Extinction Risk Of Species Research Articles

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Using Red List Indices to monitor extinction risk at national scales

AbstractThe Red List Index (RLI) measures change in the aggregate extinction risk of species. It is a key indicator for tracking progress toward nine of the Aichi and many proposed post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework Targets. Here, we consider two formulations of the RLI used for reporting biodiversity trends at national scales. Disaggregated global RLIs measure changing national contributions to global extinction risk and are currently based on five taxonomic groups, while national RLIs measure changing national extinction risk and are based on taxonomic groups assessed multiple times in country. For 74% of nations, the disaggregated global RLI is currently based on three or fewer taxonomic groups. Meanwhile, national RLIs from selected pilot countries Finland, South Africa, and Brazil are computed from twelve, eight, and nine taxonomic groups, respectively. The national RLI and the disaggregated global RLI measure different aspects of biodiversity, in that the former detects national trends in populations of species for which each country is responsible while the latter provides standardized comparisons of nations' contributions to the global extinction risk of the same species groups. As governments commit to the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we encourage them to monitor a standard set of taxonomic groups representing different biomes using both RLI formulations to ensure effective target tracking and accurate feedback on their conservation investments.

Quantifying and mapping species threat abatement opportunities to support national target setting.

The successful implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will rely on effective translation of targets from global to national level and increased engagement across diverse sectors of society. Species conservation targets require policy support measures that can be applied to a diversity of taxonomic groups, that link action targets to outcome goals, and that can be applied to both global and national data sets to account for national context, which the species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric does. To test the flexibility of STAR, we applied the metric to vascular plants listed on national red lists of Brazil, Norway, and South Africa. The STAR metric uses data on species' extinction risk, distributions, and threats, which we obtained from national red lists to quantify the contribution that threat abatement and habitat restoration activities could make to reducing species' extinction risk. Across all 3 countries, the greatest opportunity for reducing plant species' extinction risk was from abating threats from agricultural activities, which could reduce species' extinction risk by 54% in Norway, 36% in South Africa, and 29% in Brazil. Species extinction risk could be reduced by a further 21% in South Africa by abating threats from invasive species and by 21% in Brazil by abating threats from urban expansion. Even with different approaches to red-listing among countries, the STAR metric yielded informative results that identified where the greatest conservation gains could be made for species through threat-abatement and restoration activities. Quantifiably linking local taxonomic coverage and data collection to global processes with STAR would allow national target setting to align with global targets and enable state and nonstate actors to measure and report on their potential contributions to species conservation.

Extinction risk of Chinese angiosperms varies between woody and herbaceous species

AbstractAimUnderstanding how species' traits and environmental contexts relate to extinction risk is a critical priority for ecology and conservation biology. This study aims to identify and explore factors related to extinction risk between herbaceous and woody angiosperms to facilitate more effective conservation and management strategies and understand the interactions between environmental threats and species' traits.LocationChina.TaxonAngiosperms.MethodsWe obtained a large dataset including five traits, six extrinsic variables, and 796,118 occurrence records for 14,888 Chinese angiosperms. We assessed the phylogenetic signal and used phylogenetic generalized least squares regressions to explore relationships between extinction risk, plant traits, and extrinsic variables in woody and herbaceous angiosperms. We also used phylogenetic path analysis to evaluate causal relationships among traits, climate variables, and extinction risk of different growth forms.ResultsThe phylogenetic signal of extinction risk differed among woody and herbaceous species. Angiosperm extinction risk was mainly affected by growth form, altitude, mean annual temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, and precipitation change from 1901 to 2020. Woody species' extinction risk was strongly affected by height and precipitation, whereas extinction risk for herbaceous species was mainly affected by mean annual temperature rather than plant traits.Main conclusionsWoody species were more likely to have higher extinction risks than herbaceous species under climate change and extinction threat levels varied with both plant traits and extrinsic variables. The relationships we uncovered may help identify and protect threatened plant species and the ecosystems that rely on them.

Harnessing Ecosystem Services from Invasive Alien Grass and Rush Species to Suppress their Aggressive Expansion in South Africa

Invasive alien species are regarded as one of the major driving forces of species extinction worldwide. To counteract the invasion’s spread and minimize species extinction risk, countries like South Africa are devoted to halting human-induced invasion using various means. The failed efforts to halt the invasion spread have forced South African scientists to start considering social controlling mechanisms, including utilization of these species without propagation as one of the alternatives. It is within this context that this review was aimed at making an inventory of invasive grass species that provide ecosystem services in South Africa. The required data were gathered through rigorous literature surveys and analysis. A total of 19 invasive alien grass and rush species, from 15 genera and two families that are associated with provision of ecosystems services, were documented. The reported species are associated with the provision of nine ecosystem services. The current study argued that although these species are associated with some ecosystem services, they can also threaten the ecological integrity of the ecosystems if not properly managed. Insights about ecosystem services associated with invasive alien grass and rush species are significant in balancing the complex environmental issues and livelihood requirements in rural South Africa.

Prioritising species for monitoring in a South African protected area and the Red List for plants

Protected areas (PA) in biodiversity hotspots face the challenge of monitoring large numbers of locally rare and threatened plant species at times with limited budgets. Prioritising species according to their local extinction risk could help PA managers to decide which species to monitor. However, there is often very little information available on the species occurrence and extinction risk in the PA. Because of this, PA managers often rely on the national or global Red List for prioritising species at the PA level. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of using the Red List for species prioritisation and examine the robustness of extinction probability equations for 74 fynbos species in Table Mountain National Park (TMNP). We conducted in-field surveys to verify the persistence of subpopulations previously recorded, following a detection protocol adapted for rare and cryptic plant species. We found that most targeted species were extant within TMNP but with a substantially reduced number of subpopulations. Twenty-six species only had one or two subpopulations remaining. Critically Endangered (CR) species lost on average 4 subpopulations more than Least Concern (LC) species. However, species persistence in TMNP was largely independent of their Red List status. Half of the species represented by just one or two subpopulations were listed as LC. This work shows that prioritising monitoring according to the Red List status is not appropriate at the scale of the individual PA. We suggest that more in-field data and monitoring is required to prevent extinctions occurring in PAs.

Revisiting the hymenopteran diploid male vortex: a review of avoidance mechanisms and incidence

AbstractAll hymenopterans (bees, ants, wasps, and sawflies) have haplodiploid sex determination. Generally, this involves haploid males developing from unfertilized eggs and diploid females developing from fertilized eggs, but diploid male production (DMP) frequently occurs. Some species have complementary sex determination (CSD), in which heterozygotes of a csd locus or loci are diploid females, hemizygotes are haploid males, and homozygotes are typically sterile diploid males. These diploid males underlie the diploid male vortex (DMV), the phenomenon of inbreeding reducing csd allelic diversity and causing increasingly higher production of sterile diploid males until the population dies out. The DMV has been cited as an extinction risk for many species across the order and a danger to both human‐controlled and natural hymenopteran populations important in biological control, pollination, and endangered species conservation. However, it has been unclear how frequently it occurs. We review the known mechanisms for DMV avoidance. Many of these mechanisms are linked to lifestyle, and so we structure our investigation around eusocial lifestyle and non‐eusocial (solitary or gregarious) species. We also review documented DMV incidence to make an inference about its prevalence. There are many means to avoid inbreeding or diploid male production, including eusocial‐exclusive polygyny, polyandry, and diploid queen execution. For both eusocial and non‐eusocial species these include biological mechanisms such as multi‐locus CSD or non‐CSD sex determination, diploid male inviability or brood removal, partial diploid male fecundity, and mating avoidance of kin or diploid males; or population genetic mechanisms such as gene flow and dispersal, balancing selection of csd alleles (with some being more prominent in eusocial vs. non‐eusocial species). Documented cases of DMV are uncommon, and incidence is often tied to exacerbatory conditions such as habitat fragmentation and host declines. With this review we suggest that due to numerous avoidance mechanisms, DMV risk may not be as high as previously believed, and requires specific circumstances. In doing so we aim to better inform hymenopteran breeding and conservation efforts.

Humid tropical vertebrates are at lower risk of extinction and population decline in forests with higher structural integrity.

Reducing deforestation underpins global biodiversity conservation efforts. However, this focus on retaining forest cover overlooks the multitude of anthropogenic pressures that can degrade forest quality and imperil biodiversity. We use remotely sensed indices of tropical rainforest structural condition and associated human pressures to quantify the relative importance of forest cover, structural condition and integrity (the cumulative effect of condition and pressures) on vertebrate species extinction risk and population trends across the global humid tropics. We found that tropical rainforests of high integrity (structurally intact and under low pressures) were associated with lower likelihood of species being threatened and having declining populations, compared with forest cover alone (without consideration of condition and pressures). Further, species were more likely to be threatened or have declining populations if their geographic ranges contained high proportions of degraded forest than if their ranges contained lower proportions of forest cover but of high quality. Our work suggests that biodiversity conservation policies to preserve forest integrity are now urgently required alongside ongoing efforts to halt deforestation in the hyperdiverse humid tropics.

Viability assessment of the Wami-Mbiki Game Reserve to Nyerere National Park wildlife corridor in southern Tanzania

Wildlife corridors are critical for the effective conservation of wildlife and for enhancing ecosystem services. Unfortunately, increased human pressure has increased the risk of species extinction in wildlife corridors. Studies on wildlife corridor connectivity have always used Geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) without information from ground surveys thus lacking comprehensive conclusions for effective management. We assessed wildlife corridor connectivity between the Wami-Mbiki Game Reserve–Nyerere National Park (WMGR-NYENAPA) in Tanzania, using a combination of ground transect surveys, RS, and GIS. Overall, the RS and GIS showed a decline in the woody cover types over the past 40 years. Forest and woodland declined by 9% and 17% respectively between 1980 and 2020. Conversely, the land conversions namely agriculture and settlement increased by 4.7% and 0.1%, respectively. The spatial distribution of the twenty-two (22) wildlife species recorded using ground surveys was negatively affected by increasing land conversions. Although plant diversity to support wildlife survival was abundant, suggesting the suitability of the corridor for wildlife, elephant movements were severed as one might predict in a degraded corridor. We urge protecting the remaining corridor area. We further recommend a combination of actions to secure the remaining part of the corridor including enforcement of existing land use regulations that restrict land clearance, improving cross-sectoral dialogues on sustainable conservation by harmonizing conflicting legislation between conservation and land development, formulating a specific organ with the mandate to manage cross-cutting issues on wildlife corridors and introducing community conservation education and awareness through extension programs on poaching, sustainable utilization of natural land resources including REDD+ programs and adoption of alternative income source activities.

Expert-based assessment of the climate change vulnerability of amphibians and reptiles of Uruguay

SummaryClimate change (CC) is a major threat to biodiversity, increasing species extinction risk. Assessments of its possible impacts on species are crucial for designing conservation strategies. Here, we adjusted a global trait-based approach to the national level and apply it to Uruguay (South America) to evaluate the CC vulnerability of its herpetofauna. A total of 112 species were assessed in a scenario of CC projections for 2050 with regard to three dimensions of vulnerability: sensitivity, low adaptive capacity and exposure. We conducted the assessment through an expert elicitation process based on the Delphi method. We found that most local species (64.6% amphibians; 100% reptiles) were highly sensitive to CC. Among them, seven amphibians (14.6%) and seven reptiles (10.9%) were identified as highly vulnerable to CC. Important gaps in the life-history traits of the species were found that should guide future research. The structured expert consultation process allowed us to gather more and better information than if it had only been based on published sources. Our study identified challenges associated with changing the scale from global to national that might be used for similar assessments in other countries.

Current state of knowledge on the extinction risk of Malaysian tree species: Proximate needs to mitigate loss

Societal Impact StatementAs one of the world's top megadiverse countries for tree species, Malaysia remains committed towards reducing tree population loss and species extinction. In order to ensure efficacy in the planning and implementation of conservation programmes, prioritisation of resources, and mainstreaming across the key drivers of biodiversity loss, it is essential to identify, document, and assess the extinction risk of families with high levels of endemism. In addition to being an integral component of ecosystems and their functions, from a socio‐ecological perspective, the rich biodiversity of Malaysia constitutes extraordinary natural capital that many people depend on for their livelihoods and well‐being.SummaryMalaysia is a megadiverse country for plant species. Knowledge of the diversity of Malaysian plant species is incomplete but has been significantly expanded by the Tree Flora of Sabah and Sarawak and Flora of Peninsular Malaysia projects. More than 400 new plant species, including at least 14 new genera, have been added since 1995. Between 1973 and 2015, Malaysia lost an estimated 29.4% natural forest cover; conserving plant species at immediate risk of extinction will help alleviate future loss of natural forests and biodiversity. With 9.2% of the world's tree species dwelling in Malaysia, of which 29.8% are endemic, species risk assessment is an important conservation planning tool for the Malaysian flora. Through the Global Tree Assessment project, Malaysia verified that approximately 24% of the tree diversity is exposed to a multitude of threats ranging from deforestation and forest degradation to poaching and incursion of invasive alien species. Here, we summarise the extent and types of extinction risk faced by several of our keystone tree families, namely, Dipterocarpaceae, and tree genera of Myristicaceae and Sapotaceae, whose timbers remain highly valued. We summarise the nature and aims of programmes that spur the country's conservation agenda for threatened plant species and describe some specific targets for Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak. We focus on efforts that enhance in situ conservation and the understanding of population dynamics. Programmes that enable and support the main agenda, such as institutional capacity building and awareness of the importance of biodiversity, are also briefly explained.

National eDNA-based monitoring of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and amphibian species in Norway

Freshwaters represent the most threatened environments with regard to biodiversity loss and, therefore, there is a need for national monitoring programs to effectively document species distribution and evaluate potential risks for vulnerable species. The monitoring of species for effective management practices is, however, challenged by insufficient data acquisition when using traditional methods. Here we present the application of environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding of amphibians in combination with quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays for an invasive pathogenic chytrid species (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis -Bd), a potential threat to endemic and endangered amphibian species. Statistical comparison of amphibian species detection using either traditional or eDNA-based approaches showed weak correspondence. By tracking the distribution of Bd over three years, we concluded that the risk for amphibian extinction is low since Bd was only detected at five sites where multiple amphibians were present over the sampled years. Our results show that eDNA-based detection can be used for simultaneous monitoring of amphibian diversity and the presence of amphibian pathogens at the national level in order to assess potential species extinction risks and establish effective management practices. As such our study represents suggestions for a national monitoring program based on eDNA.

Human density modulates spatial associations among tropical forest terrestrial mammal species.

The spatial aggregation of species pairs often increases with the ecological similarity of the species involved. However, the way in which environmental conditions and anthropogenic activity affect the relationship between spatial aggregation and ecological similarity remains unknown despite the potential for spatial associations to affect species interactions, ecosystem function, and extinction risk. Given that human disturbance has been shown to both increase and decrease spatial associations among species pairs, ecological similarity may have a role in mediating these patterns. Here, we test the influences of habitat diversity, primary productivity, human population density, and species' ecological similarity based on functional traits (i.e., functional trait similarity) on spatial associations among tropical forest mammals. Large mammals are highly sensitive to anthropogenic change and therefore susceptible to changes in interspecific spatial associations. Using two-species occupancy models and camera trap data, we quantified the spatial overlap of 1216 species pairs from 13 tropical forest protected areas around the world. We found that the association between ecological similarity and interspecific species associations depended on surrounding human density. Specifically, aggregation of ecologically similar species was more than an order of magnitude stronger in landscapes with the highest human density compared to those with the lowest human density, even though all populations occurred within protected areas. Human-induced changes in interspecific spatial associations have been shown to alter top-down control by predators, increase disease transmission and increase local extinction rates. Our results indicate that anthropogenic effects on the distribution of wildlife within protected areas are already occurring and that impacts on species interactions, ecosystem functions, and extinction risk warrant further investigation.

High resolution thermal remote sensing and the limits of species' tolerance.

Extinction risks for many insect species, particularly across very broad spatial extents, have been linked to the growing frequency and severity of temperatures that exceed the boundaries of their realized niches. Measurement and mitigation of such impacts is hindered by the availability of high-resolution measurements of species-specific severity of extreme weather, especially temperature. While techniques enabling interpolation of broad-scale remote sensing metrics are vital for such efforts, direct remote sensing measurements of thermal conditions could improve habitat management by providing detailed insights that interpolative approaches cannot. Advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology have created opportunities to better evaluate the role of microclimates in local species extinctions. Here, we develop a method to create high-resolution maps of microclimates using UAV and thermal imaging technology that use species’ realized niche boundaries to assess potential effects of severity of extreme temperatures. We generated air temperature maps (5 cm resolution) and canopy height maps (1 cm resolution) for 15 sites in a rare alvar ecosystem in eastern Ontario. We validated these remote sensing observations against independent, in situ temperature observations using iButtons. Temperature observations were accurate and related to physical heterogeneity in alvar habitats. We converted temperature measures into estimates of proximity of thermal niche boundaries for three butterfly species found during field surveys. This is the first time that this method has been applied to high resolution remote sensing observations and offers potential to assess the availability and adequacy of microclimates within habitats at resolutions relevant for conservation management.

Amount of bird suitable areas under climate change is modulated by morphological, ecological and geographical traits

Biodiversity is already experiencing the effects of climate change through range expansion, retraction, or relocation, potentializing negative effects of other threats. Future projections already indicate richness reduction and composition modifications of bird communities due to global warming, which may disrupt the provision of key ecological services to ecosystem maintenance. Here, we systematically review the effect of morphological, ecological, and geographical traits on the amount of future suitable area for birds worldwide. Specifically, we tested whether body mass, diet, habitat type, movement pattern, range size, and biogeographic realm affect birds' suitable area. Our search returned 75 studies that modeled the effects of climate change on 1,991 bird species. Our analyses included 1,661 species belonging to 128 families, representing 83% of the total, for which we were able to acquire all the six traits. The proportion of birds' suitable area was affected by range size, body mass, habitat type, and biogeographic realm, while diet and movement pattern showed lower relative importance and were not included in our final model. Contrary to expectations, the proportion of birds' suitable area was negatively related to range size, which may be explained by higher climatic stability predicted in certain areas that harbor species with restricted distribution. In contrast, we observed that birds presenting higher body mass will show an increase of the proportion of suitable area in the future. This is expected due to the high exposure of smaller birds to environmental changes and their difficulty to keep thermoregulation. Our results also indicated a low proportion of suitable area to forest-dependent birds, which is in accordance with their higher vulnerability due to specific requirements for reproduction and feeding. Finally, the proportion of suitable area was low for birds from Oceania, which is expected since the region encompasses small islands isolated from continents, preventing their species from reaching new suitable areas. Our study highlights that different traits should be considered when assessing extinction risk of species based on future projections, helping to improve bird conservation, especially the most vulnerable to climate change.

The importance of negative density dependence for rare species persistence

Determining the predictors of extinction risk is a major goal of conservation biology. Theory suggests that population characteristics such as low abundance and declining trends should equate to high extinction risk. However, rare species persist and account for nearly half of all species across global communities. Here we employ the Chicago Botanic Garden's long-term, rare species monitoring dataset to investigate population dynamics and hypothesized predictors of extinction risk of 73 populations of 43 rare species. Specifically, we ask how important negative density dependence is for rare species persistence and how well population size, population trends, life cycle duration, and clonality predict estimates of extinction risk in rare species. Extinction risk was estimated using density-dependent and density-independent population viability analyses. Based on our simulations, we found that only 33 of our populations had concerning extinction risks (>20 %). The key to these relatively low extinction risks for so many rare, listed species was negative density dependence. Population size, population trends, life cycle duration, and clonality were not good predictors of extinction risk based on our modeling efforts, though their relationships to extinction risk did agree with theoretical expectations. Our results highlight the potential importance of negative density dependence for rare species persistence and the importance of incorporating density dependence in population projection models for extinction risk assessment.

Genetic diversity loss in the Anthropocene.

Anthropogenic habitat loss and climate change are reducing species' geographic ranges, increasing extinction risk and losses of species' genetic diversity. Although preserving genetic diversity is key to maintaining species' adaptability, we lack predictive tools and global estimates of genetic diversity loss across ecosystems. We introduce a mathematical framework that bridges biodiversity theory and population genetics to understand the loss of naturally occurring DNA mutations with decreasing habitat. By analyzing genomic variation of 10,095 georeferenced individuals from 20 plant and animal species, we show that genome-wide diversity follows a mutations-area relationship power law with geographic area, which can predict genetic diversity loss from local population extinctions. We estimate that more than 10% of genetic diversity may already be lost for many threatened and nonthreatened species, surpassing the United Nations' post-2020 targets for genetic preservation.

Conservation status of the world’s carnivorous mammals (order Carnivora)

The conservation of carnivores (order Carnivora) can lead to the conservation of other species as well as entire ecosystems since they play an important ecosystemic role. However, their predatory behaviour has caused many of these species to experience marked population declines worldwide and they may therefore face greater anthropogenic threats than other animal groups. To examine the conservation status, population trends, distribution patterns, habitats and threats of all extant species belonging to this order (N = 290), we collected data from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's Red List. In addition, we calculated the Red List Index (RLI) to measure the change in extinction risk of species over time. Carnivores are more threatened than mammals in general (26.9% of endangered species vs. 22.7%) and have a significantly higher proportion of species with declining populations (48.3% vs. 31.9%). Eupleridae, Ursidae and Felidae families have the worst conservation status. Between the 1990s and 2000s, most families suffered a considerable decline in their RLI value, the most notable being Felidae. The greatest numbers of threatened carnivore species are found in forest, shrubland and grassland habitats. East and South Asia hold great numbers of carnivore species as well as the highest proportion of threatened and declining species. Hunting and trapping of terrestrial animals, along with habitat loss (caused by deforestation and agricultural expansion), pose the main threats to the Carnivora order. Our findings indicate that, within mammals, the conservation of carnivores should be a priority, and conservation measures directed at this group should be undertaken or increased as a matter of urgency.

The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China’s Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km2) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 in 2081–2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081–2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15–79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80–100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future.

Effect of compositional fluctuation on the survival of bet-hedging species

Understanding the coexistence of diverse species in a changing environment is an important problem in community ecology. Bet-hedging is a strategy that helps species survive in such changing environments. However, studies of bet-hedging have often focused on the expected long-term growth rate of the species by itself, neglecting competition with other coexisting species. Here we study the extinction risk of a bet-hedging species in competition with others. We show that there are three contributions to the extinction risk. The first is the usual demographic fluctuation due to stochastic reproduction and selection processes in finite populations. The second, due to the fluctuation of population growth rate caused by environmental changes, may actually reduce the extinction risk for small populations. Besides those two, we reveal a third contribution, which is unique to bet-hedging species that diversify into multiple phenotypes: The phenotype composition of the population will fluctuate over time, resulting in increased extinction risk. We compare such compositional fluctuation to the demographic and environmental contributions, showing how they have different effects on the extinction risk depending on the population size, generation overlap, and environmental correlation.