Spillover Effects Research Articles

Does advanced human capital structure improve carbon emission performance in China? Empirical research from a spatial spillover perspective

Facilitating coordination between economic growth and carbon mitigation is vital for the sustainability of human society. Identifying the driving factors of Carbon emission performance (CEP) is crucial for its improvement. Nevertheless, empirical research on the relationship between advanced human capital structure (AHCS) and CEP remains scarce. This study analyzes the impact of AHCS on CEP utilizing a dataset covering 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2021. First, we construct a global epsilon-based measure (EBM) model with undesired output to accurately measure the multi-period CEP for Chinese provinces. Next, we evaluate the level of AHCS from the perspective of dynamic evolution. Subsequently, a spatial Durbin model (SDM) is employed to examine the spatial spillover effects of AHCS on CEP. The results illustrate that CEP exhibits significant positive spatial spillover effects across provinces. Additionally, AHCS has a direct and significant positive impact on local CEP and can indirectly enhance CEP in neighboring regions through spillover effects, although the impact varies across different regions. The impact mechanism analysis indicates that AHCS enhances CEP via technological advancement, industrial structure upgrading (ISU), and energy efficiency improvement, despite the asymmetric effects observed between local and neighboring provinces. Therefore, shaping a favorable educational environment to optimize the human capital structure is critical for the improvement of CEP. In addition, promoting resource sharing and technology exchange through regional cooperation is essential for China’s low-carbon transition development.

The effects of climate change technology spillovers on carbon emissions across European countries

To unravel the challenges in the global diffusion of climate-friendly technologies, this investigation analyzes the diffusion of climate change-related technologies across countries. By using an unbalanced panel of selected European countries over the period 1990-2020, this investigation quantifies the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission effects of the diffusion of climate change-related technologies that are mediated by imports, geographical and technological proximity and free diffusion of technologies. In this study, the effects of domestic development of climate change-related technologies, population and affluence are also accounted for, and the emission effects are estimated using a fixed-effects panel model with instrumental variables. The instrumental variable for foreign technology spillovers is based on the technology support policies adopted in foreign countries. As expected, international spillovers of climate-friendly technologies are negatively linked to CO2 emissions, thus promoting emission reductions across the region. Importantly, emission reductions in Europe are more strongly influenced by international technology spillovers than by domestic innovation activities. Moreover, while all the analyzed technology diffusion channels appear relevant, the results are the most robust regarding import-mediated technology spillovers. Insights from this study support policy recommendations, especially in the trade policy context.

Spillover effects of MSCI inclusion announcement: Evidence and implications from China

Spillover effects of MSCI inclusion announcement: Evidence and implications from China

The impact of climate attention on risk spillover effect in energy futures markets

The impact of climate attention on risk spillover effect in energy futures markets

How does green technology innovation affect urban carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese cities

Green technology innovation is regarded as a key catalyst for sustainable urban development. This study mainly utilizes 278 Chinese cities data from the China Urban Statistical Yearbook, adopting ordinary least squares (OLS) and mediation effect model to investigate the dual impact and mechanism of green technology innovation on urban carbon emissions. Besides, spatial Durbin model (SDM) and threshold model are employed to examine spillover and non-linear impact. The results indicate that: (1) Green technology innovation can significantly mitigate carbon emission intensity, but cannot reduce carbon emissions. Thus, both carbon emission reduction effect and rebound effect coexist, and there is heterogeneity across different cities. (2) Green technology innovation has the potential to decrease carbon intensity through optimizing energy intensity, government participation and basic life cleanliness. (3) There is a spatial spillover effect concerning the emission reduction impact of green technology innovation. (4) The relationship between carbon emission intensity and green technology innovation exhibits a non-linear impact under varying levels of energy intensity, government participation, industrial structure rationalization, and environmental regulation. Building upon these findings, policy recommendations outlined in this study encompass the reinforcement of technological utilization, avoidance of excessive governmental intervention, and adoption of strategies for regional connectivity and differentiation.

Synergistic abatement effects of Broadband China and environmental regulation: Firm-level evidence

Based on the new era context of digital economy and green development, this study uses Broadband China (BC) as a quasi-natural experiment, combining its strategic interaction with environmental regulation (ER), to empirically test the policy synergistic abatement effect of BC and ER. BC has resulted in an average of 6 % reduction in corporate carbon emissions, and the BC–ER policy interaction has encouraged firms to further reduce their emissions. This policy mix mainly exerts an abatement effect on firms by increasing green factors at the input–output stage and improving production efficiency. Furthermore, the digitalization effect of BC reduces corporate carbon emissions. Our empirical results are stronger for firms with high financial constraints, non-heavily polluting firms, non-high-technology firms, state-owned enterprises, and developed urban agglomerations. Furthermore, BC significantly suppresses the sectoral and spatial spillover effects of corporate carbon emissions, and external shocks to ER exacerbate this suppression effect. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the “tripartite win–win” of digital construction, green transformation, and energy conservation.

Merchants of Death: The Effect of Credit Supply Shocks on Hospital Outcomes

This study examines the link between credit supply and hospital health outcomes. We use bank stress tests as exogenous shocks to credit access for hospitals that have lending relationships with tested banks. We find that affected hospitals shift their operations to increase resource utilization following a negative credit shock but reduce the quality of their care to patients across a variety of measures, including a significant increase in risk-adjusted readmission and mortality rates. The results indicate that access to credit can affect the quality of health care hospitals deliver, pointing to important spillover effects of credit market frictions on health outcomes. (JEL G21, G32, I11, I18)

The Spillover Effect of Constituency Statutes Along Supply Chains: Evidence From Supplier Commitment

This study examines the spillover effect of constituency statutes along the supply chain. We posit that the enactment of constituency statutes in customer firms’ incorporation states, by removing legal obstacles for customer firms to cater to non-shareholders’ interests, builds suppliers’ trust and cooperation. Consistent with the notion that constituency statutes entice greater trust from suppliers, we find that suppliers make more relationship-specific investments in the supply chain after the enactment of constituency statutes in customers’ states, indicating a greater commitment to the customer. We also show an improvement in customers’ corporate social responsibility performance in the post-constituency-statute period, thus substantiating the claim that the constituency statutes increase customers’ stakeholder orientation. Cross-sectionally, we find the positive effect of constituency statutes on supplier relationship-specific investments is attenuated if the customer and supplier have more repeated interactions in the past, whereas the effect is more pronounced if suppliers produce durable goods. Overall, we provide novel evidence on the spillover of constituency statutes along the supply chain.

Technological Change and Entrepreneurial Activities: Evidence from China

This study is among the first to examine the impacts of technological change on entrepreneurial activities. Using new registered enterprises data and industrial robot data from 2010 to 2018, we find that robot adoption is broadly negatively associated with regional entrepreneurial activities. However, our analysis reveals a more nuanced understanding, in which robot adoption boosts high-quality entrepreneurial activities in regions, specifically those in technology-based industries, but reduces low-quality entrepreneurial activities. We also find that a favorable labor allocation environment and sufficient labor resources, as well as abundant high-skilled labor resources, can mitigate the negative impact. Credit constraints and the upgrading of industrial structures are effective in mitigating the crowding-out effect. In cities with higher unemployment risks, the negative effect is attenuated. The extent of the negative effect varies depending on the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, and the hukou reform helps to mitigate the negative impact. In addition, robot adoption has a significant spatial spillover effect between adjacent cities. These findings shed light on the effects of industrial robot adoption on local entrepreneurial activities, as well as the role of technological change in fostering entrepreneurial activities. Our findings suggest that it is crucial to grasp the strategic opportunities embedded in technological change to spur entrepreneurship.

Contemporaneous and lagged spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and climate change

In this paper, we examine the contemporaneous and lagged spillovers among the agricultural, crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and climate change markets. Adopting the R2 decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings. First, the overall total connectedness index (TCI) dynamics have been mainly dominated by contemporaneous effects. Second, there are heterogeneous spillover effects among agricultural markets. Specially, corn, soybean meal, and wheat are the major risk transmitters to this system, while barley, cocoa, and lean hog are the main risk receivers of shocks. Third, we also find that climate change has significant spillovers to other markets.

Does Government Environmental Concern Affect Enterprise Sustainable Development? Evidence from China

As the executor and agent of China’s environmental policy, local governments’ environmental concern reflects local governments’ determination in environmental governance. To figure out how the strengthening environmental concerns affect enterprises’ long-term activities, this study focuses on pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises due to the enormous and complex composition of emissions. We apply bag of words to summarize relevant environmental words from the annual work reports in local governments to measure environmental concern. The empirical results of the OLS method reveal that the increasing environmental concerns of local governments did decrease the growth rate of chemical oxygen demand (COD) emission authentically. At the same time, it will inhibit the research and experimental development (R&D) activity intensity, but promote production efficiency of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises. After that, we discuss the heterogeneity of enterprise ownership, corporate social responsibility and regional regulatory strength of enterprises. Overall, we conclude that environmental concern did reduce COD emission and promote production efficiency, but it also has negative spillover effects. The novel contribution of this paper is that it enriches the trade-off between strengthening environmental compliance costs and long-term production and innovation activities. These results indicate that pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises prioritize optimizing existing production processes instead of adopting efficient technology when complying with stricter environmental regulation. The reduction of R&D activities may pose risks to the long-term sustainable development of enterprises.

The risk spillover between geopolitical risk and China’s 5G, semiconductor and rare earth industries

Spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that when an economic entity, industry or market encounters a change or shock, its impact is transmitted to other entities, industries or markets. In recent years, 5G, semiconductors and rare earths have successively become geopolitical battlegrounds. In this paper, sparrow search algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition (VMD), then use the optimized VMD to decompose the geopolitical risk (GPR), 5G, semiconductor and rare earth time series data, and exploit fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm to obtain low-frequency and high-frequency time series. Finally we investigates the connectedness between GPR and China's 5G, semiconductor, and rare earth industries based on TVP-VAR model in different cycles, as well as between these industries. The findings reveal that there exists risk spillover between GPR and the three industries, which is significantly enhanced under the impact of geopolitical events. In addition, there is heterogeneity in the risk spillover between GPR and these three industries in different cycles. Notably, in the short term, the GPR is the main source of risk, and in the long term, the semiconductor industry has the great impact on GPR, 5G and rare earth industries, indicating that the semiconductor industry has very important geopolitical significance.

Mapping the composite institutional dynamics risks and spatial spillover effects on environmental sustainability in 28 Asian economies

This study emphasizes the impact of economic, financial, and political institutions on environmental sustainability across 28 Asian countries from 1995 to 2022. Using a spatial Durbin model, we analyzed the direct effects of these institutional factors within each country as well as their spatial spillover effects on neighboring nations. Our findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of environmental risks and the broader regional implications. This highlights the critical need for collaborative policy initiatives at the regional level to promote environmental sustainability. The results provide important insights for policymakers and international organizations seeking to address environmental sustainability in an increasingly globalized context. By emphasizing the role of institutions and spatial interdependencies, this research offers a nuanced understanding of the drivers of emissions in Asia and the potential for coordinated action to mitigate climate change.

Exploring the relationship between digital infrastructure and carbon emission efficiency: New insights from the resource curse and green technology innovation in China

Resource-rich regions can fall prey to the resource curse, leading to a decline in carbon emissions efficiency (CEE). But amid this challenge, building digital infrastructure offers an opportunity to find solutions that will pave the way for sustainable development. An indicator evaluation system was constructed to measure the level of digital infrastructure (DI) using panel data for 275 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. The impact of DI on CEE is validated using several econometric models. As an innovation, the time lag effect and spatial spillover effects are considered in the analysis. The study found that DI significantly improves CEE, and this effect is more effective in central and resource-based cities, but only significant in southern cities, cities with high levels of marketization, and cities with high levels of human capital. Reducing the resource curse and increasing green technological innovation are important transmission pathways, which are considered to be the key role of DI. Further, the third period of lagged DI has the most significant effect, and there is a positive spatial spillover effect of DI on the CEE of neighboring cities, which is most prominent around 600 km. Policymakers are advised to improve the level of construction of DI, focus on digital management, and utilize the role of DI at the optimal time and distance.

Emissions Reduction Effects and Carbon Leakage Risks of Carbon Emissions Trading Policy: An Empirical Study Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

China’s carbon emissions trading policy represents a significant institutional innovation designed to advance the country’s economic and social development towards sustainability and low-carbon growth. This study investigates the effects of China’s carbon emissions trading policy by employing the difference-in-differences model and spatial Durbin model, using provincial panel data spanning from 2005 to 2020. We find that the carbon emissions trading policy can inhibit per capita carbon emissions in the pilot areas. This work is primarily driven by green technological innovation and the upgrade of industrial structure. Furthermore, the carbon emissions trading policy exhibits a positive spatial spillover effect, inhibits per capita carbon emissions in the areas adjacent to the pilot through demonstration effect and competition effect, and does not cause carbon leakage. These findings reveal the policy’s effectiveness in emissions reduction, and may be useful reference for promoting sustainable economic and social development. This is of great practical significance for exploring how to optimize environmental governance measures, avoid carbon leakage, and achieve balance and fairness in responsibilities in achieving low-carbon sustainable development. Our study proposes policy recommendations for synergizing the national trading market in China.

Break a peg! A study of stablecoin co-instability

Following the increasing adoption of stablecoins, their robustness has become an ongoing concern for investors and regulators alike. This article studies the co-instability of a large panel of stablecoins by identifying their structural breaks and co-occurrences. Moreover, we use Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation DCC-GARCH models to assess spillover effects in the wake of four major black swan events in the crypto world. Similar to prior literature, we conclude that algorithmic stablecoins were the major shock receivers of the IRON TITAN and TERRA LUNA crashes, highlighting the importance of allowing for sufficient margins of safety in their design. We also observe that the FTX bankruptcy and the Silicon Valley Bank collapse had repercussions of a different nature and affected more categories of stablecoins, from algorithmic to fiat money-backed. We also highlight how, irrespective of the idiosyncratic or systemic nature of the shocks, well-known custodial stablecoins, as well as the most successful crypto-collateralized tokens, showed resilience during or in the immediate aftermath of these events.

Network Spillover Effects and Path Analysis of Shocks - An Empirical Study in China

Network Spillover Effects and Path Analysis of Shocks - An Empirical Study in China

Impact of Short-Haul High Speed Rail Commuting on Land Use and Spatial Structure in a Multi-Centre Metropolitan Area

Owing to the enhanced accessibility afforded by high-speed rail, the relationship between megacities and their neighboring cities has grown closer. Megacities exert a significant influence on the land use of neighboring cities. This study employs a spatial econometric model to investigate the direct impact and spatial spillover effects of high-speed rail on urban land values, based on urban panel data from China’s Yangtze River Delta region (2006-2020). The results revealed that shorter commuting times and improved frequency of service had a more substantial effect. Additionally, due to alterations in land values, there is a distinct preference tendency for urban land use attributes. Therefore, the city’s spatial organization has transformed, and its center of gravity has shifted as well. This study provides crucial theoretical justifications and empirical evidence to fill the gaps left by previous research on the effects of short-haul high-speed rail commuting on urban housing prices and land use. The study also offers valuable insights for strategic planning and implementation aimed at promoting urban development and urban agglomeration construction through HSR construction.

Competitive or crowding‐out? Estimating spillover effects from large‐scale farms on smallholders in China

AbstractDrawing on data from the Chinese Family Database for 2015, 2017, and 2019, this study employed the difference‐in‐differences method to examine the spillover effects of large‐scale farms (LSFs) on smallholders. The findings confirmed that LSFs positively affect smallholder household income and nonfarm income. The mechanisms verified that LSFs increase the nonfarm income of smallholders, primarily through the transfer out of their land. Additionally, we found that vulnerable groups—such as households with a lower proportion of the labor force, a lower proportion of members in good health, and lower total education years of the labor force—are more likely to be crowded out. Additionally, the study confirmed that LSFs steal the market from smallholders, precipitating a slightly negative competitive effect. These findings have important policy implications for developing countries implementing the LSF policy and for countries where smallholders suffer from livelihood issues.

The Role of Global Oil Prices in US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Small Open Economies: Evidence From MINT Countries

We explore the importance of global oil prices in the spillovers of US monetary policy to four small open economies (SOEs): Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (MINT). Our findings indicate that oil prices amplify the spillover effects on MINT’s real GDP. The negative impact is more pronounced when oil prices fall. This suggests that oil prices are a crucial determinant of US monetary policy spillovers.