Standardized Mortality Research Articles

Incidence rate and risk factors for suicide in patients with breast cancer in the USA: A surveillance, epidemiology, and end results analysis (SEER)

PurposeTo investigate suicide mortality and the related factors among female breast cancer patients in the United States. MethodsThe SEER database was used to identify 716,422 patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2010 and 2018 to calculate a standardized mortality rate (SMR). An analysis of risk factors for suicide death was conducted using the univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk model. An estimation of suicide probability was performed through a nomogram model. ResultsCompared with the expected suicide cases (n = 155) in the general population of the United States at the corresponding period (a suicide death rate of 5.71 per 100,000 person-years), the suicide rate among 716,422 breast cancer patients was followed during 2010–2018 and showed a relatively higher rate of 9.02 per 100,000 person-years. The SMR was 1.58 (95%CI: 1.39–1.79). White and other races were nine and seven times more likely to complete suicide than Black race, respectively (aHR = 9.013, 95%CI: 3.335–24.36, P < 0.001; aHR = 7.129, 95%CI: 2.317–21.931, P = 0.001); unmarried or single patients were at higher risk than married patients (aHR = 1.693, 95%CI: 1.206–2.377, P = 0.002). Patients receiving radiotherapy (aHR = 0.731, 95%CI: 0.545–0.980, P = 0.036) were less likely to complete suicide than those who did not. ConclusionFemale breast cancer patients in the United States have a higher suicide rate than the general public, and the risk factors consist of non-black ethnicity, being single or unmarried, and not being treated with radiotherapy. As a result of this study, clinicians may be able to identify female breast cancer patients who are at high risk of suicide, thus providing appropriate psychological support at the early stage.

Mortality trends in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in Europe between 2013 and 2018.

Previous research has suggested that the incidence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is increasing in the UK and elsewhere. The aim of this study is to provide contemporary estimates of IPF mortality rates across 24 European Union (EU) countries from 2013 to 2018, using death certificate data from the European Statistics Institution (EUROSTAT) database. We extracted country data for IPF (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision: code J84.1) mortality from the EUROSTAT dataset. We calculated country-, age- and sex-specific death registration rates between 2013 and 2018. We used direct standardisation to compare rates between countries. We calculated annual trends in mortality rate ratios using a segmented regression model. The overall standardised mortality rate in 24 EU countries during this period was 3.90 (95% CI 3.80-3.90) per 100 000 person-years, with the rate rising from 3.70 in 2013 to 4.00 in 2018 (average annual percent change 1.74%, 95% CI 0.91-2.59%). We observed substantial inter-country differences, with the highest rates detected in Ireland, the UK and Finland, the lowest rate in Bulgaria, and middle rates in Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Slovenia. The IPF mortality rate is increasing across Europe. There are currently more than 17 000 deaths recorded from IPF each year in Europe but the marked geographical differences we observed suggest that this figure may underestimate the true rate considerably.

Trend Analysis of Suicide Mortality and Years of Life Lost from 2016 to 2021 in Southern Iran.

Suicide as the commonest psychiatric emergency imposes a heavy burden on communities. We aimed to evaluate the years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death from suicide in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran. Data regarding suicidal deaths were extracted from the Forensic Medicine Organization. The YLL of each year were calculated among gender and age groups. The YLL calculation was performed using the 2015 WHO excel calendars template. The Join Point Regression method was used to examine the trend of the crude mortality rate, the standardized mortality rate, and the YLL rate. Overall, 572 people died by suicide between 2016 and 2021 (63.5% in males and 36. 5% in females). The main method of death in most cases was hanging (52.8%). The total YLL due to premature death in the 6 year- period was 9248 (4.2 per 1000 persons) in males, 5602 (2.6 per 1000 persons) in females. Hanging (7909) compromised the largest YLL category between different methods of suicide. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the 6-year trend of YLL rate due to premature mortality was increasing in males: the annual percent change (APC) was 4.8% (95% CI 1.0 to 8.7, P=0.024) and stable trend for females. The YLL was higher in men than in women. Effective training interventions should be designed and implemented to reduce the incidence of suicide.

Analyzing the trend of mortality due to traffic and nontraffic accidents: a study in the north of Iran

Background: Examining the raw and standardized mortality rates is the primary strategy for improving life expectancy and human health in society through identifying risk factors and dealing with the factors that cause them. Objectives: This study examined the trend of mortalities due to traffic and nontraffic accidents. Methods: This cross-sectional study examines the registered mortalities during the years 2016–2022 in the form of a census in the health department’s death registration and classification system. Mortality was analyzed as raw and standardized mortality in each 100 000 population. Results: Out of 18 265 deaths during 2016–2022, 1305 (7.15%) were related to accidents and incidents. The age-standardized total mortality rate in the first year was 32.9, and in the final year of the study, it was 33.3 per 100 000 people; although there are fluctuations, this trend is upward (P.trend=0.021). Also, the age-standardized traffic death rate in the first year is 19, and in the final year is 12 per 100 000 people; this decreasing trend was not statistically significant (P.trend=0.061). The incidence of age-standardized intentional nontraffic deaths was 1.7 in the first year of the study interval and 9.8 in the last year in 100 000 people, which showed an upward trend (P.trend&lt;0.001). Conclusion: In light of the generally increasing trend of accidents, especially nontraffic accidents, universal and well-rounded measures are necessary for safety matters and reducing mortality.

Health-related quality of life in different stages of breast cancer in Serbia.

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignant tumor worldwide, and Serbia ranks first in Europe in standardized breast cancer mortality rate. The aim of this research is to estimate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and work productivity among patients in different stages of breast cancer in Serbia. A total of 175 breast cancer patients attending the breast cancer outpatient clinic at the Oncology Institute of Vojvodina between March 2022 and February 2023 were included in the study. Patients were divided into three mutually exclusive groups: (1) First year after primary breast cancer (Group P), (2) Second and following years after primary breast cancer or recurrence (Group S) and (3) Metastatic disease (Group M). The EQ-5D-3L self-classifier was used to estimate the HRQoL, using the EQ-5D-3L index value and visual analog scale (VAS) score. Мean EQ-5D-3L index value was 0.777 for Group P, and 0.768 for Group S. Patients with metastatic disease reported the lowest EQ-5D index value of 0.646 (p < 0.05). Pain/discomfort, as well as anxiety/depression, were the main drivers of the reduction in HRQoL. Patients in Group M also reported the lowest VAS score of 65.4. Furthermore, the highest percentage of women who sought leave or cited breast cancer as the reason for their early retirement were patients with metastatic disease. HRQoL was most impaired in Group M, and patients with metastatic disease were more likely to take sick leave or retire early due to breast cancer. Delaying or preventing metastatic recurrence could significantly benefit patients' productivity and HRQoL.

#1441 COVID-19 vaccination and risk of infection and subsequent death in patients with kidney disease

Abstract Background and Aims The effect of vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 on risk of infection and subsequent adverse outcomes in patients with kidney dysfunction beyond end-stage kidney disease remains uncertain. Based on nationwide data from multiple health care registers, the study aims to evaluate vaccination effect on rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent risk of associated mortality in patients with kidney disease beyond end-stage kidney disease. Method A population-based retrospective cohort study on all Danish residents ≥18 years with an eGFR ≤90 ml/min/1.73 m2 identified between February 1st 2021 and June 27th 2022 corresponding to predominance of Alpha-, Delta-, and Omicron-variant. Outcomes compared based on vaccination state (unvaccinated, vaccinated, and booster vaccinated) across predefined eGFR categories (eGFR 60-90 mL/min/1.73 m2; eGFR 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m2, eGFR 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m2; eGFR &amp;lt;30 mL/min/1.73 m2). Risk of infection reported as age- and gender-standardized rate ratios of positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR and subsequent risk of death reported as age- and gender standardized 30-day mortality risk. Standardized risks computed based on hazards obtained in multiple cause-specific Cox regression models. Results A total of 982,047 adults with eGFR ≤90 ml/min/1.73 m2 identified. Gender distribution was 43.9% male, median age was 71 [IQR 61–78] years, median eGFR 75 [IQR 63-84], and 13.1% diabetes. Population rates of vaccination were 3.5%, 80.1%, and 95.4% for Alpha-, Delta-, and Omicron-variant, with 66.2% booster vaccinated at Omicron-variant baseline (Pfizer BionTech 88.3%, Moderna 9.4%, other vaccinations 2.3%). In total 359,428 SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified (Alpha: n = 7,861, Delta: n = 27,868, Omicron: n = 323,699), corresponding to a crude rate of positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test of 629.0 per 100,000 person-weeks overall. Vaccination and booster vaccination were associated with progressively lower rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Age- and gender-standardized rate ratios are shown in Fig. 1. Overall, mean 30-day risks of death were 7.1‰ [95% CI 6.7-7.6], 3.8‰ [95% CI 3.5-4.0], and 1.4‰ [95% CI 1.3-1.4] in unvaccinated, vaccinated, and booster vaccinated persons, respectively. Vaccination and booster vaccination were associated with benefit on 30-day mortality across all strata of eGFR despite progressive increase in risk of death observed with declining kidney function. Age- and gender standardized 30-day mortality rates following a positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2 across granular eGFR are shown in Fig. 2. Conclusion Based on comprehensive nationwide data covering Alpha-, Delta-, and Omicron-variant predominance in Denmark, vaccination and booster vaccination against COVID-19 were associated with lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and benefit on subsequent risk of 30-day mortality across all strata of eGFR.

An analysis of disease burden of occupational lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019

Objective: To analyze the trend of disease burden, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) , of occupational lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: In June 2022, the data of occupational lung cancer was obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD) . Excel summarized the data, and the mortality rate, DALYs and age-normalized rate were analyzed. Applying Joinpoint Regression Program software annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change Rate (AAPC) . Results: Age-standardized mortality rates ranged from 2.41 in 1990 to 3.14 per 100 000 in 2019, with gender differences and a positive correlation with age. DALYs increased from 580, 000 person-years in 1990 to 1 509 900 person-years in 2019. The rate of standardized DALYs increased from 63.03 per 100 000 in 1990 to 71.65 per 100 000 in 2019. According to the annual percentage change (APC) analysis by Joinpoint Regression Program software, the age-normalized mortality and DALY rates decreased from 2011 to 2016, and the increasing trend from 2016 to 2019 was significantly lower than that before 2011. And the increase at this stage was not statistically significant. The APCC values of mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, DALYs rate and changed DALYs rate were 3.28, 0.92, 2.64 and 0.44, respectively, and the trend differences were statistically significant. Conclusion: The disease burden of occupational lung cancer is increasing from 1990 to 2019. Lung cancer screening should be carried out among high-risk populations to achieve early diagnosis and treatment.

The Burden Cancer-Related Deaths Attributable to High Body Mass Index in a Gulf Cooperation Council: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BackgroundBMI has been reported to be a major risk factor for the increased burden of several diseases. This study explores the burden of cancer linked to high body mass index (BMI) in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and assesses the correlation with Socio-demographic Index (SDI).MethodUsing Global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 data, the authors quantified cancer burden through mortality, DALYs, age standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) across sexes, countries, cancer types, and years. Spearman’s correlation tested ASMR against SDI. The authors estimated 95% uncertainty limits (UIs) for population attribution fraction (PAFs).ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, all six GCC countries showed increased number of the overall cancer-related deaths (398.73% in Bahrain to 1404.25% in United Arab Emirates), and DALYs (347.38% in Kuwait, to 1479.35% in United Arab Emirates) reflecting significant increasing in deaths, and burden cancer attributed to high BMI. In 2019, across GCC countries, pancreatic, uterine, and kidney cancer accounted for 87.91% of the total attributable deaths associated with high BMI in females, whereas in male, colon and rectum cancer alone accounted for 26% of all attributable deaths associated with high BMI.ConclusionThe study highlights the significant impact of high BMI on cancer burden in GCC countries. Moreover, the study identifies specific cancers, such as pancreatic, uterine, and kidney cancer in females, and colon and rectum cancer in males, as major contributors to attributable deaths, urging targeted prevention strategies at reducing weight and encouraging physical activity could greatly lessen the impact of diseases in the GCC countries.

Cumulative effect of unemployment on suicide mortality in South Korean workers (2018-2019).

While unemployment is known to increase the risk of suicide, its cumulative effect remains underexplored. This study investigates how unemployment affects suicide mortality and whether the effect varies based on the number of unemployment spells using two years of nationwide data. Using the data from the National Statistical Office and Employment Insurance Database for 2018 and 2019, we identified an average of 2365 cases of suicide over two years among 7.76 million workers aged 25-64 years who had been employed within one year before their suicide. The number of unemployment spells was counted using the employment history of the past five years. We calculated crude suicide mortality rates per 100 000 population, age- and sex- standardized mortality rates (SMRs), and proportionate mortality rates (PMRs) for suicide. Over the two years, the crude suicide rate was 30.0 per 100 000 among the general population and 30.5 among workers. Workers with no unemployment spells in the past five years had a significantly lower SMR (0.44; 0.42-0.46), while those with four or more unemployment spells had a significantly higher SMR (3.13; 2.92-3.35) than the general population. These findings were consistent across all sex and age groups. Additionally, workers with four or more unemployment spells had a significantly higher PMR than the general population. The impact of unemployment on suicide mortality intensifies as the number of unemployment spells increases. These results underscore the necessity for additional social and psychological support along with economic assistance for individuals facing recurrent unemployment.

The state of cancer care in Russia: liver cancer - (From 22). Age-related features of the observed and relative one-year and five-year survival of patients. (clinical and population-based study). Part 2.

Survival rate calculations for liver cancer patients at the federal level in the Russian Federation are only conducted in the North-Western Federal District and a few other individual administrative territories. In the first part of our study, we presented a detailed analysis of the prevalence of liver cancer, noting that the levels of standardized incidence and mortality rates in Russia and the North-Western Federal District are virtually identical, allowing us to consider the results of our study as nationally representative. The conducted research confirmed the seriousness of the issue of liver cancer among the population. However, certain advancements in patient treatment were recorded, with a significant increase in survival rates, primarily for one-year survival. For example, in the North-Western Federal District, one-year survival increased from 13.6% in 2000 to 23.1% in 2022, representing a 69.8% increase. At the same time, five-year survival rates remained largely unchanged. Increases in survival rates were observed in most age groups. A significant deficiency in the initial patient record-keeping was identified - insufficiently accurate determination of the stage of liver cancer. One-year survival rates for male and female liver cancer patients (22.7% and 22.1%) were nearly equal, as were the survival rates for liver cancer patients residing in urban and rural areas. Therefore, further improvement in the outcomes of treatment for this complex patient group can only be achieved through the implementation of regional and federal screening and epidemiological surveillance programs among populations at high and extremely high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Mortality in Bladder Cancer Patients: A SEER-Based Competing Risk Analysis.

This study was designed to evaluate risk of mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in patients with bladder cancer (BC). Data on patients diagnosed with BC by pathology between 2000 and 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on reference data from the general population, the standardized mortality rate (SMR) is calculated. Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard curves were used for assessment of the risk of COPD mortality in BC patients. Multivariable competing risk models were conducted. The proportional hazards assumption was tested using Schoenfeld residuals, which were scaled and plotted over time for each risk factor. A total of 237,563 BC patients were identified for further analysis from the SEER database, 5,198 of these patients experienced COPD mortality; the overall SMR for COPD mortality in BC patients was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.54-1.63). Age, race, year of diagnosis, histologic type, summary stage, surgery, marital status, college education level, and median household income independently predicted COPD mortality in BC patients. In comparison to the general population, the risk of COPD mortality is significantly higher in patients with BC. Pre-identification of high-risk groups and respiratory care provisions are important measures to effectively improve survival in this group of patients.

Lithium levels in drinking water predicted the ratio of attempted to completed suicides in regions with high incidence of affective disorders: Insights from ecological study

IntroductionLithium has demonstrated significant antisuicidal effects: it significantly reduces the high excess overall mortality of patients with affective disorders. MethodsPublic drinking water samples were collected in 53 Lithuanian municipalities during a two-month period. Linear models used lithium level in public drinking water as predictor and ratio of suicide attempts to suicide mortality as outcomes across the municipalities. ResultsLithium in drinking water predicted the ratio of attempted to completed suicides (A/S) nonlinearly, described by a U-shaped curve. The curves for visualization of the association of incidence of affective disorders and suicide standard mortality rate with lithium level displayed significant suicide curve decrements and invers direction in affective disorders curve. Multivariate regression model for ratio A/S in high lithium exposure group (> 7 µg/L, N = 26) suggests that the lithium level can explain 54.3 % of variance of ratio A/S in municipalities with exposure of lithium above median and with high incidence of affective disorders. ConclusionsThe findings provide confirmatory evidence that in municipalities with high incidence of affective disorders higher lithium levels in the public drinking water are associated with higher ratio A/S due to an unchanging number of suicide attempts and due to decreasing suicide lethal outcomes. LimitationsNevertheless, the methods employed detected several factors with well-established associations with suicide. Finally, cohort, prospective or intervention studies are needed to verify the causal inverse relationship of these variables and to speculate the mechanism for this relationship.

Quality Indicators in Adult Critical Care Medicine.

Quality indicators are increasingly used in the intensive care unit (ICU) to compare and improve the quality of delivered healthcare. Numerous indicators have been developed and are related to multiple domains, most importantly patient safety, care timeliness and effectiveness, staff well-being, and patient/family-centered outcomes and satisfaction. In this review, we describe pertinent ICU quality indicators that are related to organizational structure (such as the availability of an intensivist 24/7 and the nurse-to-patient ratio), processes of care (such as ventilator care bundle), and outcomes (such as ICU-acquired infections and standardized mortality rate). We also present an example of a quality improvement project in an ICU indicating the steps taken to attain the desired changes in quality measures.

Sex Differences in Mortality Risk after the First Hospitalisation with Lower Extremity Peripheral Arterial Disease

Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a severe condition that increases the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, major adverse limb events, and all cause mortality. This study aimed to investigate the mortality risk among females and males hospitalised for the first time with lower extremity PAD. Three cohorts of patients who were admitted for the first time with lower extremity PAD in 2007 - 2010, 2011 - 2014, and 2015 - 2018 were constructed. For the 2007 - 2010 and 2011 - 2014 cohorts, the 28 day, one year, and five year mortality rates were calculated, assessing survival time from date of hospital admission until date of death, end of study period, or censoring. For the 2015 - 2018 cohort, only 28 day and one year mortality were investigated due to lack of follow up data. Mortality rates of these cohorts were compared with the general population using standardised mortality rates (SMRs), and the risk of death between sexes was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Cox models were adjusted for age, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus to account for potential confounding factors. In total, 7 950, 9 670, and 13 522 patients were included in the 2007 - 2010, 2011 - 2014, and 2015 - 2018 cohorts, respectively. Over 60% of individuals in each cohort were males. Mortality rates at 28 day and one year remained stable across all cohorts, while the five year mortality rate increased for both males and females in the 2011 - 2014 cohort. The SMRs both of females and males with PAD were significantly higher than in the general population. Multivariable regression analyses found no significant differences in mortality risk between sexes at 28 day and one year. However, the five year mortality risk was lower in females, with a hazard ratio of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83 - 0.97) in the 2007 - 2010 cohort and 0.88 (95% CI 0.82 - 0.94) in the 2011 - 2014 cohort. The five year mortality risk has increased, and females face a lower mortality risk than males. Lower extremity PAD still carries unfavourable long term consequences compared with the general population.

Increased mortality in acromegaly is due to vascular and respiratory disease and is normalised by control of GH levels-A retrospective analysis from the UK Acromegaly Register 1970-2016.

Epidemiological studies involving patients with acromegaly have yielded conflicting results regarding cancer incidence and causes of mortality in relation to control of growth hormone (GH) excess. The objective of this retrospective cohort study is to clarify these questions and identify goals for treatment and monitoring patients. We studied 1845 subjects from the UK Acromegaly Register (1970-2016), obtaining cancer standardised incidence rates (SIR) and all causes standardised mortality rates (SMR) from UK Office for National Statistics, to determine the relationship between causes of mortality-age at diagnosis, duration of disease, post-treatment and mean GH levels. We found an increased incidence of all cancers (SIR, 1.38; 95% CI: 1.06-1.33, p < .001), but no increase in incidence of female breast, thyroid, colon cancer or any measure of cancer mortality. All-cause mortality rates were increased (SMR, 1.35; 95% CI: 1.24-1.46, p < .001), as were those due to vascular and respiratory diseases. All-cause, all cancer and cardiovascular deaths were highest in the first 5 years following diagnosis. We found a positive association between post-treatment and mean treatment GH levels and all-cause mortality (p < .001 and p < .001), which normalised with posttreatment GH levels of <1.0 µg/L or meantreatment GH levels of <2.5 µg/L. Acromegaly is associated with increased incidence of all cancers but not thyroid or colon cancer and no increase in cancer mortality. Excess mortality is due to vascular and respiratory disease. The risk is highest in the first 5 years following diagnosis and is mitigated by normalising GH levels.

Trends in parkinson’s disease mortality in China from 2004 to 2021: a joinpoint analysis

BackgroundThis study aimed to analyze the trends of Parkinson’s disease (PD) mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2004 to 2021, provide evidence for the formulation of PD prevention and control strategies to improve the quality of life among PD residents.MethodsDemographic and sociological data such as gender, urban or rural residency and age were obtained from the National Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset from 2004 to 2021. We then analyzed the trends of PD mortality rates by Joinpoint regression.ResultsThe PD mortality and standardized mortality rates in China showed an overall increasing trend during 2004–2021 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 7.14%, AAPCASMR=3.21%, P < 0.001). The mortality and standardized mortality rate in male (AAPC = 7.65%, AAPCASMR=3.18%, P < 0.001) were higher than that of female (AAPC = 7.03%, AAPCASMR=3.09%, P < 0.001). The PD standardized mortality rates of urban (AAPC = 5.13%, AAPCASMR=1.76%, P < 0.001) and rural (AAPC = 8.40%, AAPCASMR=4.29%, P < 0.001) residents both increased gradually. In the age analysis, the mortality rate increased with age. And the mortality rates of those aged > 85 years was the highest. Considering gender, female aged > 85 years had the fastest mortality trend (annual percentage change [APC] = 5.69%, P < 0.001). Considering urban/rural, rural aged 80–84 years had the fastest mortality trend (APC = 6.68%, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe mortality rate of PD among Chinese residents increased from 2004 to 2021. Male sex, urban residence and age > 85 years were risk factors for PD-related death and should be the primary focus for PD prevention.

Insights from Explainable Artificial Intelligence of Pollution and Socioeconomic Influences for Respiratory Cancer Mortality in Italy.

Respiratory malignancies, encompassing cancers affecting the lungs, the trachea, and the bronchi, pose a significant and dynamic public health challenge. Given that air pollution stands as a significant contributor to the onset of these ailments, discerning the most detrimental agents becomes imperative for crafting policies aimed at mitigating exposure. This study advocates for the utilization of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methodologies, leveraging remote sensing data, to ascertain the primary influencers on the prediction of standard mortality rates (SMRs) attributable to respiratory cancer across Italian provinces, utilizing both environmental and socioeconomic data. By scrutinizing thirteen distinct machine learning algorithms, we endeavor to pinpoint the most accurate model for categorizing Italian provinces as either above or below the national average SMR value for respiratory cancer. Furthermore, employing XAI techniques, we delineate the salient factors crucial in predicting the two classes of SMR. Through our machine learning scrutiny, we illuminate the environmental and socioeconomic factors pertinent to mortality in this disease category, thereby offering a roadmap for prioritizing interventions aimed at mitigating risk factors.

The development and internal validation of a multivariable model predicting 6-month mortality for people with opioid use disorder presenting to community drug services in England: a protocol

BackgroundPeople with opioid use disorder have substantially higher standardised mortality rates compared to the general population; however, lack of clear individual prognostic information presents challenges to prioritise or target interventions within drug treatment services. Previous prognostic models have been developed to estimate the risk of developing opioid use disorder and opioid-related overdose in people routinely prescribed opioids but, to our knowledge, none have been developed to estimate mortality risk in people accessing drug services with opioid use disorder. Initial presentation to drug services is a pragmatic time to evaluate mortality risk given the contemporaneous routine collection of prognostic indicators and as a decision point for appropriate service prioritisation and targeted intervention delivery. This study aims to develop and internally validate a model to estimate 6-month mortality risk for people with opioid use disorder from prognostic indicators recorded at initial assessment in drug services in England.MethodsAn English national dataset containing records from individuals presenting to drug services between 1 April 2013 and 1 April 2023 (n > 800,000) (the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System (NDTMS)) linked to their lifetime hospitalisation and death records (Hospital Episode Statistics-Office of National Statistics (HES-ONS)). Twelve candidate prognostic indicator variables were identified based on literature review of demographic and clinical features associated with increased mortality for people in treatment for opioid use disorder. Variables will be extracted at initial presentation to drug services with mortality measured at 6 months. Two multivariable Cox regression models will be developed one for 6-month all-cause mortality and one for 6-month drug-related mortality using backward elimination with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables. Internal validation will be undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination of both models will be reported using Harrel’s c and d-statistics. Calibration curves and slopes will be presented comparing expected and observed event rates.DiscussionThe models developed and internally validated in this study aim to improve clinical assessment of mortality risk for people with opioid use disorder presenting to drug services in England. External validation in different populations will be required to develop the model into a tool to assist future clinical decision-making.

Quantification of the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin America: an invisible epidemicQuantificação da carga da doença renal crônica na América Latina: uma epidemia invisível

1) Describe the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin American countries between 1990 and 2019; and 2) Estimate the correlation between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the Sociodemographic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Secondary and ecological analysis, based on the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. Standardized mortality rates, years of life lost to due to premature death (YLLs),years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLDs) and DALYs due to chronic kidney disease were reported for 1990, 2005, and 2019. Information was disaggregated by country, sex, age group, and sub-cause. Between 1990 and 2019, the burden of chronic kidney disease increased considerably in Latin American countries, becoming one of the main causes of mortality and DALYs. The standardized rate of DALYs for chronic kidney disease was largely due to the weight of premature deaths rather than disability. In 2019, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala had the highest standardized mortality rates for chronic kidney disease and DALYs, while Uruguay had the lowest. Chronic kidney disease is an invisible epidemic that places an excessive burden in terms of mortality and DALYs on Latin American countries. It is essential to join forces to tackle the disease in the region, and promote local actions that address the particularities of each country.

Epidemic characteristics and trend analysis of major injuries deaths among children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021

Objective: To understand the situation and epidemic characteristics of injury deaths among children aged 5 to 24 years in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021 and the trend of annual changes. Methods: The main injury mortality data of children and adolescents was collected, and the crude and standardized mortality rates of road traffic accidents, drowning, suicide, and accidental falls among children and adolescents over a decade and the annual average percentage of change (AAPC) were calculated. The main injury mortality characteristics and trends of children and adolescents of different age groups and genders were analyzed. Results: The total number of injury deaths among 5 to 24 adolescents in Jiangsu Province was 16 052, with a standardized mortality rate of 9.58/100 000. There was no significant trend in the overall standardized mortality rate of injuries (AAPC=-3.450%, P=0.055). The standardized mortality rate of road traffic injuries among children and adolescents showed a decreasing trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=-9.406%, P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=9.000%, P=0.001). The overall injury mortality rate showed an upward trend with age. Suicide rates in males and females were on the rise and both have statistical significance (AAPC=9.420% and AAPC=9.607%, both P<0.05). The standardized mortality rates of female traffic accidents, drowning, and male traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and were statistically significant (AAPC for female traffic accidents=-7.364%, AAPC for female drowning=-5.352%, and AAPC for male traffic accidents=-10.242%, all P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate of urban and rural traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and was statistically significant(AAPC=-7.899% and AAPC=-9.421%, both P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend and statistical significance (AAPC=11.009% and AAPC=7.528%, both P<0.05). Conclusions: The overall injury situation of children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province improved in the past decade from 2012 to 2021, but the suicide mortality rate was on the rise. It is necessary to focus on the mental health issues of this age group and to strengthen the prevention and control of suicide among children and adolescents, in Jiangsu.