Spring Events Research Articles

The situation of Syrian Christians in the context of the Arab Spring events

The article is based on the information published in foreign and Russian sources and media, as well as on the basis of the authors own research and interviews carried out in Syria. The aim of the work is to study the situation of Syrian Christians after the events of the Arab Spring-2011. This is the scientific novelty of the topic. The article is devoted to the problems that not only touched, but most dramatically affected the life of Christians in Syria, who traditionally presented at least 12% of its population (and much more in the past). They are representatives of the most indigenous religion in the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR). The work also traces the role of Christians in the history and socio-political life of Syria, analyzes their current situation, evaluates the events of recent years and draws appropriate conclusions. In particular, the author believes that the Arab Spring led not only to huge human and economic losses, but also to serious ethno-confessional structural changes in the society of the SAR. With the possible disappearance of this native part of the Syrian population, who lived here and represented almost all the inhabitants of that region before the Islam, the republic may lose not only 12 percent of the most educated and active part of its population, but also its tourist attractiveness in the eyes of the whole world. Although Syria has always been considered the cradle of Christianity it could lose its reputation as one of the most tolerant countries of the Arab world.

Northeast China Cold Vortex Observed by FY‐3 MWTS‐2 and MetOp AMSU‐A

AbstractThe northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) refers to a closed low‐pressure system over northeast China extending from China‐Siberia to the northwest Pacific coast region. It is cut off from the westerly jet belt in the middle and upper troposphere, has a cold core, lasts several days, and could bring heavy rain events in late spring and summer that are of great challenge to weather forecasters. This study investigates the possibility of observing temperature structures of NCCVs by two microwave temperature sounders, that is, the Microwave Temperature Sounder‐2 (MWTS‐2) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A (AMSU‐A) onboard the two polar‐orbiting operational environmental satellites (POES) Fenyun‐3 satellite FY‐3D and Meteorological Operational satellite MetOp‐B, respectively. The MWTS‐2 and AMSU‐A together provide 3D atmospheric temperatures in the middle and upper troposphere, as well as the lower stratosphere four times daily. Both limb‐corrected direct observations of brightness temperature and retrievals of atmospheric temperature within NCCVs are characterized by cold and warm cores below and above the tropopause, respectively, comparing favorably with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis. Compared with the ERA5 reanalysis in June 2019, the MWTS‐2 retrieved atmospheric temperatures have no scan‐dependent biases, the biases are smaller than ±0.2K, and root‐mean‐square errors (RMSEs) are smaller than and 2.0K at all altitudes. This study suggests the possibility of using multiple POES microwave‐temperature‐sounding observations for near‐real‐time monitoring of NCCVs' 3D temperature structures.

Effects of chilling on heat requirement of spring phenology vary between years

The controlled experiments are increasingly used to examine the effect of chilling on the spring phenology of temperate woody plants. Previous studies demonstrated a delaying effect of lack of chilling on spring events due to a negative relationship between chilling accumulation (CA) and heat requirement (HR). However, most experiments only lasted for one year, and limited studies examined the consistency of the CA-HR relationship between years. Here, we conducted a twig experiment with 14 temperate woody species in two winter seasons (2018/2019 and 2019/2020) to assess the between-year difference in the impact of chilling on HR of flowering or leaf-out. The CA and HR for each species in each year were estimated based on the common-used chilling and forcing model. The results showed that 8 of 14 species exhibited a significantly different slope or intercept of the linear function of HR against CA between two winter seasons. Using the first-year CA-HR function to simulate the second-year spring events would result in large uncertainties with root-mean-square errors ranging from 1.3 to 9.9 days. In addition to the original chilling model, we further selected an optimal one for each species from another 8 chilling models. The optimal chilling models varied among species and could reduce the RMSE of phenological simulation of 10 species by 0.1–3.7 days. Our results suggest that using one-year experimental data to develop the phenological model or estimate the chilling and heat requirement of spring events is unsuitable. Further studies are still needed to better quantify the rate of chilling under different temperature conditions for various species.

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

AbstractThe impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.

Mineralogical, geochemical, and textural characteristics of soil and airborne samples during dust storms in Khuzestan, southwest Iran

Dust storms are frequent phenomena in Khuzestan Province, southwest Iran, leading to environmental hazards and deleterious impacts on human health. This work analyzes mineralogic and geochemical characteristics of dust sediments at the source regions and in deposition areas in southwest Iran during three dust-storm events in winter and spring 2018. Twenty soil and airborne dust samples were collected and analyzed for compositions of dust at different distances from the source regions in Iraq and southwest Iran, aiming to assess the source characterization and possible mixing processes in the atmosphere. The grain size distributions were also analyzed at specific sites. The results show that about 50 % of the volume size distribution corresponds to particle sizes of above 20 μm, indicating local/regional dust storms of coarse to giant particles. XRD analysis indicates that calcite is the dominant mineral in all the samples, with a high quartz and dolomite fraction. The most abundant major compounds are SiO2 and CaO, while Cl, Ba, Sr, Pb, Ni, Zn, Cr, V are the main trace elements. The enrichment factor (EF) analysis showed that apart from Th, Nb, Ce, and V, all the other elements (Pb, Zn, Cr, etc.) have an anthropogenic origin or represent high amounts of pollutant contamination. High levels of elemental enrichment are attributable to intensive pollution in Khuzestan Province and at sampling sites due to fossil-fuel combustion, gas and petroleum drilling activities. Moreover, based on the geo-accumulation index (Igeo), all samples are found to be contaminated by heavy metals due to prior war-related materiel, oil and gas extraction, and emissions from polluting industries.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Spring Indices in China and Their Physical Mechanisms

AbstractSpring indices refer to the onset date of Spring, which quantify the phenological events in Spring. The average spring index (Avg‐SI) is defined as the average of the first leaf index (the date of early spring) and the first bloom index (the date of late spring) in this study. This study calculated the Avg‐SI in China for 2,780 weather stations during 1951–2014. The long‐term mean Avg‐SI suggested that the spring onset gradually delayed with the increase of latitudes and altitudes. The long‐term trend indicated earlier onset of spring in nearly all sub‐regions in China. The spatiotemporal variations of Avg‐SI were analyzed using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) method. The first EOF mode suggested a homogenous pattern across China. This mode is closely linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts the atmospheric circulation and temperature across Eurasia. Warm phase of AMO is associated with positive geopotential height (HGT) anomalies and warmer spring in China. The second EOF mode suggested a north‐south zonal pattern, which is linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Asian Trough Strength. Positive phases of AO lead to positive HGT anomalies over the northern China but negative HGT anomalies over the southern China. Together they lead to a weaker East Asian Trough and less cold air intrusions to the northern China, which in turn cause earlier onset of spring in this region.

Time-dependent 3D simulations of tropospheric ozone depletion events in the Arctic spring using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem)

Abstract. Tropospheric bromine release and ozone depletion events (ODEs) as they commonly occur in the Arctic spring are studied using a regional model based on the open-source software package Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). For this purpose, the MOZART (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers)–MOSAIC (Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry) chemical reaction mechanism is extended by bromine and chlorine reactions as well as an emission mechanism for reactive bromine via heterogeneous reactions on snow surfaces. The simulation domain covers an area of 5040 km×4960 km, centered north of Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, and the time interval from February through May 2009. Several simulations for different strengths of the bromine emission are conducted and evaluated by comparison with in situ and ozone sonde measurements of ozone mixing ratios as well as by comparison with tropospheric BrO vertical column densities (VCDs) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) satellite instrument. The base bromine emission scheme includes the direct emission of bromine due to bromide oxidation by ozone. Results of simulations with the base emission rate agree well with the observations; however, a simulation with 50 % faster emissions performs somewhat better. The bromine emission due to bromide oxidation by ozone is found to be important to provide an initial seed for the bromine explosion. Bromine release due to N2O5 was found to be important from February to mid March but irrelevant thereafter. A comparison of modeled BrO with in situ and multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) data hints at missing bromine release and recycling mechanisms on land or near coasts. A consideration of halogen chemistry substantially improves the prediction of the ozone mixing ratio with respect to the observations. Meteorological nudging is essential for a good prediction of ODEs over the 3-month period.

Colloidal catchment response to snowmelt and precipitation events differs in a forested headwater catchment

AbstractClimate change affects the occurrence of high‐discharge (HD) events and associated nutrient exports in catchment stream water. Information on colloidal events‐based losses of important nutrients, such as organic C(Corg), N, P, and S, remain relatively scarce. We hypothesized that contributions of colloidal exported N, S, and P due to differing hydrological mechanisms vary between HD events in late winter and spring. We examined one combined snowmelt and rainfall event (March 2018) with one rainfall event (May 2018) for temporal Corg, N, P, and S dynamics. The catchment exports of colloids and their subset nanoparticles were analyzed by asymmetric‐flow field flow fractionation (P) and a filtration cascade (N and S). The Corg source in both events was assessed by δ13C composition of the stream water in relation to that of the soil. In winter, <6% of stream water P was transported by colloids (>0.1 μm), but this was 29–64% in spring and was associated with Corg, Fe, and Al. Colloidal N and particulate S (>1 μm) were higher during both events, but the majority of losses were dissolved (<0.1 μm). The δ13C values of dissolved organic matter (13CDOM) showed that in winter, most Corg was exported from the hydrologically connected hillslopes by water flowing through mineral horizons, due to snowmelt. During and after the rainfall events, export from organic horizons dominated the nutrient losses as particulates, including colloids. These events highlight the need for a better quantification of often underreported particulate, colloid, and nanoparticle contributions to weather‐driven nutrient losses from catchments.

Footprints of Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the interdecadal variation of Consecutive Cloudy–Rainy Events in Southern China

Consecutive Cloudy-Rainy Events (CCREs) in spring have a disastrous impact on agriculture and the natural ecosystem over southern China. In this study, the variability of the frequency of spring CCREs in southern China from 1961 to 2016 and the underlying mechanism of these phenomena are explored. The results indicate that the dominant mode of the CCRE frequency in southern China varies in a uniform spatial pattern, and the time series exhibits a strong interdecadal variation, with a higher frequency between the late 1970s and late 1990s and a lower frequency in the other periods. Such an interdecadal variation in the CCRE frequency varies well in–phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Further dynamic diagnosis and numerical simulation both suggest that the PDO is linked with CCREs in southern China through two physical processes. On the one hand, the anomalous PDO is associated with the anomalous North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). The westward extension of the NPO is accompanied by anomalous East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) and West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). On the other hand, the eastward development process associated with the PDO variation can excite a Rossby wave train over the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes. The PDO-related Rossby wave train can alter East Asian atmospheric circulations, leading to anomalous EAWJ. The changes in the EAWJ and WPSH can further lead to anomalous upward motion over southern China and moisture transportation from the South China Sea to southern China. Through these physical processes, the positive–phase (negative–phase) PDO provides a favorable (unfavorable) condition for the occurrence of CCREs in southern China.

Trends and spatial variation in rain-on-snow events over the Arctic Ocean during the early melt season

Abstract. Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can accelerate the surface ablation of sea ice, thus greatly influencing the ice–albedo feedback. However, the variability of ROS events over the Arctic Ocean is poorly understood due to limited historical station data in this region. In this study early melt season ROS events were investigated based on four widely used reanalysis products (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA, and ERA5) in conjunction with available observations at Arctic coastal stations. The performance of the reanalysis products in representing the timing of ROS events and the phase change of precipitation was assessed. Our results show that ERA-Interim better represents the onset date of ROS events in spring, and ERA5 better represents the phase change of precipitation associated with ROS events. All reanalyses indicate that ROS event timing has shifted to earlier dates in recent decades (with maximum trends up to −4 to −6 d per decade in some regions in ERA-Interim) and that sea ice melt onset in the Pacific sector and most of the Eurasian marginal seas is correlated with this shift. There has been a clear transition from solid to liquid precipitation, leading to more ROS events in spring, although large discrepancies were found between different reanalysis products. In ERA5, the shift from solid to liquid precipitation phase during the early melt season has directly contributed to a reduction in spring snow depth on sea ice by more than −0.5 cm per decade averaged over the Arctic Ocean since 1980, with the largest contribution (about −2.0 cm per decade) in the Kara–Barents seas and Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

News Article

Many spring conferences and academic events go to virtual (January 21, 2021) Nearly one year ago, due to rapid spread of the COVID-19 disease, almost all academic conferences to be held in spring term were cancelled, except the April Meeting of the American Physical Society (APS), which only chose virtual format, almost for the first time as a fairly large scale meeting. This year, fortunately, many conferences will not be cancelled. In the USA, both the American Chemical Society (ACS) and the Materials Research Society (MRS) will have virtual meetings for the spring 2021. Almost the same trends happened in other countries as well. In Japan, the Japan Applied Physics Society (JASP), the Physical Society of Japan, the Chemical Society of Japan (CSJ), the Japan Society for Analytical Chemistry (JSAC), the Japan Institute of Metals and Materials (JIM), the Japanese Society for Synchrotron Radiation Research (JSSRR), and many other societies chose the online meeting for the spring events. On the other hand, conventional face-to-face style must be still attractive to get further intellectual stimulus and deeper understanding of the latest hot topics. Let’s see what happens in the late 2021.

Influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation on extreme rainfall events in Spring in southern Uruguay

AbstractThe influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the dynamics of extreme rainfall events during austral Spring in Uruguay is investigated. The research is focused on the southern region of the country, which includes 15 weather stations. Extreme events are defined as days in which accumulated rainfall exceeds the 90 percentile of rainy days, and MJO is classified according to the Real‐time Multivariate MJO series 1 (RMM1) and 2 (RMM2) indices. Given that the extratropical teleconnections associated with MJO take at least 1 week to set up, we explore the influence of MJO up to 11 days prior to extreme events. A nonlinear time series analysis is performed (using symbolic patterns known as ordinal patterns) in order to consider the effects of the persistence of particular phases of MJO on the dynamic of extreme rainfall events. We find that MJO has the highest influence on extreme rainfall events in the region when it shows a persistence in phases 4 and 5 for more than 5 days, which intensifies the polar jet, influencing the trajectories of the transient waves that propagate in high latitudes, favouring geopotential disturbances over Uruguay. In other cases, the atmospheric pattern that leads to extreme rainfall events is characterized by a blocking episode that prevents transient activity from high latitudes to reach Uruguay, and the disturbances associated with the extreme events propagate along the subtropics.

Exploring atmospheric circulation leading to three anomalous Australian spring heat events

Australian maximum temperatures have reached record values in recent austral springs and are projected to increase further in a warming world. We focus on three record spring heat events in September 2013, October–November 2014 and October 2015, and examine the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with these events in reanalysis and a sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction system, POAMA, to identify factors contributing to extreme heat over Australia. We find that an anomalous equivalent barotropic cyclonic circulation southwest of Australia and a quasi-stationary wave train formed by an upper-troposphere anticyclonic circulation over southern Australia and barotropic cyclone southeast of Australia are important features in these heat events, though the wave train was only observed in the latter two events. This wave train appears to be linked to the tropics, and particularly the tropical Indian Ocean, suggesting that teleconnections to the tropical Indian Ocean can be important for monthly spring extreme heat formation in Australia. However, the forecast relationship with the tropical Pacific Ocean was over-represented at the cost of the relationship between the Indian Ocean and upper-troposphere anomaly, limiting the ability of POAMA to forecast the full extent of the month- or 2 month-long heat extremes at zero lead time. This means that the model might underestimate the magnitude of future extreme heat events in spring, a factor that should be assessed in the next generation of seasonal forecast models.

The timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migrants: a comparison between Ottenby, Sweden and Capri, Italy

Some migratory birds have advanced their spring arrival to Northern Europe, possibly by increasing the speed of migration through Europe in response to increased temperature en route. In this paper we compare the phenology of spring arrival of seven trans-Saharan migrants along their migration route and test for patterns indicating that migration speed varied over the season using long-term data collected on the Italian island of Capri and at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden. There was a linear relationship between median arrival dates on Capri and at Ottenby. The slope was not significantly different from one. On average, the seven species arrived 15 days later at Ottenby compared to Capri. There was a (non-significant) negative relationship between the species-specific arrival dates at Capri and the differences in median arrival dates between Capri and Ottenby, possibly indicating a tendency towards faster migration through Europe later in the season. To what extent different species are able to speed up their migration to benefit from the advancement of spring events is unknown.

Employing the Critical juncture hypothesis to explain the 2011 Egyptian revolution

Our research question involves applying the critical juncture hypothesis formulated by Daron Acemoglu and his co-authors in the series of the articles and books to the context of the 2011 Arab Spring events. Critical juncture hypothesis states that politics and political institutions determine what economic institutions a country has, because the former represents the distribution of political power. Whoever controls political institutions then can set up economic institutions, determining the rules governing economic activities and who will benefit from them. Generated resources are then used in defending these sets of institutions. Though for Acemoglu and his co-authors politics always precedes economics, it is the interplay of political and economic institutions that explain contemporary development of states. The case of 2011 Egyptian Revolution is presented, as the well-documented illustraion of the hypothesis at work.

Mosses reduce soil nitrogen availability in a subarctic birch forest via effects on soil thermal regime and sequestration of deposited nitrogen.

In high‐latitude ecosystems bryophytes are important drivers of ecosystem functions. Alterations in abundance of mosses due to global change may thus strongly influence carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling and hence cause feedback on climate. The effects of mosses on soil microbial activity are, however, still poorly understood. Our study aims at elucidating how and by which mechanisms bryophytes influence microbial decomposition processes of soil organic matter and thus soil nutrient availability.We present results from a field experiment in a subarctic birch forest in northern Sweden, where we partly removed the moss cover and replaced it with an artificial soil cover for simulating moss effects on soil temperature and moisture. We combined this with a fertilization experiment with 15N‐labelled N for analysing the effects of moss N sequestration on soil processes.Our results demonstrate the capacity of mosses to reduce soil N availability and retard N cycling. The comparison with artificial soil cover plots suggests that the effect of mosses on N cycling is linked to the thermal insulation capacity of mosses causing low average soil temperature in summer and strongly reduced soil temperature fluctuations, the latter also leading to a decreased frequency of freeze‐thaw events in autumn and spring. Our results also showed, however, that the negative temperature effect of mosses on soil microbial activity was in part compensated by stimulatory effects of the moss layer, possibly linked to leaching of labile substrates from the moss. Furthermore, our results revealed that bryophytes efficiently sequester added N from wet deposition and thus prevent effects of increased atmospheric N deposition on soil N availability and soil processes. Synthesis. Our study emphasizes the important role of mosses in carbon and nutrient cycling in high‐latitude ecosystems and the potential strong impacts of reductions in moss abundance on microbial decomposition processes and nutrient availability in subarctic and boreal forests.

A synoptic view on intra-annual density fluctuations in Abies alba

Tree growth, as an archive of environmental conditions, has proven to provide valuable proxies for climate reconstructions. Density measurements were successfully used in the field of dendroclimatology in the past, with recent efforts to obtain sub-annual predictors from density profiles. Particular attention is laid on anomalies in the density profile named intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs). Density fluctuations in earlywood with higher than ordinary density are assumed to be triggered by drought events in spring or early summer. How they are formed, linked to chemical and anatomical characteristics and their functionality is not well understood, although necessary to interpret growth-climate relationships of this trait. An explorative assessment of radial profiles from silver fir, showing an IADF in earlywood of 2005, included cell wall and lumen area, cellulose to lignin ratio, microfibril angle, tracheid length as well as size and shape of pits, beside density. The resulting synoptic view of these traits depicted deviations at the IADF position, indicating that multiple phases of wood formation are affected by a triggering event. These anatomical and chemical adaptions result in a hydraulically safer tissue with improved mechanical strength. The presented approach provides first insights on multiple involved wood traits and leads towards a more comprehensive understanding of IADF formation.

Particulate Matter and Temperature: Increased Risk of Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) and temperature are associated with an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) taking vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Patients and MethodsWe included patients with AF whose condition was stable while taking VKAs (international normalized ratio, 2.0 to 3.0) for 6 months seen in a tertiary hospital (recruitment from May 1, 2007, to December 1, 2007). During a median follow-up of 6.5 years (interquartile range, 4.3 to 7.9 years), ischemic strokes, major bleeding, adverse cardiovascular events, and mortality were recorded. From 2007 to 2016, data on average temperature and PM10 were compared with clinical outcomes. ResultsThe study group included 1361 patients (663 [48.7%] male; median age, 76 years [interquartile range, 71 to 81 years]). High PM10 and low temperatures were associated with higher risk of major bleeding (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.70 and aHR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.05, respectively) and mortality (aHR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.69 and aHR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.06, respectively); PM10 was also associated with ischemic stroke and temperature with cardiovascular events. The relative risk (RR) for cardiovascular events and mortality increased in months in the lower quartile of temperature (RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.21 and RR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.74, respectively). Comparing seasons, there were higher risks of cardiovascular events in spring, autumn, and winter than in summer, whereas the risk of mortality increased only in winter. ConclusionIn patients with AF taking VKAs, high PM10 and low temperature were associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke and cardiovascular events, respectively. Both factors increased major bleeding and mortality risks, which were higher during colder months and seasons.

Relationship of particular matter and temperature on the risk of adverse events in atrial fibrillation patients

Abstract Background Ambient particulate matter (PM), is a principal component of air pollutant and the main culprit of the adverse effects of air pollution on humans' health. In particular, PM with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10) has been shown to be associated with worse clinical outcomes. Similarly, cardiovascular risk increases during colder temperatures/seasons. Thus, both, air pollution and temperature fluctuations are examples confirming how the climate change is affecting our health. However, our knowledge about the impact of air pollution and temperature in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients is scarce. Purpose Herein, we investigated if PM10 and temperature are associated with an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with AF taking vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Methods We included AF patients who were stable on VKAs (INR 2.0–3.0) for 6 months in a tertiary hospital (Murcia, South-east Spain). During a median follow-up of 6.5 (IQR 4.3–7.9) years, ischemic strokes, major bleeds, adverse cardiovascular events, and mortality were recorded. From 2007–2016, data on average temperature and PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) were obtained and related to clinical outcomes. Results 1361 patients (48.7% male; median age 76, IQR 71–81 years) were included. High PM10 and low temperatures were associated with higher risk of major bleeding (adjusted Hazard Ratio, aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.22–1.70 and aHR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) and mortality (aHR 1.50, 95% CI 1.34–1.69 and aHR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06) (Table 1). PM10 was also significantly associated with ischemic stroke and temperature with cardiovascular events. The relative risk for cardiovascular events and mortality increased in months in the lower quartile (Q1) of temperature (<12.74°C) (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04–1.21 and RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15–1.74; respectively). Comparing seasons, there were higher risks of cardiovascular events in spring, autumn, and winter than in summer, whereas the risk of mortality increased only in winter. Conclusions In AF patients taking VKAs highPM10 and low temperature were associated with an increased the risk of ischemic stroke and cardiovascular events, respectively. Both factors increased major bleeding and mortality risks, which were higher during colder months and seasons. Table 1. Univariate and Multivariate Cox Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Factors Influencing China’s Oil Diplomacy in the Middle East

Even though China extracts oil more than any other country in the Asia-Pacific region, the country is still hugely dependent on imports, and this dependence increases with each passing year. In recent years, the need for import of oil in China had risen from 35% in 2000 to 70% in 2017. Today, the People’s Republic of China mainly buys crude oil in the Middle East and political change in the region directly influence on Chinese foreign policy. In this study, we examined four critical factors that influence china’s oil diplomacy in the Middle East. Accordingly, Arab spring events, OPEC, China foreign policies and strategies, and influence of the U.S. in the region have direct or indirect effects on china’s oil diplomacy. China’s historical reaction to these factors is remarkable and made its energy security strategies in the Middle east. This study shows that the events of the Arab Spring hurt China’s oil diplomacy with the middle East countries. The developments taking place in the Middle East from the beginning of the Arab Spring have led to an increase in world oil prices. For China, this meant higher import bills and a reduction in the trade surplus, as well as slower economic growth, as the contribution of net exports decreased. OPEC market controlling strategies let China thinks to other oil producers, and oil exports from the Middle East reduced in front of increasing imports from other regions. U.S. as hegemon of the area somehow made steady pressure on China alliance, especially after making sanctions on Iran due to its nuclear programs. During the trade war between the two countries, the influence of the U.S. on China oil diplomacy more appeared.