Spot Rate Research Articles

Spring Festival Holiday Tourism Data Mining Based on the Deep Learning Model

With the advent of the era of big data, people have entered a situation of information overload, how do users filter out the information they need from a large amount of information. When users browse the website, they will record their search or click behavior, and the recommendation system will mine the data based on these data, and recommend the information they need for each user. With the birth of the recommender system, it has indeed changed the way people obtain information. Instead of relying solely on search engines to obtain information, it can obtain the information they want without people’s “consciousness.” This shift has made it easier for people to access information. This paper conducts research on travel recommendation during the Spring Festival holiday. The paper introduces deep learning model and data mining technology, proposes that the recommendation system has three important modules, and obtains the corresponding flowchart. The recommendation system was optimized, and a comparison chart of coverage before and after optimization was obtained. Before optimization, the coverage rate of cities and scenic spots was 45.52% and 21.25%, respectively, and reached 55.65% and 49.81% after optimization.

Erosion hot spots of drain valve under higher particle flow rates

Drain valves mounted onto the blow-off pipelines of natural gas gathering plants are often used to discharge deposited particles in separators. Particle flows (greater than 0.01 kg/s) always lead to inner and even outer leakage owing to erosion hot spots in the valve body and valve core. In this study, various approaches, including online particle monitoring experiments, ultrasonic wall thickness measurements, and flow control methods were used to investigate valve erosion hot spots in field experiments. Numerical simulations with a large-scale moving grid method were conducted to demonstrate the dynamic erosion in a compressible gas flow. The results reveal that the erosion hot spots continuously shifted to nearby areas during the surface evolution. The local erosion rate of the original erosion hot spots always exhibited a decreasing trend, while the erosion rates of the nearby hot zones exhibited an increasing–decreasing trend. The erosion rate of the erosion-deformed zones that suffered delayed particle impacts always exhibited an increasing trend. When the pressure increased from 0.5 MPa to 3.5 MPa, the erosion hot spots shifted to Point_B 3. The velocity contour considering the gas compressibility was also determined for this process, and the gas velocity spraying to the facing wall was successfully created. The Oka erosion model was combined with the moving grid method and validated as the most appropriate method for predicting erosion hot spots. As time evolved, the operational flow rate of a 10% valve opening at 46,080 s was equal to the flow rate of a 40% opening at 0 s. On the basis of this relationship, the entire failure process of the valve was accurately obtained using a semi-empirical method. Finally, two novel valve structures are proposed to create a strong erosion–absorbing effect and thereby weaken the erosion hot spot of the valve.

A Study on Spot and Future Rate in Currencies

A Study on Spot and Future Rate in Currencies

TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PROBLEM AREA RANTAU BERANGIN- UJUNG BATU ROKAN HULU DISTRICT, RIAU PROVINCE

A traffic accident is an event that occurs in a traffic flow due to an error in the traffic shaping system that involves humans as drivers, vehicles, roads, and the surrounding environment. In this study, the road that was studied was Rantau Berangin - Ujung Batu which was a class III collector road with a length of ± 66.5 km. This study aims to determine the level of traffic accidents in the area to obtain the Accident Rate value on the Black Spot and Black site . The method in this research is a qualitative method to get the value of the Black Spot and Black Site based on the accident rate. The data used are primary and secondary data obtained from the Kampar Police from 2014 - 2018, as well as those related to traffic accidents. The results of analysis of the received data show that the rate of traffic accidents on roads Rantau Berangin - Ujung Batu is relatively high with 24 scenes of the accident, which roads rantau Berangin - Silam be the point most vulnerable areas of traffic accidents with Accident Rate of the Black Spot by 9,767 and the Accident Rate of the Black Site is 1,205. Meanwhile, the factors that cause traffic accidents on the Rantau Berangin - Ujung Batu road section are dominated by human factors themselves, such as driving at high speed in crowds and using other drivers' lanes.

The information in global interest rate futures contracts

AbstractWe investigate information contained in the term structure of interest rate futures contracts in the United States, Eurozone, UK, and Switzerland. We find that current forward‐spot differentials often predict return premiums and, especially, future spot rates. This predictability follows time‐series patterns common to all four markets, except around crises. Macroeconomic indicators are important determinants of predictability within and between markets. One common factor captures a significant portion of variation in predictability. No single market has a dominant share of macroeconomic indicators linked with the common predictability factor. Inflation and exchange rates arise as the most important determinants of the common factor.

The influence of persistent bleeding after supracervical hysterectomy on depressive and anxious symptoms: a prospective bicenter study.

Postoperative spotting is a frequent adverse symptom after laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy (LSH). The conical excision (eLSH) reduces the postoperative spotting rate, but data in a larger collective are still rare and inconsistent. The influence of persistent bleeding on the anxious and depressive symptoms has not been analyzed yet. 311 patients, who underwent a laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy with conical excision (n = 163), or with straight cervical resection (n = 148) were included. Anxious and depressive symptoms and postoperative spotting were recorded before operation, at 3 month follow-up and at 1 year follow-up in both operative groups using a validated questionnaire (German version of Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HADS-D) and additional questions concerning the frequency and impact of bleeding. Statistical analysis included the impairment of bleeding as well as its impact on depressive and anxious symptoms for both groups. 11.5% after eLSH and 15.5% after LSH reported spotting after 1 year. Supracervical hysterectomy significantly improves depressive and anxious symptoms at 3 and at 12 month follow-up for both groups (p < 0.001) independent on residual spotting. Patients with a preoperative continuous bleeding showed a maximum benefit independent on operative method. Laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy has a positive effect on anxious and depressive symptoms in the short-term and intermediate-term follow-up. The conical excision of the cervical stump reduces postoperative spotting rate, but has no explicit advantage on symptoms of depression or anxiety, irrespective of residual postoperative spotting.

Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: The J-Curve

Abstract The objective of this paper is to test empirically the effect of a devaluation of a currency on the trade account of the country, the J-curve effect, by using the trade between the U.S. and six countries (Euro-zone, Canada, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and Australia). A devaluation (depreciation) of the U.S. dollar is increasing the spot exchange rate ($/FC) and increases the price of imports and reduces the price of exports. Then, imports are falling and exports are increasing and the trade account is improved in the long-run. In the short-run, the trade account is deteriorated because imports are pre-arranged and continue to increase with the higher spot rate. This J-curve hypothesis is tested by using a regression and a VAR model, where the volatility of the real exchange rate (TOT) is specified with a GARCH-M process. The empirical results mostly are supporting the J-curve effect. JEL classification numbers: E4, F31, F32, F47, G14, G15. Keywords: Demand for Money and Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange, Current Account Adjustment, Forecasting and Simulation, Information and Market Efficiency, International Financial Markets.

Investigation of Mud Related Wellbore Problems in Drilling Well-A in the Niger Delta Region

Wellbore instabilities due to mud related issues during well construction in the wetland Niger Delta region were analyzed, reviewing well A as a case study. Time distribution plots and activity break down summary were evaluated for the candidate well. From the analyses, drill bit and bottom hole assembly balling, largely due to soft sticky and reactive gumbo shale with high swelling and dispersive tendencies in the mud system, severe down hole losses, hole pack off, pipe stuck potentials and kicks are some likely mud related challenges often encountered drilling in the Niger Delta region. Consequent upon which there would be reduced rate of penetration, tight spot, increased torque and drag, as seen in well-A. The drilling fluids play pivotal roles in oil extraction processes as their type; design and formulation determine the ultimate success of the entire drilling operation and overall production performance of the well. A poorly designed mud system may trigger wellbore instability that could lead to non-productive time, loss of drilling equipment, even loss of the entire well, kick and blowout scenarios due to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Formation damage may occur, which ultimately leads to reduction in permeability and poor well performance,

The influence of conventional and extended supracervical hysterectomy on sexuality and quality of life parameters: a prospective bi-center study with a special focus on postoperative spotting.

Supracervical as well as total hysterectomy are considered to improve postoperative sexuality as well as quality of life, but the benefit of supracervical hysterectomy (LSH) is impaired in up to 20 percent by postoperative spotting. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of a conical excision of the cervical stump during supracervical hysterectomy on the postoperative spotting rate and its influence on sexuality and in turn quality of life. 321 Patients who underwent a laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy with conical excision (extended laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy, eLSH, n = 166, Dormagen hospital) or with straight cervical resection (laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy, LSH, n = 133, MIC Clinics Berlin) were included. Sexual matters, quality of life parameters and additional questions were recorded before operation, at three months of follow up, and at one year of follow up in both groups using a validated questionnaire (German version of International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire Vaginal Symptoms Module, ICIQ_VS). Statistical analysis included the impact and impairment of bleeding on sexuality, quality of life in both groups and co-factors such as vaginal symptoms. 11.3% after eLSH and 15.5% after LSH reported spotting after 1 year. Supracervical hysterectomy significantly improves quality of life and sexuality and a conical excision of the remaining stump is associated with a lower but insignificantly reduced spotting rates. Postoperative spotting has no negative influence on sexual matter score of ICIQ_VS, but reduces the postoperative quality of life focusing on vaginal symptoms in a significant way. The improvement of ICIQ_VS scores after supracervical hysterectomy is independent of postoperative spotting, but the quality-of-life score is positively influenced by a reduction in the postoperative spotting rate.

Pricing the Excess Volatility in Foreign Exchange Risk Premium and Forward Rate Bias

ABSTRACT We present the pricing of the documented excess volatility of the foreign exchange risk premium, relative to the interest rate differential. By specifying a term structure of interest rate model, the physical probability measure along with the pricing kernels or discount factors are used to derive a system for the expected future spot rate and the forward rate. The theoretical loads are found by solving the Riccati ordinary differential equations, and dynamic factors are captured to set up the global factors for both currencies. It shows that we prove the interest-rate surfaces are almost identical to the empirical ones, and the theoretical interest rates are guaranteed to be positive.

Price Discovery of Currency Futures at NSE

The current study aimed to examine the causal relationship between the NSE currency future rates and currency spot rates in order to identify the price discovery mechanism at NSE market and its integration with foreign exchange market (spot market). To study the causal relationship between the said markets, we have considered daily closing rates for NSE currency futures and currency spot rates for selected pairs of currencies, i.e. USD/INR, GBP/INR, JPY/INR and EURO/INR. The data was obtained from www.nseindia.com and www.investing.com for the period from Jan-2010 to Sep-2017, which makes approximately 1750 observations for each currency pair in each market. It is found that the spot rate for JPY/INR leads the future rate. It is also identified that the spot rate for USD/INR does not cause the changes in futures. It indicates that the market integration between spot and futures at NSE for currency pair USD/INR is strong compared to other selected currency pairs. From the variance decomposition test we found that there is almost no impact of variance in USD/INR spot rate on future rate variance forecast errors. It implies that the causal relationship between for USD/INR spot and future rates is strong and mature compared to the measured causal relationships for the remaining currency pairs. This study concludes that the price discovery process for currency pair USD/INR is better at NSE currency futures among the selected currency pairs.

Home Bias of Korean Resident Bond Investors: The Role of FX Hedging

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the home bias of Korean resident bond investors, as their overseas bond investments have rapidly increased after 2000. For this purpose, we introduce the Won/invested currency swap basis (interest rate differential adjusted FX swap return) and the Won/invested currency uncovered basis (interest rate differential adjusted expected FX spot return) along with the interest rate gap based on CIP and UCIP respectively in order to address the return factors in detail. The model coefficients are estimated by the static pooled OLS and the dynamic system GMM over the period of 2002–2018 and 2009–2018 respectively. With these estimation results, we have obtained the following implications. First, it is expected that the level of home bias will decline as Korean resident overseas bond investments increase, as the factors that have traditionally caused home bias continue to mitigate. Second, when Korean residents invest in overseas bond markets, the FX risk has partially hedged at the country level. This suggests that the rapid in/out flows for overseas bond transactions make a significant impact on the FX swap rates as well as spot rates. Third, both groups of investors have taken into heavy consideration both the FX swap basis (or the FX uncovered basis) related to the invested currency/USD as well as to Won/USD. Our findings suggest that the policy makers need to reconsider their conventional monitoring methods which are focused on the Won/USD transactions.

Container freight rate level forecasting with machine learning methods

In an ocean container transportation market, the fluctuation of spot rate is volatile, making it difficult for market players to optimise freight related operations. This paper applies an multivariant approach to first identify the significant factors affecting rate development and then utilises machine learning methods to handle the complex multivariant nonlinearities, attempting to achieve an balance between forecasting accuracy and economic factor interpretation. In the Far East-Europe trade case study, it is found that four key factors, demand, the fitting value of ARIMA model, utilisation rate and containership fleet growth, affect the rate significantly; and among the tested machine learning methods, random forest outperforms the other. Comparing with the best univarite model (ARIMA), the obtained multivariant model performs equally well, indicating that despite of the complex nonlinearities between the variables in container freight, multivariant modelling in combination with machine learning methods has the potential for reliable prediction.

Expectations, disagreement and exchange rate pressure

This paper provides a novel look on the relationship between survey-based exchange rate expectations and exchange market pressure. Using monthly data for twelve emerging countries from 2003 until 2020, we show that exchange market pressure often increases disagreement among exchange rate forecasters, especially for currencies with high trading volume. This offers an explanation for increasing volatility in the spot rate through expectations after a surge in exchange market pressure. We also find that forecasters take exchange rate overshooting patterns into account. Periods of exchange rate pressure are succeeded by the belief that the domestic currency appreciates against the US dollar.

Impact of Computer-Assisted System on the Learning Curve and Quality in Esophagogastroduodenoscopy: Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background and Aims: To investigate the impact of the computer-assisted system on esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) training for novice trainees in a prospective randomized controlled trial.Methods: We have constructed a computer-aided system (CAD) using retrospective images based on deep learning which could automatically monitor the 26 anatomical landmarks of the upper digestive tract and document standard photos. Six novice trainees were allocated and grouped into the CAD group and control group. Each of them took the training course, pre and post-test, and EGD examination scored by two experts. The CAD group was trained with the assistance of the CAD system and the control group without.Results: Both groups achieved great improvements in EGD skills. The CAD group received a higher examination grading score in the EGD examination (72.83 ± 16.12 vs. 67.26 ± 15.64, p = 0.039), especially in the mucosa observation (26.40 ± 6.13 vs. 24.11 ± 6.21, p = 0.020) and quality of collected images (7.29 ± 1.09 vs. 6.70 ± 1.05). The CAD showed a lower blind spot rate (2.19 ± 2.28 vs. 3.92 ± 3.30, p = 0.008) compared with the control group.Conclusion: The artificial intelligence assistant system displayed assistant capacity on standard EGD training, and assisted trainees in achieving a learning curve with high operation quality, which has great potential for application.Clinical Trial Registration: This trial is registered at https:/clinicaltrials.gov/, number NCT04682821.

Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of Future US Spot Rates Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis

Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of Future US Spot Rates Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis

The Effect of Ship Owner-Ship Operator Separation on the Market Risk Split

Purpose - There are three different business models in shipping: owner-operators, operators, and owners. This paper analyzes the effect of separating owner-operators into tonnage providers and operators, and considers this effect from the perspective of risks and returns. Design/Methodology/Approach - A historical simulation was performed to measure realized operating profits and the volatility of each type of player. Time series data from 1992 was adopted from Clarkson Research and Drewry Maritime Research to simulate revenues, capital costs, and operating costs for 229 investment cases. A bootstrap sampling enhances the robustness of the results. Findings - The results show that the operating profits of owner-operators are divided into those of two separate players. The same, however, cannot be said for market risk. Against general expectations, operator market risk was not significantly reduced by separation; in the case of Panamax, it even increased. This can be explained by a negative correlation between spot rates and actually-applied time charter rates. Research Implication - Most papers on market risk have so far focused on the measurement and forecast of return volatility. This paper, on the other hand, is a novel attempt to analyze the effect of business model separation on market risk. The public-sector owner model is widely discussed in Korean shipping circles, and this paper is expected to provide meaningful insight to policymakers. Additionally, the risk-return profile of the pure owner model provides a good basis to develop the model for the balanced growth of the Korean shipping industry.

Carry Trade, Exchange Rates, and the Balance-of-Payments

Abstract This paper presents a partial equilibrium model that integrates interest rate arbitrage with the balance-of-payments constraint to determine the real exchange rate. The sequential logic is the following: (i) carry-trade determines the term premium, with the spot rate showing greater volatility than the forward rate, (ii) uncovered interest rate parity determines the spot rate based on the real exchange rate consistent with a financial constraint, defined as a stable ratio of foreign reserves to foreign debt; and (iii) the trade balance consistent with the financial constraint determines the long-run real exchange rate for a given ratio of domestic to foreign income.

The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan

This study explores the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) as the currency of a small island economy, uses the trading information sets from overseas and the market itself to examine the impacts on the adjustment of daily spot exchange rates. The daily USD/TWD is explained by the trading information sets, contain which the daily trading activities and the ratio of the real body on the daily candlestick chart of technical analysis on the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market, as well as the US-dollar index return to explain the USD/TWD spot rate change. The results showed that some of the USD/TWD changes were related to the US-dollar index return on overseas, and that the effect of the US-dollar index return was not limited to the adjustment rate from the previous closing rate to the opening rate on the day, which would affect the adjustment spot exchange rate in the intraday opening-to-closing period. There is a significant positive relationship between the real body ratio of the daily candlestick chart and the return of the exchange rate, supporting the real body ratio related to the change of the exchange rate. The study model can greatly improve the model interpretation ability of the change of exchange rate by about 50% after considering the trading activity factors. Finally, this study found that the volatility has a positive effect on Mondays and the 2008-financial crisis, and based on the shock that the news of depreciation was higher than the news of appreciation, so there exist asymmetry volatility.

Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Currency Exchanges of Selected Countries

The paper aims to analyse the impact of the COVID outbreak on the currency market. The study considers spot rates of seven major currencies (i.e., EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and CHF/JPY). To capture the impact of the outbreak on returns and the volatility of returns of seven currencies during pandemic, the study has segregated in two window periods (i.e., pre- [1st Jan 2019 to 31st Dec, 2019] and post-outbreak of COVID-19 [1st Jan, 2020 to 22nd Dec, 2020]). The study has applied various methods and models (i.e., econometric-based compounded annual growth rate [CAGR], dummy variable regression, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [GARCH]). The result of the study captures the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on three currencies—USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF—and positive significant impact on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and CHF/JPY. Investors can take short position in these while having long position in other currencies. The inferences drawn from the analysis are providing insight to investors and hedgers.