Rainfall has been recorded in the United Kingdom in a systematic fashion for over Ioo years. Information about the incidence of heavy rain is of particular interest to the hydrologist for use in flood prediction, but the data need to be classified. Bilham devised one method of classifying and predicting the frequency of heavy rain, but another more satisfactory approach is through the use of a Gumbel-type extreme value analysis, as this allows magnitude frequency relations to be determined at a point. The problems of transforming point values into areal assessments are described and a method for calculating the probable maximum precipitation is put forward. The low intensities of British maxima are significant in relation to the development and maintenance of the typical British upland scene. THE BRITISH weather and climate are supposedly free from the extremes experienced in other parts of the world. Yet unexpected snowfall throws the transport system into confusion, hurricane force winds cause considerable damage in urban areas and floods occur at a time of the year when a heat wave might be expected. The cost of these and similar events must amount to millions of pounds each year while, in addition, there is sometimes loss of life. Heavy rain is the usual cause of river floods, although rapid snow-melt is an important but rarer factor. Information about the amount and distribution of rainfall in the United Kingdom has been collected systematically for more than 1oo years, and now the network consists of some 6500 standard rain gauges, many read daily by volunteers. By comparison with other countries, this is one of the best national rain-gauge networks,1 in terms of the number of gauges and the lengths of records, although there are reasons to suspect the efficacy of the standard gauge.2 Unfortunately, the network of rain recorders is much more limited, both in number of gauges and length of records. Hence knowledge of the relationships between the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is somewhat limited for periods other than the rainfall day. The occurrence of exceptionally heavy daily falls of rain for the period 1863 to I960 has been described by A. Bleasdale.3 From that study and the map (Fig. I) it is evident that a rainfall of Ioo mm4 has been surpassed on some occasion in almost every part of the country. As might be expected, the heaviest falls have occurred in those parts of the north and west where the largest annual totals are recorded. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that there have been events of a similar magnitude in some of the regions of low rainfall, particularly near to the east coast and across the neck of the South-West Peninsula. This part of the West Country seems especially susceptible to heavy rain, possibly because convectional storms are reinforced by the effects of orography. Within the last 50 years it has experienced at least five storms which produced daily falls in excess of 50o mm, the most recent occurrence being on Io July 1968. On that day, amounts of up to I70 mm were registered to the north of the Mendip Hills and there were widespread falls of over Ioo mm. The outstanding example, however, was the storm of July 1955 when 280 mm was recorded at Martinstown, Dorset-the largest amount ever caught in one day at any United Kingdom station. Of course, limitations of the rain-gauge network, particularly in the mountainous areas, may have led to many other excessive falls not being recorded. There is also the fact that the probability of rain falling at 0900 hours (the time of observation) increases towards the north 49 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.45 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 05:46:16 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
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