Spruce Budworm Outbreaks Research Articles

Impacts of spruce budworm defoliation on the habitat of woodland caribou, moose, and their main predators.

Forest logging has contributed to the decline of several woodland caribou populations by causing the fragmentation of mature coniferous stands. Such habitat alterations could be worsened by spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks. Using 6201 vegetation plots from provincial inventories conducted after the last SBW outbreak (1968–1992) in boreal forests of Québec (Canada), we investigated the influence of SBW‐caused tree defoliation and mortality on understory vegetation layers relevant to woodland caribou and its main predators. We found a positive association between severe outbreaks and the cover of most groups of understory plant species, especially in stands that were dominated by balsam fir before the outbreak, where a high canopy openness particularly benefited relatively fast‐growing deciduous plants. Such increases in early successional vegetation could provide high‐quality forage for moose, which is likely to promote higher wolf densities and increase predation pressure on caribou. SBW outbreaks may thus negatively affect woodland caribou by increasing predation risk, the main factor limiting caribou populations in managed forests. For the near future, we recommend updating the criteria used to define critical caribou habitat to consider the potential impacts of spruce budworm defoliation.

Differential defoliation and mortality of white spruce and balsam fir by eastern spruce budworm

Eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native defoliating insect in Canada and the United States that has large impacts on forest health. Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and white spruce (Picea glauca) are its primary host trees, where budworm larvae consume buds and needles during larval development. While Eastern spruce budworm consumes both species, it is generally reported to defoliate balsam fir at higher levels. Investigating patterns and conditions that differentiate species’ defoliation and mortality is informative for understanding susceptibility. We studied an outbreak of spruce budworm at plantations in northern Wisconsin, USA, with defoliation first detected in 2014 that appeared to have higher impacts on white spruce, which is counter to general expectations. In 2019, we quantified spruce budworm impacts on these two tree species and tested which tree characteristics were most associated with tree defoliation and mortality. We found mortality of 60% and 49% at the sites for white spruce trees, while 0% of the balsam fir trees surveyed were dead. We determined that tree species was the main factor related to spruce budworm defoliation, rather than tree diameter at breast height or canopy class and suggest that different timing of species-specific mast-seeding events were related to defoliation and tree mortality.

Modeling weather-driven long-distance dispersal of spruce budworm moths (Choristoneura fumiferana). Part 1: Model description

Long-term studies of insect populations in the North American boreal forest have shown the vital importance of long-distance dispersal to the maintenance and expansion of insect outbreaks. In this work, we extend several concepts established previously in an empirically-based dispersal flight model with recent work on the physiology and behavior of the adult eastern spruce budworm (SBW) moth, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens). An outbreak of defoliating SBW in Quebec, ongoing since the mid-2000s, already covers millions of hectares of forests in eastern Canada and threatens to spread into neighboring areas through annual summertime episodes of long-distance dispersal. Such flight events in favorable conditions frequently include billions of SBW moths dispersing in the warm atmospheric boundary layer, typically starting around sunset and often lasting through several hours of wind-driven transport over hundreds of kilometers. Successful SBW dispersal to possibly distant host forest areas depends acutely on the weather. Here we describe the components and results of SBW–pyATM, an open-source individual-based modeling framework developed in Python for the simulation of these weather-driven SBW dispersal events. Using seasonal SBW phenology results from BioSIM at known outbreak locations and high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output, we focus on modeling dispersal flights over two successive nights in July 2013 in southern Quebec. Our flight model closely reproduces the SBW spatial patterns and motions observed by weather surveillance radar over the St. Lawrence estuary. With SBW–pyATM we can estimate landing locations for both male and female SBW and the resulting spatial patterns of egg distribution, allowing us eventually to forecast future larval defoliation activity in new locations where immigration could help overcome local limitations on SBW populations. This information could then support forest management decisions where SBW outbreaks threaten valuable resources.

Prevailing winds and spruce budworm outbreaks: a reaction-diffusion-advection model

We extend the classical reaction-diffusion model for spatial population dynamics of spruce budworm on a finite domain with hostile boundary conditions by including an advection term representing biased unidirectional movement of individuals due to a prevailing wind. We use phase-plane techniques to establish existence of a critical value of advection speed that prevents outbreak solutions on any finite domain while possibly allowing an endemic solution. We obtain lower and upper bounds for this critical advection value in terms of biological parameters involved in the reaction term. We also perform numerical simulations to illustrate the effect of advection on the dependence of the domain size on the maximal population density of a steady state solution and on critical domain sizes for endemic and outbreak solutions. The results are also applicable to other ecological settings (rivers, climate change) where a logistically growing population is subject to predation by a generalist, diffusion and biased movement.

Economic impacts of partial harvesting: Mitigating mid-term timber supply shortages as a result of pest outbreaks

Natural disturbances such as pest outbreaks have a significant impact on forest dynamics and services, including the loss of mature stands. From a wood production perspective, these disturbances can lead to long-lasting imbalances in the overall age-class structure of the forest, potentially resulting in a shortage of mature harvestable stands. Researchers from Natural Resources Canada’s (NRCan) Canadian Forest Service (CFS) have made a timber supply analysis of the Dunière forest located in the centre of the Gaspé Peninsula (Québec). This region suffers from an age-class structure imbalance caused by an eastern spruce budworm (ESB) outbreak that ended in 1984, and is consequently facing a reduced annual allowable cut, leading to long- term implications for the regional forest sector. The authors suggest that partial harvesting – the removal of a proportion of timber in a mature stand several years before a final cut is carried out – is a promising opportunity in the ESB-affected area for mitigating mid-term timber supply shortages by smoothing the fibre supply over time.

Insect-mediated apparent competition between mammals in a boreal food web

While the important role of animal-mediated interactions in the top-down restructuring of plant communities is well documented, less is known of their ensuing repercussions at higher trophic levels. We demonstrate how typically decoupled ecological interactions may become intertwined such that the impact of an insect pest on forest structure and composition alters predator-prey interactions among large mammals. Specifically, we show how irruptions in a common, cyclic insect pest of the boreal forest, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), modulated an indirect trophic interaction by initiating a flush in deciduous vegetation that benefited moose (Alces alces), in turn strengthening apparent competition between moose and threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) via wolf (Canis lupus) predation. Critically, predation on caribou postoutbreak was exacerbated by human activity (salvage logging). We believe our observations of significant, large-scale reverberating consumer-producer-consumer interactions are likely to be common in nature.

Insectivorous songbirds as early indicators of future defoliation by spruce budworm

ContextAlthough the spatiotemporal dynamics of spruce budworm outbreaks have been intensively studied, forecasting outbreaks remains challenging. During outbreaks, budworm-linked warblers (Tennessee, Cape May, and bay-breasted warbler) show a strong positive response to increases in spruce budworm, but little is known about the relative timing of these responses.ObjectivesWe hypothesized that these warblers could be used as sentinels of future defoliation of budworm host trees. We examined the timing and magnitude of the relationships between defoliation by spruce budworm and changes in the probability of presence of warblers to determine whether they responded to budworm infestation before local defoliation being observed by standard detection methods.MethodsWe modelled this relationship using large-scale point count surveys of songbirds and maps of cumulative time-lagged defoliation over multiple spatial scales (2–30 km radius around sampling points) in Quebec, Canada.ResultsAll three warbler species responded positively to defoliation at each spatial scale considered, but the timing of their response differed. Maximum probability of presence of Tennessee and Cape May warbler coincided with observations of local defoliation, or provided a one year warning, making them of little use to guide early interventions. In contrast, the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler consistently increased 3–4 years before defoliation was detectable.ConclusionsEarly detection is a critical step in the management of spruce budworm outbreaks and rapid increases in the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler could be used to identify future epicenters and target ground-based local sampling of spruce budworm.

Predicting balsam fir mortality in boreal stands affected by spruce budworm

During spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks, stands dominated by balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) suffer marked levels of mortality after consecutive years of defoliation. The balsam fir mortality rate is also influenced by such factors as stand age and forest composition. Nonetheless, the relative importance of these factors when predicting balsam fir mortality during an outbreak remains uncertain. Here we present models for predicting balsam fir mortality rates on the basis of defoliation duration and intensity, stand age, and forest composition. We found a significant increase in balsam fir mortality rates with an increased duration and intensity of defoliation. Balsam fir experienced >22% mortality after five years of continuous severe defoliation. The model identified cumulative defoliation—a commonly used measure in Canada of the sum of annual defoliation intensities experienced by a stand over a given defoliation period—as an effective index for predicting mortality. Detailed cumulative defoliation, a factor specifying the frequency of different levels of annual defoliation intensities experienced by a stand over a given defoliation period, provided even more reliable results. Mature stands experienced 5% greater mortality than immature stands, and mortality was 3% and 8% greater in pure balsam fir stands than in mixed balsam fir–spruce and mixed balsam fir–hardwood stands, respectively. The proportion of other tree species also affected the mortality prediction model. We attained 70% accuracy for our best model for predicting balsam fir mortality rate in heterogeneous mixed stands; this model included detailed cumulative defoliation, stand age, and the proportion of other species in the stand. Therefore, these factors must be included in decisions related to recovery cutting in forests affected by spruce budworm outbreaks.

Assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of a spruce budworm outbreak across the complex forested landscape of Maine, USA

Simulated spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) defoliation generally becomes ubiquitous in 3 years after its initiation in agreement with historical observations despite varying environmental and stand conditions over large ranges. Current-year defoliation has almost no correlation with defoliation more than 1 year ago at the same location, which may be related to the role of SBW dispersal in sustaining defoliation across space and time. Mitigation practices like insecticide spraying may be more efficient if applied early to initial spots (epicenters) of defoliation, while management probably should focus on improving forests’ resilience to withstand repeated defoliation by altering species composition. SBW defoliation during its periodic and extensive outbreaks greatly affects forest productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. A generalized modeling framework that simultaneously accounts for both highly variable spatial and temporal dynamics of SBW outbreaks has not been developed. To develop a flexible parametric spatiotemporal model to explicitly predict defoliation in continuous space and time in order to evaluate the dynamics of SBW outbreaks across a complex forested landscape. A novel model was developed on extensive defoliation data covering approximately 50,000 km2 and 10 years of the last SBW outbreak during the 1970s and 1980s in Maine, USA. Simulations of various outbreak scenarios were performed using this model. The developed model provided a sufficient fit of the data (R2 of 0.63 and mean bias of +0.3%) and was relatively consistent with expectations. Simulations show that defoliation generally becomes ubiquitous in 3 years despite varying environmental and stand conditions. Current-year defoliation has almost no correlation with defoliation more than 1 year ago at the same location, which may be related to the role of SBW dispersal in sustaining defoliation across space and time. Mitigation practices like insecticide spraying may be more efficient if applied early to initial spots (epicenters) of defoliation, while management probably should focus on improving forests’ resilience to withstand repeated defoliation by altering species composition. Our model provides quantitative information flexible in spatial and temporal scales yet directly usable in existing forest growth and yield modeling frameworks and management decision support systems. This generalized spatiotemporal model is readily extendable for evaluating spatial and temporal dynamics of other forms of defoliation across complex forest landscapes.

Budworm-linked warblers as early indicators of defoliation by spruce budworm: A field study

Outbreaks of eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana; hereafter SBW) are a major natural disturbance in coniferous forests of eastern North America. These outbreaks provide a superabundant source of food for insectivorous birds. Three species, referred to as budworm-linked warblers, exhibit strong positive numerical responses to early increases of SBW density: Tennessee Warbler (Leiothlypis peregrina), Cape May Warbler (Setophaga tigrina), and Bay-breasted Warbler (S. castanea). Their abundance increases even before defoliation is visible from aerial surveys. Budworm-linked warblers may detect new epicenters of SBW outbreaks through natal dispersal, as this movement is typically much more extensive than subsequent (breeding dispersal) movements. Our main objectives were, thus, (1) to determine whether sudden increases in the abundance of budworm-linked warblers could be used to detect early stages of SBW outbreaks, and (2) to examine age-specific responses of budworm-linked warblers to local and landscape-level habitat characteristics, in order to investigate the potential role of natal dispersal in the detection of new epicenters. To do so, we estimated the abundance of each species of budworm-linked warbler in 75 study plots sampling a gradient of SBW density and related them to 7 stand variables and landscape metrics with generalized additive mixed models. We also compared the responses of yearling (second-year; SY) and older (after-second-year; ASY) individuals to the density of SBW larvae and habitat variables at different spatial scales. We captured 31 Tennessee Warblers, 27 Cape May Warblers, and 57 Bay-breasted Warblers. The abundance of all three species of budworm-linked warblers increased with SBW larval density, but the numerical response of Bay-breasted Warbler was initiated earlier and it varied with age. SY individuals tended to be associated with stands supporting lower larval densities than ASY individuals and, as suggested by other authors, Bay-breasted Warbler appeared to be more efficient at exploiting SBW larvae at low density. For that reason, this species represents an early indicator of stands undergoing SBW outbreaks and we propose to use its abundance as an indicator to orient labour-intensive ground surveys of SBW larvae.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of 20th-Century Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in Eastern Canada: Three Distinct Patterns of Outbreak Severity

Spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks are a major disturbance in North American forests. In Quebec, Canada, the recent history of SBW outbreaks at the local scale is well-known. Studies at the Québec scale nonetheless remain rare despite the need to better understand the dynamics of SBW outbreaks at a larger scale. This study aimed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of SBW outbreaks during the 20th century across the insect's range in southern Quebec. To this end, we sampled 83 stands throughout southern Quebec. These stands were selected according to their age and the presence of black, white, and red spruce. In fact, spruce, unlike balsam fir, survives the SBW outbreaks and can record them in these growth rings. In each stand, cores were taken from 20 spruce trees. The dendrochronological series of more than 1,600 trees were analyzed, and we identified, through the k-means grouping of stands, the spatial patterns of tree growth for the three previously documented 20th century SBW outbreaks. The outbreaks were not homogeneous across the distribution range of the insect. Two groups of stands showed early- (1905–1930) and late-century (1968–1988) outbreaks of high severity and a mid-century (1935–1965) outbreak of moderate severity. This pattern is explained mainly by the presence of the insect within the balsam fir–yellow birch and balsam fir–white birch bioclimatic domains, areas where outbreaks tend to be most severe because of the abundance of balsam fir, the main SBW host species. However, these two models differ in terms of the duration of outbreaks. A third, more northern, cluster of stands experienced lower severity outbreaks over the 20th century, a pattern explained by a lower proportion of balsam fir trees in these landscapes. Our study shows that, on the one hand, these three groups of stands are defined by outbreaks of specific duration (an outbreak period beginning when more than 20% of the trees are affected and ending when <20% of the trees are affected) and severity (in terms of percentage of affected trees), and on the other hand they are spatially distinct and subject to different climatic conditions.

Advancing and reversing succession as a function of time since fire and insect outbreaks: An 18 year in situ remeasurement of changes in forest composition

AbstractAimsIn the boreal mixedwood, fire initiates forest succession; however, over time other disturbances such as insect outbreaks cause pulses of mortality and opportunities for recruitment of shade‐intolerant species.QuestionsWhat are the respective roles of time since fire and insect outbreaks in driving directional, vs cyclical and retrogressive succession? Do assessments from direct measurements and chronosequence approaches converge? We hypothesise that the chronosequence approach will accurately characterise large‐scale compositional patterns especially in younger stands and that direct measurements will better describe small‐scale, non‐directional changes in succession.LocationBoreal mixed wood of northwestern Quebec (79°1′ W, 48°30′ N).MethodsWe sampled 469 plots over an 18‐year interval (in 1991 and 2009) in mixed hardwood/conifer forests to observe in situ the changes in stands having originated from seven fires covering a 249‐year chronosequence.ResultsThe combination of the remeasurement and chronosequence analyses validates predictions of forest succession. Our results indicate that time since last fire is the dominant factor explaining forest succession for the first 150 years after fire and globally at the scale of the entire forest, although smaller‐scale disturbances such as spruce budworm outbreaks can change the course of forest succession, especially at stand scales.ConclusionWhile time since fire is the dominant driver of forest succession in younger forests, secondary disturbances, such as spruce budworm outbreaks, can advance or reverse forest succession in older forests. This study also serves as a validation of the overall patterns described in spatial chronosequence approaches at the landscape level in fire‐dominated systems but highlights that local succession may deviate from the overall pattern especially in older forests or in forests affected by non‐stand re‐initiating intermediate disturbances.

Salvage harvest planning for spruce budworm outbreak using multistage stochastic programming

Forest supply chain planning must deal with many natural disturbance uncertainties such as fires, insects, and windthrow. One important consideration is wood infestation by invasive insects, as it causes environmental and economic harm. An example of invasive insects in Eastern Canada is the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)), which is the most destructive insect in North America’s conifer stands. In 2017, more than 5 million ha of forest were defoliated by spruce budworm in Quebec. Repeated defoliation causes tree mortality, reduction of growth rates, and reduced lumber quality. Consequently, different wood qualities with greatly varied values are found in the forest. Changes in the outbreak intensity impact wood values throughout the forest. One of the common actions to mitigate the economic and environmental damages is salvage harvesting. However, because of the large uncertainties and lack of detailed information, it is a difficult problem to model. We propose a multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming model for harvest scheduling under various outbreak intensities. The objective is to maximize revenues of wood value minus logistic costs while satisfying demand for wood in the industry. The results show that when there is an outbreak throughout the forest, the priority for salvage harvesting is to focus on forest areas with the lowest level of infestation.

A review of natural disturbances to inform implementation of ecological forestry in Nova Scotia, Canada

Like many jurisdictions across North America, the province of Nova Scotia (NS) is faced with the challenge of restoring its forests to a more natural, presettlement state through implementation of ecological forestry. At the core of ecological forestry is the idea that natural forest structures and processes may be approximated by designing management practices that emulate natural disturbances. Successful natural disturbance emulation depends on fundamental knowledge of disturbance characteristics, including identification of specific disturbance agents, their spatial extent, severity, and return interval. To date, no comprehensive synthesis of existing data has been undertaken to document the natural disturbance regime of NS forests, limiting the application of natural disturbance emulation. Using over 300 years of documents and available data, we identified the main natural disturbance agents that affect NS forests and characterized their regimes. Overall, fire, wind (predominantly hurricanes), and outbreaks of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) are the most important disturbance agents, causing substantial areas of low- (<30% mortality), moderate- (30%–60%), and high- (>60%) severity disturbance. While characterization of natural historic fire is challenging, due to past human ignitions and suppression, we estimated that the mean annual disturbance rate of moderate- to high-severity fire ranged between 0.17% and 0.4%·year−1 (return interval of 250–600 years), depending on ecosystem type. Hurricanes make landfall in NS, on average, every 7 years, resulting in wide-scale (>500 ha) forest damage. While hurricane track and damage severity vary widely among storms, the return interval of low- to high-severity damage is 700–1250 years (0.14%–0.08%·year−1). Conversely, the return interval of host-specific spruce budworm outbreaks is much shorter (<50 years) but more periodic, causing wide-scale, low- to high-severity damage to spruce–fir forests every 30–40 years. Further disturbance agents such as other insects (e.g., spruce beetle), diseases, ice storms, drought, and mammals can be locally important and (or) detrimental to individual tree species but contribute little to overall disturbance in NS. Climate change is expected to significantly alter the disturbance regime of NS, affecting current disturbances (e.g., increased fire) and driving the introduction of novel agents (e.g., hemlock wooly adelgid), and continued monitoring is needed to understand these changes.

Stand breakdown and surface fuel accumulation due to spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) defoliation in the boreal mixedwood forest of central Canada

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) defoliation has been shown to increase the likelihood of large forest fires in central Canada. However, the time frame of heightened risk based on the duration of spruce budworm defoliation has not yet been quantified. In this article, we document the extent of stand breakdown and surface fuel accumulation after a period of spruce budworm defoliation that occurred between 1972 and 1976. Data on stand characteristics were derived from previous studies at three different locations in the boreal mixedwood forests of central Canada: Aubinadong (B.J. Stocks. 1987. For. Chron. 63: 8–14), Gogama, and Gowganda in Ontario. Stand breakdown was measured using a series of transects set in plots 7 years following aerially mapped defoliation (1977–1983). Results show that during the 4 years following 5 years of defoliation, crown breakage, a typical symptom of defoliation, increased by nearly 200%, and surface fuel increased by 145% from predisturbance levels. The high correlation between crown breakage and surface fuels linked defoliation to fuel buildup. We begin to solve the challenge of measuring fuel structure over the expansive scale of spruce budworm outbreaks by quantifying the relationship among stand breakdown, time since the end of defoliation, and the duration of defoliation so that the expected fuel structure can be modelled from annual defoliation surveys.

The paradox of defoliation: Declining tree water status with increasing soil water content

Defoliation can enhance tree water status by reducing canopy transpiration under drought. During long-lasting insect outbreaks however, this effect can be transient as reduced foliage affects not only transpiration but also the entire soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. In this study, we investigated the effects of defoliation and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on plant and soil water status in balsam fir and black spruce defoliated by spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens). We sampled 48 fir trees and 36 spruce trees subjected to differing severities of defoliation. In May–September 2014 and 2015, we monitored the relative shoot water content (RWC) and soil volumetric water content (VWC), and midday shoot water potential (Ψmd, only in 2015). We applied linear mixed models (LMMs) to assess changes in RWC, Ψmd, and VWC to defoliation and VPD and we ran structural equation models (SEM) to determine the causal relationships between the measured variables in relation to defoliation and VPD. In LMMs models, defoliation and VPD, as individual factors, reduced Ψmd in both balsam fir and pooled species models but did not affect RWC. Defoliation alone increased VWC in balsam fir and in pooled models. We observed no interaction between VPD and defoliation on tree water status, but significant effect on VWC (in balsam fir and pooled models), indicating that both factors had independent and additive effects on plants but not on soil. However, in SEM models, RWC was negatively correlated to defoliation, suggesting a hydraulic safety margin. Under conditions of multiple-years of natural defoliation during a spruce budworm outbreak, the decrease in Ψmd reflects the amount of internal water capacitance that could be caused by both a lower Ψmd due to larval feeding and a negative feedback between defoliation and xylem vulnerability.

The spruce budworm, a potential threat for Norway spruce in eastern Canada?

Norway spruce, an exotic tree species in North America, was largely used in reforestation programs in the province of Québec between 1972 and 1990. Several of these plantations are now reaching their commercial maturity and the resurgence of spruce budworm outbreak is a reminder that the potential threat of this damaging defoliator for Norway spruce still remains unknown. We used two life-history traits, pupal weight and overwintered larval (L2) weight, to compare spruce budworm biological performance on Norway spruce, white spruce and black spruce. Pupae collected on Norway spruce and overwintered larvae produced by parents that fed on Norway spruce were heavier than those coming from black spruce. Spruce budworm performance was similar on Norway and white spruce, showing similar suitability and suggesting that it can represent a potential threat for Norway spruce plantations established after the last spruce budworm outbreak in eastern North America.

Host Tree Species Affects Spruce Budworm Winter Survival.

With current trends in global warming, it has been suggested that spruce budworm outbreaks may spread to northern parts of the boreal forest. However, the major constraints for a northward expansion are the availability of suitable host trees and the insect winter survival capacity. This study aimed to determine the effect of larval feeding on balsam fir, white spruce and black spruce on various spruce budworm life history traits of both the parental and the progeny generations. Results indicated that the weight of the overwintering larval progeny and their winter survival were influenced by host tree species on which larvae of the parental generation fed. White spruce was the most suitable host for the spruce budworm, producing the heaviest pupae and the heaviest overwintering larvae while black spruce was the least suitable, producing the smallest pupae and the smallest overwintering progeny. Overwintering larvae produced by parents that fed on black spruce also suffered higher winter mortality than individuals coming from parents that fed on balsam fir or white spruce. With current trends in global warming, spruce budworm is expected to expand its range to northern boreal forests where black spruce is the dominant tree species. Such northern range expansion might not result in outbreaks if low offspring winter survival on black spruce persist.

Hardwood-softwood composition influences early-instar larval dispersal mortality during a spruce budworm outbreak

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) has been shown to be less severe in stands with higher hardwood (broadleaved trees) content during both building and declining phases of budworm outbreaks. Reduced defoliation associated with forest composition could be explained by habitat fragmentation and/or natural enemy hypotheses, which posit higher early-instar larval dispersal loss or more intense parasitism in hardwood-softwood mixed stands than in pure balsam fir stands, respectively. We carried out field studies in 27 hardwood, mixedwood, and softwood plots with varied balsam fir-hardwood composition to assess effects of forest composition on: 1) first- and second-instar larval dispersal loss, and 2) stage-specific spruce budworm density and parasitism rates. Results indicated that increasing hardwood content increased second-instar (L2) dispersal losses. Stand type significantly affected dispersal loss of L2 larvae, both measured directly for three years and sampled on balsam fir seedlings. Post-hoc pair-wise comparisons indicated that L2 dispersal loss was less in softwood than in mixedwood or hardwood stand types based on measurements on ground traps and less in softwood and mixedwood than in hardwood stands based on sampling budworm larvae on regeneration. This suggested that high early-instar larval dispersal loss is a plausible explanation for the decreased spruce budworm density and balsam fir defoliation associated with increasing hardwood content. Stand type did not significantly affect parasitism rates.

Forest Carbon Resilience of Eastern Spruce Budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) Salvage Harvesting in the Northeastern United States

The next major eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreak is likely to begin impacting the forests of the northeastern US over the next few years. More than 4.7 million ha of forest and 94.8 million Mg of carbon in spruce (Picea spp.) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea) are at risk. Vegetation shifts in at-risk forest stands are likely to occur as a direct result of mortality caused by spruce budworm and through post-outbreak salvage harvest operations designed to minimize economic impact. Management interventions have short-term and long-term consequences for the terrestrial carbon budget and have significant implications for the role of the region’s forests as a natural climate solution. We used regional forest inventory data and 40-year growth and harvest simulations from the USDA Forest Service Forest Vegetation Simulator to quantify a range of forest carbon outcomes for alternative silvicultural interventions in the northeastern US. We performed a life cycle assessment of harvested wood products, including bioenergy, to evaluate the full greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consequences of salvage and business as usual silvicultural scenarios across a range of stand risk profiles in the presence and absence of spruce budworm attack. Salvaging dead trees in the most at-risk stands tends to produce net emissions of carbon dioxide for at least ten years compared to a baseline where dead trees are left standing. In most scenarios, GHG emissions reached parity with the baseline by year 20. Changes in forest carbon stocks were the biggest driver of net emission differences between salvage and no salvage scenarios. A benchmark scenario without timber harvesting or the occurrence of a spruce budworm outbreak had the greatest net carbon sequestration profile after 40 years compared to all other scenarios. Salvaging trees killed by a severe and widespread insect infestation has potential negative short-term implications for GHG emissions, but long-term resilience of these climate benefits is possible in the absence of future outbreaks or subsequent harvest activities. The results provide guidance on silvicultural interventions to minimize the impact of spruce budworm on forest carbon.