Stable Exchange Research Articles

The Role of Central Bank of Nigeria in Exchange Rate Stabilization

The study X-rays the role of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in exchange rate stability in Nigeria, using quarterly time series data. The study adopts GARCH family models to decipher the potency of CBN’s monetary policy in exchange rate stability in Nigeria. Anchor interest rate, official exchange rate, and money supply were incorporated into the variance equation to determine their exact impact on the volatility variable (conditional variance). Empirical results show that Anchor interest rate, official exchange rate, and money supply are key in exchange rate stability in Nigeria. The study also finds that despite CBN’s official intervention, exchange rate instability in Nigeria persists overtime. It concludes that Central Bank of Nigeria has a major role to play in managing exchange rate volatility in Nigeria especially when it uses the aforementioned monetary policy tools.

The impact of dollar price fluctuations on the GDP of developing countries: Iraq as a model

The exchange rate is a tool of monetary policy, which is a matter of monetary policy, determined by the Central Bank of Iraq, as well as the subject of the exchange rate of complex topics, and the importance of this research lies in understanding the impact of dollar price fluctuations on the Iraqi economy, which contributes to enhancing knowledge about how external factors interact with local economic conditions, providing valuable recommendations for decision-makers to design effective strategies to deal with these fluctuations and achieve greater economic stability. The descriptive approach was used to collect and analyze economic data related to dollar price fluctuations and its impact on GDP, which helps to understand the relationships between these variables in Iraq during the period (2003-2024), the most important conclusions reached by the research that the general trend indicates sustainable growth in GDP, but economic challenges, such as exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, need to be effectively addressed. The government and central bank should promote economic stability through effective monetary policies that support growth and maintain exchange rate stability.

Foreign Portfolio Investment and Capital Market Development in Nigeria

This study investigates the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) on the development of the Nigerian capital market from 1986 to 2023, addressing challenges such as exchange rate volatility and inadequate technological advancement. The research aims to explore the following questions: What is the relationship between foreign portfolio investments and capital market development in Nigeria? How do exchange rate volatility influence the capital market development in Nigeria? What role do technological advancements play in enhancing market performance and attracting foreign investors? Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. A quantitative methodology was employed, utilizing the Johansen co-integration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger causality test to analyze secondary time-series data. The Johansen co-integration test revealed a long-run relationship among the variables, while the VECM indicated that FPI negatively impacts market capitalization. Additionally, the Granger causality test demonstrated unidirectional causality from capital market development to FPI. To address the identified challenges, the study recommends that policymakers create a more supportive environment that ensures foreign investors can repatriate capital and earnings. The government should prioritize exchange rate stability that reflects market realities to enhance investor confidence. Investments in advanced technology are crucial to improving efficiency and accountability in market transactions. By adopting these targeted recommendations, Nigeria can better leverage FPI to foster capital market growth and promote sustainable economic development. JEL Codes: G15, O16

Combining the pieces: identifying key determinants of export diversification in Africa amidst model uncertainty

AbstractExport diversification can be a driver of economic growth. Policies to diversify exports attempt to defy an existing comparative advantage in low-value-added goods to promote transformation. Many structural, general policy, and trade-related variables have been identified as important drivers of diversification. This article reviews the literature on the determinants of export diversification and applies Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to empirically tackle model uncertainty stemming from many possible determinants. It assesses the relevance and impact of up to 46 drivers of export diversification for up to 47 African countries and 123 trading partners from 1995 to 2018. It finds that African countries’ structural features are especially influential in determining export diversification, a potential explanation for Africa’s more concentrated export baskets compared to other world regions. Furthermore, trade policies, like tariffs and regional integration, are critical in promoting export diversification. These findings underscore the AfCFTA’s potential to foster export diversification across African economies. A diverse set of non-trade-related policy variables also significantly affect export diversification. Factors such as institutions, education, service sector, resource rents, financial development, FDI and exchange rate stability are relevant determinants in different settings. Moreover, the analysis shows that whom you trade with is also important for diversification, and that context-specific differences, such as specific regional integration contexts or type of commodity-dependence, matter. The results suggest that the goals to diversify exports at the extensive margin for structural change and the intensive margin to tackle volatility, seem often not achievable via the same policies.

Social Penetration Analysis in Self-Disclosure of Online Loan Application Users to Their Partners

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the disclosure of online loan users to their partners through social penetration theory. Information technology-based money lending services are one of the innovations in the financial sector, utilizing technology to facilitate lending transactions without meeting in person. This transaction mechanism is carried out through a system provided by the Fintech Lending Organizer, either through an application or a website. Several problems arise because of the characteristics of online loans that often terrorize and intimidate people close to them without asking permission. This study is descriptive, using data collection techniques on ten pairs of online loan informants with their partners. Data analysis was carried out using interactive techniques involving interactions between data collection, data reduction, data presentation, and conclusions. Based on the social penetration analysis, five pairs of informants decided to separate/divorce, while five pairs did not divorce. The five pairs of informants who did not divorce were at stages 3 (affective exchange) and 4 (stable exchange). The five pairs who divorced were at stage 2 (exploration of affective exchange), which decreased the development of their relationship to deterioration. Couples who eventually divorce receive negative Feedback from their partners in the form of anger, annoyance, and regret. The perpetrators decide to get involved in online loans without discussing it with their partners but also have no desire to discuss it. The perpetrators' mindset, household economic problems, characteristics of online loans, and skills in communicating issues to their partners color the couple's interactions towards the end of the relationship. On the other hand, supportive Feedback, personality, and gender of the partner are factors that influence self-disclosure.

Alkaline stable cross-linked anion exchange membrane based on steric hindrance effect and microphase-separated structure for water electrolyzer

This study focuses on the development of cross-linked anion exchange membranes (AEMs) based on polystyrene-b-poly(ethylene-co-butylene)-b-polystyrene (SEBS), known for its ether free backbone and excellent chemical stability. The cross-linked SEBS (X-SEBS-BC) membranes were synthesized using an eco-friendly method with SnCl4 under mild conditions. A cross-linking agent, 1,4-diazbicyclo[2.2.2]octane (DABCO), was employed to enhance ion conducting channels and improve alkaline stability by preventing degradation. The resulting membranes exhibited low swelling, high conductivity, and significant chemical stability in alkaline environments. This is achieved through the rigid cage-like structure of DABCO, which hinders syn-periplanar conformational changes and protects against the degradation of SN2 and ylide reactions. Their well-defined microphase-separated morphology, observed through TEM, supports effective ion transport. Notably, the X-SEBS-BC-0.81 membrane showed excellent alkaline stability, with minimal degradation in 3 M KOH over 30 days at 30 °C and 3.3% degradation in 1 M KOH over 600 hours at 50 °C. In water electrolysis tests, this membrane demonstrated superior performance (0.95 Acm−2 at 2.0 V), surpassing the commercial FAA-3-50 membrane by 82%. These findings highlight the potential of X-SEBS BC membranes for advanced AEM applications, particularly in water electrolysis..

FX resilience around the world: Fighting volatile cross-border capital flows

The volatility of cross-border capital flow (CF) has become higher in the last two decades. We use a sample of advanced and emerging market economies in the last two decades, with a focus on portfolio fund flows (equities and bonds). We find that the impact of portfolio CF volatility on exchange rate (FX) volatility is diminished in the short-term if specific economic fundamentals of the country are stronger, especially when these fundamentals pass certain threshold levels. The finding is controlled for different exchange rate regimes and the level of capital control. We further introduce an intuitive FX resilience measure that can be used to assess the stability of exchange rates in the context of heightened CF volatility. The decomposed FX resilience measure shows that the major contributing fundamentals to FX resilience are from the finance channel, including short-term interest rate, fiscal surplus, and financial development.

Divergent Relationships between Exchange Rate Pass-through and Policy Rates Across Economies: An Extension of the Taylor Rule

Although central banks often prioritize exchange rate stability, its role is frequently overlooked in the monetary policy analysis and simple interest rate rules do not comprise exchange rate arguments even in small open economies. This study extends the traditional Taylor rule by incorporating exchange rate deviations to determine their influence on monetary policy conduct across various economies. Our findings reveal heterogeneous impacts of exchange rate deviations on policy rates. Specifically, exchange rates significantly influence monetary policy in economies with fixed exchange rate regimes, higher foreign reserve ratios and lower levels of financial development.

Analysis of Exchange Rate Stability on the Economic Growth Process of a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa from 2000 to 2023

This study examines the impact of exchange rate stability on the economic growth of South Africa from 2000 to 2023, a period characterised by significant political and economic changes. Exchange rate stability is critical for developing countries, affecting key macroeconomic variables such as trade balances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation. For emerging economies like South Africa, maintaining a stable exchange rate can reduce uncertainty in international transactions, foster investor confidence, and support sustainable economic development. This research explores whether consistent exchange rate management has positively influenced South Africa’s economic trajectory, particularly by mitigating the adverse effects of global shocks and domestic volatility. Using the EasyData online database, which contains yearly time series data, the method of analysis adopted by the research is the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method. The findings show that while exchange rate stability positively impacts GDP, the influence of FDI and political risk is more substantial. These results underscore the importance of fostering a stable economic environment through sound exchange rate policies, political stability, and efforts to attract foreign investments to ensure long-term economic growth.

Financial development, international reserves, and real exchange rate dynamics: Insights from the Europe and Central Asia region

This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how financial development levels affect this relationship. Using panel threshold regression, the analysis reveals that international reserves significantly stabilize RER when reserves exceed 17.28 % of GDP, especially in countries with underdeveloped financial systems. The findings suggest that reserves play a more critical role in less developed financial markets, providing insights for policymakers on optimal reserve management and financial development strategies in emerging economies.

Depreciation and Trade Balance: An Exploration of the J-Curve Phenomenon in Indonesia

Research Originality: Global economic uncertainty has increased in recent years, leading to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to most global currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah. The novelty of this study is the inclusion of natural resource commodity price index variables, given the importance of these commodities in Indonesia's balance of trade.Research Objectives: This study aims to examine the effect of rupiah exchange rate depreciation on Indonesia's trade balance.Research Methods: This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze Indonesia's balance of trade from January 2015 to December 2023, examining the potential J-Curve phenomenon resulting from the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah.Empirical Result: Findings from the impulse response analysis suggest that the J-Curve phenomenon is present in Indonesia's balance of trade as a result of the rupiah's depreciation. The results of this study also confirm the positive effect of increasing natural resource commodity prices on Indonesia's trade balance.Implications: The implication of these findings is that exchange rate depreciation can improve Indonesia's trade balance only when natural resource commodity prices are rising. Conversely, if commodity prices decline, maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate becomes crucial.JEL Classification: F11, F14, F31, Q02

EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

This research paper explores the dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations and their far-reaching implications for the global economy. Exchange rates are pivotal in shaping trade balances, inflation, and capital flows, making them a critical factor for policymakers, multinational corporations, and investors. By examining both theoretical frameworks and empirical evidence, this study analyzes the effects of exchange rate movements on key economic variables such as inflation rates, gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and international trade balances. The paper employs a combination of econometric modeling and historical data analysis to evaluate how these fluctuations have influenced emerging and developed economies over the past two decades. Results indicate that exchange rate volatility can lead to inflationary pressures in import-dependent economies, disrupt trade balances, and influence FDI inflows. The findings also underscore the importance of stable exchange rate policies to mitigate economic uncertainty. This study concludes with recommendations for future research, particularly regarding the influence of digital currencies and geopolitical tensions on exchange rate stability.

Analysis Of The Influence Of Port Export And Import Volume On Economic Growth In North Sumatera And West Sumatera Provinces

Using a quantitative approach, this study investigates the effect of port export and import volumes on economic growth in North Sumatra and West Sumatra Provinces. Time series data from the World Bank and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from 2006 to 2023 are used as secondary data. The analysis uses the ARDL Panel model, which allows for analysis of data dynamics across time and regions. The results show that the three main indicators that affect economic growth (GRDP) in both provinces, both in the short and long term, are export volume, inflation, and exchange rates. In North Sumatra, export volume has a positive impact on GRDP, while import volume has a negative impact, indicating a risk of dependence on imports. Controlled inflation also has a positive impact, while the exchange rate shows a diversion. Policy recommendations are expected to improve global competitiveness and exchange rate stability through coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, support for the Export Capacity Building Program and MSMEs through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Framework (RCEP), and export diversification to reduce dependence on certain commodities. This study emphasizes that policies that are responsive to changes in trade at the national to international levels are an important foundation for stabilizing sustainable economic growth.

The Impact of Bilateral Currency Swaps on Outward Foreign Direct Investment

The outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis caused many countries around the world to face exchange rate fluctuations and currency crises. At the same time, China's central bank creatively began to sign central bank currency swap agreements with other countries to stabilize exchange rates and avoid the risk of fluctuations in the US dollar. This article is based on panel data from 90 countries from 2000 to 2021, and uses empirical analysis methods to explore the impact of currency swap agreements on China's outward foreign direct investment. On this basis, the intermediary effect is applied to analyze the financial market mechanism of currency swap policy. Research has found that currency swap agreements have a significant positive impact on the scale of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Financing constraints are an important influencing mechanism for currency swap agreements to promote China's OFDI. In the context of economic globalization and complex international situations, this study has important reference value for China to further promote deepening cooperation in the financial field between countries and promote the internationalization of the renminbi to facilitate the domestic and international dual circulation.

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT, GDP, AND PESO – BAHT EXCHANGE RATE ON PHILIPPINE TRADE IN DESICCATED COCONUT USING THE GRAVITY MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of freight transport, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Peso-Baht exchange rate on the trade of desiccated coconut between the Philippines and Thailand, utilizing the Gravity Model of International Trade. The primary aim is to understand the significant factors influencing the trade flow and to identify areas for improvement in international competitiveness. Theoretical Framework: The research is grounded in international trade theories, focusing on the Gravity Model, which emphasizes the roles of economic mass and geographical distance in determining trade flows. Method: This study made use of the ADF - Unit Root Test, Durbin – Watson Test, Jarque – Bera Test, Variance Inflationary Factor (VIF), Chow Breakpoint Test, Ramsey’s RESET, and Johansen Cointegration, to test the relationship between variables. Results and Discussion: The results of this study highlights the positive, yet insignificant effect of Thailand, and Philippines’ GDP on the trade in desiccated coconut. The exchange rate, and freight transport negatively impacts the trade, however, it is notable that only freight transport having a significant effect. Research Implications: The study provides insights into the logistical and economic challenges in the desiccated coconut trade, suggesting that addressing transportation inefficiencies and stabilizing exchange rates could enhance trade performance. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by applying an innovative approach to desiccated coconut, revealing how logistical inefficiencies and economic variables affect trade flows and influence policy decisions. This research aids in enhancing trade efficiency between agricultural-exporting nations like the Philippines and Thailand.

Effects of trilemma policies patterns on monetary policy credibility

The open economy trilemma refers to the impossibility of a country fully and simultaneously achieving three political objectives: monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial openness. However, corner configurations related to the three policies of the trilemma are increasingly rare. In fact, countries tend to choose a policy combination composed of partial financial integration, managed exchange rate flexibility and partial monetary independence. Given the possibility of intermediate choices, there exists an index able to measure the relative divergence (or convergence) regarding the policy choices of the trilemma. The index identifies whether countries are adopting similar (or divergent) policy mixes in relation to the trilemma policy options. However, the consequences of adopting a more (or less) convergent policy arrangement on monetary policy credibility are unknown. Hence, this study investigates the effects of trilemma policies convergence patterns on monetary policy credibility. The idea is to verify whether a more convergent arrangement of policies related to the trilemma in open economies helps build monetary policy credibility. Our database is formed by 94 (developed and developing) countries with different characteristics. Thus, we run estimates based on a family of Tobit models for different sub-samples of countries, and also considering different periods – before and after the Global Financial Crisis. The study brings important practical implications. In general, the findings show that a convergent strategy increases credibility. The estimates corroborate the idea that countries adopting divergent policies from the global standard tend to be more exposed to economic instability and, as a result, have difficulties in anchoring inflation expectations.

Electrochemical activation of Pt electrode for efficient and stable anion exchange membrane ammonia electrolyzer

Replacing the oxygen evolution reaction in water electrolysis with ammonia oxidation reaction enables low voltage hydrogen production. Pt is a promising catalyst for the ammonia oxidation reaction due to its superior dehydrogenation and low affinity for *N, but Nads poisoning deactivates the Pt surface. This study proposes a method to improve ammonia oxidation performance and stability through electrochemical activation, introducing cathodic corrosion and recovery conditions. The half-cell results showed a peak current density of 74.2 mA cm−2 and retention ratio of 17 %. Adjusting the lower and upper cell voltage in a membrane electrode assembly based single cell optimized surface cleaning and inhibits further poisoning by O/OHads above 0.75 Vcell. Furthermore, incorporation of recovery conditions can enhance the stability of poisoned electrode compared to that in chronoamperometry test. The results of pulsed ammonia electrolysis tests incorporating recovery conditions suggested a novel approach to practical hydrogen production by stabilizing catalysts with a 83 % Faradaic efficiency at 0.1 A cm−2

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION TARGETING MONETARY POLICY ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TURKEY DURING 2002-2022

The main aim of the study is to investigate the impact of inflation targeting (IT) strategy in Turkey during 2002-2022, which was adopted in a three-year period of 2002-2004, on macroeconomic performance (actual inflation, exchange and interest rates) and economic growth of Turkey (in terms of the real GDP). The econometric and empirical investigation of this research focusing on the impact of inflation targeting on the selected macroeconomic variables were carried out by the linear squares method (LSM) regression taking the data of the period after implementation of the monetary policy. At this, the independent variable of inflation targeting was estimated against each chosen macroeconomic variable separately in four different models to catch its linear impact on the changes of these variables over the period after implementation of the strategy. The empirical outcomes demonstrated that inflation targeting monetary policy is strong enough to impact the macroeconomic performance of Turkey in terms of reducing inflation rates, boosting economy by pushing real GDP to grow, stabilize exchange rates and lower the nominal interest rates on deposits.

Interest rates, money supply, institutional quality, and exchange rate stability in Nigeria

Interest rates, money supply, institutional quality, and exchange rate stability in Nigeria

Multi-Robot Path Planning Algorithm for Collaborative Mapping under Communication Constraints

In extensive outdoor collaborative exploration tasks, multiple robots require efficient path planning methods to ensure rapid and comprehensive map construction. However, current collaborative mapping algorithms often integrate poorly with path planning, especially under limited communication conditions. Such conditions can complicate data exchange, leading to inefficiencies and missed areas in real-world environments. This paper introduces a path planning approach specifically designed for distributed collaborative mapping tasks, aimed at enhancing map completeness, mapping efficiency, and communication robustness under communication constraints. We frame the entire task as a k-Chinese Postman Problem (k-CPP) and optimize it using a genetic algorithm (GA). This method fully leverages topology maps to efficiently plan subpaths for multiple robots, ensuring thorough coverage of the mapping area without the need for prior navigation maps. Additionally, we incorporate communication constraints into our path planning to ensure stable data exchange among robots in environments with only short-range communication capabilities. Field experiment results highlight the superior performance of our method in terms of stability, efficiency, and robust inter-robot communication.