State-level Unemployment Rates Research Articles

Local labor markets and job match quality: Teachers

This paper examines how short-term variation in potential teachers’ outside options affects who chooses to teach in public schools. I use variation in state level unemployment rates as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in outside options available to first-year teachers among teachers surveyed in the NCES School and Staffing Survey. I find that those who become teachers when the local labor market is weak are both more likely to have come from highly selective colleges and more likely to express dissatisfaction with their jobs. Other observable demographic, educational, and certification characteristics of newly hired teachers are not affected. Teachers who enter during weaker labor markets are also no less likely to remain in teaching in the short run. Economic downturns provide a potential opportunity for schools to attract and retain academically talented workers, but this may come at a cost to those workers in the form of reduced job satisfaction.

Unemployment insurance program accessibility and suicide rates in the United States

Unemployment is a risk factor for suicide. Unemployment insurance is the primary policy tool in the United States for alleviating the burden of unemployment on individuals. Our objective was to estimate the effect of state unemployment insurance accessibility on suicide rates, and effect modification by sociodemographic factors and unemployment rate. We used quarterly data from all 50 U.S. states and Washington, DC from 2000 to 2015, for a total of 3264 state-quarter units of analysis. The exposure was the quarterly unemployment insurance recipiency rate, i.e. the percentage of unemployed persons who received unemployment insurance. The outcome was the state-quarterly suicide rate per 100,000 population. Linear regression models included state, year, and calendar quarter fixed effects, state time trends, and state-level economic covariates to account for state-specific time-varying confounding. We assessed effect modification by the state-level unemployment rate, educational attainment, age, gender, and race. Based on fully adjusted models, potential protective effects of higher unemployment insurance recipiency rates appear to be small and restricted to demographic groups at higher risk of suicide including men, non-Hispanic White Americans, and those 45–64 years of age. These groups also generally have higher UI recipiency rates, therefore differences in subgroup estimates may reflect variations in eligibility policies and accessibility of UI programs.

Coronavirus Effects on the U.S. Unemployment: Evidence from Google Trends

This paper shows that daily Google trends can be used as an alternative to conventional U.S. data (with alternative frequencies) on unemployment, interest rates, inflation and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This information is used to investigate the effects of COVID-19 and the corresponding monetary policy on the U.S. unemployment, both nationally and across U.S. states, by using a structural vector autoregression model. Historical decomposition analyses show that the U.S. unemployment is mostly explained by COVID-19, whereas the contribution of monetary policy is almost none. An investigation based on the U.S. states further suggests that COVID-19 and the corresponding monetary policy conducted based on nationwide economic developments have resulted in unequal changes in state-level unemployment rates, suggesting evidence for distributive effects of national monetary policy.

Effects of increased minimum wages by unemployment rate on suicide in the USA

BackgroundSocial welfare policies such as the minimum wage can affect population health, though the impact may differ by the level of unemployment experienced by society at a given time.MethodsWe ran...

The effect of unemployment on noncognitive skills

ABSTRACT Unemployment results in lower levels of cognitive skills and has long-term effects on health and economic well-being. In this paper, I show that unemployment also has negative effects on noncognitive skills, at least in the short term. Using a sample of Germans born between 1945 and 1995, I account for potential endogeneity by using state-level unemployment rates as instruments and controlling for past levels of noncognitive skills. The effects of not working are strong, reducing conscientiousness by 0.15 of a standard deviation for women and by 0.25 for men.

Economic conditions during pregnancy and preterm birth: A maternal fixed-effects analysis.

Making causal inference regarding impacts of macrolevel economic conditions during pregnancy on pregnancy outcomes is hampered by the presence of unmeasured variables that may influence women's probability of giving birth under certain economic conditions (ie, exposure) as well as her pregnancy outcomes. Maternal fixed-effects (FE) analyses, in which the association between exposure and outcomes is estimated within mothers who had discordant outcomes, can control for such unmeasured variables when they are invariant across pregnancies. We utilised a maternally linked data set of all singleton births in Michigan from 1990 to 2012 (n=2657272 for full sample; n=269943 for FE analytic sample) to examine the relationship between state-level unemployment rates during pregnancy and preterm birth (PTB, <37weeks' gestation). Measured maternal characteristics that change across pregnancies, for example, age, marital status, education, parity, and infant sex, were included as covariates in the model. Using an FE approach, we found that each one percentage point increase in state unemployment in the first trimester of pregnancy was associated with a modest 3% increase in odds of PTB. Our results were consistent with previously published results in a national sample and held across random- versus fixed-effect models, analytic samples, and outcome measures. Our findings provide further evidence that economic downturn during early pregnancy may be associated with modest increases in PTB.

Local Labor Markets and Job Match Quality: Teachers

This paper examines how the quality of a potential teacher’s outside option affects who chooses to teach. I use variation in state level unemployment rates as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in the outside option available to first-year teachers in the NCES-SASS. I find that higher quality workers–as measured by college selectivity–become teachers when the local labor market is weak. I also find that individuals who become teachers during times of higher local unemployment are more likely to express dissatisfaction with their jobs. Other observable demographic, educational, and certification characteristics of newly hired teachers are not affected. Teachers who enter during weaker labor markets are also no less likely to remain in teaching. Economic downturns provide a potential opportunity for schools to attract and retain higher quality workers, but job satisfaction may suffer.

Varying weekly work hours and earnings instability in the Great Recession

Unstable work schedules are increasingly a prominent stratification outcome, particularly for low-wage workers. Nationally representative and longitudinal research on the topic is limited, however. This article examines varying numbers of weekly work hours among hourly workers, their increase during the Great Recession of the late 2000s, and their impact on growing earnings instability. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the cumulative probability of ever reporting varying hours among hourly workers increased from 36 percent between 2004 and 2007 to 46 percent between 2008 and 2012. Changes in state-level economic conditions, particularly state-level unemployment rates and economic growth, largely explain the increase in varying hours, consistent with arguments that employers pass the costs of volatile demand onto workers. Finally, variance function regressions show the growth of varying hours accounts for the significant increase in earnings instability from 2004–7 to 2008–12.

Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates

This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on U.S. state-level unemployment rates. First, using a test of symmetry, I evaluate whether the relationship between oil prices and state unemployment rates is symmetric. I find no evidence against the null of symmetry after accounting for data mining. Second, I use a symmetric structural VAR model to analyze the effect of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks on state unemployment. I find that an adverse supply shock triggers increases in unemployment, whereas a positive aggregate demand shock reduces the unemployment rate across most U.S. states. I also show that oil-specific demand shocks have little effect on state unemployment. Finally, I dig into the historical contribution of the various oil shocks to the changes in state unemployment rates during the shale boom period. I find that aggregate demand shocks contributed the most to the change of unemployment.

Long-term Health Consequences of Adverse Labor Market Conditions at Time of Leaving Education: Evidence from West German Panel Data.

Using longitudinal survey data from the Socio-Economic Panel Study ( N = 3,003 respondents with 22,165 individual-year observations) and exploiting temporal and regional variation in state-level unemployment rates in West Germany, we explore differences in trajectories of individuals' self-rated health over a period of up to 23 years after leaving education under different regional labor market conditions. We find evidence for immediate positive effects of contextual unemployment when leaving education on individuals' health. We find no evidence for generally accelerated or decelerated health deterioration when leaving education in high-unemployment contexts. We find, however, that individual unemployment experience when leaving education is associated with worse health and with more accelerated health deterioration in high-unemployment contexts. The cumulative experience of unemployment after leaving education does not mediate the influence of early labor market experiences for long-term health outcomes. In addition, our analyses indicate no gender differences in these results.

Economic Conditions During Pregnancy and Adverse Birth Outcomes Among Singleton Live Births in the United States, 1990-2013.

We know little about the relationship between the macroeconomy and birth outcomes, in part due to the methodological challenge of distinguishing effects of economic conditions on fetal health from effects of economic conditions on selection into live birth. We examined associations between state-level unemployment rates in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes, using natality data on singleton live births in the United States during 1990-2013. We used fixed-effect logistic regression models and accounted for selection by adjusting for state-level unemployment before conception and maternal characteristics associated with both selection and birth outcomes. We also tested whether associations between macroeconomic conditions and birth outcomes differed during and after (compared with before) the Great Recession (2007-2009). Each 1-percentage-point increase in the first-trimester unemployment rate was associated with a 5% increase in odds of preterm birth, while second-trimester unemployment was associated with a 3% decrease in preterm birth odds. During the Great Recession, however, first-trimester unemployment was associated with a 16% increase in odds of preterm birth. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of the Great Recession on health and add to growing literature suggesting that macro-level social and economic factors contribute to perinatal health.

The effect of macroeconomic conditions on parental time with children: evidence from the American time use survey

This paper investigates the effect of changes in macroeconomic conditions on time allocation to children among mothers and fathers in the US. The study relies on 2003–2013 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data. Accounting for a variety of personal demographic characteristics, as well as state and year fixed effects, we find that an increase in state-level unemployment rates is associated with an increase in enriching child–father time in families with small children (ages 0–4). However, there is heterogeneity in results by race, education and marital status, with results being statistically significant for white, married and college-educated fathers. Additionally, we find some evidence that an increase in unemployment rates is also associated with an increase in primary childcare for fathers in families with small children, as well as some declines in total time that fathers spend with older children. In contrast to this result, we find that mothers’ total time with children, as well as primary childcare time, is invariant to macroeconomic fluctuations in the labor market, however, as the unemployment rate goes up we do observe small declines in enriching time that white mothers in families with small children devote to enriching activities.

Perception of and reactions to job insecurity: The buffering effect of secure attachment

ABSTRACTBy bridging attachment theory and cognitive appraisal theory, this study explored the moderating role of secure attachment in one’s perception of (i.e. primary appraisal) and reactions to (i.e. secondary appraisal) job insecurity. Study 1 used individual-level data collected from employees nested in 42 states in the US and state-level unemployment rate derived from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. I found that secure attachment attenuated the negative impact of state-level unemployment rate on individual job insecurity. In Study 2 with data collected at two time points, I found that secure attachment mitigated the negative, lagged outcome of job insecurity on job satisfaction (but not affective commitment). Taken together, I found that secure attachment enabled individuals to positively appraise state-level unemployment rate and constructively cope with job insecurity. Results of both studies converge to support the proposed buffering role of secure attachment in one’s perception of and reactions to job insecurity.

On the relative importance of demand and supply shocks: a panel VAR study for US states

ABSTRACTThis article is a panel VAR study of demand and supply shocks in the USA using state-level data where structural shocks are decomposed into state idiosyncratic and common components. Decomposition suggests that in all instances, idiosyncratic state shocks rather than common shocks have larger impact and explain most variation in both the state-level unemployment rate and real gross state product. Further, demand shocks are the primary driving force in unemployment rate fluctuations, while both demand and supply are important in output movements to varying degree of impact and importance depending on the use of quarterly or annual data.

Health Effects of Short-Term Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Conditions: The Case of Hypertension for Older Americans.

We investigate the health effects of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations as described by changes in unemployment rate, house, and stock market price indexes. The 'Great Recession' provides the opportunity to conduct this analysis as it involved contemporaneous shocks to the labor, housing, and stock markets. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study over the period 2004-2010, we relate changes in hypertension status to changes in state-level unemployment rate and house prices and to changes in stock market prices. We consider hypertension, a disease related to stress and of high prevalence among older adults, that has received little attention in the literature linking macroeconomic conditions to individual health. Our analysis exploits self-reports of hypertension diagnosis as well as directly measured blood pressure readings. Using both measures, we find that the likelihood of developing hypertension is negatively related to changes in house prices. Also, decreasing house prices lower the probability of stopping hypertension medication treatment for individuals previously diagnosed with the condition. We do not observe significant associations between hypertension and either changes in unemployment rate or stock market prices. We document heterogeneity in the estimated health effects of the recession by gender, education, asset ownership, and work status. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Teenagers’ risky health behaviors and time use during the great recession

This paper uses individual-level data from both the 2003–2011 American Time Use Survey and Youth Risk Behavior Survey along with state-level unemployment rates to examine the effects of a weakening economy during the Great Recession on U.S. teenagers’ activities. Black male teenagers had less sex and spent more time with their parents. Hispanic male teenagers spent less time playing sports and more time watching time TV, and were more likely to be obese. Female teenagers, on the other hand, spent less time working, but made greater investments in their education. However, there were signs that female teenagers were stressed by the weak economic conditions, because they slept less and were more likely to smoke daily. Black females also consumed more alcohol.

Teenagers' Risky Health Behaviors and Time Use During the Great Recession

This paper uses individual-level data from both the 2003-2011 American Time Use Survey and Youth Risk Behavior Survey and state-level unemployment rates to examine the effects of a weakening economy during the Great Recession on U.S. teenagers’ activities. I present results by gender and by race/ethnicity within gender groups. Over the period, I find changes in sexual activity for black males associated with changes in time spent with parents. In addition, Hispanic males were more likely to be obese when the economy weakened, which corresponded to a decrease in time spent playing sports and an increase in time watching TV. Female teenagers, on the other hand, made greater educational investments while spending less time working. However, there were signs that female teenagers were stressed by the weak economic conditions, because they slept less and were more likely to smoke regularly. In addition, black females consumed more alcohol.

What effects do macroeconomic conditions have on the time couples with children spend together?

Using data from the 2003–2010 American Time Use Survey combined with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on state-level unemployment rates, we examine how couple time together is affected by macroeconomic conditions. We find a U-shaped relationship between the unemployment rate and the time that couples who have children spend together, with the lowest amount of time together occurring when unemployment rates are around 9 %. We explore how these patterns are related to the timing of work. Our evidence suggests mothers’ work hours are shifted from standard daytime hours to weekend hours, consistent with difficulty in aligning work schedules at moderately high unemployment rates.

Resistant to the recession: low-income adults' maintenance of cooking and away-from-home eating behaviors during times of economic turbulence.

We examined the effects of state-level unemployment rates during the recession of 2008 on patterns of home food preparation and away-from-home (AFH) eating among low-income and minority populations. We analyzed pooled cross-sectional data on 118 635 adults aged 18 years or older who took part in the American Time Use Study. Multinomial logistic regression models stratified by gender were used to evaluate the associations between state-level unemployment, poverty, race/ethnicity, and time spent cooking, and log binomial regression was used to assess respondents' AFH consumption patterns. High state-level unemployment was associated with only trivial increases in respondents' cooking patterns and virtually no change in their AFH eating patterns. Low-income and racial/ethnic minority groups were not disproportionately affected by the recession. Even during a major economic downturn, US adults are resistant to food-related behavior change. More work is needed to understand whether this reluctance to change is attributable to time limits, lack of knowledge or skill related to food preparation, or lack of access to fresh produce and raw ingredients.

The Effects of the Great Recession on Teenagers' Risky Health Behaviors and Time Use

This paper uses individual-level data from both the 2003-2011 American Time Use Survey and Youth Risk Behavior Survey and state-level unemployment rates to examine the effects of the Great Recession on teenagers' activities. I present results by gender and gender by race/ethnicity. Over the period, I find changes in sexual activity for males associated with changes in time spent with parents; but results vary significantly by race. In addition, Hispanic males gained weight during the recession, due perhaps to a decrease in time spent playing sports. Hispanic females, on the other hand, made greater educational investments while spending less time working. All females significantly decreased TV viewing during the Great Recession. However, there were signs that female teenagers were stressed as they slept less and were more likely to smoke regularly.