 12.7% stated neutral, 3.9% disagreed, 2%strongly disagreed, with mean of 6.3 and standard deviation of 1.78. and lastly 56.5% strongly agreed, 25.5% agreed, 11.9% stated that neutral, 3.9% disagreed, 1.9% strongly disagreed, the statement of training provide knowledge and skill with mean of 6.333 and standard deviation of 1.7. Researcher revealed that training of stakeholders and farmers has positive effects on agricultural project implementation in Bugesera District. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The researcher recommended to Bugesera District in department of agricultural projects to continue humanize project planning, allow stakeholder involvement and season training of farmers, such that planned project of agriculture implemented at upper level.

Knowledge and attitude of pharmacy students towards HIV treatment and prophylaxis in Davao City, Philippines

Pharmacy students significantly contribute to HIV management as future registered pharmacists. To contribute meaningfully, pharmacy students must be knowledgeable and have positive attitudes towards HIV treatment and prophylaxis. The aim is to investigate the levels of knowledge and attitude of undergraduate pharmacy students towards HIV treatment and education to identify key areas of improvement. Methods: The study used a quantitative research design with a structured survey based on published studies. Undergraduate pharmacy students from various schools in Davao City were invited to participate and provide informed consent. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used after obtaining data. Results: Pharmacy students in Davao City were found to have high overall knowledge (mean = 64.29%) and a high overall attitude (mean = 3.88). Knowledge about HIV treatment and prophylaxis did not correlate with the respondents' attitudes towards it. Furthermore, it was found that there is a significant difference in knowledge and attitude based on year level and school (< 0.000). Conclusion: The knowledge and attitude of undergraduate pharmacy students toward HIV treatment and prevention were high, indicating favourable results. However, improvements and training must continue to enhance their knowledge and attitude and reduce misconceptions and stigma. Collaboration with key stakeholders is essential to ensure the implementation of intervention programmes.

Probability Modeling and Statistical Inference in Cancer Screening

Probability Modeling and Statistical Inference in Cancer Screening

Practice and challenges related to regional anesthesia in Amhara regional hospitals, Northwest-Ethiopia: a web-based survey study

BackgroundRegional anesthesia (RA) can improve patient outcomes and reduce perioperative complications including deaths. Despite its benefits, RA is less utilised in low-resource settings. The purpose of this study was to assess practice and challenges related to RA in Amhara Regional Hospitals, Northwest-Ethiopia.MethodsA web- based survey was distributed among 360 anesthetists working in Amhara Regional Hospitals, Northwest-Ethiopia from November 15 - January 30, 2023. An English, semi-structure, self-administered questionnaire was disseminated by email and telegram following ethical clearance. The survey included questions about the use of RA, socio-demographic characteristics of anesthetist, types of practiced regional blocks, and barriers to perform RA. All volunteer respondents who filled online questionnaire during study period were included. The data were coded and analyzed using statistical package for social Sciences (SPSS) software-version 20. Both inferential and descriptive statistics were used to describe the results.ResultsThe overall response rate was 63.3% (223 out of 360 completed surveys). A total of 132 respondents (36.7%) did not provide a response, and 5 respondents (1.4%) submitted incomplete) surveys. The most frequently self-reported barriers to performing peripheral nerve blocks were a lack of equipment (regional procedure kit including block needle, ultrasound, nerve stimulator, or epidural set) 185 (82.9%), lack of knowledge 171(76.7%), lack of practical skills 112 (50.2%), and lack of drugs/medication 50 (22.4%).ConclusionsThe principal findings indicate that all respondents perform spinal anaesthesia, while the practice of peripheral RA varies. Reported barriers to performing RA are related to knowledge and training, as well as a lack of equipment (there aren’t enough regional procedure kits available that include an epidural set, block needle, nerve stimulator, and ultrasound). A more stringent approach with specific requirements, distinguishing between neuraxial and peripheral blocks, enhance training opportunities for peripheral nerve blocks are required in Ethiopia.

Constraints Faced by the Members of Women Milk Producers' Cooperative Societies in Shivamogga District of Karnataka, India

Women Milk Producers' Co-operative Societies (WMPCS) have emerged as an important source of rural employment and income in the country. The development of the WMPCS is very impressive in recent past. Shivamogga district is a good contributor to milk in Karnataka state. Keeping this in view, an ex-post facto research design was adopted to assess the constraints faced by the WMPCS members in dairy farming in the Shivamogga district of Karnataka. A total of 120 members were randomly selected from six WMPCS in two taluks of Shivamogga district and the data was collected with a semi-structured interview schedule. The collected data were subjected to suitable statistical tools and inferences were drawn. The study revealed that the majority of the women members had experienced the constraints in dairy farming like high cost of cattle feed and mineral mixture, low price of milk, high cost of crossbred cows, inadequate provision of loans in society or government for purchasing animals, lack of timely technical guidance, poor conception rate in dairy animals through artificial insemination, poor knowledge about feeding and health care, an increasing gap between farmers' prices and consumers' prices/increasing cost of handling charges by the union, Nonexistence of a price-fixing policy based on changing cost of production, decreasing animal sales and availability in the local livestock market, lack of training facilities or capacity-building activities and the non-availability of veterinary staff during needy hours as the constraints. Strategies should be developed for capacity building of women farmers related to scientific dairy managemental practices. Thrust should be given to development of policies and programmes for credit facilities.

A generative model for Gaia astrometric orbit catalogs: selection functions for binary stars, giant planets, and compact object companions

Astrometry from {} DR3 has produced a sample of $$170,000 Keplerian orbital solutions, with many more anticipated in the next few years. These data have enormous potential to constrain the population of binary stars, giant planets, and compact objects in the Solar neighborhood. But in order to use the published orbit catalogs for statistical inference, it is necessary to understand their selection function: what is the probability that a binary with a given set of properties ends up in a catalog? We show that such a selection function for the {} DR3 astrometric binary catalog can be forward-modeled from the {} scanning law, including individual 1D astrometric measurements, the fitting of a cascade of astrometric models, and quality cuts applied in post-processing. We populate a synthetic Milky Way model with binary stars and generate a mock catalog of astrometric orbits. The mock catalog is quite similar to the DR3 astrometric binary sample, suggesting that our selection function is a sensible approximation of reality. Our fitting also produces a sample of spurious astrometric orbits similar to those found in DR3; these are mainly the result of scan angle-dependent astrometric biases in marginally resolved wide binaries. We show that {} sensitivity to astrometric binaries falls off rapidly at high eccentricities, but only weakly at high inclinations. We predict that DR4 will yield ∼1 million astrometric orbits, mostly for bright ( G≲15) systems with long periods ( d). We provide code to simulate and fit realistic {} epoch astrometry for any data release and determine whether any hypothetical binary would receive a cataloged orbital solution.

The Gods as Latent Causes: A Statistical Inference Theory of Religion

The Gods as Latent Causes: A Statistical Inference Theory of Religion