Unemployment Statistics Research Articles

Bridge Unemployment in Germany: Response in Labour Supply to an Increased Early Retirement Age

This study examines an increase in the early retirement age from 60 to 63 for the group of older unemployed men in Germany. As consequence of this policy reform, the time to retirement is increased from the perspective of recently unemployed individuals and therefore serves as a source of exogenous variation. We estimate continuous time hazard models for individuals at risk of leaving the state unemployment into employment or into early retirement due to exceptional rules. We find a positive impact of an increase in the early retirement age on the reemployment probability whereas the probability to retire early due to exceptional rules is not affected.

Broadband and Unemployment: Analysis of Cross-Sectional Data for U.S. Counties

This paper examines the effect of broadband availability on the unemployment rate at the county level in the United States. Using data on broadband availability from the National Broadband Map and census data on unemployment for all 3000-plus counties in the United States, this paper estimates an econometric model that that isolates the effect of broadband deployment after controlling for other factors. This paper builds on our prior work with a smaller sample that found that increasing broadband availability from the current 93% of homes to 100% will reduce unemployment by about 0.5%. An extensive literature exists on the relationship between telecommunications, and specifically broadband, on economic activity and growth with the consensus favoring a generally positive impact (see for example, Crandall, Lehr, & Litan, 2007; Kolko, 2010). However, the evidence in favor of a positive impact on employment is much more tenuous and contradictory. On the one hand, a positive effect on job creation may be expected from the increased economic activity resulting from broadband deployment. On the other hand, broadband technologies may contribute productivity gains negating any need for additional labor. Kolko (2010) has also shown that though broadband contributes to employment generation, it may not significantly affect the unemployment rate because workers are mobile, and relocate or commute to places with higher labor demand. Atasoy (2011) on the contrary, found that broadband deployment has a significant effect on the employment rate, but the effect is stronger in counties with a higher percentage of college graduates and in industries that employ a more educated workforce. The effect of broadband availability on employment is an unresolved question, which requires further investigation. This paper seeks to analyze this question. Past attempts at investigating the relationship between broadband and economic growth were complicated by the lack of adequate data on broadband deployment and availability. Previously accessible data on broadband availability, such as the FCC’s ZIP Code-based broadband availability data have been heavily criticized (Grubesic, 2008; Kolko, 2010; Prieger & Hu, 2008). Beard, Ford and Saba (2010) used the 2007 Computer and Internet Use Supplement of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, but this data too is more than six years old and out-of-date. Thus, National Broadband Map data present an attractive opportunity to test the relationship between broadband availability and employment, despite caveats such as the incomplete information and lack of pricing data pointed out by Grubesic (2012), and the measurement errors and selection bias identified by Ford (2011). In this paper, we test the hypothesis that better broadband availability will be associated with lower county unemployment rates. The county is chosen as the unit of analysis, since it is small enough to capture local variations but large enough to constitute a reasonable labor market. Data on broadband availability and employment are collected from the National Broadband Map and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) database, for all 3000-plus counties in the United States. We use multiple regression is then used to analyze the data. To control for the effect of education levels found by Atasoy (2011), we also include the percentages of the county workforce with a high school diploma as a control, along with average age and race. Controls are also included for the effects of changes in construction and real estate spending (a critical factor affecting unemployment rates over the last 6 years), and for changes in the statewide economy, since county unemployment rates may be responding to wider regional trends. Results obtained for counties drawn from a sample of 8 states (N=430) representing different combinations of economic development (state per capita income above or below the national poverty line) and urbanization (percentage of state population resident in urban areas above or below the national mean) indicate that there is a negative correlation between the county unemployment rate and broadband availability. Despite the care we took to select a representative sample of states, purposive sampling may still introduce biases in the results — including the entire population is expected to remedy this. Full results for the population of 3000 counties will be available in time for TPRC.

US–Mexican Economic Integration and its Effects on Unemployment in Mexico's Northern Border States

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of the economic activity of the US–Mexico trans-border region on the unemployment rate of the northern border states of Mexico. A panel data econometric model is established to relate changes in the unemployment rate to changes in the GDP of the Mexican and American border states, as well as changes in Mexican wages and border trade. Panel data models were estimated using fixed and random estimations; the results showed that wages had a positive correlation with respect to the unemployment rate. The GDP of the Mexican border states and the GDP of the US border states exhibited a negative relationship with respect to the unemployment rate. These results corroborate a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP of the Mexican border states but, most importantly, with the GDP of the US border states, providing evidence that the economic integration at the border region has created a situation where the labor market of the northern border states of Mexico depends on the economic activity of the US border states.

The Great Recession and State Unemployment Trends

The recession that began in January 2008 was the deepest business downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This recession has been referred to as The Great Recession due to its severity and the length of its duration. As the U.S. economy has experienced a shift in its industrial structure toward an ever-larger service sector, there is a literature that argues that economic fluctuations should be less than was the case in a goods-production dominated economy, as it is presumed that the demand for services is less cyclical than the demand for goods. The Great Recession challenges this presumption. This article reports on the unemployment experience of states through the Great Recession with regard to their industrial structure, finding that there is a correlation between industrial structure and unemployment trends.

Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates in US: Evidence from Regional Data

Unemployment rate is an important social indicator for unhappiness. This paper explores the informational value of the United States unemployment rate via examining whether the labor-force participation rate is featured with non-stationary processes from the geographical location perspective. We apply the recently developed flexible Fourier stationarity test proposed by Enders and Lee (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 74:574–599 2012). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), ADF-GLS and KPSS univariate tests, we find little evidence for stationarity; and (2) when we employ the flexible Fourier univariate test with consider of structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 45 out of 51 states. Based on our results, we argue that the unemployment rate alone, without understanding participation behavior, does not provide an overall picture for the melancholy jobless people.

Tracking the Careers of Graduates: A New Agenda for Graduate Schools

As candidates in the 2012 election debated issues raised by the state of the US economy, unemployment statistics and job creation took center stage. The problems under discussion posed (and continu...

Community Constraints and Outreach of Some Flagship Programs: A Case Study from Uttarakhand Hills

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship between constraints in rural unemployment status, educational statistics and vocational job limits for local development through a case study of a geographically isolated and economically poor rural area of Uttarakhand Himalayas. Most of the hill village community in India, including Uttarakhand, have very poor options of quality and sustainable school education and employment generation. Also, these areas are plagued with limited sources of livelihood options in the local places. The present study assesses community outcomes across three dimensions: Educational and Health improvement, and Common employment generation. It was observed that under modernized perspectives, this effort has significant positive effects on the first two dimensions, but economic impact has been far less pronounced, raising questions about fast out migration and planning polices of the State and Central Government. Vocational job promotion and public-private partnership in local employment generation can act as a new catalyst for rural economic revitalization.

Unemployment among the Youth – the Most Crucial Challenge in the Social Policy of the European Union

Now, unemployment among young generation of the Europeans is one of the most crucial problems in the policy of European Union and of the Member States. The economic crisis caused social exclusion of the significant part of the youth who after graduation augments number of the unemployed. Young generation shows less interest in running own business. Fear of bankruptcy forcibly decreases economic activity. European Union for few years has been undertaking measures aiming at coordination of the systems combating unemployment in the Member States. In the same time, it has been developing programs supporting actions undertaken in various states in the field of creating jobs, vocational trainings and probations addressed to the youth. Lowering unemployment rate among the youth is one of the priorities of the strategy Europe 2020. European politicians think that unemployment may be decreased based on the active “knowledge triangles” in which education of various levels, employers and business institutions participate and act together. Economic analysts however underline that unemployment among the youth may be decreased only when global economic growth occurs.

Spurious Seasonal Patterns and Excess Smoothness in the BLS Local Area Unemployment

State level unemployment statistics are some of the most important and widely used data sources for local analysts and public officials to gauge the health of their state’s economy. We find statistically significant seasonal patterns in the state level seasonally adjusted Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We find that the pro-rata factors used in the benchmarking process can invoke spurious seasonal patterns in this data. We also find that the Henderson 13 filter used by the BLS to smooth the seasonally adjusted data may reduce monthly volatility too much in the sense that the aggregated state data is much smoother than the independently estimated national data. To reduce these problems, we suggest that the BLS use seasonally adjusted data when benchmarking regions to national totals.

Broadband Availability and Employment: An Analysis of County-Level Data from the National Broadband Map

Abstract Does investment in broadband infrastructure reduce unemployment? Yes, answer Jayakar and Park, reviewing broadband availability data from the National Broadband Map and unemployment statistics. Their study covers eight states selected according to a variety of demographic and economic criteria to represent a range of comparable states. The level of analysis was the county, and the sample was all 415 counties in the selected states. Jayakar and Park conclude that counties with better broadband availability had lower unemployment rates in 2011 even after controlling for other factors.

1374 – Suicides and the economic crisis: the icelandic experience

Introduction Iceland has taken a significant economic toll following the recession starting in late 2008. Unemployment has risen sharply, personal and business bankruptcies too. Aim The aim of this paper to examine the possible impact of the social consequences of the economic crisis on the suicide rate. Methods The Icelandic Bureau of Statistics publications, Causes of Death Register, Unemployment Statistics and Purchase Power Index, were utilized. The suicide rate is based on those between 16 and 90 years, per 100.000 inhabitants. The unemployment rate includes those 16-74 years old. Due to the small population size data are presented as three-year averages from 1981-2010. Results The unemployment rate during this period was 0.5-3.0%, with a slightly higer rate in the mid-nineties, until mid- 2008, when it rose rapidly, peaking in 2010 at 8.1%. The suicide rate has declined, particularly during the last ten years, 13.4- 16.5/100.000, with no signs of paralleling the unemployment increase from 2008 onwards. There is one exception, the region with the highest unemployment rate in the past 10 years. The suicide rate there has been high, rising sharply in the past three years. The sample size is small, so this must be interpreted with caution. Conclusion The suicide rate has been relatively stable in Iceland, and not affected by the current economic crisis. There are signs, though, that that the region hardest hit by the unemployment is at a higher risk for suicides.

Broadband Availability and Employment: An Analysis of County-Level Data from the National Broadband Map

Abstract Does investment in broadband infrastructure reduce unemployment? Yes, answer Jayakar and Park, reviewing broadband availability data from the National Broadband Map and unemployment statistics. Their study covers eight states selected according to a variety of demographic and economic criteria to represent a range of comparable states. The level of analysis was the county, and the sample was all 415 counties in the selected states. Jayakar and Park conclude that counties with better broadband availability had lower unemployment rates in 2011 even after controlling for other factors.

Does Federally-Funded Job Training Work? Nonexperimental Estimates of WIA Training Impacts Using Longitudinal Data on Workers and Firms

We study the job training provided under the US Workforce Investment Act (WIA) to adults and dislocated workers in two states. Our substantive contributions center on impacts estimated non-experimentally using administrative data. These impacts compare WIA participants who do and do not receive training. In addition to the usual impacts on earnings and employment, we link our state data to the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) data at the U.S. Census Bureau, which allows us to estimate impacts on the characteristics of the firms at which participants find employment. We find moderate positive impacts on employment, earnings and desirable firm characteristics for adults, but not for dislocated workers. Our primary methodological contribution consists of assessing the value of the additional conditioning information provided by the LEHD relative to the data available in state Unemployment Insurance (UI) earnings records. We find that value to be zero.

State Unemployment In Recessions During 1991–2009 Was Linked To Faster Growth In Medicare Spending

During the US recession of 2007-09, overall health care spending growth fell, but Medicare spending growth increased. Using state-level data from the period 1991-2009, we show that these divergent trends were also observed within states. Furthermore, increases in state unemployment rates were associated with higher Medicare spending per capita and increased hospital use by Medicare beneficiaries. For example, a one-percentage-point point rise in the unemployment rate was associated with a $40 (0.7 percent) increase in Medicare spending per capita. Our results suggest that economic downturns contribute to Medicare spending and use. One of many possible explanations may be that health care providers have greater capacity, inclination, and financial incentive to treat Medicare patients during recessions as a result of slackening demand from the non-Medicare population.

Along the Hindu Kush: Warren Hastings, the Raj, and the Northwest Frontier

Along the Hindu Kush:Warren Hastings, the Raj, and the Northwest Frontier Kenneth W. Harl (bio) As a new presidential election approaches, many Americans, when they are not thinking about gasoline prices and unemployment statistics, wonder how the national interests are served by U.S. soldiers and pilots battling in a remote corner of the world, Afghanistan. Americans are aware of the less than ideal alliance with President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, and the repeated disputes, negotiations, and scandals that have rocked this alliance. Many are aware of how the fighting in Afghanistan has spread over the Hindu Kush— the daunting mountain barrier that divides Central Asia from the Indian subcontinent—into Pakistan. Osama bin Laden sought refuge in Pakistan. Both al-Qaeda and the Taliban operatives have found safe havens in Pakistan's rugged borderlands. Political events in Pakistan since 2008 have thus excited reporters and baffled the American electorate. Pervez Musharraf, leading general and ex-president, was compelled to resign and flee from prosecution on grounds of complicity in the assassination of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and his suspension of constitutional rule. An exile in London, he plans a political comeback. Meanwhile, the current prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gillani, has had his hands full with his own crises and clashes with his military that have arisen ultimately from the fighting in Afghanistan. Most Americans are aware that the imbroglio in Afghanistan and Pakistan has wider repercussions for Iran, the Republic of India, and the far more remote Central Asian republics of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Yet most Americans are also products of today's ahistorical educational system and have no historical reference for comprehending these events, peoples, and lands. Those few remaining of the generation that won the Second World War have such a sense of history. Those few also witnessed the partition of British India, along with its religious and ethnic violence and then fierce fighting between India and Pakistan over Kashmir and Jammu. Indeed, the British imperial legacy in India has dictated much of what goes on today in these newly created nation-states along both sides of the Hindu Kush. The imperial legacy of British India is fundamental for understanding what we face today in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Central Asia. Two men are customarily hailed as the founders of the British Empire in India: Sir Robert Clive (1725-1774) and Warren Hastings (1732-1818). They turned the East India Company from a trade monopoly into the paramount military power in the subcontinent with a fiscal and military base in Bengal. Click for larger view View full resolution From Alfred Comyn Lyall, Warren Hastings (London, 1889). To Lord Macaulay, Whig politician, secretary at war (1839-1841), and historian, Robert Clive was a brave and daring conqueror comparable to Julius Caesar, the obvious standard for all proper Englishmen who learned their Caesar and Latin together in public school. Yet, given his dissolute recreation at Madras between campaigns and his appetite for prize money, Clive did not fit the proper Victorian model. Indian nationalists despise Clive because he so adeptly outmaneuvered Indian princes in the duplicitous diplomacy of the era. Clive was also extraordinarily lucky. No commander in the 18th century was missed by more musket balls and shrapnel. His victory at Plassey on June 23, 1757, was both audacious and decisive. It won for the East India Company, commonly dubbed the Honorable Company, control over Bengal and the right to collect taxes from the wealthiest provinces of the Mughal Empire under the Treaty of Allahabad.1 If Robert Clive proved the victor, Warren Hastings, the first governor-general at Calcutta (1773-1785), was the organizer of the empire in India, which came to be called the Raj after the reforms instituted in the wake of the Great Sepoy Mutiny in 1857-1858. Warren Hastings, however, is a far more complex a figure than Clive, and ultimately far more important; for he created India as we understand it today. Hastings started working for the Honorable Company as a clerk when he was 18 and rose quickly, sitting on the councils of both Calcutta and Madras. He was selected to govern British India, then divided into...

Institutions, Politics, and Mental Health Parity

Mental health parity laws require insurers to extend comparable benefits for mental and physical health care. Proponents argue that by placing mental health services alongside physical health services, such laws can help ensure needed treatment and destigmatize mental illness. Opponents counter that such mandates are costly or unnecessary. The authors offer a sociological account of the diffusion and spatial distribution of state mental health parity laws. An event history analysis identifies four factors as especially important: diffusion of law, political ideology, the stability of mental health advocacy organizations and the relative health of state economies. Mental health parity is least likely to be established during times of high state unemployment and under the leadership of conservative state legislatures.

Does misery love company? Civic engagement in economic hard times

We examine how economic hardship affects civic engagement. Using the Roper Political and Social Trends data, we show that the unemployed were less civically engaged throughout the period covered in the data (1973–1994). The gap in civic engagement between the employed and the unemployed is stable throughout the period. We find little evidence that national economic recession affects the overall level of civic engagement. We do find that higher state unemployment is positively related to political participation for both employed and unemployed residents, especially for political partisans. Finally, we find a strong and negative relationship between state-level income inequality and civic engagement. Our findings suggest that in terms of civic engagement: (1) the state-level economic context matters more than the national context; (2) economic recession may affect political and non-political civic participation differently; (3) economic inequality, rather than economic hardship, appears more negatively to impact civic engagement.

Creativity and the crisis: The impact of creative workers on regional unemployment

Over the past several years, we have witnessed the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. In this paper, we seek to understand how regional occupational structures are associated with metropolitan areas that have rebounded (or have not felt the recession much at all) and those regions that have been unable to recover their economies. In particular, we analyze the impact of the creative class in comparison with other occupational groups. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment statistics from July 2007 to February 2011, we study the composition of 369 metropolitan areas to observe whether there are patterns in unemployment rates and distribution of occupational groups. We study these cities through five distinct periods during this time period: Stable, Crisis, Unemployment Expansion, Peak and Post-Peak. We find that having a strong concentration of the creative class going into the crisis is associated with lower unemployment rates throughout the studied period. Like the creative class, highly skilled human capital is associated with lower unemployment throughout the studied period but proves to be a less influential variable in our regression results.

Sickness absence due to mental health disorders--a societal perspective

Sickness absence (SA) is affected by societal factors. Increasing socioeconomic stress may cause or worsen mental health disorders, which are among the most frequent causes of SA. Employees may also be more cautious about being absent, for example in times of poor economy. To monitor the incidence of SA due to mental health disorders in the Netherlands from 2001 to 2010. Descriptive observational study of long-term (> 3 weeks) SA available from an occupational health service register. The incidence of both total and mental health long-term SA in each year was calculated and evaluated alongside the changes in SA compensation policies, gross national product and national unemployment statistics. The incidence of mental health SA was stratified based on the economic (agricultural, industrial, private, public) sector. The incidence of both total and mental health SA decreased gradually since 2004, and fell during the economic recession in 2009 in all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural and industrial sectors. The incidence of mental health SA increased with preliminary economic recovery in 2010 in the private and public sectors, but not in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Long-term SA due to mental health disorders has decreased since 2004, but further studies across countries are required to confirm and explain this trend.

Race’s Real Threat: State of the Black Union, 2012

With the 2008 election of U.S. President Barack Obama, the first man of color to become an elected leader of a nation that is majority white, African Americans have found themselves at a crossroads. On one hand, there is Obama’s unbelievable rise to become the “leader of the free world,” something that always seemed an idealistic possibility rather than an odds-on probability. On the other hand, now almost four years after Obama assumed the presidency, the socioeconomic status of themost vulnerable black Americans is plummeting, with eye-popping unemployment statistics. On April 7th, 2010, the Seattle Medium reported: