Since the onset of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), urban older neighborhoods have faced increased vulnerability, prompting research into neighborhood renewal and resilience. However, research on COVID-19 infection and influencing factors in China's older neighborhoods remains relatively scarce. This study analyzed COVID-19 infections in central Shanghai to identify neighborhood-level factors affecting transmission. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and person correlation coefficients (PCC) to process the data, we established multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression models (GWR). To explore nonlinear relationships, we incorporated the random forest method (RF). Results indicated that older neighborhoods had higher infection rates compared to newer ones. Socioeconomic and built environment factors significantly influenced infection rates. Specifically, higher population density, road network density, and the number of subway stations were positively correlated with increased infection rates. RF analysis revealed a complex, nonlinear relationship between the number of high-income residents and infection rates. This study integrates built environment, socioeconomic, and population characteristics factors using multiple modeling approaches to better understand their impact on infection rates. It also introduces research on mainland Chinese cities as case studies, offering valuable insights for updating older urban neighborhoods to enhance community resilience. However, the study did not fully consider the impact of policies at the time, and its findings are primarily applicable to older neighborhoods in cities similar to Shanghai. Future research should examine the effectiveness of various intervention policies, the long-term effects of neighborhood renewal on community resilience, and the applicability of these findings to other urban environments.
Read full abstract