Stable Exchange Research Articles

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Bangladeshi Exports: An ARDL Bound Testing Technique

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Bangladeshi Exports: An ARDL Bound Testing Technique

Effect of Public Finance Implications on The Economic Standard of Nigerians: A Longitudinal Study

This study examined the impact of the national budget, exchange rates, trade openness, inflation rates, and interest rates on the purchasing power parity and per capita income of Nigeria during the period spanning from 2009 to 2022. Data was gathered from the Central Bank Nigeria and the World Bank. The data was further analyzed using descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Square methods at a significance level of 5% for the purpose of detailed estimation. Results of the study showed that the national budget, exchange rates, trade openness, inflation rates, and interest rates had significant and positive impacts on Nigeria’s purchasing power parity and per capita income. The results of the study imply that, to increase the purchasing power parity and per capita income of Nigerian citizens, the government should focus on improving the quality of budget execution, ensure exchange rate stability, implement more trade policies that will open the Nigerian market and increase foreign investment, focus on maintaining a low inflation rate, and ensure the stability of

Practical Strategies for The Economic Development of Mexico: Nearshoring Trend

This research aimed to suggest practical strategies for Mexico's economic development through the trend of nearshoring. It involved identifying, analyzing, and organizing the causes of the conflict between China and the USA over international trade and exploring the opportunities that nearshoring to Mexico can offer. Qualitative research methods were applied, and documentary research techniques were used based on two study objects: a) the Sino-American dispute over international trade and b) nearshoring to Mexico. Nearshoring to Mexico is driven by various factors, including tariff benefits from Free Trade Agreements, low labor costs in manufacturing companies, and a stable exchange rate. Therefore, Mexico needs to encourage the development of industrial parks, implement an effective Public Security Policy, offer tax incentives to attract Foreign Direct Investment and improve port, road, and air infrastructure to take full advantage of this trend.

Exploring Inflation Dynamics with the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model

Unlike in many advanced and emerging market economies, inflation was already a problem for the Turkish economy before the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 1990s, Türkiye experienced severe inflation, which reached three digits in some months. Although inflation was reduced to single digits in the 2000s through a successful disinflation program under an implicit inflation targeting framework with a flexible exchange rate regime, price stability became a problem again after the global financial crisis. Inflation gradually increased during the 2010s and became out of control after late 2021. This study aims to explore inflation dynamics in Türkiye using the Phillips curve framework for different inflation environments. To this end, the Phillips curve equation, augmented with the exchange rate and oil prices, is estimated using the Markov regime switching model between January 2006 and September 2023. Two regimes are identified in the sample, namely low- and high-inflation regimes. According to the estimation results, the Phillips curve is invalid in both regimes. The unemployment gap is statistically insignificant despite its negative impact on current inflation. The increasing coefficient of backward inflation in the high regime reflects the resurgent indexation behavior, which was dominant before inflation targeting was introduced in Türkiye. The positive impact of oil prices is only statistically significant in the low regime. While an increase in the exchange rate significantly raises inflation in both regimes, the effect is greater in the high-inflation regime. These empirical findings indicate that the primary issues for controlling inflation in Türkiye are inflation inertia and exchange rate stability.

The Effect of the Exchange Rate on Price Stability in Iraq from 2004-2022

This Paper examines how the exchange rate influences price stability in Iraq using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Monthly data covering the period from January 2004 to April 2022 are employed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used as the dependent variable and Exchange Rate (EX), Oil Prices (OILR), Money Supply (M2), Policy Interest Rates (IR), and Government Spending (GOSP) as independent variables. The ARDL bound test results confirm a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and price stability in Iraq; the results indicate that a more robust exchange rate is associated with higher price stability, emphasizing potential benefits from currency strength. The positive link between government spending and price stability suggests the stabilizing impact of fiscal policies. In contrast, the negative association between interest rates and price stability corresponds to expectations of reduced economic activity. Findings on money supply support the quantity theory of money, and the negative relationship between oil revenue and price stability highlights challenges associated with economic reliance on oil. The Paper offers valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of exchange rate stability, economic diversification, and precise adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies to ensure sustained price stability in Iraq. Paper type: Research paper.

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: 1981-2019 (ARDL MODEL)

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape.

Ghosting Phenomenon in Interpersonal Communication of Bumble Application Users

Technological developments have made it easier for humans to build interpersonal relationships, one of which is using dating apps. One phenomenon that is often found in dating apps is the ghosting phenomenon. The ghosting phenomenon is an indirect termination of relationships that can hinder communication. However, many adult couples often fail or experience a breakup when they are at the approach stage. In general, someone experiencing the end of a relationship or losing a partner can be a very traumatic and sad experience and can disrupt a person's mental health. This research aims to find out at what stage the ghosting phenomenon occurs in interpersonal communication on the dating app Bumble. This research uses a phenomenological research method with a qualitative approach, data collection techniques of in-depth interviews and observation. The theory used is the Social Penetration Theory which has four stages in a relationship, namely the orientation stage, affective exploratory exchange, affective exchange and stable exchange. The results of this research show that the ghosting phenomenon can occur at every stage of a relationship, during the introduction stage or when the relationship is already close to each other. This experience of ghosting behavior also creates communication barriers between people and leaves the victim feeling uncomfortable.

RMB Internationalization: Exploring Trends and Implications

The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the historical evolution of the internationalisation process of the RMB and to assess its current status in the global economy. At the same time, in light of the evolution of the current international monetary system, especially the key stages of the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system and the Jamaican system, it provides an in-depth exploration of the challenges of the times, such as exchange rate stabilisation and de-dollarisation, faced by the internationalisation of the RMB. The article focuses on the ten milestones of RMB internationalisation, detailing the collaborative efforts and achievements of East Asian economic powers such as ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea in promoting the internationalisation of the RMB. These achievements reflect the positive response to external economic developments and highlight the growing importance of the RMB in the international monetary system. The article analyses the positive role of the Belt and Road Initiative in promoting the internationalisation of the RMB. It has facilitated international economic exchanges and cooperation by simplifying the financing process. The article also provides an in-depth analysis of the many factors affecting RMB depreciation, such as trade wars. It reveals the wide-ranging impacts of these factors on various sectors, especially Chinese exporters. Based on this, the article emphasises the significance of preserving the stability of the RMB exchange rate as a crucial factor to be fully considered while advancing the internationalisation of the RMB. Lastly, the article proposes several constructive suggestions to further promote the internationalisation of the RMB, which offer valuable references for the future development of the international monetary system.

Determinants of bank efficiency in developed (G7) and developing (E7) countries: role of regulatory and economic environment

AbstractEfficiency is one of the key factors promoting the long-term performance and sustainability of the banking industry. In this context, this paper investigates the implications of the regulatory environment, macroeconomic factors, monetary conditions, and uncertainty for the banking sectors’ operating as well as investment efficiencies. Using data from G7 and E7 countries from 2001 to 2020, we employ a set of empirical techniques, including Fixed Effects, Random Effects, Panel Fully Modified Least Squares, Panel Dynamic Least Squares and Generalized Method of Moments. Our key findings show that leverage, capital adequacy, monetary conditions, economic growth, price stability as well as exchange rate stability and uncertainty have substantial effects on bank efficiency, with notable differences between impact on operational and investment efficiencies and developed (G7) and developing (E7) economies.

Сoordination of fiscal and monetary policy in Ukraine

In the conditions of uncertainty and economic instability, the issue of researching approaches to strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is becoming relevant. The aim of the research is to justify directions for strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy of Ukraine. It is hypothesized that the level of fiscal and monetary policy coordination determines the country’s ability to ensure macroeconomic stability. Special and general scientific methods were used: system approach, theoretical generalization, induction and deduction, statistical, scientific abstraction. Strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is an important stabilization tool for ensuring the adaptation of the economy to social and economic conditions, curbing inflation in order to maintain exchange rate stability, reducing fundamental price pressure and directly overcoming inflationary processes. The toolkit of fiscal and monetary policy must be considered in an inseparable unity, taking into account the synergistic effect of ensuring macro­economic stability, which cannot be achieved exclusively by the tools of only one of the policies. The main directions of strengthening the coordination of the fiscal and monetary policy of Ukraine at this stage include: combining the tools inherent in both directions of policies, strengthening its flexibility and adaptability to socio-economic processes; sy­ner­gy of policy instruments in the context of ensuring debt sustainability and reducing fiscal risks; substantiation of the common strategic goals of policies, which will contribute to strengthening their coordination, in particular by developing an appropriate strategy; the development of a financial toolkit for prevention and response, within the framework of which policy instruments are used together, in particular by improving the traditional practice of applying macroprudential measures; streng­thening the independence of state institutions that ensure the formation and implementation of fiscal and monetary policy by continuing institutional and legislative reforms in the relevant areas.

Forecasting the future: applying Bayesian model averaging for exchange rates drivers in Ghana

ABSTRACT Exchange rate forecasts and stability have been a challenge for developing economies. This study analyses the possible exchange rate predictors in Ghana that are needed for policymaking. We perform an out-of-sample exchange rate forecast for the Ghana Cedis (GHS) per the United States dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) using the Bayesian model averaging for 1, 3 and 6-month horizons. We observed that domestic predictors largely drive the exchange rates in Ghana with the stock market index and fiscal operations exhibiting the strongest predictive power followed by the Taylor rule, and the real economic sector. Moreover, there is an international spillover from the US economy to Ghana’s exchange rate. Finally, we noticed that forecast accuracy improved at the 3-month-ahead.

Highly conductive and stable anion exchange membranes with dense flexible alkyl ether linkages and 1,2,4,5-tetramethylimidazolium for water electrolysis

Anion exchange membranes (AEMs) are key core materials in water electrolysis, requiring excellent conductivity and chemical durability. In this study, the suspended dense alkyl ether linkages and 1,2,4,5-tetramethylimidazolium ions with high stability are introduced into the polymer structure (PAES-FTMI-x, x = 0.15–0.30) for AEMs. The obtained AEMs with ion exchange capacity of 1.22–1.74 mmol g−1 exhibit high conductivity and dimensional stability. Their hydroxide ionic conductivity and swelling ratio are in the range of 76.28–113.17 mS cm−1 and 9.7%–17.0 % at 80 °C, respectively. The conductivity retention for the representative sample PAES-FTMI-0.25 achieves 90.6 % after soaked in 2 mol L−1 NaOH and 80 °C for 480 h. The assemble water electrolyzer based on PAES-FTMI-0.25 shows 734.97 mA cm−2 of current density at 2 mol L−1 NaOH and 2.0 V of voltage when the temperature is RT. It also has good durable stability at a current density of 500 mA cm−2 for 480 h with only 0.02 V decrease of voltage. This work would provide an effective strategy for the collaborative design and modification of AEMs for alkaline electrolyzed water.

THE ROLE OF PROFITABILITY AS A CHANNEL ON INFLUENCING THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMICS ON STOCK RETURNS IN THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that influenced stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, with profitability functioning as an intervening variable. It acts as a mediating variable, influencing how macroeconomic factors impact a company's stock returns. Companies with higher profitability can withstand macroeconomic impacts, leading to higher returns. It is crucial for a company to avoid rising stock returns and ensure stability. The population in this study is the consumer goods industry listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research sample consists of the consumer goods industry from 2020 to 2022.Sampling uses purposive sampling with data from 26 companies and 312 quarterly financial report data. Test the hypothesis using SmartPLS. The study reveals that exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation all negatively impact stock returns, with profitability acting as an intervening variable. Additionally, inflation also negatively impacts stock returns. This research implies that exchange rate stability is essential for companies carrying out export-import activities as a means of transaction in trade. The increase in interest rates encourages investors to continue investing in stocks because they are temporary and will return to their original level. Understanding the role of profitability in the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock performance can help investors make more informed decisions.

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade in Turkey

Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate the exchange rate volatility and international trade in Malaysia. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: Exchange rate volatility significantly impacts international trade by affecting exporters, importers, and trade volumes. It introduces uncertainty, raises hedging costs, and alters price competitiveness, leading to shifts in trade flows. While policymakers implement measures to manage volatility, their effectiveness is debated. Regional trade agreements can mitigate its impact, but challenges persist. Effective management of exchange rate volatility is essential for fostering stable international trade relationships. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP), the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA) & the balassa- samuelson effect may be used to anchor future studies on the exchange rate volatility and international trade in Malaysia. Implement risk management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade, including the use of financial derivatives, hedging instruments, and diversification strategies. Design and implement policies that strike a balance between exchange rate flexibility and stability, recognizing the trade-offs between exchange rate volatility and export competitiveness.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance: Case of Malaysia

Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate the exchange rate volatility and export performance: case of Malaysia
 Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries.
 Findings: Exchange rate volatility negatively impacts Malaysia's exports, reducing both volumes and revenues. Stable exchange rates are crucial for export competitiveness and attracting foreign investment. Effective hedging and exchange rate policies are recommended to mitigate volatility's adverse effects. Macroeconomic stability and structural reforms are essential for Malaysia's resilience to external shocks. Managing exchange rate volatility is key for sustaining Malaysia's export-led growth and fostering economic development.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Portfolio balance theory, j-curve theory & competitive devaluation theory may be used to anchor future studies on the exchange rate volatility and export performance: case of Malaysia. Malaysia can provide practical insights into how exporters can effectively integrate risk management strategies into their operations to mitigate the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility. Malaysia can serve as a model for proactive policy responses to exchange rate volatility, offering lessons and strategies that can be adapted by policymakers in other emerging economies.

Preference of a Currency for International Payments among the Three Major SDR Currencies

ABSTRACT This paper empirically examines the role of USD, EUR, and CNY as international payment currencies in Korea, China, and Japan. Our survey of business people in those countries finds that higher convertibility and stability of these currencies in the SDR enhance their acceptability and usability for international payments. However, even during times of instability, USD remains highly accepted and usable as a trade payment currency unlike the cases of EUR and CNY. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability is essential for improving the acceptability and usability of EUR and CNY as international payment currencies.

Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2020-2022

Inflation is one of the causes of an economic crisis in a country. Inflation is a continuous increase in prices over a certain period of time. The quantitative approach is the method used in this research with a population of 36 taken from monthly data for 2020-2022. Sampling used saturated samples, namely 36. The tests used multiple linear regression, classical assumption tests, partial tests and simultaneous tests. After carrying out a series of analyzes, a result was obtained that in part, both the exchange rate variable and the money supply variable had a significant influence on inflation in Indonesia. Then simultaneously the exchange rate and money supply have a significant influence on inflation in Indonesia. These two independent variables influence inflation by 44.5%. Inflation can be suppressed by maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate as well as the amount of money circulating in society

Enhancing proton conduction of MOF-74(Co) by encapsulating NH3 molecules

The functional design of efficient and stable proton exchange membrane materials is an important research direction in the field of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). In this work, ammonia molecules were successfully encapsulated into the one-dimensional pores of MOF-74(Co) through fumigation with ammonia vapor. Alternating current (AC) impedance tests showed that the proton conductivity of NH3 modified NH3@ MOF-74(Co) reaches an impressive value of 6.8 × 10−3 S/cm, being 10000 times that of the pristine MOF-74(Co) at 98% relative humidity (RH) and 50 °C. Various and abundant hydrogen bonds can improve the proton conduction of NH3 modified compound. This strategy provides an efficient and convenient way to construct high proton conducting porous MOFs materials by attaching NH3 molecules.

Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Price and Currency Stability in Bangladesh

This study investigates the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on inflation and exchange rate in Bangladesh in light of recent high inflation and the currency crisis. The analyses employ data from 1991 to 2022 to examine the ability of monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy by managing inflation and currency fluctuations. The ARDL bounds test approach is utilized to estimate the empirical relationships of the model specification from both monetarist and Keynesian perspectives. The study’s findings reveal that monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact inflation management, with monetary policy playing a more substantial role. The empirical relationship emphasizes that an increase in money supply and government spending positively affect inflation, with money supply having a greater impact on controlling domestic prices. Nevertheless, the study does not provide evidence that monetary and fiscal policies significantly influence exchange rate stabilization. The research indicates that enhancing the export sector, raising the amount of remittance inflows, reducing import reliance by promoting domestic production, prioritizing the reduction of fiscal reliance on monetary policy, and implementing a market-oriented exchange rate mechanism can aid in maintaining economic stability in terms of prices and currency. These outcomes provide valuable insight into the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in stabilizing the economy and offer relevant policy implications for policymakers in Bangladesh.

Examining the Relationship Between Geopolitical Events and Currency Market Dynamics

This paper delves into the intricate relationship between geopolitical events and exchange rates, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of how geopolitical factors influence the currency dynamics of a country and strategies to mitigate their impact. Geopolitical events, ranging from political tensions and conflicts to trade disputes and diplomatic relations, have profound implications for exchange rate stability and volatility.