Ahead of target: Achievement of replacement level fertility in Sri Lanka before the year 2000

Abstract

Sri Lanka is now at the stage of fertility transition where it is approaching below replacement level fertility. The total fertility rate for 1988-93 was 2.3 children per woman. Fertility was low, even though only 66% of currently married women were practicing contraception. The low fertility despite a contraceptive use rate lower than the 71% needed for replacement level fertility may have been achieved in part due to reliance on induced abortion in large numbers. During 1960-90 Sri Lanka has experienced the highest rate of fertility decline compared with other South Asian countries. Demographic transition occurred according to the pattern of initial declines in the death rate since 1947. Births did not begin to decline until 1960 (from 37 per 1000 in 1960 to 20 per 1000 in 1970). Family planning efforts were expanded during 1968-77 and integrated into maternal and child health programs. The 1972-76 Five Year Plan recognized the importance of family planning in the context of low standards of living and malnutrition, which could decrease health standards and increase infant mortality. Around 1980 cash incentives were given for sterilization acceptors. The government was repeatedly aware of the link between available resources and the demands of an increasing population. The Ministry of Health targeted zero population growth by the year 2050 and a two child family average by the year 2000. Stabilization of population in 2050 at 25 million would be an increase from 18.6 million in 1993. One of the signs of permanent fertility decline was the large declines in fertility during 1975-87 in the older reproductive age groups. By 1987-93 large declines were apparent in older and younger age groups. Family limitation was begun at relatively early ages. The inference from fertility declines during the 1980s recorded in the Demographic and Health Surveys in 1987 and 1993 is that the total fertility rate for 1991-93 was 2.06, which is lower than replacement level fertility of 2.1.