Statistica Software Research Articles

Medical and sociological research of persons elderly and senior age receiving medical and social assistance in stationary conditions and at home

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the need for medical and social and long-term care for elderly and senile people serves as the basis for improving organizational approaches to improve the quality of medical and social services provided.
 AIMS: Determination of the needs of elderly and senile people in the provision of medical and social assistance.
 MATERIALS AND METHODS: For the study, a representative selective set of 400 elderly respondents is determined, of which 280 (70.0%) respondents lived at home (I group) and 120 (30.0%) under the stationary conditions of the gerontological center (II group). The study was conducted by interviewing based on a specially designed questionnaire and Loneliness by Svetlana G. Korchagina. Statistical processing of the received data was carried out using the Microsoft Office Excel 2013 and statistical package Statistica 12.
 RESULTS: The average age of the respondents was 72.97.96 years (p 0.05). The presence of polymorbidity was noted by every third respondent (33.0%), of which 23 diseases had 26.0%, 4 or more 7.0%, with a prevalence in the structure of the incidence of diseases of the cardiovascular system. 53.0% of people are in need for medical and social home care. 31.0% of people were satisfied with medical care, 41.0% of people consider social assistance available. A high prevalence of the state of loneliness in elderly and senile people was established: 94.0% in group I, 99.0% in group II, with a progressive increase in the rate as the age of the elderly increases.
 CONCLUSIONS: With increasing age, the subjective self-assessment of health worsens, associated with an increase in polymorbidity (mainly age-associated diseases) and the presence of disability; the decrease in the possibility of self-care increases the need for the elderly for assistance and care. The high prevalence of self-assessment of loneliness among the elderly and senile causes an increased need for older people in psycho-corrective measures.

ANAMNESIS, CLINICAL AND PARACLINICAL CHARACTERISTIC OF CHILDREN WITH AUTOIMMUNE THYROIDITIS

Purpose. 
 To conduct a comparative characterization of anamnesis and clinical and paraclinical data of children suffering from autoimmune thyroiditis and those with no thyroid pathology in order to optimize early diagnosis of the disease.
 Materials and Methods. 
 This examination was carried out on 132 children (55 boys and 77 girls) diagnosed with autoimmune thyroiditis at the age of 11.68±0.35. For comparison, 577 children (268 boys and 309 girls) without thyroid pathology at the age of 11.49±0.17 were included in the control group. Statistical study techniques were applied using the licensed software package Statistica. The differences of р<0.05, р<0.01, р<0.001 were considered statistically significant.
 Results. 
 The comparative study of children diagnosed with autoimmune thyroiditis and those with no thyroid pathology showed that euthyroidism was diagnosed in 78.31% of patients in the primary observation group, hypothyroidism in 17.39%, and hyperthyroidism in 4.3% of patients. Children diagnosed with autoimmune thyroiditis showed thyroperoxidase antibody levels ranging from 209.7 to 694.7 IU/mL, TSH from 0.01 to 5.93 to 89.9 IU/mL, and free T4 from 1.14 to 28.8 ng/dL. The criteria for early diagnosis of autoimmune thyroiditis included: a burdened familial history of thyroid disease (15.9%); complaints of psychoemotional, neurological (35.6%) and heart rhythm disorders (14.4%), predominantly in boys (58.2% and 18.18%), prolonged low-grade fever (5.3%), predominantly in girls (6.5%); comorbid conditions: respiratory tract diseases (25.76%) and lymphadenitis (28.03%); ultrasonic changes of the thyroid gland with increased (31.06%) or decreased (4.55%) volume, cystous nodules (40.15%), increased vascular pulsation (39%) and changes in echogenicity of the thyroid gland.
 Conclusion. 
 At the current stage, early diagnosis of autoimmune thyroiditis in children is important for the timely prevention of the negative impact of the disease on the functional state and development of the child's body.

Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland Depending on the Day of the Week Using Neural Networks

A very large number of people are killed on the roads. Although the value is decreasing from year to year and the pandemic has reduced the number of traffic accidents even further, the number is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to find out on which days of the week the highest number of traffic accidents occur, and to know the accident forecast for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize the analyzed value.The aim of the article is to develop a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the days of the week. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of road accidents in Poland by days of the week were analyzed on the basis of Police data. Based on this data, a forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2024 was made in Statistica software. Selected neural network models were used to forecast the number of road accidents. The results show that we can still expect a reduction in the number of road accidents on Polish roads, but the prevailing pandemic disturbs the results obtained. The choice of the number of random samples (learning, testing and validation) affects the obtained results.

ПЕРСОНИФИЦИРОВАННЫЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ РИСКА РАЗВИТИЯ ПОВТОРНЫХ СЕРДЕЧНО-СОСУДИСТЫХ СОБЫТИЙ И ХРОНИЧЕСКОЙ БОЛЕЗНИ ПОЧЕК У ПАЦИЕНТОВ С ИНФАРКТОМ МИОКАРДА И ОСТРЫМ ПОВРЕЖДЕНИЕМ ПОЧЕК

Introduction: AKI (acute kidney injury) is a common comorbid condition in patients with AMI (acute myocardial infarction), complicating its course and treatment. In the future, the prognosis of these patients after discharge from the hospital, as well as the incidence of recurrent cardiovascular events (CVS) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not known. The purpose of the study: to study the predictors of the development of recurrent cardiovascular events (CVS) in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) with acute kidney injury (AKI). Develop a calculator - a risk meter for repeated CCC. Materials and methods: the study was performed in the Altai Regional Cardiological Dispensary. 193 patients with MI and PCI (percutaneous coronary intervention) were included, divided into 2 groups: the first - 123 patients aged 62.8±1.1 years with MI and AKI, the second - 70 patients without AKI, age 61.3± 1.6 years. Upon admission and before discharge, the level of the KIM-1 molecule (Kidney Injury Molecule-1) and IL-18 (interleukin-18) was studied by ELISA in the urine. All patients underwent coronary angiography using low-osmolar contrast. One year after discharge, the frequency of development of repeated CCC was assessed. Statistical calculations were carried out using statistical packages STATISTICA 12.0. The level of statistical significance was taken equal to 0.05. Results. The level of KIM-1 (at admission) in the first group was statistically higher than in the second: 1998.9±147.6 versus 1289.8±126.1 pg/ml p=0.001, and IL-18 in the AKI group exceeded the corresponding parameter of the group without AKI: 179.0±12.9 versus 114.9±11.5 pg/ml p=0.007, respectively. A year later, it was found that the frequency of recurrent cardiovascular events was higher in the group with AMI and AKI: unstable angina was diagnosed in 26 (21.1%) patients in the group with AKI and 5 (7.1%) patients without AKI in history, p=0.010; 19 (15.4%) and 2 (2.8%) patients, p=0.006, 20 (16.2%) and 3 (4.2%), p=0.013 patients, respectively, had repeated myocardial infarction and progression of CHF in a year . Progression of renal dysfunction during the year was observed 5 times more often in patients with MI and AKI: CKD C2 was diagnosed in 49 (39.8%) patients of the first group and 16 (22.8%) of the second, p = 0.01; CKD C3a and C3b stages - in 34 (27.6%), p˂0.001 and 19 (15.4%) patients, p=0.002, respectively, CKD stage C4 was detected in 4 (3.2%) patients of the group with AMI and AKI in the early postinfarction period. As a result of constructing a multifactorial logistic regression model, predictors were identified that have a multiplicative effect on the development of recurrent CV events: BMI over 25 kg/m2 increases the risk of recurrent CV events by 0.91 [0.83; 0.99] times, p=0.028, history of prior MI in 3.32 [1.24; 9.86] times, p=0.022. Increase in CRP by 1.01 [1; 1.03] times, p=0.045, troponin I, 0.97 [0.94;1] times, p=0.037, and IMT-1, 1 [1;1] times, p=0.030. On the development of CKD: an increase in age is associated with an increase in the chances of developing CKD by 1.18 [1.1; 1.29], p ˂0.001; troponin I by 0.96 times [0.92; 1], p=0.030; systolic blood pressure in 1.03 [1; 1.07] times, p = 0.029. A calculator has been developed for risk stratification of the development of recurrent CV events and an algorithm for managing this category of patients after discharge from the hospital. Conclusions: thus, the identified predictors make it possible to calculate the risk of developing recurrent CV events and CKD using the developed calculator and allocate these patients to a separate group for personalized observation, taking appropriate measures of secondary prevention.

ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ АНАЛОГА ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКОГО ГЛЮКАГОНОПОДОБНОГО ПЕПТИДА-1 ЛИРАГЛУТИДА У ПАЦИЕНТОВ С ПОДАГРОЙ И МЕТАБОЛИЧЕСКИ НЕЗДОРОВЫМ ФЕНОТИПОМ ОЖИРЕНИЯ

Introduction. Obesity is a global problem of the XXI century. The most important aspect of metabolic disorders that develop with obesity is a change in the level of serum uric acid (UA) in the blood and the development of gout. Currently, the dynamics of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with obesity on the background of drug therapy is being widely studied. The aim of our study is to study the level of UA, vaspin (VsP), visfatin (VF), omentin (ITLN1), retinol-binding protein-4 (RBP4) in patients with gout and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MNHO) during diet therapy and 3 months of treatment with the drug from the group of human glucagon-like peptide-1 analog (aGLP-1) Liraglutide. Materials and methods: 25 men with gout were examined, the average age was 43.6±7.3 years. Gout was diagnosed according to the classification criteria ACR/EULAR, 2015, Wallace S.L., 1977. Metabolic syndrome was established according to the criteria of GNCA (2013): abdominal obesity - waist circumference ≥ 94 cm in combination with any 2 from the following criteria - an increase in triglycerides (TG) ≥ 1.7 mmol / l; a decrease in high-density lipoproteins (HDL) < 1.0 mmol / l, an increase in low-density lipoproteins (LDL) ≥3.0 mmol / l, blood pressure (BP) ≥ 140/90 mm Hg; increase in plasma glucose ≥ 6.1 mmol / l. At the time of inclusion in the study, all patients had an interictal period of gout. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated using the Quetelet formula: body weight (kg)/height (m²). To assess the type of distribution of adipose tissue, the waist circumference (WT, cm) and hip circumference (HB) were measured with a flexible centimeter tape, with the calculation of the W/H ratio. The concentration of VsP, VF, ITLN1, RBP4 was studied using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method using the kits; the concentration of the level of UA in blood serum and daily urine was studied using the colorimetric method. Liraglutide was injected into the subcutaneous fat of the anterior abdominal wall at a dose of 0.6 mg once a day for the first week. Escalation by 0.6 mg every week was then recommended until a dose of 18 mg per day was reached. Participants then received injections at a dose of 1.8 mg for 3 months. Thus, the observation period was 3 months. Laboratory studies and assessment of anthropometric parameters were carried out initially, as well as after 3 months. The control group consisted of 16 healthy men matched in age. Statistical data processing was carried out using the statistical software package Statistica 13.0. Results. 3 months after treatment, a statistically significant decrease in body weight, BMI and WC was noted (in all cases, p<0.01). Median BMI before treatment was ˗ 38.4 [35.4; 39.2] kg/m², against the background of ongoing therapy - 33.2 [31.4; 34.2] kg/m², and thus the loss of body weight was 23% (p<0.05). Serum UA level decreased by 30.1% (p<0.05) during therapy with a drug from the GLP-1 group. In patients with gout, BMI and regression of obesity were associated with a significant decrease in VsP by 17.2%, VF by 13.8% and RBP4 by 10.4%, and a significant increase in ITLN1 by 12.6%. A direct correlation was established between BMI and WC with the content of VsP, RBP4 and VF in blood serum (correlation coefficients from 0.44 to 0.57, p<0.05) and an inverse correlation with the content of ITLN1 (correlation coefficient -0.29, p<0.05). A direct correlation was found between the serum UA index and the content of VsP, VF, RBP4 (correlation coefficients from 0.31 to 0.49, p<0.05). Conclusion. Patients with gout in combination with MNZO showed a significant increase in serum levels of UA, VsP, RBP4 and VF, against the background of a decrease in the concentration of ITLN1. The use of diet therapy using a drug from the GLP-1 group showed a statistically significant decrease in BMI, WC, serum UA, pro-inflammatory adipokines (VsP, VF and RBP4), and a significant increase in anti-inflammatory cytokines (ITLN1).

Spatio-temporal study of water quality variables in the Rio de Ondas Hydrographic Basin, west of Bahia, Brazil using multivariate analysis.

Water bodies are containers that receive a large load of water quality variables through the release of domestic, industrial, and agricultural effluents. With this focus, this work aimed to conduct a temporal-spatial variability study in the Rio de Ondas Hydrographic Basin through multivariate statistical analysis. For this, seventeen collection sites were established in four stations along the Rio de Ondas and its tributaries between 2017 and 2018. Ionic chromatography with suppressed conductivity was used for ions determination, while ICP-OES determined metals' total concentrations. The land use and occupation assessment between 1985 and 2021 was using data from MapBiomas were used and the descriptive and multivariate analysis of the data using version free of the Statistica software. The results showed that, in 30 years, there was a growth of 569% of agricultural activities in the watershed area, with significant suppression of native vegetation, favoring the transport of contaminants to rivers. Ca2+, PO42-, Al, Cu, and Zn concentrations showed a statistically significant difference between the seasons, with higher medians in the rainy season. Rainy season influenced the formation of three groups in the PCA, consisting of electrical conductivity, salinity, TDS, and PO42- (group 1); temperature, Fe, SO42-, and Cl- (group 2); and Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, and HCO3- (group 3). The strong correlation between parameters of each group indicates anthropic influence on the watershed's water quality. However, levels are within the potability standard.

Qualidade da água em áreas de barragens subterrâneas do semiárido potiguar

ABSTRACT The federal public agencies have prioritized the financing of underground dams as a strategy to decrease water scarcity in rural semiarid regions in Brazil. The objective of this work was to evaluated water quality in underground dams, for agricultural irrigation purposes, in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, at the end of the dry season in 2018 and at the end of the rainy season in 2019. The variables with the greatest impact on water quality were identified through multivariate analysis, using the software Statistica 7.0. The results showed that concentrations of variables correlated with salinity and ion toxicity in water of the dams decreased after the rainy season, whereas those correlated with clogging of localized irrigation systems increased. Salinity, sodicity, and/or toxicity in areas of underground dams were correlated with natural mineralization of geological components of soils; however, they also were affected by rainfall with marine hygroscopic nuclei, presence of rural clusters and corrals, and decomposition of organic matter in the damming area. The variables correlated with salinity presented higher effect on the hydrochemical variability of water within these dams in both sampling periods; electrical conductivity and chloride ions were the most significant variables.

Relationship between alcohol and primary headaches: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundHeadache is one of the most common neurological symptoms. Many previous studies have indicated a relationship between primary headaches and alcohol. Drinking has been associated with increased risk of tension-type headache (TTH) and migraine. However, recently published studies have not confirmed this relationship. The existing literature is inconclusive; however, migraine patients avoid alcohol. Therefore, the primary objective was to provide a reliable assessment of alcohol intake in people with primary headaches; the secondary objective was to identify any potential relationship between alcohol consumption and headache risk.MethodsThis study was based on PubMed, Embase and Web of Science database searches performed on 11 July 2023. This systematic review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023412926). Risk of bias for the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools. Meta-analyses were performed using Statistica software. The Risk Ratio (RR) was adopted as the measure of the final effect. Analyses were based on a dichotomous division of the respondents into "non-drinkers" and "drinkers" for headache patients and matched non-headache groups.ResultsFrom a total of 1892 articles, 22 were included in the meta-analysis. The majority demonstrated a moderate or high risk of bias. The first part of the meta-analysis was performed on data obtained from 19 migraine studies with 126 173 participants. The risk of migraine in alcohol drinkers is approximately 1.5 times lower than in the group of non-drinkers (RR = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.57–0.89). The second part involved 9 TTH studies with 28 715 participants. No relationship was found between TTH diagnosis and alcohol consumption (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.93–1.27). Two of the included cluster-headache articles had inconclusive results.ConclusionsAlcohol consumption and migraine are inversely correlated. The exact mechanism behind this observation may indicate that migraine leads to alcohol-avoidance, rather than alcohol having any protective role against migraine. There was no relationship between TTH and drinking. However, further studies related to primary headaches and alcohol consumption with low risk of bias are required. Additionally, patients and physicians should consider the latest medical data, in order to avoid the myths about alcohol consumption and primary headaches.

Role of passive and active myostimulation for the changing levels of some cytokines

Injury to the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) of the knee joint is complicated by development of arthrogenic muscle inhibition due to disregulating afferent influences on the excitability of the spinal and supraspinal tracts. The aim of our work was to study electromyography parameters, and myokine levels in the course of myostimulation in traumatic ACL injury.
 28 male athletes with traumatic ACL injuries participated in the study. On admission to the clinic, all patients underwent electromyographic examination of the injured limb by the means of Viking Quest EMG/ EP apparatus (Nicolet, USA). Some patients, 10 days before starting the surgical treatment, underwent passive electrical myostimulation (EMS) of the quadriceps femoris muscle using the INTELECT Advanced device (Chattanooga (DJO), USA). Further on, all patients underwent arthroplasty using a Karl Storz arthroscope (Germany). In the postoperative period, during immobilization for 2-weeks, the patients received EMS. After removing the orthosis, the patients switched to active training. The cytokine levels were studied using ELISA reagent kits from Vector-Best, Novosibirsk (IL-6), or from Cloud-Clone Corp. (China) for TGF1assays. Statistical processing of the material was carried out using the Statistica package. vers.10.0 (StatSoft Inc., USA).
 The highest average amplitude (V) was recorded by electromyography in healthy individuals. In patients of the main group, significantly lower values of the average amplitude were recorded. After a 10-day EMS, a significant increase to the reference values of healthy individuals was noted. In the postsurgical dynamics, EMG indicators without EMS treatment remained at the same low levels. Meanwhile, the values following EMS treatment were comparable with those in healthy individuals, thus reflecting a faster and better muscle recovery after injury. The levels of IL-6 and TGF-1 cytokines (myokines) significantly exceeded the initial levels in the course of EMS. The biological significance of increased IL-6 levels during the muscle exercise may consist the activation of AMP kinase and/or phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase at the level of skeletal muscles thus providing more efficient supply of energy substrate to the muscles. TGF-1 promotes fibroblast proliferation, thus increasing collagen content.
 Passive and active EMS leads to an improvement in electromyography parameters, along with increased concentration of myokines (IL-6 and TGF-1) in peripheral blood, thus promoting improvement of energy balance, increasing the anti-inflammatory and repair potential of the damaged tissues.

Immunological features of out-of-hospital pneumonia in children vaccinated with pneumococcal vaccine

Аim. To identify the immunological features of out-of-hospital pneumonia in vaccinated children, to assess their impact on the severity of the disease.Materials and methods. The study was conducted in 2017-2019. 85 children with various degrees of severity were hospitalized in Karaganda from 2 months to 3 years. They were divided into 2 groups: the first included vaccinated children (n=45), the second included children with impaired vaccination (n=40). The control group consisted of 20 children.The calculation and evaluation of the results obtained was carried out on an IBM compatible computer with the Windows XP operating system using the MS Excel 2017 (Microsoft), SPSS 12.0.2 and Statistica 20 software package. Statistical analysis was carried out using the STATISTICA package. Numerical data is represented by indicators such as Me (median), Q1 (L-quartile or lower quartile point) and Q3 (U-quartile or upper quartile point). Kruskall-Wallace criterion calculated [Kruskall W., Walles W. A.]. The differences were considered statistically significant at p < 0.05.Results and discussion. The quantitative indicator of anti-inflammatory MCP-1 cytokines in vaccinated children with severe nosocomial pneumonia in early childhood is 7.21 [5.25; 9.03] pg/ml Me [Q1; Q3], and in children with immunization disorders-15.18 [6.13; 50.11] pg/ml Me [Q1; Q3] (Kruskal criteria-Wallis p<0.05). In children aged 2 months to 3 years, the quantitative indicator of anti-inflammatory cytokines MCP-1 in vaccinated children with mild nosocomial pneumonia is 2.13 [0.01; 3.02] pg/ml Me [Q1; Q3], and in children with immunization disorders –3.46 [0.04; 6.74] pg/ml Me [Q1; Q3].

A New Method for Selecting the Geometry of Systems for Surface Infiltration of Stormwater with Retention

The application of infiltration basins and tanks is one of the primary means of sustainable stormwater management. However, the methods currently used to size these facilities do not take into account a number of parameters that have a significant impact on their required capacity. In light of this, the aim of this research was to develop a new method for selecting the geometry of the infiltration basins and tanks. Its application in the initial phase of designing stormwater management systems will allow assessing the validity of using such facilities in a given catchment area. This paper also presents the results of local and global sensitivity analyses examining how changes in individual design parameters influence stormwater infiltration facilities. The effectiveness of the developed model was evaluated through the example of a real urban catchment. The study was based on a hydrodynamic analysis of more than 3000 model catchments. The research plan was developed using Statistica software. On the other hand, the analysis of the results of hydrodynamic simulations was made possible through the use of artificial neural networks designed using the Python programming language. The research also confirmed that parameters such as the total catchment area, the percent of impervious area, and the type of soil within the catchment are crucial in the design process of these facilities. The results of this research can be considered when designing infiltration basins and tanks under Polish conditions. The described algorithm can also be used by other researchers to develop similar models based on different rainfall data. This will contribute to increasing the safety of urban infrastructure.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and thyroid dysfunction in children

The problem of thyroid dysfunction related to SARS-CoV-2 infection remains unclear in children. Therefore, the study aimed to reveal the interrelationship between thyroid dysfunction and COVID-19 severity­ as well as to determine optimal cut-off values for screening for thyroid disorders in children. A total number of 90 children aged from 1 month to 17 years were involved in the study. Patients with known thyroid disease were not recruited for the research. A thyroid panel was assessed for all participants that included: free triiodothyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4), thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and anti-thyroid peroxidase (ATPO) antibodies. Statistical analysis was done using the computer software Statistica 13.0. Research has revealed euthyroid sick syndrome (ESS) in 14.10% of SARS-CoV-2 infected children more often among patients with severe COVID-19 and multisystem inflammatory syndrome (33.33%) compared to mild COVID-19 course (6.67%) and moderate disease severity (8.89%) (P < 0.05). Significant correlation relationships were revealed for next values – FT3 and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (rs = -0.22; P < 0.05); FT3 and C-reactive protein (CRP) (rs = -0.33; P < 0.05); FT3 and procalcitonin (rs = -0.43; P < 0.05). The next cut-off values for ESS determination were revealed: ESR 18.5 mm/h (AUC 0.803); CRP 11.5 mg/l (AUC 0.763); ferritin 84.8 ng/ml (AUC 0.733). Results suggest that pediatricians should pay attention to the endocrine disruptions by COVID-19 in children. Keywords: COVID-19, euthyroid sick syndrome in children, inflammatory markers

Degree and depth of hardening under pendulum surface plastic deformation of carbon steel

The article discusses influence of the main technological parameters of pendulum surface plastic deformation (SPD) on the mechanical properties of surface layer of cylindrical parts made of carbon steel. Using the hardness tester HBRV-187.5 and the microhardness tester HMV-G21, we determined hardness of the surface layer, microhardness and depth of the work-hardened layer of hardened parts. In addition, the results of calculating the hardening degree are presented, which is important information for evaluating the effectiveness of SPD method in terms of improving the metal mechanical properties. Experimental studies showed that after pendulum SPD (at different processing modes), hardness of the surface layer increases by 9 – 12 % compared to hardness of the original surface, and the microhardness increases by 1.5 – 1.7 times, which leads to a significant hardening of the cylindrical billet surface layer. Depth of the hardened layer varies in the range of 0.9 – 1.1 mm, while the hardening degree is 45 – 65 %. Using the software package Statistica 10.1, which allows solving optimization problems based on statistical analysis and building an optimization model, we determined the optimal modes of hardening by pendulum SPD. These modes simultaneously provide both the maximum depth of the hardened layer and the highest hardening degree of the surface layer. They are formed under the following processing modes: radial interference t = 0.15 – 0.2 mm; longitudinal feed s = 0.07 – 0.11 mm/rev; billet rotation frequency nb = 160 – 200 min−1; frequency of the working tool pendulum movement nt = 110 – 130 strokes/min; angular amplitude of the working tool α = 35 – 40°. According to the results of experimental data and numerical calculations, it was established that the average grain size in pendulum SPD decreases by 30 – 40 % compared to the initial size, and the dislocation density increases by 2.5 times.

Morphofunctional characteristics of the skin in the assessment of adaptive capabilities in wild boars (sus scrofa scrofa (l., 1758)

The study of the mammalian skin reveals a wide range of adaptations of animals and their organs to various conditions of existence.The aim of the work is to establish, on the basis of factual material, the morphological and functional features of the skin of wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa (Linnaeus 1758)) in conditions of adaptation to adverse natural and climatic factors.The skin samples of 6 adult individuals (males) of wild boar (Sus scrofa scrofa) caught in the autumn-winter period were studied. The morphometric parameters of the skin layers and their components were measured, based on the primary data, the total thickness of the skin and epidermis, the ratio of the outer and inner layers of the epidermis were calculated. The established absolute values of indicators (microns) were converted into relative values (%), the ratio of the stratum corneum and the underlying rows of the epidermis was found. The results obtained were processed using the Statistica (6.0) software package.In the studied animals, the skin is quite thick, with a wide variability of the indicator. We noted a well-developed epidermis in the skin of wild boars, its thickness averaged 72.99 microns. The stratum corneum, on average, reached a thickness of 36.13 microns (44.75-56.65% of total epidermis thickness), with a low level of variation (8.58%), which may be genetically deter mined. The dermis of the wild boars’ skin is well developed; it consists of densely packed, medium-sized bundles of collagen fibers that form ties with a heterogeneous binding, which indicates a high density and strength of the skin under mechanical stress and, possibly, is associated with sexual characteristics (the ability of the skin to withstand blows during fights) . Inclusions of adipose tissue were found in the lower layers of the dermis.The sebaceous glands are large, well developed, actively functioning in winter (as evidenced by the lipid mantle of the stratum corneum). A significant level of group variation was established, due to the wide individual variability of the indicators of functionally active structures (skin glands) in the studied animals, while the indicators of other derivatives of the epithelium – hair follicles, were distinguished by a very low level of variability.The data obtained allow us to conclude that the variability of the skin structure and its derivatives in wild boars have a certain significance in the process of adaptation to the effects of adverse climatic conditions, depending on the season of the year.

Risk factors of local recurrence and distant metastasis and manifestations of toxicity during chemoradiation treatment of cervical cancer patients

Relevance. Cervical cancer remains one of the most common malignancies in women worldwide, despite declining mortality rates due to large-scale screening programs and increased use of the human papillomavirus vaccine in Western countries. Although chemoradiotherapy has been recognized as the standard therapy for patients with locally advanced carcinoma, one-third of patients experience recurrence, and the effect of its treatment is far from satisfactory. In addition, factors affecting prognosis for patients with cervical cancer remain controversial. In connection with the above, research devoted to the analysis of the long-term clinical consequences of cervical cancer treatment and the search for prognostic factors remains extremely relevant.
 The purpose of the work is to determine the risk factors of local and distant metastasis and manifestations of toxicity during chemoradiation treatment of cervical cancer patients.
 Materials and methods. Paper case histories of non-operated patients with locally disseminated сervical cancer (stages 2B–4А) who underwent special treatment in the clinic of the institute in the period 1999–2020 were selected from the archive of the State Organization «Grigoriev Institute for Medical Radiology and Oncology of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine» for inclusion in the electronic database. The selection criterion was either a follow-up period of more than 1 year, or a tracked recurrence of the disease within a period of up to 1 year. The end of observation was considered either the death of the patient, or the appearance of oncological consequences of the disease, or withdrawal from observation for unknown reasons (censored observations). The WizWhy package of the Data Mining category was used to conduct the research and propose hypotheses, followed by hypothesis testing by non-parametric statistical methods using the STATISTICA and SPSS general-purpose software package. Non-parametric methods were used – Pearson’s chi-squared test and the Mann–Whitney U-test.
 Results and discussion. A number of parameters and factors that have predictive properties regarding the risk of the appearance of oncological consequences of treatment in the future have been identified. The main immediate and remote consequences of chemoradiation treatment of patients and remote somatic consequences of combined treatment were analyzed.
 Conclusions. Catamnetic data of «processed» case histories, provided they are processed by appropriate mathematical methods, are a potential source for obtaining new non-obvious knowledge. In particular, the correct analytical approach to the processing of formalized medical history data made it possible to find a number of risk factors for local and distant metastasis and manifestations of toxicity during chemoradiation treatment of non-operated patients with locally disseminated cervical cancer, which creates the basis for the development of proposals for adjusting antitumor therapy and individualized patient support.

#4479 KIM-1, IL-18 AND NGAL IN MACHINE LEARNING PREDICTION OF KIDNEY INJURY AMONG CHILDREN UNDERGOING HEMATOPOIETIC STEM CELL TRANSPLANTATION

Abstract Background and Aims Children undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) are particularly vulnerable to acute kidney injury (AKI), especially in the early post-transplantation period. The major risk factors of AKI development are aggressive immunosuppression and infectious complications. In the meantime, malnutrition and hypermetabolic state of the patient, together with the routine intensive hydration during first 3 weeks after HSCT and subsequent forced diuresis, alter the serum creatinine concentration, modifying the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value too. Therefore, the risk of underrating serum creatinine and overrating eGFR values is high, making the assessment of the degree of kidney damage during the first month after HSCT a challenge. Therefore, markers of tubular dysfunction and damage, like kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) or interleukin (IL)-18, may be of added value while assessing renal function and analyzing the risk of AKI in this population. The aim of study was to assess the serum concentrations of damage biomarkers (KIM-1, NGAL, IL-18) in children undergoing alloHSCT, in relation to another surrogate marker of renal dysfunction, hyperfiltration. Another aim was to analyze the potential value of KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18 as predictors of kidney damage in children after alloHSCT, with the use of artificial intelligence tools. Method The study group contained 22 children undergoing alloHSCT, followed up for 4 weeks after transplantation. Serum concentrations of KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18 were assessed by ELISA in fixed time points (before HSCT, 1 day after HSCT, 1, 2 3, 4 weeks after transplantation). eGFR values (counted based on Schwartz formula) and the rate of hyperfiltration (eGFR > 140ml/min/1.73sq.m.) were evaluated at the beginning (before HSCT) and at the end (4 weeks after HSCT) of observation, when neither hydration nor diuretics were used. Statistical analysis was performed with the use of package Statistica, the comparisons between paired data were evaluated by using nonparametric tests (Friedman, Wilcoxon). Additionally, the patients within the database were randomly divided into two groups. The training group allowed to build a Random Forest Classifier (RFC) with the highest possible predictive power, while the testing group allowed to assess the effectiveness of prediction on new data and the clinical utility. Moreover, the contribution of individual variables was evaluated by GINI importance. Results KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18 serum concentrations increased systematically until the 3rd week after HSCT, with statistically significant differences between subsequent observation points, then remained elevated until the 4th week after HSCT. Median eGFR values before transplantation and 4 weeks after HSCT were comparable, although the rate of patients with hyperfiltration increased. The RFC model built on the basis of 3 input variables, KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18 concentrations in serum of children before HSCT, was able to effectively assess the rate of patients with hyperfiltration 4 weeks after the procedure. RF Classifier achieved AUROC of 0.8333, accuracy of 80.00%, positive predictive value of 0.8667, and sensitivity of 0.8000. The contribution of KIM-1, IL-18 and NGAL to the prediction in this model was comparable (33.73%, 32.77%, and 33.5%, respectively). Conclusion KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18 are useful in assessing acute tubular damage in children after HSCT. Their values before HSCT may also serve as markers of incipient renal dysfunction 4 weeks after alloHSCT. The developed model seems a clinically useful tool to target patients who are at risk of kidney injury after HSCT. The Random Forest Classifier seems a promising tool for such analysis, that should be tested on a larger group of patients.

DEPENDENCE OF CARDIOTROPHIN-1 ON BIOCHEMICAL AND HORMONAL FACTORS IN PATIENTS WITH COMORBID PATHOLOGY: ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION, DIABETES MELLITUS TYPE 2 AND OBESITY

The prevalence of arterial hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 DM), and obesity is constantly increasing worldwide. Today, a complex of factors, which primarily include chronic emotional stress, pandemics of infectious diseases, military conflicts, have led to a significant increase in chronic non-communicable diseases. The aim of the study. To determine the dependence of Cardiotrophin-1 on a number of biochemical and hormonal indicators in patients with arterial hypertension, type 2 DM, and obesity, representatives of the Ukrainian population. Materials and methods. The study included 211 patients aged 49 to 65 years, who were divided into groups depending on the pathology: patients with arterial hypertension – 49 persons, Group I; patients with arterial hypertension in combination with class 1 obesity – 54 persons, Group 2; patients with arterial hypertension in combination with type 2 DM – 57 persons, Group 3; patients with arterial hypertension, type 2 DM, class 1 obesity – 51 persons, Group 4; as well as 20 persons – the Control group. Determination of the content of Cardiotrophin-1, catestatin, leptin, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), 25-OH of common vitamin D (Vitamin D3), blood levels was carried out by enzyme immunoassay on Labline-90 analyzer (Austria), using commercial test systems manufactured by FineTest (ELISA, China), BT LAB (ELISA, China), DBC (ELISA, China), Elabscience (ELISA, Canada), Monobind Inc. (ELISA, USA). Statistical data analysis was performed, using the statistical software package Statistica, 12 (Stat Soft Inc, USA), Microsoft Office Excel 2013. Data are shown as mean (M) and standard deviations (δ). An error of less than 5% was considered to be significant (p<0.05). Stepwise regression analysis was used to determine the extent of exposure of the studied indicators to the CTF-1 level, with its effectiveness assessed by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results. Thus, the study indicates that comorbid patients with arterial hypertension, type 2 DM, and obesity are predicted to develop complications from the cardiovascular system and Cardiotrophin-1 is a marker of their development. In the examined patients as a whole, the level of Cardiotrophin-1 is closely related to the peptide-hormonal complex: catestatin, leptin, cystatin C, brain natriuretic peptide, and lipocalin associated with neutrophil gelatinase. Conclusions: The serum concentration of Cardiotrophin-1 in patients with arterial hypertension increases significantly in a progression with the rate of accession of comorbid pathology and its severity. The Cardiotrophin-1 level in patients with comorbid pathology is affected by catestatin, leptin, cystatin C, NT-pro BNP, as well as the level of triglycerides, HDL-C, creatinine, and BMI. Cardiotrophin-1 can be considered as a universal biomarker for the development and progression of cardiovascular disorders in patients with comorbid pathology of arterial hypertension, type 2 DM, and obesity.

CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN SOLVING THE PROBLEM OF TYPOLOGY OF REGIONS OF THE SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT BY THE LEVEL OF INCOME AND PROPERTY POTENTIAL OF THE POPULATION

The article presents the methodology and results of the typology of the regions of the Siberian Federal District in terms of the income and property potential of the population. The authors use the method of multivariate classification — cluster analysis, the application of which in this study was carried out in stages using the Statistica software package. To measure the level of income and property potential of the population, a system of indicators was used, including income, as well as the provision of movable and immovable property to the population. As a result, the authors identified three groups of regions with different levels of income and property potential of the population. An analysis was carried out in which each resulting cluster is compared with the average values for the Siberian Federal District and the Russian Federation, as well as for indicators of the income and property potential of the population. The authors focus on the significant heterogeneity of the regions of the Siberian Federal District in terms of income and property indicators and point out the need for a differentiated approach when making decisions in the field of evidence-based state policy and a long-term strategy for the dynamic growth of the welfare of the population.

Characterization of sheep production systems and their relation with gastrointestinal parasites in four municipalities of Campeche, Mexico

Objective: The increase in the number of sheep in herds is accompanied many times by bad practices, which lead to nutritional deficiencies, rises in parasitism and loss of homeostasis. Therefore, gastrointestinal parasites from sheep were characterized from four municipalities of the state of Campeche.
 Design/methodology/approach: The number of sheep studied was 243, evaluating the body weight, body condition, coloring of the eye mucosae, age, eggs per grams of feces, and family of parasites. The data were analyzed through an ANOVA and Tukey’s means test (P<0.05), as well as Spearman’s correlation analysis using the statistical package Statistica 7.
 Results: Five parasite families were found (Trichostrongyloidae, Strongyloidae, Trichuridae, Eimeriidae and Anoplocephalidae). In the production systems of the municipality of Calakmul the five families of parasites were found, with a parasite load of 3,571 hpg. The family Trichostrongyloidae presented the highest frequency in the municipalities of Champotón and Calakmul with 52 and 75%, respectively. The animals with best body condition, FAMACHA© and lowest parasite load were observed in Hecelchakán.
 Limitations on study/implications: It is suggested to carry out a study of anthelmintic resistance, to establish a management of prevention and control of gastrointestinal parasites.
 Findings/conclusions: The frequency of gastrointestinal parasites is influenced by the management and the municipality of origin within the sheep production systems in the state of Campeche.

Dynamics of link formation in networks structured on the basis of predictive terms

Objectives. In order to model and analyze the information conductivity of complex networks having an irregular structure, it is possible to use percolation theory methods known in solid-state physics to quantify how close the given network is to a percolation transition, and thus to form a prediction model. Thus, the object of the study comprises international information networks structured on the basis of dictionaries of model predictive terms thematically related to cutting-edge information technologies.Methods. An algorithmic approach is applied to establish the sequence of combining the necessary operations for automated processing of textual information by the internal algorithms of specialized databases, software environments and shells providing for their integration during data transmission. This approach comprises the stages of constructing a terminological model of the subject area in the Scopus bibliographic database, then processing texts in natural language with the output of a visual map of the scientific landscape of the subject area in the VOSviewer program, and then collecting the extended data of parameters characterizing the dynamics of the formation of links of the scientific terminological network in the Pajek software environment.Results. Visual cluster analysis of the range of 645-3364 terms in the 2004-2021 dynamics of the memory and data storage technologies category, which are integrated into a total of 23 clusters, revealed active cluster formation in the field of the term quantum memory. On this basis, allowing qualitative conclusions are drawn concerning the local dynamics of the scientific landscape. The exploratory data analysis carried out in the STATISTICA software package indicates the correlation of the behavior of the introduced MADSTA keyword integrator with basic terms including periods of extremes, confirming the correctness of the choice of the methodology for detailing the study by year.Conclusions. A basis is established for the formation of a set of basic parameters required for an extensive computational modeling of a cluster formation in the semantic field of the scientific texts, especially in relation to simulations of the formation of the largest component of the network and percolation transitions.