Special Report On Emissions Scenarios Research Articles

Climate Change Assessment of Water Resources in Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia, Based on Dynamically-Downscaled GCM Projections Using a Regional Hydroclimate Model

AbstractClimate change’s impact on the Sabah and Sarawak water resources in the Northern sector of the Borneo Island, Malaysia, was assessed based on the dynamically-downscaled general circulation model projections (GCMPs) by means of a regional hydroclimate model (RegHCM). Four future projections under the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario from two general circulation models (GCMs) were selected for this study. The RegHCM, which is a coupled nonhydrostatic atmospheric and upscaled land surface process model, is capable of downscaling the outputs of these GCMPs (GCM projections) to the watershed scale at a 9-km grid resolution at hourly time intervals for hundreds of years—a simulation for 420 years was performed in this study. This dynamic downscaling by the RegHCM can incorporate the detailed soil and land-cover data. It is shown in this article that utilizing a methodology that incorporates a GCM, a RegHCM, and a hydrological routing model allows assessing climate chang...

Assessing temperature sensitivity of subalpine shrub phenology in semi-arid mountain regions of China

Subalpine shrubs are undergoing, or have experienced profound changes by force of recent climate anomalies, such as the alteration in temporal niche of phenophases and the dynamic interaction with ambient conditions. As cold biomes in high-altitude ecoregions, they have drawn a growing concern of the potential vulnerability to current and future climate change. In this study, we retrieved the time series (2000–2013) of satellite-based phenological transitions (the onset and offset of vegetative growth) for subalpine shrubs at five individual sites in the Qilian Mountains in northwestern China. Our goals were to identify the climatic constraints on the timing of leaf-out and leaf-fall, and to project these phenological patterns under the future climate conditions. To achieve these goals, the relationships between these regional phenological events and climate variables were investigated with univariate and multivariate time series models, and the future phenological dynamics were forecasted for two decades based on the best predictive models under the A2 and B2 of IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Our results generally revealed site-dependent phenology–climate relationships, which involved an immediate phenological response to the mean or minimum temperature in the corresponding month of occurrence, and a lagged cumulative climate effect across preceding months and seasons. Average temperature during a certain period has been demonstrated as an important limiting factor for plant growth. However, our results also provided evidence for the minimum temperature controls of the development of phenological events in subalpine shrublands, possibly due to a close association with the frequency of frost risk in spring and autumn. Under future climate conditions, an overall lengthening of the active growing season is expected at each of the study sites depending on elevation. Consequently, net carbon uptake by shrubs will benefit from the increased temperature.

Heat stress and crop yields in the Mediterranean basin: impact on expected insurance payouts

Insurance programmes have been indicated as a tool to reduce the economic risk associated with climate change, and crop growth simulation models can be used effectively to assess future trends in crop insurance payouts. This paper assesses the economic role of increasing weather extremes under future climate change on the expected insurance payouts for durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. spp. durum) over the Mediterranean basin, focusing attention on the effects of heat stresses (HSs). A crop growth simulation, Sirius Quality version 2 (SQ2), calibrated for three varieties (long, medium and short growth cycle) was applied on seven sites under present (1975–1990) and future climate conditions (2030–2050) obtained from five regional circulation models under SRES scenario A1b. The intensity of HSs at anthesis was included as reducing factor of yield originally simulated by SQ2 calculated according to a specific empirical model. Simulated yields were then fitted to the most appropriate distribution, which was used to calculate the expected payouts according to the probability of yields being below a guaranteed level. We found that the simulated crop yields were, in general, negatively skewed and that Weibull probability density function (PDF), admitting negative skewing, provided the best performances in their fitting. The simulation of HSs modified the original shape of the Weibull PDF by increasing the skewness of the distribution. The results of the insurance model indicated that the modification of crop PDFs induced by HSs led to a general increase in payouts with respect to unstressed conditions, with a marked difference between present (+11 %, on average for the selected sites) and future periods (+25 %). When compared to the present, a general decrease in payouts (−1.1 %) was observed when HSs were not included in the simulations. Conversely, HSs impact resulted in a general increase in payouts (+10.3 %) where the highest increase was detected for the long growth cycle variety (+16.6 %) and the lowest for that with short growth cycle (−1.6 %). These results emphasize the importance of the appropriate characterization of crop yield distribution, the economic implications of HSs in a risk management context and a possible strategy to cope with climate change and variability.

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in River Basins of China Projected by RegCM4

In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage (TWS) in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simula- tion revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simu- lation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all sce- narios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually oc- curring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hai River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.

Climate change scenarios generated by using GCM outputs and statistical downscaling in an arid region

Two statistical downscaling models, the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) and the Statistical Down–Scaling Model (SDSM) were used to generate future scenarios of both mean and extremes in the Tarim River basin,which were based on nine combined scenarios including three general circulation models (GCMs) (CSIRO30, ECHAM5,and GFDL21) predictor sets and three special report on emission scenarios (SRES) (SRES A1B, SRES A2, and SRESB1). Local climate change scenarios generated from statistical downscaling models was also compared with thatprojected by raw GCMs outputs. The results showed that the magnitude of changes for annual precipitation projected byraw GCMs outputs was greater than that generated by using statistical downscaling model. The difference betweenchanges of annual maximum air temperature projected by statistical downscaling model and raw GCMs outputs was notas significant as that for annual precipitation. In total, the magnitude of these increasing trends projected by bothstatistical downscaling models and raw GCMs outputs was the greatest under SRES A2 scenario and the smallest underB1 scenario, with A1B scenario in–between. Generally, the magnitude of these increasing trends in the period of 2081 to2100 was greater than that in the period of 2046 to 2065. The magnitude of standard deviation changes for dailyprecipitation projected by raw GCMs outputs was greater than that generated by statistical downscaling model undermost of combined scenarios in both periods.

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

Ecosystem CO2 and CH4 exchange in a mixed tundra and a fen within a hydrologically diverse Arctic landscape: 2. Modeled impacts of climate change

AbstractClimate change will have important effects on arctic productivity and greenhouse gas exchange. These changes were projected by the model ecosys under an Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario over the 21st century for a landscape including an upland tundra and a lowland fen at Daring Lake, NWT. Rising temperatures and precipitation caused increases in active layer depths (ALD) and eventual formation of taliks, particularly in the fen, which were attributed to heat advection from warmer and more intense precipitation and downslope flow. These changes raised net primary productivity from more rapid N mineralization and uptake, driven by more rapid heterotrophic respiration and increasing deciduous versus evergreen plant functional types. Consequently, gains in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of 29 and 10 g C m−2 yr−1 were modeled in the tundra and fen after 90 years. However, CH4 emissions modeled from the fen rose sharply from direct effects of increasing soil temperatures and greater ALD on fermenter and methanogenic populations and from indirect effects of increasing sedge growth, which hastened transfer of CH4 through porous roots to the atmosphere. After 90 years, landscape CH4 emissions increased from 1.1 to 5.2 g C m−2 yr−1 while landscape NEP increased from 34 to 46 g C m−2 yr−1. Positive feedback to radiative forcing from increases in CH4 emissions more than offset negative feedback from increases in NEP. This feedback was largely attributed to rises in CH4 emission caused by heat advection from increasing precipitation, the impacts of which require greater attention in arctic climate change studies.

Impact of climate change on some grapevine varieties grown in Peru for Pisco production

<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Aim</strong>: The Peruvian region of Ica is an important area of grapevine cultivation, mainly for the production of pisco, the flagship hard drink of Peru. The effects of a changing climate have been assessed using the recorded temperatures of a weather station together with projected climates for the 21<sup>st</sup> century generated under the A1B SRES scenario.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Methods and results</strong>: The bioclimatic indices commonly used in grapevine studies have increased in recent years and will continue to rise along the 21<sup>st</sup> century in relation to increasing temperature. In parallel, the phenology of four pisco cultivars (Quebranta, Torontel, Moscatel and Italia) has been experimentally assessed during four consecutive years, first to determine their cumulative growing degree-days and then to project them in past and future climates.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Conclusion</strong>: It appears that the cycle lengths of these cultivars have been shortened in recent years and that this tendency will continue all along the 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p><strong>Significance and impact of the study</strong>: Assessing the immediate and future impact of climate change makes it possible to identify potential crop production problems and provides information on adaptation strategies.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Abstract. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation. Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing the present (1990–2000) and future (2090–2100) climate conditions. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of a changed climate on the transport of POPs to the Arctic is moderate relative to the effect of proposed changes in emissions, which is confirmed in this study. However, the model studies do not agree on whether climate change acts to reduce or increase environmental concentrations of POPs in the Arctic, and further work is needed to resolve this matter.

Risk of Exceeding Extreme Design Storm Events under Possible Impact of Climate Change

AbstractGiven the risk of intensive storms (the probability of exceeding certain storm intensity one or more times within the project life) of central Alberta is expected to change in the future, a new risk chart is proposed which represents the nonlinear relationship between storm intensity, design project life, and the risk of intensive storms being exceeded within the project life. First, a comparison between estimated risk charts of the past (1914–1995) and the present (1984–2010) for central Alberta shows that the risk of intensive storms occurring has increased for all storm durations in recent years, and the risk had been higher for storms of large return periods (≥50 year). Given a design project life of 50 years, the average increase in risk is 9%. Second, the uncertainty associated with projecting the risk of intensive storms occurring in 2011–2100 was assessed by considering three special reports on emissions scenarios (SRESs) of four global climate models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by a re...

Potential overwintering boundary and voltinism changes in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, in China in response to global warming

The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) is a major rice insect pest in China and other Asian countries. This study assessed a potential northward shift in the overwintering boundaries and changes in the overwintering areas and voltinism of this planthopper species in China in response to global warming. Temperature data generated by 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2010 to 2099 were employed to analyze the planthopper’s overwintering boundaries and overwintering areas in conjunction with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Planthopper voltinism from 1961 to 2050 was analyzed in scenario A2 using degree-day models with projections from the regional circulation model (RCM) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). In both analyses, 1961–1990 served as the baseline period. Both the intermittent and constant overwintering boundaries were projected to shift northward; these shifts were more pronounced during later time periods and in scenarios A2 and A1B. The intermittent overwintering area was modeled to increase by 11, 24 and 44 %, and the constant overwintering area, by 66, 206 and 477 %, during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Planthopper voltinism will increase by <0.5, 0.5–1.0 and 1.0–1.4 generations in northern, central and southern China, respectively, in 2021–2050. Our results suggest that the brown planthopper will overwinter in a much larger region and will produce more generations under future climate warming scenarios. As a result, the planthopper will exert an even greater threat to China’s rice production in the future.

Future Changes of Stream Flow and Water Quality in the Byongseong Stream Watershed under Multiple Future Climate Scenarios

본 연구에서는 4개의 GCMs(General Circulation Models)에서부터 생산된 미래 기후 자료를 이용하여 유역 스케일에서 하천유량과 하천수질이 미래에 어떻게 변화하는지를 파악하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 하천 유량과 수질자료(부유물질, 총 질소)는 강수량과 기온의 함수로 표현하였으며, 대상 유역의 미래 기후 자료와의 관계식이 도출된다. 미래 기후자료는 편의보정을 통해서 계산되며, 이러한 자료는 미래의 하천 유량과 수질을 예측하기 위하여 앞서 도출된 관계식에 적용된다. 본 연구에서 사용된 GCMs는 CNCM3, CSMK3, CGHR, MPEH5으로 총 4가지이며 각각의 모델은 다시 A2, A1b, B1 SRES 시나리오로 세분화되어지므로 총 12개의 시나리오가 검토되었다. A2 시나리오에서 미래 강수량과 기온은 크게 증가하였다. 이 중 기온은 대체적으로 증가하는 경향성을 보이고 있으며, 비교적 먼 미래로 갈수록 그 증가정도가 두드러지게 나타났다. 강수량의 경우 평균적인 양은 증가하지만 편차가 크게 나타남을 확인하였다. 대부분의 시나리오에서 현재에 비해 미래의 하천 유량과 수질이 증가하는 것으로 보이고 있으나, 변동정도는 작은 것으로 나타났다. GCMs에 따른 변화를 살펴보면, MPEH5와 CGHR에서는 미래의 하천 유량과 수질이 크게 증가하는 것으로 나타났으나 그에 비해 CSMK3와 CNCM3의 증가폭은 비교적 작았다. 이러한 변동성을 기간별로 살펴보면, 현재와 비교적 가까운 미래인 2011년부터 2040년까지의 기간에서는 하천 유량과 수질은 현재와 비슷하거나 약간 감소하는 경향을 보였다. 2041년부터 2070년까지의 기간에서 하천 유량과 수질은 현재에 비해 감소하고, 비교적 먼 미래인 2071년부터 2100년까지의 기간에서는 유량과 수질의 값이 현재에 비해 커지는 경향을 보였다. 대부분의 미래 시나리오는 SRES 시나리오와 유사한 추세를 가지는 것으로 나타났지만, 시나리오 간의 미래 예측 결과는 큰 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. This study attempts to grasp future changes in watershed scale stream flow and water quality using the future climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs). To this end, stream flow and water quality data (suspended solid and total nitrogen) were expressed as functions of precipitation and temperature to establish the relationships between those values and the future climate data for the watershed. This data was calculated through a bias correction method and was then substituted into functions that predict future stream flow and water qualities. A total of four GCMs including CNCM3, CSMK3, CGHR and MPEH5 were used, each of them included A2, A1B and B1 SRES scenarios, for a total of 12 scenarios reviewed. The future precipitation and temperature of A2 scenario showed the greatest increase. Temperature had shown an increasing trend that became more prominent in the far future, while precipitation increased in average amounts but with large deviations. Although future stream flow and water quality was increased in most of the scenarios compared to those of the present, the variability was shown to be much smaller than the present. MPEH5 and CGHR showed large increases in future stream flow and water quality, while CSMK3 and CNCM3 showed smaller. The changes were reviewed by period, and the results showed similar or slightly decreased flow and water qualities values compared to the present for 2011 to 2040, decreased values for 2041 to 2070 and increased values for 2071 to 2100. There were also large differences in future predictions among the scenarios, although it could be identified that most of the future scenarios had trends similar to the SRES scenarios.

Impacts of Climate Change in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

ABSTRACTTo explore modifications in water temperature and salinity under warmer climate change conditions, we performed simulations from 1970 to 2069 with the CANadian Océan PArallélisé (CANOPA) model for the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Scotian Shelf. The surface fields to drive CANOPA were provided by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), driven by the outputs from the third-generation Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B climate change scenario. The sea-ice concentration and volume simulated by CANOPA are shown to have patterns consistent with those seen in observations; CANOPA is also shown to simulate sea surface temperature (SST) well. Although CANOPA can simulate the observed vertical structure of water temperature and salinity, it tends to underestimate the cold intermediate layer and overestimate water salinity in the central Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL). In terms of the possible future climate, CANOPA simulations suggest that the GSL will be largely ice free in January, with ice volume in March steadily decreasing from about 80 km3 in the 1980s to near zero by the late 2060s. On average, the GSL water will become warmer and fresher over this time period. In January, maximum SST increases occur near eastern Cabot Strait, with amplitudes of about 1.5°–2.5°C, corresponding to reduced sea ice in that area, and there is no notable change along the western and northern coasts of the GSL. In July, maximum SST increases occur over the western GSL corresponding to the largest increases in surface air temperature in the region. The maximum decreases in surface salinity also occur near western coastal areas and the Scotian Shelf, whereas reductions in the eastern GSL are relatively weak. Finally, compared with the present climate, the cold intermediate layer is significantly weaker in 2040–2069 than in 1980–2009.

Possible impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Oldman (ORB), Bow, (BRB) and Red Deer (RRB) River Basins of southern Alberta, Canada, was assessed using six extreme climate indices for the rainy period of May–August (MJJA), and 9-km resolution Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B climate scenarios of four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model, MM5. R95p of the three study sites showed an increase of 4% for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 10% for the 2080s (2071–2100) period, whereas R99p increased by 39% (2050s) and 42% (2080s) which suggest a projected increase in the volume of precipitation expected in future very wet and particularly extremely wet days. Similarly, R20mm, P30yr, RX1day and RX5day are also projected to increase by about 15% by the mid- and late 21st century in the three study sites. However, compared to BRB and RRB, ORB located in the southernmost part of the study site is projected to undergo a relatively higher increase in both temperature and precipitation intensity, which is assessed in terms of indices such as P30yr, RX1day and RX5day. On the other hand, RRB and BRB are projected to experience higher increase in R20mm, which suggest a relatively higher increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days projected for these two basins. Overall, these results suggest that in the 2050s and 2080s, southern Alberta will be expected to experience more frequent and severe intensive storm events in the MJJA season that could potentially increase the risk of future flooding in this region.

Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

Summary In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains. Better understanding of potential hydrologic response to climate and land use changes in these basins might be crucial for national and transnational water management.

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya

Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed) would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET) port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028). The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.

Macro-Economic Impact Assessment of Future Changes in European Marine Ecosystem Services

The present research has been developed within the EU FP7 VECTORS project. The main scope of the project (2011-2015) has been to evaluate, from a multilateral perspective, drivers, pressures and vectors of changes in marine life of three main European seas (Baltic, Western Mediterranean, North), the mechanisms by which they do so and the impacts that they have on ecosystem structures and functioning as well as on economic activities and wellbeing.This paper describes the methodology, data elaboration and main results of a modelling exercise aiming to assess the economic effect of future changes in the EU marine ecosystem in the medium term (2030). We focus on those changes potentially affecting the fishing and the tourism sectors in two different IPCC SRES scenarios, the A2 and B1, varying in the future trends of population, GDP, prices, as well as the overall impact on environment. Sector-specific economic impacts are channeled through increases in fishing effort, due to lower availability of commercial fish species, and decrease in tourism demand following deterioration of marine ecosystem quality.Impacts on EU coastal countries Gross Domestic Product are negative and larger when the tourism sector is affected. This is explained by the much higher contribution of tourism than fishery in the production of value added. Negative impacts are also larger in the A2 than in the B1 scenario. The largest GDP losses due to adverse impacts on fishery are experienced by Spain (-0.13%), those related to tourism by Italy (almost -1%). Percent changes in sectoral production are notably larger than GDP ones: the largest contraction in fish sector production occurs in France (-24.7%). Notable decrease in coastal tourism demand occurs in Spain and the Netherlands. In general the Western Mediterranean is the most adversely affected region, whereas the Baltic Sea denotes a particular vulnerability to losses in tourism value added compared to the BAU. North Sea countries experience smaller losses.

Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period

This work was carried out as part of the project KLIMAT Impact of climate change on the society, the environment and the economy (changes, effects and ways of limiting them, conclusions for science and engineering practice and economic planning). No POIG.01.03.01- 14-011/08 in frames of the Operational Programme Innovative Economy, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund. Authors thank anonymous reviewers for valuable comments.

Understanding climate change: science, policy, and practice

1. Climate Change in the Public Sphere 1.1. Communicating about climate change 1.2. The state of the science 1.3. Responding to climate change: mitigation and adaptation 1.4. The state of the policy 1.4.1. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol 1.4.2. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio, and Rio +20) 1.4.3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1.5. The scale of the challenge: accelerating action on climate change 1.6. Roadmap to the book 2. Basic System Dynamics 2.1. What's a system? 2.1.1. System parts and interactions 2.1.2. Stocks and flows 2.1.3. Feedbacks 2.1.4. Lags 2.1.5. Function or purpose 2.2. Earth's Climate System: The parts and interconnections 2.2.1. Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Biosphere, Geosphere, and Anthroposphere 2.2.2. The Ins and Out of Earth's Energy Budget 3. Climate controls: Energy from the Sun 3.1. Incoming Solar Radiation 3.1.1. Blackbody radiation: the Sun versus Earth 3.1.2. Our place in space: the Goldilocks planet 3.2. Natural Variability 3.2.1. 4.5 billion years of solar energy 3.2.2. Orbital controls: baseline variability in the past million years 3.2.3. Sunspots: how big a deal? 3.3. Mitigation strategies and policy tools 4. Climate Controls: Earth's Reflectivity 4.1. Natural Variability 4.1.1. At Earth's surface: Ice, water, and vegetation 4.1.2. In the atmosphere: Aerosols and clouds 4.2. Anthropogenic Variability 4.2.1. Land-use changes 4.2.2. Anthropogenic Aerosols 4.3. Mitigation strategies and policy tools 5. Climate Controls: The Greenhouse effect 5.1. How does the greenhouse effect work? 5.1.1. Characteristics of a good greenhouse gas 5.1.2. Energy flows in a greenhouse world 5.2. The unperturbed carbon cycle and natural greenhouse variability 5.2.1. Carbon stocks and flows 5.2.2. Timescales of natural greenhouse variability 5.2.3. Feedbacks involving the greenhouse effect 5.3. Anthropogenic interference 5.3.1. Perturbed stocks, flows, and chemical fingerprints 5.3.2. Cumulative carbon emissions: a budget 6. The Core of Climate Change Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Transforming the Energy System 6.1. Introduction to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 6.2. The Global Energy System 6.3. Mitigation Strategies 6.3.1. Demand-side mitigation: energy efficiency and conservation 6.3.2. Supply-side mitigation 6.3.3. Carbon capture and storage 6.4. Fostering accelerated and transformative mitigation 7. Climate Models 7.1. Climate Model Basics 7.1.1. Physical Principles 7.1.2. The Role of Observations 7.1.3. Time and Space 7.1.4. Parameterization 7.1.5. Testing climate models 7.2. Types of climate models 7.2.1. Energy Balance Models 7.2.2. Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity 7.2.3. General Circulation Models 7.2.4. Regional Climate Models 7.2.5. Integrated Assessment Models 7.3. Certainties and Uncertainties 8. Future Climate: Emissions, climate, and what we do about it 8.1. Emissions scenarios SRES scenario 'families' and storylines 8.1.1. Post-SRES and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.1.2. 8.2. Global Climate in 2100 Temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events 8.2.1. Uncertainty 8.2.2. 8.3. Regional forecasting 8.4. Backcasting 8.5. Scale of the challenge: Transforming emissions pathways 9. Climate Change Impacts on Natural Systems 9.1. Observed Impacts Impacts on Land 9.1.1. Impacts in the Oceans 9.1.2. 9.2. Adaptation in Natural Systems 9.3. Policy Tools and Progress International tools 9.3.1. National and sub-national tools 9.3.2. 9.4. Conclusions 10. Climate Change Impacts on Human Systems 10.1. Introduction 10.2. Key concepts in climate change impacts and adaptation 10.3. Observed and Projected Impacts 10.3.1. Climate change impacts on food and water 10.3.2. Climate change impacts on cities and infrastructure 10.3.3. Equity implications: Health, culture, and global distribution of wealth 10.4. Adaptation in human systems 10.5. Policy Tools and Progress 10.5.1. Policy tools for adaptation 10.5.2. International and national adaptation 10.5.3. Sub-national adaptation 10.5.4. Social movements and human behavior change: the root of the adaptation conundrum 11. The Frontier: Innovative Action on Climate Change 11.1. Integrating Adaptation and Mitigation: Pursuing Sustainability 11.2. What Road will we choose? The ethics of geoengineering 11.3. Transformative change: reorienting development paths to yield a sustainable future 11.4. Conclusions and future directions