Stage Shift Research Articles

Abstract A028: The Early Detection Initiative trial version 2: A platform trial to test novel approaches to pancreatic cancer screening in patients with new onset hyperglycemia and diabetes

Abstract The Early Detection Initiative (EDI) is an innovative study designed to build a platform that will evaluate novel approaches to early detection of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in patients over age 50 with new onset hyperglycemia and diabetes (NOD). This randomized controlled trial (RCT) of algorithm-based screening for PDAC uses a modified Zelen’s design with post-randomization consent. Eligible subjects are identified through electronic medical record (EMR) surveillance and randomized 1:1 to the Observation or Intervention Arm. The Enriching New-onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (ENDPAC) score, an algorithm that further risk stratifies NOD based on age and changes in weight and glycemic parameters, is calculated in the Intervention Arm. Consenting subjects with ENDPAC >0 have Computerized Tomography (CT) scan imaging for PDAC detection; potential harm, including over-diagnosis, is also estimated. At the time of abstract submission >2000 individuals have been randomized and >50 subjects consented for CT imaging. EDI version 2 adds several innovations in response to challenges encountered and experience gained so far. Most significantly, EDI v2 has a platform design with a common control arm and allows for multiple intervention arms. This opens the door for evaluating future new biomarkers for PDAC early detection in a high–risk NOD population, including new blood-based biomarkers for the early detection of cancer that are now commercially available. EDI v2 focuses primarily on co-efficacy endpoints (PDAC stage shift in ENDPAC >0 group, and in all patients, excluding non-consented patients); effectiveness evaluation becomes a secondary objective. This addresses the challenges of low consent rate (~25%) due to lack of awareness of connection between NOD and PDAC and low acceptance for a novel research screening modality. The analyses of primary endpoints were adjusted to accommodate potential over-diagnosis due to screening and imbalance between ENDPAC >0 and ENDPAC ≤0 groups due to low consent rate and likely imperfect enrichment by ENDPAC, when evaluating all patients. Electronic eligibility checks and consent shorten the recruitment time, a critical factor for stage shift due to rapid progression of PDAC. A pre-randomization screening pilot study is planned to enhance the post-randomization consent rate. Intervention to Control randomization ratio is changed to 2:1, allowing more rapid recruitment and, when factoring the consent rate, doubling the sample size of the observation arm. Through these innovations, EDI v2 maintains the full advantage of Zelen’s design that made the trial feasible in sample size and cost. Simulation studies demonstrate that our approach correctly controls the type-1 error and the trial has adequate statistical power. The EDI trial represents an innovative and contemporary approach to developing and refining an early detection strategy for pancreatic cancer. Citation Format: Ying-Qi Zhao, Suresh T. Chari, Anirban Maitra, Lynn M. Matrisian, Eva E. Shrader, Bechien U. Wu, Avinash Kambadakone, Barbara Kenner, Jo Ann S. Rinaudo, Sudhir Srivastava, Ying Huang, Ziding Feng. The Early Detection Initiative trial version 2: A platform trial to test novel approaches to pancreatic cancer screening in patients with new onset hyperglycemia and diabetes [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Pancreatic Cancer; 2022 Sep 13-16; Boston, MA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(22 Suppl):Abstract nr A028.

Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention of Colorectal Cancer-An English Version.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common malignancy in Korea and has been ranked as the third leading cause of cancer deaths in 2020. Although the incidence and mortality rates of CRC have decreased in recent years in Korea, it is still a significant public health burden. From the early 1990s until the mid-2000s, the 5-year relative survival of patients with CRC in Korea continuously increased. This finding appears to be a consequence of the successful introduction of a government-led screening program; the development of improved surgical techniques, anticancer drugs, and adjuvant treatment; and the advancement of medical resources and infrastructure along with economic growth. However, the improvement in survival has stagnated since the late 2000s. The recent coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak led to a reduction in hospital visits and screenings, which is expected to cause a stage shift to advanced disease stages and a worse prognosis for patients with CRC. Exploring modifiable environmental risk factors and appropriate screening test methods in Korea is necessary to overcome these challenges. Primary prevention through risk factor mediation and secondary prevention using suitable screening programs can help reduce the incidence and mortality rates of CRC.

Single-cell RNA-sequencing of retrieved human oocytes and eggs in clinical practice and for human ovarian cell atlasing.

With the advancement of single-cell separation techniques and high-throughput sequencing platforms, single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) has emerged as a vital technology for understanding tissue and organ systems at cellular resolution. Through transcriptional analysis, it is possible to characterize unique or rare cell types, interpret their interactions, and reveal novel functional states or shifts in developmental stages. As such, this technology is uniquely suited for studying the cells within the human ovary. The ovary is a cellularly heterogeneous organ that houses follicles, the reproductive and endocrine unit that consists of an oocyte surrounded by hormone-producing support cells, as well as many other cell populations constituting stroma, vasculature, lymphatic, and immune components. Here we review studies that have utilized scRNA-seq technology to analyze cells from healthy human ovaries and discuss the single-cell isolation techniques used. We identified two overarching applications for scRNA-seq in the human ovary. The first applies this technology to investigate transcriptional differences in oocytes/eggs from patients undergoing in vitro fertilizationtreatments to ultimately improve clinical outcomes. The second utilizes scRNA-seq for the pursuit of creating a comprehensive single-cell atlas of the human ovary. The knowledge gained from these studies underscores the importance of scRNA-seq technologies in unlocking a new biological understanding of the human ovary.

Increased use of computed tomography in Denmark: stage shift toward early stage lung cancer through incidental findings

Background Computed tomography (CT) examinations are increasingly used worldwide and incidental findings are growing likewise. Lung cancer stage at diagnosis is pivotal to survival. The earliest stage of lung cancer, stage IA is in most cases asymptomatic. Potentially, increased use of clinical CTs could induce a stage shift toward earlier lung cancer diagnosis. Materials and methods Data on the number of CT thorax in Denmark and the stage distribution of Danish lung cancer patients 2013–2020 were acquired from, respectively, the Danish Health Data Authority and the Danish Lung Cancer Registry. Clinical auditing of stage IA lung cancer patients was performed in the period 2019–2021 in a Danish region to assess the reasons for referral. Auditing of stage IV lung cancer patients was done to see whether a CT thorax was performed in a two-year period before diagnosis. Results All regions showed an increase in CTs per 1000 inhabitants. However, the number of CTs performed in 2013 differed by more than 50% among regions, and the increase per year also differed, from an increase of 1.9 to 3.4 more examinations per year. A significant correlation between CTs and fraction of stage IA lung cancers was seen in four out of the five regions. The audit of stage IA lung cancer cases revealed that 86.8% were incidental findings. Audit of stage IV lung cancer found that 4.3% had a nodule/infiltrate on a previous CT within a 2-year period prior to the diagnosis of lung cancer that was the probable origin of stage IV lung cancer. Conclusion The study found that the vast majority of early-stage lung cancers were incidental findings. It highlights that follow-up algorithms of incidental findings should be used in accordance with guidelines and it should be unequivocally how the CT follow-up of pulmonary infiltrates is managed.

Perspective and practice patterns of mediastinal staging among thoracic surgeons.

Accurate mediastinal staging of lung cancer patients is critical for determining appropriate treatment. Mediastinoscopy and endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS)-guided transbronchial needle aspiration are the most commonly utilized techniques. Limited data exist on training and practice trends among thoracic surgeons. We aimed to determine training and practice patterns and find whether there is a paradigm shift in mediastinal staging after the introduction of EBUS into practice among thoracic surgeons in the United States. 28-question survey was constructed querying demographic, training, and practice patterns with mediastinoscopy and EBUS and was sent to practicing thoracic surgeons in the United States. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize quantitative data. Ninety-eight responded with a 93% completion rate. Eighty-seven percent of respondents received training in EBUS and 70% perform EBUS routinely. All respondents believe EBUS should be incorporated into thoracic surgery training curriculums. Majority of those who prefer EBUS feel EBUS is safer than mediastinoscopy, allows access to lymph nodes stations or lesions inaccessible by mediastinoscopy and prefer EBUS to avoid re-do mediastinoscopy and in irradiated mediastinum. Majority of those who prefer mediastinoscopy reported they perform more accurate staging compared to EBUS, that mediastinoscopy is more accurate in diagnosing lymphoma or sarcoidosis and that frozen section can be done at the same interval as resection. Among surgeons who prefer EBUS, 94% biopsy 3 or more lymph node stations, 86% routinely biopsy hilar (N1) nodes while 8% never biopsy N1 nodes. Of surgeons who prefer mediastinoscopy. Ninety-seven percent biopsy 3 or more lymph node stations, only 27% routinely biopsy N1 nodes and 70% never biopsy N1 nodes. EBUS is used frequently by thoracic surgeons in their practice for mediastinal staging. Methods of obtaining proficiency in EBUS widely varied among surgeons. In addition to mediastinoscopy, dedicated EBUS training should be incorporated into thoracic surgery training curriculums.

Stage Shift Improves Lung Cancer Survival: Real-World Evidence

IntroductionLung cancer is the global leading cause of cancer death. Taiwan initiated several health policies including smoking cessation, precision therapy, and low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening in 1997. We aimed to investigate the effect of public policies on lung cancer survival. MethodsWe retrieved the nationwide cancer registry from the Ministry of Health and Welfare to evaluate the smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence and mortality from 1994 to 2020. We also conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical characteristics and survival on 17,298 patients with lung cancer from 2006 to 2019 using the National Taiwan University Hospital database. ResultsTaiwan initiated an anti-smoking campaign in 1997, reimbursed tyrosine kinase inhibitors since 2004, and conducted an LDCT screening trial in 2015. Lung cancer incidence keeps rising but the annual percent change in mortality rate gradually decreased from 0.41% to −2.41%. The National Taiwan University Hospital data revealed that the 5-year survival substantially improved from 22.1% in 2006 to 2011 to 54.9% in 2015 to 2020. Improvement was observed in all stages, especially late stages (stage III: from 17.2% to 35.2%; stage IV: from 7.9% to 16.5%). Furthermore, a remarkable shift in cancer stage was observed (stage 0, I, and IIincreased from 19.3% to 62.8%, and stage III and IV decreased from 70.9% to 33.8%). The prominent improvement in survival was primarily driven by the stage shift from advanced to localized, potentially curable disease. ConclusionsThis real-world evidence suggested an association between improved survival and LDCT screening and the diagnostic shift from late to early-stage of lung cancer, highlighting the importance of early detection for lung cancer control.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Breast Cancer Stage at Diagnosis in a Regional Cancer Center in Poland between 2019 and 2021.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative effect on oncology healthcare services in Poland, with a reduction in the national breast cancer (BC) screening program coverage rates. This article analyzes the impact of the pandemic on BC stage at diagnosis in a regional cancer center in Poland. Records from BC multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings that took place in the years 2019–2021 were gathered. BC clinical staging was compared. Age-related subgroups were additionally analyzed to reflect possible screening program disruptions. The total number of BC cases fell by 8% in 2020 compared with 2019, with a 14% fall in the screening age group. In 2021, a stage shift was observed, with stage II BC becoming most frequently diagnosed (as opposed to stage I BC in 2019 and 2020). A statistically significant increase in the number of stage III BC cases was observed in 2021.

Stage Migration and Lung Cancer Incidence After Initiation of Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening

IntroductionDespite evidence from clinical trials of favorable shifts in cancer stage and improvements in lung cancer-specific mortality, the effectiveness of lung cancer screening (LCS) in clinical practice has not been clearly revealed. MethodsWe performed a multicenter cohort study of patients diagnosed with a primary lung cancer between January 1, 2014, and September 30, 2019, at one of four U.S. health care systems. The primary outcome variables were cancer stage distribution and annual age-adjusted lung cancer incidence. The primary exposure variable was receipt of at least one low-dose computed tomography for LCS before cancer diagnosis. ResultsA total of 3678 individuals were diagnosed with an incident lung cancer during the study period; 404 (11%) of these patients were diagnosed after initiation of LCS. As screening volume increased, the proportion of patients diagnosed with lung cancer after LCS initiation also rose from 0% in the first quartile of 2014 to 20% in the third quartile of 2019. LCS did not result in a significant change in the overall incidence of lung cancer (average annual percentage change [AAPC]: −0.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): −4.7 to 3.2]) between 2014 and 2018. Stage-specific incidence rates increased for stage I cancer (AAPC = 8.0 [95% CI: 0.8–15.7]) and declined for stage IV disease (AAPC = −6.0 [95% CI: −11.2 to −0.5]). ConclusionsImplementation of LCS at four diverse health care systems has resulted in a favorable shift to a higher incidence of stage I cancer with an associated decline in stage IV disease. Overall lung cancer incidence did not increase, suggesting a limited impact of overdiagnosis.

EP03.01-008 Shift in Lung Cancer Stage at Diagnosis during the COVID-19 Pandemic in New York City

New York City was the first place in the US to record a COVID-19 case on March 1, 2020, and soon became the epicenter of the pandemic. Because of the large number of hospitalized patients, Governor Cuomo imposed a halt on all elective care from March 22 to June 8, 2020. Such action resulted in delayed cancer screening rates, care and treatment. However, no study has quantified the effect of the “pause” on cancer stage at diagnosis, one of the best indicators of cancer prognosis. We analyze here data from the Mount Sinai Heath System cancer registry; we chose lung cancer as an example of a condition where early diagnosis can dramatically modify survival.

EP14.05-003 Recent Stage Shifts and Changes in the Treatment of Stage I Small Cell Lung Cancer in the United States

Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) is historically associated with late-stage diagnoses, limited treatment options, and poor prognoses. However, over the last decade, improvements in diagnostic imaging, the advent of lung cancer screening in the U.S., and the increasing use of surgery for stage-I SCLC may have led to a shift towards earlier stages of disease identified together with corresponding increases in the number of SCLC operations performed. The objective of this study was to examine recent trends in the stage of SCLC diagnoses and the percentage and number of operations performed for SCLC in the U.S.

The Rising Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Denmark Over Two Decades: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Shifts in epidemiological stages of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) carry implications toward understanding IBD etiology and managing clinical care. We conducted a temporal analysis of the epidemiology of IBD between 1995 and 2016 in the Danish nationwide cohort. We used the Danish registers to obtain data on demographics and IBD-related outpatient and inpatient contacts between 1995 and 2016. IBD diagnosis was defined as having ≥2 registrations related to Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) within a 2-year period. We estimated overall and annual incidence rates and prevalence of CD and UC standardized with respect to age and sex. A total of 47,830 individuals met the criteria for IBD diagnosis, of which 33% were diagnosed with CD and 67% with UC. Between 1995 and 2016, the incidence rate (95% confidence interval) per 100,000 person-years rose from 9.1 (8.3-10.0) to 17.8 (16.8-19.0) for CD, and from 21.0 (19.8-22.3) to 28.4 (27.0-29.8) for UC. The highest increase in CD and UC incidence rates occurred in children and young adults, respectively. The prevalence of IBD doubled from 1995 to 2016; the greatest increase (2.5-fold) was in UC prevalence among individuals aged >40 years. During this period, the median age of the IBD population increased by 6 to 7 years. In Denmark, the incidence and prevalence of IBD have increased during the last 2 decades. The IBD population is shifting toward an older age. These findings have implications towards understanding environmental shifts as well as preparing health care systems for an aging IBD population.

Polysomnographic features of idiopathic restless legs syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 13 sleep parameters and 23 leg movement parameters.

This study aims to explore the polysomnographically measured sleep and leg movement differences between idiopathic restless legs syndrome (RLS) patients and healthy controls. An electronic literature search was conducted in EMBASE, MEDLINE, all EBM databases, CINAHL, and PsycINFO. Only observational case-control studies were included in the meta-analysis. The differences in 13 sleep parameters and 23 leg movement parameters between RLS patients and healthy controls were explored. Thirty-eight studies were identified for systematic review, 31 of which were used for meta-analysis. Meta-analyses revealed significant reductions in total sleep time, sleep efficiency, stage N2 and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep percentages, and increases in wake time after sleep onset, stage shifts per hour, stage N1 percentage, REM latency, arousal index, and apnea-hypopnea index. Some leg movement parameters, such as periodic limb movement during sleep (PLMS) index, PLMS sequence duration, number of PLMS sequence, and periodicity index, were higher in RLS patients compared with healthy controls. Further, our meta-analysis revealed a higher PLMS index during non-REM sleep compared with that during REM sleep. RLS patients manifest a lightening of sleep, increased sleep fragmentation, and greater sleep-related breathing disruption and limb movements during sleep relative to healthy normal individuals. The distributions of PLMS during a night's sleep may provide more information to clarify the specific characteristics of leg movements in RLS. PLMS in RLS are concentrated in non-REM sleep. The periodicity index may be a more sensitive and specific marker of RLS than the PLMS index. Zhang H, Zhang Y, Ren R, etal. Polysomnographic features of idiopathic restless legs syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 13 sleep parameters and 23 leg movement parameters. J Clin Sleep Med. 2022;18(11):2561-2575.

Shift in lung cancer stage at diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City.

Shift in lung cancer stage at diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City.

Abstract 23: Will novel systemic treatments alter the benefit of lung cancer screening?: A microsimulation study

Abstract Background: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force has recently updated its 2013 lung cancer screening guidelines with low-dose computed tomography. In the last decade, population level mortality for advanced non-small cell lung cancer fell significantly due to the novel targeted and immunotherapy-based treatments. Moreover, with detection of new molecular targets, these therapies are expected to become the ultimate curative options. However, how these treatments might impact the benefits of lung cancer screening is unknown. Methods: We utilize a computer microsimulation modeling framework to screen the U.S. population aged 50 to 80 who had a 20 pack-year smoking history and currently smoked or had quit within the past 15 years under both standard treatments (chemotherapy and radiotherapy) and novel treatments (immunotherapy and targeted therapy) settings. The corresponding mortality reductions associated with the stage shift via low-dose computed screening are projected for each setting. Results: Over 25 years, risk-targeted screening saves 243 lives per 20,000 under standard therapies (12% mortality reduction) and 99 per 20,000 under fully adopted novel therapies (6% mortality reduction). Under standard treatment, 1.28 cancers are over-diagnosed per life saved; under fully adopted novel therapies, this increases to 3.46. Over 25 years the number needed to screen to avert one death is 82 under standard treatment and 202 under fully adopted novel therapies. Conclusions: Ongoing transition from chemotherapy and radiotherapy to novel immunotherapies and targeted therapies may reduce the expected lives saved by low-dose computed tomography screening. Screening recommendations might need to be reconsidered as novel treatments become widespread. Citation Format: Kemal Caglar Gogebakan, Jane Lange, Christopher Slatore, Ruth Etzioni. Will novel systemic treatments alter the benefit of lung cancer screening?: A microsimulation study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 23.

Abstract 2242: Impact of low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer at a community oncology clinic on stage of lung cancer diagnosis in the catchment area

Abstract Introduction: Arkansas has the second-highest incidence of lung cancer in the U.S., with a largely rural and medically underserved population. Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is a well-established procedure for lung cancer screening in academic medical centers, but few local community oncology centers utilize this technology. Highlands Oncology Group (HOG), located in Northwest Arkansas (NWA), took the initiative to bring LDCT screening to a non-academic medical center and provide routine LDCT screening to a rural population. The objective of this study is to evaluate the benefits of free LDCT screening at a community oncology clinic. Methods: The study compared for-fee and free periods of LDCT screening at HOG and their impact on identifying cancer in NWA. The study population was patients in HOG’s catchment area who fell into the risk categories set by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology to be eligible for screening between March 2013 and February 2020. Results: A total of 5,402 eligible participants enrolled in the study. During ten months of for-fee screening (n=60), 3.3% of patients diagnosed had Stage I lung cancer, and 1.7% were diagnosed with Stages II-IV. During the first ten months of free screening (n=729), 3% of patients were diagnosed with Stage I lung cancer, 1.8% were diagnosed with Stages II-IV, and 1.1% were diagnosed with other cancers. Over the entire program until February 2020 (n=5,402), a total of 76 patients were diagnosed with Stage I lung cancer, 52 were diagnosed with Stage II-IV, and 35 were diagnosed with other cancers. Conclusion: The result of this study suggests that eligible patients are more receptive to free lung cancer screening, even though most insurance coverage does not have a required co-pay for eligible patients. We also observed an increased diagnosis rate for early-stage lung cancers due to increased patient influx with free LDCT screening. The state central registry data showed a decline in distant lung cancer after the free LDCT screening offered in the northwestern counties in the HOG catchment area. At the same time, no such trend is visible for the entire state, suggesting a stage shift in lung cancer due to free LDCT screening. Citation Format: Edgar T. Ellis, Michael A. Bauer, Thaddeus Beck, Daniel S. Bradford, Joanna Thompson, Margarete C. Kulik, Joseph L. Su. Impact of low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer at a community oncology clinic on stage of lung cancer diagnosis in the catchment area [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 2242.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Bladder Cancer Care in the Netherlands.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted regular health care with potential consequences for non-COVID diseases like cancer. To ensure continuity of oncological care, guidelines were temporarily adapted. To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on bladder cancer care in the Netherlands. The number of bladder cancer (BC) diagnoses per month during 2020-2021 was compared to 2018-2019 based on preliminary data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). Additionally, detailed data were retrieved from the NCR for the cohort diagnosed between March 1st-May 31st 2020 (first COVID wave) and 2018-2019 (reference cohort). BC diagnoses, changes in age and stage at diagnosis, and time to first-line treatment were compared between both periods. Changes in treatment were evaluated using logistic regression. During the first COVID wave (week 9-22), the number of BC diagnoses decreased by 14%, corresponding with approximately 300 diagnoses, but increased again in the second half of 2020. The decline was most pronounced from week 13 onwards in patients≥70 years and patients with non-muscle invasive BC. Patients with muscle-invasive disease were less likely to undergo a radical cystectomy (RC) in week 17-22 (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.40-0.97). Shortly after the start of the outbreak, use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy decreased from 34% to 25% but this (non-significant) effect disappeared at the end of April. During the first wave, 5% more RCs were performed compared to previous years. Time from diagnosis to RC became 6 days shorter. Overall, a 7% reduction in RCs was observed in 2020. The number of BC diagnoses decreased steeply by 14% during the first COVID wave but increased again to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2020 (i.e. 600 diagnoses/month). Treatment-related changes remained limited and followed the adapted guidelines. Surgical volume was not compromised during the first wave. Altogether, the impact of the first COVID-19 outbreak on bladder cancer care in the Netherlands appears to be less pronounced than was reported for other solid tumors, both in the Netherlands and abroad. However, its impact on bladder cancer stage shift and long-term outcomes, as well as later pandemic waves remain so far unexamined.

Expected Cost Savings From Low-Dose Computed Tomography Scan Screening for Lung Cancer in Alberta, Canada

IntroductionThe expensive modern therapeutic regimens for advanced lung cancer (LC) stages have been recently approved. We evaluated whether low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) LC screening of high-risk Albertans is cost saving. MethodsWe used a decision analytical modeling technique with a health system perspective and a time horizon of 3 years to compare benefits associated with reduced health service utilization (HSU) from earlier diagnosis to the costs of screening. Using patient-level data, HSU costs by stage of disease were estimated for patients with LC, including inpatient, outpatient, and physician services, and costs for prescription drugs and cancer treatments. ResultsOf 101,000 people aged 55 to 74 years eligible for screening, an estimated 88,476 scans would be performed in Alberta in 3 years. Given LDCT sensitivity and specificity of 90.5% and 93.1%, respectively, we estimated that a stage shift toward earlier diagnosis would be expected whereby 43% more patients would be identified at stage 1 or 2 as compared with without screening. The estimated cost of screening is $35.6 million (M), whereas the stage shift associated with screening would avoid $42M in HSU costs. The net cost avoidance associated with screening is therefore $6.65M. The probability for the screening to be cost saving is estimated at 72%. ConclusionsThis study has revealed that LDCT LC screening is likely to be cost saving in Alberta. Adoption of this program into the provincial health care system is worth considering provided constraints in the system related to surgical capacity and CT wait times could be addressed.

Equity for under-served populations in lung cancer screening and treatment: Does mobile low-dose CT scanning lead to stage shift and diagnosis with potential cures at 4 years of follow-up?

8551 Background: Randomized trials proved that screening high-risk patients with LDCT of chest reduces lung cancer mortality. Under-served patients have missed this benefit in most studies through access issues. We showed that mobile LDCT improves access and now assess if this translates to equity of survival. Methods: We used two coaches with BodyTom © portable 32 slice low-dose CT scanners (Samsung) to screen uninsured and under-served heavy smokers for lung cancer (Oncologist, 2019). All films were reviewed by central panel using LUNG RADS technique. Protocol was approved by Advarra IRB. Medicare pts were excluded as insurance covered them for LDCT (causing negative bias for diagnosis as the elderly are at high risk). Results: We initially screened 1200 uninsured/under-insured subjects, mean age 61 years (range 55-64), with average pack year history of 47.8 (30-150); 61% male; 18% Black, 3% Hispanic/Latino; 78% rural. We found 97 pts with LUNG RADS 4 (high risk) lesions, 30 lung cancers (2.5%), including 18 at stage I-III treated with curative intent (60%); 5 incidental non-lung cancers (renal CA 2, head & neck CA 1, pancreas CA 2); > 50% with intercurrent cardiovascular disease and COPD seen on LDCT. Of eligible first-screen subjects, 51% attended 12 month repeat LDCT and 27% attended third LDCT. One pt (6%) treated with curative intent has relapsed to date (median follow up 2.5 years, with 25% beyond 3 years). An additional 288 screened pts revealed 9 lung cancers (5 stage I-III), confirming shift to early stage disease at diagnosis. Conclusions: Mobile LDCT yields higher screening rate for under-served pts than prior hallmark trials, with shift to early-stage detection of lung cancer, with sustained treatment-induced remissions beyond 4 years. This approach could be applied to improve national lung cancer survival in the under-served.

Smaller species but larger stages: Warming effects on inter- and intraspecific community size structure.

Global warming can alter size distributions of animal communities, but the contribution of size shifts within versus between species to such changes remains unknown. In particular, it is unclear if expected body size shrinkage in response to warming, observed at the interspecific level, can be used to infer similar size shifts within species. In this study, we compare warming effects on interspecific (relative species abundance) versus intraspecific (relative stage abundance) size structure of competing consumers by analyzing stage‐structured bioenergetic food web models consisting of one or two consumer species and two resources, parameterized for pelagic plankton. Varying composition and temperature and body size dependencies in these models, we predicted interspecific versus intraspecific size structure across temperature. We found that warming shifted community size structure toward dominance of smaller species, in line with empirical evidence summarized in our review of 136 literature studies. However, this result emerged only given a size–temperature interaction favoring small over large individuals in warm environments. In contrast, the same mechanism caused an intraspecific shift toward dominance of larger (adult) stages, reconciling disparate observations of size responses within and across zooplankton species in the literature. As the empirical evidence for warming‐driven stage shifts is scarce and equivocal, we call for more experimental studies on intraspecific size changes with warming. Understanding the global warming impacts on animal communities requires that we consider and quantify the relative importance of mechanisms concurrently shaping size distributions within and among species.

An Investigation of Cognitive and Affective Changes During Group Imagery Rescripting for Social Anxiety Disorder

Recurrent, negative self-imagery is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Imagery rescripting (ImRs) is an effective therapeutic technique that aims to target past aversive memories to modify their associated meanings, and update the encapsulated negative schematic beliefs. The current study aimed to extend previous research by investigating the cognitive and affective shifts during each phase of ImRs delivered within a group cognitive behavioral therapy protocol. Participants (N = 32) retrieved an aversive memory associated with social anxiety and were guided through brief cognitive restructuring, prior to completing ImRs. Core beliefs associated with the memory (strength and valence) and fear of negative evaluation were assessed before and after ImRs and affect was assessed following each phase. Strength and affective valence of encapsulated core beliefs about the self, others, the world, and the image itself significantly reduced following ImRs, and core beliefs were updated to become more positive. Participants reported large affective shifts early in the process, with smaller shifts in the later stages. Fear of negative evaluation did not significantly reduce following ImRs. Outcomes provide some support for cognitive and affective changes during group ImRs for SAD and suggest future research directions to investigate longer-term impacts and to better understand the underlying mechanisms of the technique.