539 Background. The issue regarding the eventual correlation of DFS with OS has not actually been explored in trials addressing the role of AIs. For this purpose, we meta-analyzed all RCTs in which patients were randomized to receive standard tamoxifen or AIs, whatever applied strategies. Methods. A literature-based meta-analysis was accomplished, and event-based relative risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were derived. A fixed- (FEM) and a random-effect (REM) model and heterogeneity test were applied as well. Absolute benefits (AB) and the Number of patients Needed to Treat (NNT) were calculated. A linear regression model considering both each single outcome pair (5-years DFS and OS) has been adopted to explore for correlation, estimated according to Pearson, R2 (parametric) and Spearman (non-parametric) coefficients. Results. Ten RCTs were gathered (27,653 patients); two RCTs did not report the OS result, so they were not evaluable. DFS was significantly improved with AIs, with a AB of 2.3–3.5%, which translate into 29–43 NNT. OS was significantly improved in both overall and early switch strategy, with an AB of 0.8–1.61%, which translate into 120 and 62 NNT, respectively. A strong correlation was found between DFS and OS in the overall (r=0.78, R2=0.60, p=0.001; Rho=0.77, p=0.001) and in the early switch strategy (r=0.83, R2=0.68, p=0.003; Rho=0.84, p=0.002). Although a stronger correlation was found in the upfront strategy, the low number of RCTs did not allow to reaching statistical significance. Conclusions. The strong correlation between DFS and OS in AIs adjuvant endocrine treatment for early BC underlines the choice of DFS as a surrogate end-point for OS. The predictive value of earlier DFS (3-years) estimation for overall survival deserves a further analysis. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.
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