As government control has lessened, refiners are dealing with a market driven industry which will result in refineries offering gasoline of a higher octane rating. 89 octane was regarded as a target for 1992, but that level might prove non-competitive because some majors are already marketing 93 octane premium gasoline. (It is reasonable to expect that automobile manufacturers will react by offering higher perfomance engines). On a basis of a 1% annual growth rate in gasoline demand for the higher octane fuels, US refiners surplus gasoline supply capability will be exhausted in 1990. This projected shortfall is not likely to be alleviated through imports. US refiners should have good opportunity to plan for changes in an orderly manner and for stable profits.