Stages Of Fertility Transition Research Articles

Union formation, within-couple dynamics, and child well-being: A global macrolevel perspective.

Studies on global changes in families have greatly increased over the past decade, adopting both a country-specific and, more recently, a cross-national comparative perspective. While most studies are focused on the drivers of global changes in families, little comparative research has explored the implications of family processes for the health and well-being of children. This study aims to fill this gap and launch a new research agenda exploring the intergenerational implications of union-formation and within-couple dynamics for children's health and well-being across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), both globally, regionally, and by the stage of fertility transition. We do so by adopting a macro-level perspective and a multi-axis conceptualization of children's outcomes - health at birth, health in later life, and schooling - and leveraging Demographic and Health Survey and World Bank data across 75 LMICs. Our results show that in societies where partnerships are characterized by more equal status between spouses - i.e., where the age range between spouses and differences in years of schooling between partners are narrower - children fare better on several outcomes. These associations are particularly strong in mid- and high-fertility settings. Despite a series of regularities, our results also highlight a set of findings whereby, at a macro-level, the prevalence of marriage and divorce/separation are not invariably associated with children's outcomes, especially in LMICs where fertility is comparatively lower. We document little cross-regional heterogeneity, primarily highlighting the centrality of demographic factors such as age vis-à-vis, for instance, region-specific characteristics that are more tied to the social fabric of specific societies.

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism—originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe—can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

Factors Influencing Progression to a Larger Family in Mid- and Late-Transitional Fertility Stalls: A Case Study of Bangladesh

Bangladesh has experienced stallsin fertility decline in different stages of fertility transition. This study explored the predictors of progression to a larger family in Bangladesh duringthe mid-transitional fertility stall that occurredin the late 1990s and the late-transitional fertility stall in the early 2010s by analyzing the progression to third and fourth births, and progression to third birth. This study analyzedthe 1999/2000 and 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data using descriptive analysis technique, chi-square test, and random-effects Cox hazard model. Results showedthat women were significantly slower in having a higher-order birth in both stalls if they noticed family planning messages, attained secondary or higher education, were non-Muslim, did not experience child death, and livedoutside of the Chattogram and Sylhet regions. Although progression to a higher-order birth in the late-transitional stall became more homogeneous among different groups, the urban-rural difference in having a higher-order birththat was nonsignificant in the mid-transitional stall became significant in the late-transitionalstall. Besides thesefactors, the effects of religion and region increased substantially in the late-transitionstall. The findings highlight a necessity forthe government’sattention to family planning programsalong with the increasing gaps between urban-rural residences, regions, and religious groups in having higher-order births.

Education elasticities of young women fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT Although the relationship between education and fertility is well established, an understanding of young women’s fertility responses to education over time is needed to enhance a critical appraisal of education elasticities of fertility. This study thus comparatively investigates education effects on fertility in Ethiopia, Rwanda and Zimbabwe. Multivariate fixed effects logistic regression and direct decomposition methods were applied to Demographic and Health Survey data between 1999 and 2011. Results showed that declines in youth fertility in Ethiopia and Rwanda were driven by decrease in fertility rates of those with primary education but in the Zimbabwe youth fertility changes were driven by those with secondary or higher educational attainment. We conclude that education elasticities of fertility are not constant but vary by country and stage of fertility transition. Countries that are more advanced in fertility transition therefore need to place focus on enhancing post-secondary education to sustain fertility transition.

Trends in Age at Marriage and the Onset of Fertility Transition in sub‐Saharan Africa

In this chapter the author adopts a comparative approach to examining longterm trends in female age at marriage and fertility in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on continental countries having at least 1 million inhabitants. The author’s database on nuptiality includes over 360 censuses and national surveys conducted in these 39 countries since the 1960s. The author analyzes the association between changes in age at first union and the onset of fertility transition examining whether there is a typical pattern of association followed by most countries in the region.

A glimpse on women’s fertility

Objective To examine the factors that affect women’s fertility in the fringe of Bilaspur. Participants and methods Information about different levels of socioeconomic development and various stages of fertility transition was collected from married female participants in the 15–49-year age group from 551 families across four villages. This study was based on a microlevel survey, and information was collected through a structured interview schedule. Results Social, biological, economic, spatial, and cultural factors together determine the fertility behavior of certain groups. In the surveyed area, 58.91% of families earn below Rs. 2000 per month and only 0.73% earn Rs. 8000 per month. Conclusion There is a need for reorientating the views of people toward achieving a lower fertility in rural communities through measures such as incentives, education, and extension of family planning programs to the rural areas.

‘Ultramodern Contraception’ Re-Examined

The family planning literature considers behavioural family planning methods ‘ineffective’ because their users are not motivated to control their fertility. While this is true for the initial stages of fertility transition, studies report that urban, educated, and affluent women—propelled by a reaction against the medicalisation of the female body by Western technology—mainly use behavioural family planning methods. This elite group has the skill and knowledge to use such methods effectively. The term ‘ultramodern contraception’ has been coined to describe this phenomenon. This paper critically re-examines the ‘ultramodern contraception’ theory, and argues that it has certain limitations. Analysing three rounds of National Family Health Survey data for India, we argue that reliance on such methods may be a transient phase in the reproductive cycle of women, specifically before the desired gender parity of children is attained. Moreover, it may also be a manifestation of son preference.

Significant Effects of Fatwa-Based Perception on Contraceptive Practice Among Muslim Women in South Jordan Under the Early Stage of Fertility Transition

An interview survey of 450 Muslim women in a rural village of south Jordan under the early stage of fertility transition was conducted to explore major causes of contraceptive use, taking both their sociodemographic attributes and fatwa (Islamic jurisprudence)–based perception into account. Discriminant analysis, which was performed for the subject women divided into 15- to 29-, 30- to 39-, and 40- to 49-year age groups, revealed that “the number of living children” in the former and “to do contraception for good care of children” in the latter played significant roles in discrimination into contraceptive user and nonuser groups for any age groups. To cope with demographically and socioeconmically vulnerable situations, contraceptive prevalence rate should be increased by means of government-led family planning programs in cooperation with the imam (Muslim religious leaders and priests) through fatwa, in which special attention is paid to traditional norms, represented by good childcare.

Contrôle social et transmission intergénérationnelle de l'âge au mariage en Hollande rurale de 1850 à 1940

Résumé Cet article étudie la transmission intergénérationnelle de l’âge au premier mariage de mère en fille en Hollande-du-Nord rurale, entre 1850 et 1940, avant et pendant les premières étapes de transition de la fécondité. À partir d’une base de données détaillée, complétée par la reconstitution des familles des filles émigrées dans les autres provinces, des modèles multiniveaux sont utilisés pour analyser l’effet des caractéristiques familiales des mères sur l’âge au premier mariage des filles. Les résultats montrent une transmission intergénérationnelle de cet âge, mais son effet varie selon la classe sociale et l’appartenance religieuse. On l’observe dans la classe ouvrière et la classe moyenne et supérieure, mais il est quasiment inexistant chez les agriculteurs ; il est très marqué parmi les protestants, mais faible chez les catholiques. La transmission familiale des comportements de fécondité semble plus importante dans les environnements caractérisés par une moindre pression sociale et des décisions plus individualisées.

In Ghana and Kenya, Many Spouses Disagree on Their Need for Contraception

This article compared findings from Ghana and Kenya on couples need for contraception. Data were obtained from the 1988 and 1993 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Ghana and the 1989 and 1993 DHS for Kenya. Unmet need for contraception in Ghana increased from 21% to 29% among married women and from 16% to 24% among married men during 1988-93. In Kenya unmet need decreased from 37% to 32% among married women and from 32% to 24% among married men. The different patterns were attributed to differences in the stage of fertility transition. Ghana has only begun its transition and most couples are just beginning to consider limiting fertility. In Kenya couples are acting to limit the size of families. In Ghana 9% in 1988 and 16% in 1993 of both spouses agreed on unmet need. In Kenya 19% in 1989 and 14% in 1993 agreed on unmet need. Couple agreement on unmet need and 1 spouses report of unmet need amounted to 28% in 1988 and 35% in 1993 in Ghana and 47% in 1989 and 41% in 1993 in Kenya. Among Ghanian women with unmet need 48% in 1988 and 30% in 1993 were married to men who reported no need for family planning (FP). In Kenya the proportions were lower but declined similarly. The proportion of couples using modern contraceptives rose from 14% to 21% in Kenya during 1989-93. The proportion with no demand for FP remained about 30%. In Ghana the biggest change was among couples expressing no need for FP; a decline from 63% to 49% during 1988-93. The proportion of 1 partner expressing unmet need rose from 28% to 35%. Modern method use rose from 4% to 10% in Ghana.

The effect of female family planning workers on the use of modern contraception in Bangladesh

The increase in Bangladesh's contraceptive prevalence rate since 1978 has placed the country in the third stage of fertility transition and is largely due to the efforts of the female, grassroots family planning workers known as family welfare assistants (FWAs). Thus, in 1991, the government decided to recruit an additional 10,000 FWAs. This study provides justification for this decision by evaluating the impact of FWA household visits on the use of modern contraception using data from the 1991 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey of 11,065 women (conducted before the new FWAs were recruited). Two statistical models were constructed: one for acceptors of permanent methods and one for modern reversible acceptors (use of traditional methods was considered nonuse in this study). Logistic regression analysis of the use of modern methods on socioeconomic and demographic factors revealed that the most significant determinant of use in a rural area was a visit by an FWA within the past 3 months. After a FWA visit, odds of use in rural women increased eight times, and odds of use in urban women increased 2.6 times. Participation in a nongovernmental organization program was the most significant determinant of sterilization (and doubled the odds). A visit by a FWA in the past 3 months reduced the odds of sterilization. These findings explain the huge increase in use of modern reversible methods in Bangladesh since 1975. Because a recent study has indicated that the contraceptive failure rate is also high, the role of the FWAs should be expanded to include more follow-up and personalized supervision (with more attention paid to quality of care rather than quantity of acceptors). FWAs should 1) receive regular training, 2) be trained in additional aspects of reproductive health care, 3) be well supervised, and 4) be rewarded for their efforts with housing and transportation. In addition, low prevalence areas should be targeted.

Ahead of target: Achievement of replacement level fertility in Sri Lanka before the year 2000

Sri Lanka is now at the stage of fertility transition where it is approaching below replacement level fertility. The total fertility rate for 1988-93 was 2.3 children per woman. Fertility was low, even though only 66% of currently married women were practicing contraception. The low fertility despite a contraceptive use rate lower than the 71% needed for replacement level fertility may have been achieved in part due to reliance on induced abortion in large numbers. During 1960-90 Sri Lanka has experienced the highest rate of fertility decline compared with other South Asian countries. Demographic transition occurred according to the pattern of initial declines in the death rate since 1947. Births did not begin to decline until 1960 (from 37 per 1000 in 1960 to 20 per 1000 in 1970). Family planning efforts were expanded during 1968-77 and integrated into maternal and child health programs. The 1972-76 Five Year Plan recognized the importance of family planning in the context of low standards of living and malnutrition, which could decrease health standards and increase infant mortality. Around 1980 cash incentives were given for sterilization acceptors. The government was repeatedly aware of the link between available resources and the demands of an increasing population. The Ministry of Health targeted zero population growth by the year 2050 and a two child family average by the year 2000. Stabilization of population in 2050 at 25 million would be an increase from 18.6 million in 1993. One of the signs of permanent fertility decline was the large declines in fertility during 1975-87 in the older reproductive age groups. By 1987-93 large declines were apparent in older and younger age groups. Family limitation was begun at relatively early ages. The inference from fertility declines during the 1980s recorded in the Demographic and Health Surveys in 1987 and 1993 is that the total fertility rate for 1991-93 was 2.06, which is lower than replacement level fertility of 2.1.

Growing Proportion of Thai Women Now Begin Contraceptive Use to Delay First Marital Birth

This paper presents the results of an analysis of contraceptive initiation patterns based on the 1987 Thailand Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). Using questions unique to the TDHS the researchers examined patterns of first contraceptive use among 6775 married women aged 15-49 years. The results showed that recently married women were more likely to use a contraceptive method than those who had been married for 20 years or more. Among women in all marriage cohorts the proportion of those who began contraceptive use prior to a first pregnancy was higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The contraceptive pill was the most commonly used method among women who initiate use before first pregnancy. In the analysis of contraceptive initiation after childbirth results indicated that women initiate contraceptive use soon after delivery to space births. These findings suggest that Thailand has reached an advanced stage of fertility transition and Thai women may be on the way toward achieving full control over marital fertility.

Comment on Knodel’s “starting, stopping, and spacing during the early stages of fertility transition”

the behavioral changes that accompanied historical fertility declines. One of the central questions in this discussion has been the relative importance of two alternative, and perhaps complimentary, fertility-limiting behaviors. The first of these behaviors, "stopping," refers to the attempted truncation or termination of childbearing after some desired family size has been achieved. Until recent times both theories and methods of historical demographic analysis have implicitly assumed that the only significant behavioral change resulting in early fertility declines was the widespread onset of stopping behavior. A second behavior that may be used to limit achieved fertility is the intentional lengthening of interbirth intervals or delay during marital childbearing, that is, "spacing." In at least some fertility declines (e.g., American), lengthened interbirth intervals appear to have been significant. The possible significance of historical birth spacing poses both theoretical and methodological problems. Theoretically, spacing challenges the model of discontinuous decision making in which a couple's fertility is unaffected by the surrounding circumstances and context until a desired limit is reached. Addressing the possible lengthening of interbirth intervals presents a more complicated, and perhaps more realistic, portrayal of decision making that is responsive to both the immediate circumstances and speculations concerning future circumstances. The challenge that spacing behavior poses to traditional methods of historical fertility analysis is of equal import. It is perhaps natural that spacing should receive greater attention in studies influenced by the more recent focus on life-course patterns, the increasing availability of historical life-course data, and contemporary methods of event-history analysis. The larger body of historical fertility research, however, has relied heavily on indices and measurements that implicitly assume that only stopping behavior contributes to fertility "limitation" [e.g., Coale and Trussell's M and m (1974, 1978)]. Knodel, presumably seeking to avoid the inherent limitation of such indices relies largely on age at last birth and McDonald's (1984) supposed decomposition of spacing and stopping effects. Although there are broad theoretical and methodological issues surrounding spacing behavior, this comment is confined to an illustration that neither age at last birth nor McDonald's decomposition adequately assesses the presence of birth spacing. Knodel employed age at last birth as an indicator of stopping behavior, but he also noted that increases in interconfinement intervals may be anticipated to increase open intervals and thereby lower the age at last birth. The effect is demonstrated in Figure 1. The parity-specific mean birth intervals for women with both 6 and 8 children ever born from the 1860 birth cohort of once-married women in Utah (Anderton and Bean, 1985) is used for illustration. The plot presents the observed mean birth intervals by parity (labeled CEB 6 and CEB 8) and predictions of the following birth intervals at the next higher parity should