Event Abstract Back to Event Identification of highly pathogenic avian influenza suitable areas for wild birds using species distribution models in South Korea. Lee Kyuyoung1*, Dae-sung Yu2*, Beatriz Martínez-López1, Jaber A. Belkhiria1, Sung-il Kang2, Hachung Yoon2, Seong-Keun Hong2, ILSEOB LEE2, Han-Mo Son2 and Kwangnyeong Lee2 1 Department of Medicine & Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, United States 2 Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency (South Korea), Republic of Korea Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus is influenza A type virus with high mortality and morbidity in the broad range of host species domestic and wild birds to humans. HPAI infection has been a high-priority concern in global poultry industry because of consistent generation and circulation of novel HPAI strains, and consequent tremendous financial losses. Wild birds are considered one of the most important sources of novel HPAI introductions in poultry farms due to the experimental evidence of their asymptomatic infection with viral shedding, genetic closeness of HPAI virus identified in domestic poultry and wild birds, and spatial and temporal coincidence of identification of HPAI in wild birds and domestic poultry. The poultry industry in South Korea has annually suffered from the introduction of novel HPAI strains since early 2000s. HPAI infection in annually migrated wild birds has been carefully monitored to rapidly establish preventive measures of HPAI introduction into poultry farms in South Korea. However, current understanding of highly risk areas or suitable areas for HPAI in wild birds and contribution of other geographical and environmental factors contributing to HPAI vírus suitability is limited. Application of species distribution models based on digitalized geographical and environmental information facilitates our understanding about suitability of wild species’ habitat and its association with environmental and geographical factors. Furthermore, species distribution modelling can be applied to identify high-risk areas of potential disease transmission at the interface between wild species and domestic animals. Our study aimed to evaluate the areas with higher suitability/risk for HPAI identification in wild birds in South Korea and to describe what is the influence or association with the different environmental and geographical factors. Our results will help to not only have a better understanding of the ecology of HPAI in wild birds but also to establish more effective, risk-based, surveillance to prevent novel HPAI introductions into domestic poultry farms in South Korea We obtained land cover, monthly climate (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) and ecological preservation area (Level 1-3) data of South Korea in digitalized form as environmental and geographical data. The observation records of 7 species of wild birds (Baikal teal, white-front goose, common teal, mandarin duck, mallard, bean goose, spot-billed duck) in 206 habitats in South Korea from 1999 to 2017 were used to estimate the suitability map for the wild bird distribution in South Korea. The geographical records of wild bird HPAI surveillance from 2014 to 2018 was combined with 7 wild birds species distribution and environmental and geographical data to estimate the suitability map of HPAI identification in wild birds. Each suitability maps was estimated by maximum entropy approach (Maxent model) via the “dismo” package in R studio. 3. Results and Discussion Our study presents the suitability map of HPAI identification in wild birds and how geographical, environmental factors and 7 wild birds species distributions are contributing to the prediction. These results will not only provide a high-resolution map for the target allocation of surveillance and rapid detection of HPAI in wild birds but also will allow the improvement of the cost-effectiveness of risk-based surveillance of HPAI introduction into domestic poultry farms in South Korea. Acknowledgements This study was supported by the 2019-20 cooperative research grant from the veterinary epidemiology Division in the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency (APQA) in South Korea and the fellowship of the graduate student support program (GSSP) at UC Davis
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