State-specific Factors Research Articles

Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market

This study investigates the relationship between natural gas price and production and analyzes whether the recent shale gas boom has changed the nexus between the two. We set up a framework to test the directions of causal links between natural gas price and two measures of natural gas production: (1) gross natural gas production (aggregate of conventional natural gas and shale gas productions) and (2) conventional natural gas production only. Based on monthly data of 16 states in the U.S. between January 2007 and December 2016, we find robust evidence of a reliable relationship between natural gas price and gross production, but no reliable cointegration between gas price and conventional natural gas production. Our results are robust when we account for potential structural breaks and cross-section dependence in the data. Our evidence denotes that the recent shale gas boom has changed the relationship between natural gas price and production in the U.S. Moreover, our study shows that the structure break in the U.S market highly correlates to shale gas and also provides some evidence on that while cross-state factors result in long-term mean reversion, state-specific factors lead to a permanent shock. • We investigate the long-run relationship between natural gas price and production considering the structural breaks. • We ask whether the recent shale gas boom changed the nexus between the two. • Based on monthly data of 16 states in the U.S. between January 2007 and December 2016. • Shale gas boom changed the long-run relationship between the natural gas price and production in the U.S.

Association of Medicaid Healthy Behavior Incentive Programs With Smoking Cessation, Weight Loss, and Annual Preventive Health Visits

Several states have implemented Healthy Behavior Incentive Programs (HBIPs) in Medicaid through Section 1115 demonstration waivers. These programs use financial incentives to encourage positive behavior changes, such as greater use of preventive services, smoking cessation, and weight loss. To test for an association between the introduction of HBIPs and the rates of smoking cessation, weight loss, and annual preventive health visits in states that have adopted behavior-specific programs compared with states that have not. A cohort study using a difference-in-differences analysis of the 2011-2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey Interview Results data, adjusting for demographic conditions, state unemployment rates, state Medicaid expansion, national secular trends, and time invariant state-specific factors, was conducted. Two sets of participants were considered: adults aged 18 to 64 years who had a reported annual household income of less than $25 000 (n = 442 089) or adults aged 18 to 64 years who had completed high school education or less (n = 676 883). Changes in health behavior outcomes in 4 states (Florida, Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan) that implemented behavior-specific HBIPs targeting smoking, obesity, and annual health checkups through a Section 1115 waiver, against changes in control states, including Washington, DC, that did not introduce an HBIP (n = 44). Rate of smoking, obesity, and attendance at annual preventive health visits. Of Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Service respondents used for the less than $25 000 annual household income cohort (n = 442 089), the mean (SD) age was 43.1 (0.8) years, and the mean (SD) percentage of women was 58.4% (2.5%). For the cohort of high school education or less (n = 676 883) population, the mean (SD) age was 41.6 (1.1) years, and the mean (SD) percentage of women was 46.6% (0.9%). During a 2-year period after implementation, there were no improvements in smoking and obesity in individuals with a household income of less than $25 000 (2.49 percentage points, 95% CI, 1.75-3.23 percentage points; P < .001 and -1.94 percentage points, 95% CI, -4.42 to 0.55 percentage points; P = .12, respectively) as well as in the population holding a high school education or less (1.74 percentage points, 95% CI, 0.64-2.85 percentage points; P = .003 and -0.73 percentage points, 95% CI, -1.84 to 0.38 percentage points; P = .19). An association was noted between an increase in preventive health visit rates among states adopting behavior-specific HBIPs relative to control states in the less than $25 000 household income population (3.89 percentage points, 95% CI, 2.64-5.14 percentage points; P < .001). However, these associations were substantively small and not robust across the high school education or less population (1.8 percentage points, 95% CI, -0.12 to 3.71 percentage points; P = .07). Early postimplementation assessment may indicate that HBIPs were not associated with substantive improvements in incentivized healthy behaviors among populations likely to be Medicaid beneficiaries. The value, format, and timing of the incentive, complexity in delivery, and lack of awareness of incentives among target beneficiaries and clinicians may limit the usefulness of programs even over a longer follow-up period.

Impact of state policies on generating capacity for production of electricity and combined heat and power from forest biomass in the United States

This research enhances the understanding of the complex relationship between state policies and decisions to invest into bioenergy generation capacity. Specifically, the paper evaluates the impact of state policies on large-scale generating capacity (over 1 Megawatt) for production of electricity and combined heat and power from forest biomass in the United States. Controlling for state-specific factors, the article investigates which policy types (regulation, information provision, production incentives, tax incentives, or project financing) and policy foci (e.g. policies specifically targeting forest bioenergy vs. renewable energy production in general) were associated with higher bioenergy capacities in the years 2004–2013. The analysis is based on a unique dataset of 450 state bioenergy policies in effect in the years 2003–2012. The introduction of tax incentives (especially tax credits), as well as policy packages with ten or more policies is associated with higher installed bioenergy capacity. In contrast, no statistically significant relationship was found between bioenergy capacity and introduction of production incentives, project financing, and regulations. Apart from policy impacts, the strongest predictor of installed capacity is the sufficient availability of forest biomass.

Modeling House Price Synchronization Across the U.S. States and Their Time-Varying Macroeconomic Linkages

This paper analyzes the time-varying impact of macroeconomic forces on the synchronization in housing movements across all the U.S. states. Using a Bayesian modeling approach, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional, and state-specific factors. We then analyze the time-varying impact of macroeconomic forces on these national and regional factors. Evidence suggests that in several Western and Eastern states the house price variations are dominated by the national factor, whereas the regional factor dominates the Southern and Midwestern markets. These factors are found to have a time-varying relationship with most macroeconomic indicators with particularly pronounced time-variation caused by national house prices, inflation rate, and consumer sentiments.

Role and Importance of Information and Communication Technology in E-Governance of India

The ‘E’ in E-Governance stands for ‘Electronic’. Thus, E-Governance is basically associated with carrying out the functions and achieving the results of governance through the utilization of what has today come to be known as Information and Communication Technology (ICT). The new technologies offer vast opportunities for progress in all walks of life. Since Internet Technology has evolved rapidly in the last few years, there is a need to think strategically about where we want to be in the future. The technology as well as E-Governance initiatives have come a long way since then. E-Governance refers to the delivery of national or local government information and services via the Internet Technology or other digital means to citizens or businesses or other governmental agencies. The development of E-Governance in Indian can parallel with the development of ICT. This paper has endeavored to investigate the impediments associated with the development and diffusion of E-Governance with a concentration on non-technical, technical and state-specific factors. The focus of this paper is to provide a comprehensive and holistic insight about E-Governance and its various interactions, using advanced nations and other Indian states experiences in the same domain to establish benchmarks. We also discussed in present paper different challenges faced by E-Governance in India.

National Food Security Act: A Relook

It has been four years since the National Food Security Act, 2013 (NFSA) was passed, ample time for us to assess its impact on the food insecurity in India. The Act was initiated as an ambitious attempt to provide food security through a life-cycle approach, but over the years it has remained restricted to merely converting four schemes into legal entitlements. It has lost sight of its ultimate goal of providing „food security‟ and remains largely over occupied by food distribution. Additionally, core aspects of food production and management have been placed under schedule III, to be progressively realized, in other words "not imperative".The present paper shall critically analyze the concept of food security against the national Act. An attempt shall be made at highlighting the lacunae within the provisions of the Act, implementation gaps and operational inadequacies. Moreover, the interaction between the national law and the individual state rules and the impact of diverse state-specific factors on rule-making and ground-level implementation shall also be considered. The paper introduces the concept of food security and gives an overview of the NFSA. It also critically analyzes the provisions of the Act and highlights the gaps in food security therein. The paper concludes with recommendations as to how food security can be implemented in an effective way.

Is inequality deadly and for whom? A Bayesian Model Averaging analysis

The persistent correlations between income and mortality, and inequality and mortality in the US are well established. It has been demonstrated with various empirical models at different levels of analysis. However, there is no consensus on the relevant confounding factors or even the functional specification of the income–inequality–mortality relationship across the literature. We interpret this as significant model uncertainty when it comes to the correct specification of the implied econometric model and provide a systematic approach to address it. Using BMA, we conduct a large-scale analysis considering millions of models to determine a model-averaged inequality effect explaining cross-sectional variations in mortality at the county level. The results also suggest a best set of confounding factors and emphasize the importance of controlling for unobserved State-specific factors. Furthermore, we uncover a robust nonlinear income–inequality–mortality relationship that challenges typical assumptions in the literature.

Diffusion of food policy in the U.S.: The case of organic certification

Organic food certification policy and programs are an interesting case to explore in terms of policy diffusion, as there has been interesting dynamics between the federal and state levels, and great diversity in the pace of diffusion across states. At the same time, this policy diffusion underlies a very dynamic marketplace that has relied on government-based certification policies and programs to stabilize and support growth of the organic food sector. The focus of this paper is a cross-section time series analysis of organic policy adoptions over the past several decades to explore the types of factors that have influenced diffusion across time and space. Although federal policy activity has been a key driver of this dynamic, there are several other state-specific factors that also help to explain the differential diffusion of policies in this realm.

Medical Marijuana and Crime

State medical marijuana programs have proliferated in the United States in recent years. Marijuana sales are now estimated in billions of dollars per year with over two million patients, yet it remains unlawful under Federal law, and there is limited and conflicting evidence about potential effects on society. We present new evidence about potential effects on crime by estimating an economic crime model following the general approach developed by Becker. Data from 11 states in the Western United States are used to estimate the model and test hypotheses about potential effects on rates of violent and property crime. Fixed effects methods are applied to control for state-specific factors, with adjustments for first-order autocorrelation and cross-section heteroskedasticity. There is no evidence of negative spillover effects from medical marijuana laws (MMLs) on violent or property crime. Instead, we find significant drops in rates of violent crime associated with state MMLs.

Economic Impact of Wind Energy Development in Illinois

AbstractA number of factors have contributed to the rapid growth of wind power capacity in Illinois from 50 MW in 2003 to 3,334.91 MW in 2012, including: federal and state policies, energy security, energy costs, environmental benefits, economic development opportunities, and state-specific factors. One key policy driver in Illinois was the passage of the Illinois Power Agency Act in 2007, which included a renewable portfolio standard of 25 % by 2025, 75 % of the renewable energy resources employed to meet the renewable portfolio standard were designated to wind energy. This study analyzes the economic impacts from the 23 wind projects in Illinois that exceed 50 MW of capacity. These wind projects account for 3,334.91 MW or 99 % of the state’s wind energy generating capacity. Using the JEDI input-output model, the 23 largest wind farms in Illinois created approximately 19,047 full-time equivalent jobs during construction periods with a total payroll of over $1.1 billion. In addition, approximately 814 permanent jobs in rural Illinois areas with a total annual payroll of nearly $48 million are supported. Furthermore, wind farms generated roughly $28.5 million in annual property taxes for local economies as well as $13 million annually in extra income for Illinois landowners who lease their land to wind farm developers. The lifetime total economic benefit of the 23 wind farm projects is estimated at $5.98 billion.

Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Deficit, and Stability in Government Borrowing in India: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Despite the initiatives of the Finance Commission of India, fiscal performance has been deteriorating and increasingly diverging across Indian states. Given that the state governments are endowed with expenditure autonomy, this paper investigates whether the composition of expenditure of the subnational governments has an impact on the degree of indebtedness. A panel analysis for the 17 non-special category states over 1980–2013 indicates that apart from the budget structure, the state-specific factors affecting fiscal performance plays an important role in government borrowing. Curiously enough, government borrowing is more responsive to revenue expenditure than capital outlay and has more growth-augmenting effect through revenue expenditure.

Towards a Comparative Subnational Perspective on India

The article surveys the comparative subnational literature on India and suggests some promising paths forward. One, careful selection of sub-state regions can improve the legitimacy of inter-state comparisons and increase the validity of causal claims regarding state-specific governance and political economy. Two, there is greater scope for intra-state comparisons that control for state-specific factors and thereby identify more local, context-specific factors that drive political and other outcomes. Three, the roles and limitations of both causal and non-causal research designs need to be better understood in the subnational context. Four, for serious comparison, it is imperative to explore only a few carefully selected primary units of analysis. While this highlights the importance of the traditional comparative case study approach, the implied qualitative/quantitative dichotomy is false: methods based on inferential statistics can and should be usefully nested in a causal comparative case study framework. Five, greater emphasis on process tracing can improve insights from subnational comparisons.

Economic and Political Interactions in Explaining the Performance of Public Sector Enterprises in India: The Disinvestment Experience

India had adopted disinvestment, as part of broader reforms, in 1991 to improve performance of public sector enterprises (PSEs) owned by the Central government of India. The current study captures the effect of disinvestment policy on the performance of PSEs with special emphasis on the local political and economic environments in which these enterprises operate. Using firm efficiency to capture performance of all PSEs owned by the central government between 1991-92-2010-11, the study employs panel data fixed effects and two stage least square estimation. The results suggest that performance of PSEs is driven by a harmonious union of internal (firm specific) and external factors. Among external factors, disinvestment, as a policy intervention, has a limited impact on performance where as state specific political and economic factors affect firm performance strongly. Finally, the effect of disinvestment on firm performance is conditioned by the political factors in the state where the PSE is located.

The effect of medical cannabis laws on juvenile cannabis use

BackgroundA number of states in the United States legally allow the use of cannabis as a medical therapy to treat an illness or to alleviate symptoms. Concern persists as to whether these types of laws are increasing juvenile recreational cannabis use. It is also plausible that medical cannabis laws engender an escalation of illicit non-cannabis drug use among juveniles because cannabis is frequently considered to be a gateway drug. MethodsThis study uses longitudinal data drawn from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for the 50 U.S. states and a cross-sectional pooled-time series research design to investigate the effect of medical cannabis laws on juvenile cannabis use and on juvenile non-cannabis illicit drug use. Our study period encompasses five measurement periods calibrated in two-year intervals (2002–2003 to 2010–2011). This research design is advantageous in that it affords us the ability not only to assess the effect of the implementation of medical cannabis laws on juvenile drug use, but also to consider other state-specific factors that may explain variation in drug use that cannot be accounted for using a single time series. ResultsFindings show that medical cannabis laws amplify recreational juvenile cannabis use. Other salient predictors of juvenile cannabis use at the state-level of analysis include perceived availability of cannabis, percent of juveniles skipping school, severity of perceived punishment for cannabis possession, alcohol consumption, percent of respondents with a father residing in household, and percent of families in the state receiving public assistance. There is little empirical evidence to support the view that medical cannabis laws affect juveniles’ use of illicit non-cannabis drugs. ConclusionBased on our findings, it seems reasonable to speculate that medical cannabis laws amplify juveniles’ use of cannabis by allaying the social stigma associated with recreational cannabis use and by placating the fear that cannabis use could potentially result in a negative health outcome.

Divorce and the Birth Control Pill in the US, 1950–85

ABSTRACTThis paper explores the relationship between the advent of the birth control pill and divorce rates. Women using the pill can decide when and whether to have children and whether to maintain their attachment to the labor force. This ability may increase women's autonomy, making divorce more feasible. The pill's effects are identified through a quasi-experiment exploiting differences in the language of the Comstock anti-obscenity statutes approved in the late 1800s and early 1900s in the United States. Empirical evidence from state-level data on US divorce rates 1950 to 1985 shows that sales bans of oral contraceptives have a negative impact on divorce. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and controls for observed (such as women's labor force participation) and unobserved state-specific factors, and time-varying factors at the state level. Results suggest that the impact of women's control of hormonal contraception on their autonomy is important in divorce decisions.

Farm wages and public works

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on farm sector wage rate. This identification strategy rests on the assumption that all districts across India would have had similar wage trends in the absence of the program. The author argues that this assumption may not be true due to non-random allocation of districts to the program’s three phases across states and different economic growth paths of the states post the implementation of NREGS.Design/methodology/approach– To control for overall macroeconomic trends, the author allows for state-level time fixed effects to capture the differences in growth trajectories across districts due to changing economic landscape in the parent-state over time. The author also estimates the expected farm sector wage growth due to the increased public work employment provision using a theoretical model.Findings– The results, contrary to the existing studies, do not find support for a significantly positive impact of NREGS treatment on private cultivation wage rate. The theoretical model also shows that an increase in public employment work days explains very little of the total growth in cultivation wage post 2004.Originality/value– This paper looks specifically at farm sector wage growth and the possible impact of NREGS on it, accounting for state specific factors in shaping farm wages. Theoretical estimates are presented to overcome econometric limitations.

Revisiting Inequality as a Determinant of Mortality: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

The persistent correlations between income and mortality, and inequality and mortality in the US is well established. It has been demonstrated with various empirical models at different levels of analysis. However, there is no consensus on the relevant confounding factors or even the functional specification of the income-inequality-health relationship across the literature. We interpret this as significant model uncertainty when it comes to the correct specification of the implied econometric model and provide a systematic approach to address it. Using BMA, we conduct a meta-analysis to determine the best model for explaining cross-sectional variations in mortality at the county level. The results provide a best set of confounding factors and emphasize the importance of controlling for unobserved State-specific factors. Furthermore, we uncover a robust nonlinear income-inequality-mortality relationship that challenges typical assumptions in the literature.

FDI (foreign direct investment) in wind energy sector in India: Testing the effectiveness of state policies using panel data

This paper examines the role of state level institutional differences in attracting FDI (foreign direct investment) in wind energy in India. The role of institutional differences is measured by means of constructing a policy index using five key policies in wind energy: feed-in-tariff, open access transmission, third party sale, banking, and wheeling charges. Panel data techniques are then employed to investigate the impact of the policy differences on FDI inflow in wind energy for eight Indian states that have significant resource potential over the seven year period (2004–05 to 2010–11) after controlling for several state-specific factors. The results indicate that state-specific policy index for wind energy is significant in attracting FDI in a state irrespective of whether control variables are included or not.

Higher Education Expenditures and State Balanced Budget Requirements: Is There a Relationship?

While recent research has shown that restrictive state fiscal policies, such as tax and expenditure limitations (TELs), matter for state spending to public higher education, no study has examined the impacts that other restrictive state fiscal policies might have on expenditures to this same sector. In this analysis we examine the relationship between state expenditures to public higher education and the stringency of balanced-budget requirements (BBRs). Using a Hausman-Taylor estimator which allows for estimation of parameter coefficients on time-invariant variables, our results show no systematic relationship between BBR stringency and expenditures to state-supported colleges and universities. We conclude that expenditures to this sector are influenced by a number of state-specific factors, including the state’s economic standing, the demand for enrollments, certain public services, budgetary processes, and TELs. We also suggest that by understanding the economic, political, and institutional contexts surrounding state expenditures to higher education, institutional policy makers may be better positioned to respond to changes in public policy, especially when it takes the form of state fiscal policy.

Abstract B17: Health disparities in brain cancer incidence

Abstract Introduction: Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) is a lethal and highly aggressive cancer where risk factors, other than radiation exposure, are still largely unknown. It has been reported that US black patients have lower brain cancer rates than whites, and this has been ascribed to differences in socio-economic status. No study has analyzed possible risk factors that could explain the observed differences in rates with race. Methods: All cases of pathologically confirmed GBM diagnosed between 1973 and 2010 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data base, and age-adjusted incidence rates x 100,000 persons were calculated according to race (blacks, whites, others), and age groups (0-19, 20-49, 50-85+ years). Survival was calculated using Cox proportional hazard models according to race. The NHANES data base was analyzed to assess time since last visit to a dentist (surveyed in 1999 through 2004), performance and frequency of a routine check-up in previous 3 years (surveyed in 1999 through 2002). Results: There were 25,101 GBM patients in the data set, 360 of which were age 0-19 years, 4,234 age 20-49 years, 20,507 age 50-85+ years. GBM incidence rate was 0.1 x 100,000 persons in the younger age group, with no differences between black and white patients. Among patients age 20-49 years the incidence rate was 1.1 x 100,000 in whites and 0.7 x 100,000 in blacks, in patients age 50-85+ years the incidence rate was 9.5 x 100,000 and 4.4 x 100,000. The ratio of the incidence in white patients/black patients was 1, 1.6 and 2.2 respectively in the three age groups, without differences across geographic areas where the diagnosis was performed. Survival was similar in the two race groups: 3 year survival was 6.5% in whites, 9% in blacks; 5year survival was 3.8% and 4.7% respectively. Cancer treatment modalities did not significantly differ between the two races. From the NHANES data base (26,958 subjects, blacks = 6,719), 65.6 % of whites had a dentist visit within the previous year versus 54.3% of blacks (p=0.001). White subjects were significantly more likely to undergo routine check up once or more a year in comparison to black subjects (81.9% vs. 68.3%; p = 0.001). Conclusions: GBM rates continue to be lower in black than white patients. The difference is largest in the older age group, suggesting a relation to the genetic background and subtype of GBM that occurs in patients older than 50 years and/or to environmental exposure. There is no geographic difference in cancer rates arguing against state specific environmental risk factors. Given the overlapping survival observed in black and white patients, it is unlikely that access to care plays a role in the differences in incidence rates. Racial differences in access to dental care and diagnostic radiation exposure should be explored in ad-hoc epidemiologic studies. Citation Format: Emanuela Taioli, Wenqi Gan, Gregory J. Riggins. Health disparities in brain cancer incidence. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Sixth AACR Conference: The Science of Cancer Health Disparities; Dec 6–9, 2013; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2014;23(11 Suppl):Abstract nr B17. doi:10.1158/1538-7755.DISP13-B17