Spatiotemporal Trends Research Articles

Multiscale levels CO2 decouple reinforcement in China.

Decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions is imperative for China. Meanwhile, establishing a consistent and comprehensive decoupling inventory that includes national (N), regional and provincial (RP), and city and county (CC) levels is essential for further policy formulation. This research aims to investigate the decoupling status using the "N-RP-CC" approach while considering changes in decoupling trends at the different levels. A combination of the Tapio decoupling model and cluster analysis is employed to study the decoupling's spatiotemporal characteristics and trends. The study first calculates the decoupling value for "national, 7; regions, 30; provinces, 1501 CCs" in China, 2006-2017. The results show that there continues to be an improvement in the decoupling trend at the national level. Conversely, the regional scale exhibits a more vulnerable decoupling trend compared to the national level, with weak and extended negative decoupling observed in northeastern and northern China. Moreover, provincial heterogeneities are increasingly evident, with poor decoupling statuses appearing in Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Xinjiang, as well as many central provinces. Additionally, although more than half of CCs exhibit weak decoupling during most years, seven different states of decoupling were also identified during the time frame. These findings further indicate that spatiotemporal heterogeneities extend beyond RP scales within CCs. Taking the Yangtze River as a boundary line reveals a severe situation in northern areas along with rapid development trends observed in southern regions. Finally, we clustered 1414 CCs based on their industrial proportions for 2017 which further highlights increasingly prominent heterogeneities that should be carefully considered. Based on these findings, policy recommendations such as spatial organization and optimization and technique investment are proposed to achieve CO2 emission decoupling under the N-RP-CC levels.

Application of the ITA approach to analyze spatio-temporal trends in monthly maximum rainfall categories in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon, Vietnam

This study aims to investigate the trend behavior of monthly maximum in daily rainfall categories in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin located in central Vietnam. Daily maximum rainfall series from 12 rainfall stations for the period 1979–2018 were utilized to characterize six categories of the intensity of daily maximum rainfall: light (0–4 mm/day, category A), mild-moderate (4–16 mm/day, category B), moderate-heavy (16–32 mm/day, category C1), heavy (32–64 mm/day, category C2), heavy-torrential (64–128 mm/day, category D1), and torrential (≥ 128 mm/day, category D2). The new approach of the Innovative Trends Analysis was then applied to the six classified categories. The results revealed that category B had a dominant increasing trend (32% of rain events) for all the stations in January (5.85%) and February (3.44%). In March and April, category A was dominant with 45% and 20%, respectively. In July, category C1 was dominant with 25%, while in August and September, category C2 prevailed over all stations with 45% (all stations) and 20%, respectively. The categories D1 and D2 were observed at all stations in December and November, with 26% and 31% of events, respectively. These results indicate an increasing trend in the categories B, C1, C2, and D1.

Quantifying climate variation and associated regional air pollution in southern India using Google Earth Engine

Climate change and regional air pollution have had significant proportional coherence and are collectively hazardous for the regional ecosystem. To conduct this present investigation, we obtained high-resolution remotely sensed datasets from 2001 to 2022. To estimate climate variation, we utilized Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data Version 2.0 (CHIRPS) and Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST). Additionally, we used Sentinel-5P datasets to collect spatio-temporal information for regional CO (Carbon Monoxide), NO2 (Nitrogen Dioxide), SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide), and UV Aerosol index for Coimbatore city. Numerous non-parametric and descriptive statistical applications were then employed to check the spatial integrity of satellite data products and spatio-temporal trends using Google Earth Engine algorithms. The study reveals most of the southern parts of Coimbatore city witnessed increased LST (0.10 °C/year) together with decreased rainfall (21.5 mm/year). Moreover, regional concentration of air pollutants exhibits spatio-temporal variability at annual and seasonal scales, where maximum engrossment is occupied by CO during the pre-monsoon and monsoon season. However, other pollutants are also dominant in the northern parts of the city, whereas NO2 and absorbing Aerosol during pre-monsoon season experienced significant increase throughout the years. Understanding the fluctuations in air pollution levels across different weather situations might help in developing targeted pollution reduction methods.

Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Temperature Events Along the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Transportation Corridor From 1981 to 2019 Based on Estimated Near‐Surface Air Temperature

AbstractThe intensification of global warming leads to the increased frequency of extreme temperature events. Many studies have reported on numerous regions facing extreme hot and cold temperatures to some degree. In this study, the daily maximum, minimum and mean near‐surface air temperatures were estimated to explore the detailed spatial trends of extreme temperature events along the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Transportation Corridor (QTPTC). Sixteen extreme temperature indices were used to represent extreme temperature events, and the Mann‐Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimation method were employed to explore the spatiotemporal trends of extreme temperatures along the QTPTC during 1981–2019. The possible factors that affect the trends of extreme temperature events were also discussed, indicating that: (a) There was an exacerbation of extreme hot events, while the prevalence of extreme cold events weakened along the QTPTC. This was in accordance with the trend of global warming. (b) The trends of extreme temperature indices based on daily minimum temperature were stronger than those based on daily maximum temperature in most areas, except for the eastern region. Furthermore, as altitude increased, the amplitude of warming intensified. (c) Unlike the trend in most areas, the intensified warming trend occurred in the low‐altitude areas in the eastern region where there are more human activities and rapid urbanization, and the daily maximum temperature trend was more severe there. The results can provide references for policymakers to formulate corresponding adaptation strategies, addressing the impacts of extreme temperature events on transportation facilities with significant elevation differences.

Influence of air pollution on NSTEMI incidence and acute coronary syndrome mortality - the 10-year community-level analysis including 80 million patient-years. EP-PARTICLES study

Abstract Introduction During the last years, air pollution has emerged as an important modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. Most research focused on heavy-polluted agglomerations and big cities, neglecting its influence on cardiovascular health in smaller cities and villages. Purpose The study aimed to assess the spatio-temporal trends and the influence of air pollution on the non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) incidence and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) mortality in an urban and rural environment. Moreover, the study aimed to investigate whether there is a connection between the influence of air pollution on hospitalization and cause-specific mortality. Methods The analysis included data on 7 main air pollutants in 709 communities in Eastern Poland in 2011-2020. Mortality data were obtained from National Health Fund and daily air pollution concentrations for each community were obtained from National Public Health Institute. Time-stratified panel data Poisson regression techniques were used. The influence of each air pollutant was analysed at a single-day lag (0-6 days) and multi-day lag (0-1, 0-6, 0-30 days) and presented as an odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) for an increase in 10 μg/m3. Results Incidence of NSTEMI was associated with exposition to benzo-a-pyrene (BaP) on all analysed lag patterns (OR 1.121, 95% CI 1.075-1.168 for lag 0, OR 1.241, 95% CI 1.169-1.317 for lag 0-30) and to particulate matter with a diameter of <10 and <2.5 μm (PM10, PM2.5), CO and NO2 on the most of analysed lag patterns (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.005-1.015 for PM10 on lag 0, OR 1.013, 95% CI 1.007-1.02 for PM2.5 on lag 0, OR 1.017, OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.003 for CO on lag 0, 95% CI 1.007-1.028 for NO2 on lag 0). O3 and SO2 had a protective influence on NSTEMI incidence on longer lags (OR 0.984, 95% CI 0.977-0.992 for O3 on lag 0-30, OR 0.978, 95% CI 0.963-0.993 for SO2 on lag 5) Mortality due to the ACS was associated with an increase in NO2 and CO concentrations on all lag patterns (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04 for NO2 on lag 0, OR 1.089, 95% CI 1.068-1.11 for NO2 on lag 0-30, OR 1.003, 95% CI 1.002-1.004 for CO on lag 0, OR 1.089, 95% CI 1.068-1.11 for CO on lag 0-30). PMs concentrations had a protective effect on ACS mortality on all lag patterns (OR 0.971, 95% CI 0.966-0.976 for PM10 on lag 0, OR 0.964, 95% CI 0.958-0.971 for PM2.5 on lag 0). Conclusions An increase in most of the major air pollutants concentrations have an influence on NSTEMI incidence. Different lag patterns for air pollutants suggest various mechanisms of detrimental effect. Cause-specific mortality analysis showed the results mostly opposite to incidence analysis. It suggests that a high rate of garbage codes may prevent high-quality population analysis focusing on cause-specific mortality. The development of air quality monitoring stations and the correct use of ICD-10 diagnoses may be crucial in drawing important conclusions from environmental studies.

Spatiotemporal trends in PM2.5 chemical composition in the conterminous U.S. during 2006–2020

The spatiotemporal variations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) chemical composition have changed over time in the U.S. and increasing evidence indicated differential toxicity of PM2.5 chemical composition. Thus, comprehensive explanation of PM2.5-related adverse health impacts in the U.S. necessitated a detailed analysis of spatiotemporal trends of PM2.5 chemical composition. This research aims to analyze the changes in concentrations of PM2.5 and its chemical composition in spatial and temporal scales in the conterminous U.S. The PM2.5 mass concentration and chemical speciation data were downloaded from U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) (2006–2020) to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of PM2.5 and its chemical components. The results indicated that national annual average PM2.5 concentration was significantly reduced from 11.38 ± 2.94 μg m−3 in 2006 to 8.20 ± 2.76 μg m−3 in 2020 with an average reduction of 0.21 μg m−3yr−1, mainly attributed to inorganic PM2.5 reductions (i.e., ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3−), and sulfate (SO42−)) and the average reductions were 0.09 μg m−3yr−1, 0.02 μg m−3yr−1, and 0.06 μg m−3yr−1, respectively. The largest air quality improvements occurred in areas with the worst baseline air quality. Moreover, observed spikes in PM2.5 in California in 2020 were due to higher concentrations of organic matter (OM) and elemental carbon (EC) caused by 2020 wildfires. Furthermore, while levels of SO42−, NO3−, and NH4+ almost levelled off in recent years, further air quality improvements may require targeting carbonaceous species. The heavily polluted days occurred less frequently in recent years and primary organic carbon (OC) accounted for a larger portion of OC in winter than in summer because of the relatively reduced formation rate of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Our analysis revealed the spatial and temporal trends of various PM2.5 chemical composition in the conterminous U.S. and provided insights into source contributions, atmospheric chemical conditions, and development of future emissions control strategies.

Spatiotemporal trends of urban-induced land use and land cover change and implications on catchment surface imperviousness

Urbanization, changes in land use and land cover (LULC), and an increase in population collectively have significant impacts on urban catchments. However, a vast majority of LULC studies have been conducted using readily available satellite imagery, which often presents limitations due to its coarse spatial resolution. Such imagery fails to accurately depict the surface characteristics and diverse spectrum of LULC classifications contained within a single pixel. This study focused on the highly urbanized Dry Creek catchment in Adelaide, South Australia and aimed to determine the impact of urbanization on spatiotemporal changes in LULC and its implications for the land surface condition of the catchment. Very high spatial resolution imagery was utilized to examine changes in LULC over the past four decades. Support Vector Machine-learning-based image classification was utilized to classify and identify the changes in LULC over the study area. The classification accuracy showed strong agreement, with a kappa value greater than 0.8. The findings of this analysis showed that extensive urban development, which expanded the built-up area by 34 km2, were responsible for the decline in grass cover by 43.1 km2 over the last 40 years (1979–2019). Moreover, built-up areas, plantation, and water features, in contrast to grass cover, have demonstrated an increasing trend during the study period. The overall urban expansion over the study period was 136.6%. Urbanization intensified impervious area coverage, increasing the runoff coefficient, equivalent impervious area, and curve number by 60.6%, 60.6%, and 7.9%, respectively, while decreasing the retention capacity by 38.6%. These modifications suggest a potential variability in catchment surface runoff, prompting the need for further research to understand the surface runoff changes brought by the changes in LULC resulting from urbanization. The findings of this study can be used for land use planning and flood management.

Impacts of artificial dams on terrestrial water storage changes and the Earth's elastic load response during 1950–2016: A case study of medium and large reservoirs in Chinese mainland

The construction of dams for intercepting and storing water has altered surface water distributions, land-sea water exchanges, and the load response of the solid Earth. The lack of accurate estimation of reservoir properties through the land surface and hydrological models can lead to water storage simulation and extraction errors. This impact is particularly evident in many artificial reservoirs in China. The study aims to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of water storage in medium and large reservoirs (MLRs) in Chinese mainland during 1950–2016, and to investigate the gravity, displacement, and strain effects induced by the reservoir mass concentration using the load elasticity theory. In addition, the impoundment contributions of MLRs to the relative sea level changes were assessed using a sea-level equation. The results show impoundment increases in the MLRs during 1950–2016, particularly in the Yangtze River (Changjiang) and southern basins, causing significant elastic load effects in the surrounding areas of the reservoirs and increasing the relative sea level in China's offshore. However, long-term groundwater estimation trends are overestimated and underestimated in the Yangtze River and southwestern basins, respectively, due to the neglect of the MLRs impacts or the uncertainty of the hydrological model's output (e.g., soil moisture, etc.). The construction of MLRs may reduce the water mass input from land to the ocean, thus slowing global sea level rise. The results of the impact of human activities on the regional water cycle provide important references and data support for improving the integration of hydrological models, evaluating Earth's viscoelastic responses under long-term reservoir storage, enhancing in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements, and identifying the main factors driving sea level changes.

Bottom fishing beyond trawling. Spatio-temporal trends of mobile and static bottom fisheries on benthic habitats

The effective implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and formulation of spatial management policies rely heavily on a good understanding of the extent, distribution and intensity of human pressures and their overlap with benthic habitats. However, little research has quantified the pressure and impact on the seabed of bottom contact gears other than trawling. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of fishing pressure of bottom-contact gear, including mobile and static gears, and asseses its relative importance within each benthic habitat. To achieve this, a set of pressure indicators was calculated using vessel monitoring system information from the Bay of Biscay for 2009–2020. Nested General Linear Models were conducted to assess the temporal fluctuation of fishing activities. While trawlers exhibited wider and higher levels of fishing intensity over sedimentary habitats, set gillnet and set longliners were distributed among more sensitive habitats, such as biogenic reef habitats. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in fishing effort in recent years along Offshore circalittoral habitats, particularly with respect bottom trawling, in contrast to increasing fishing intensity in deeper areas. These results emphasize that from a conservation perspective and MSFD implementation, there is a need to quantitatively analyze the fishing footprint of all fishing gears, including static gears in the regional assessments, and the necessity to progress in adapting impact indicators to these fishing activities. The findings are discussed based on the potential impacts of policies such as the MSFD and can assist managers in developing spatial protection measures.

The unusual stubble burning season of 2020 in northern India: a satellite perspective

ABSTRACT We analysed nine years (2012–2019) of fire observations from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP satellite to assess the post-monsoon crop stubble burning activities over northern India. The 2020 fire season (September-November) was analysed extensively, and spatiotemporal trends were examined. Our analysis indicates that about 60% of post-monsoon fires occurred in the state of Punjab, followed by Madhya Pradesh (11%), Haryana (4%), and Uttar Pradesh (3%). The year 2020 saw the greatest fire activity in Punjab and across the country since 2016. Over the nine years, Punjab did not show any systematic trends in fire activities, whereas Haryana and Madhya Pradesh demonstrated an overall decreasing (45% lower in 2020 compared to the 2012–2019 mean) and increasing (185% more in 2020 compared to 2012–2019 mean) trends, respectively. The high fire occurance in the Punjab are related to high percentage of crop area with specific variety of rice, which produces high straw load and mature in shorter time. The increase in Madhya Pradesh is directly related to an increase in rice crop planting area over the years, whereas the decrease in Haryana is related to changes in crop residue management. The uncertainty analysis in this paper shows that over a given region, day-to-day variability in fire counts can have sampling biases due to changing satellite viewing geometry. Furthermore, long-term trends can also be impacted by the reduced sampling of satellite fire detections under cloudy conditions. However, large scale spatiotemporal analysis of fires in this area provides crucial and well sought-after information for crop fire control and air quality management in north India. The district level analysis for the four states signifies the critical information that satellites can provide for identifying hotspots and planning regionally focused mitigation strategies to curb pollution from crop burning fires.

Monitoring land subsidence induced by tectonic activity and groundwater extraction in the eastern Gediz River Basin (Türkiye) using Sentinel-1 observations

Alaşehir-Sarıgöl sub-basin (ASSB) in Türkiye faces severe water stress mainly due to intensive agricultural irrigation. This has led to declining groundwater levels, aquifer compaction, and subsequent land subsidence. This study aims to evaluate the roles of tectonic activity and groundwater withdrawal in land-subsidence and investigate additional factors like faults and soft soil thickness. The P-SBAS algorithm was applied, using 98 and 123 Sentinel-1 SAR images in ascending and descending orbits, respectively, from 2016 to 2020. Independent Component Analysis separated long-term displacements from seasonal variations in the InSAR time series data. InSAR analysis showed displacement rates up to −6.40 cm/year. Results reveal a direct correlation between InSAR displacement and soft soil thickness, highlighting aquitard layer compaction due to groundwater withdrawal and piezometric head depletion as the primary causes of land subsidence. It was not possible to disentangle the multi-year displacements with different rates, i.e., to isolate the displacements caused by tectonic activity from displacements due to the soft soil compaction induced by groundwater withdrawal. Nonetheless, the analysis identified two spatiotemporal displacement trends: one linked to long-term, linear plastic compaction of the aquitard due to groundwater withdrawal and the other involving long-term displacements with seasonal rebounds caused by yearly water level fluctuations.

Spatio-temporal shifts in British wild bees in response to changing climate.

Climate plays a major role in determining where species occur, and when they are active throughout the year. In the face of a changing climate, many species are shifting their ranges poleward. Many species are also shifting their emergence phenology. Wild bees in Great Britain are susceptible to changes in climatic conditions but little is known about historic or potential future spatio-temporal trends of many species. This study utilized a sliding window approach to assess the impacts of climate on bee emergence dates, estimating the best temperature window for predicting emergence dates for 88 species of wild bees. Using a 'middle-of-the-road' (RCP 4.5) and 'worst-case' (RCP 8.5) climate scenario for the period 2070-2079, predictions of future emergence dates were made. In general, the best predicting climate window occurred in the 0-3 months preceding emergence. Across the 40 species that showed a shift in emergence dates in response to a climate window, the mean advance was 13.4 days under RCP 4.5 and 24.9 days under RCP 8.5. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to predict suitable climate envelopes under historic (1980-1989), current (2010-2019) and future (2070-2079 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) climate conditions. These models predict that the climate envelope for 92% of studied species has increased since the 1980s, and for 97% and 93% of species under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively, this is predicted to continue, due to extension of the northern range boundary. While any range changes will be moderated by habitat availability, it highlights that Great Britain will likely experience northward shifts of bee populations in the future. By combining spatial and temporal trends, this work provides an important step towards informing conservation measures suitable for future climates, directing how interventions can be provided in the right place at the right time.

Spatiotemporal multiscale diagnosis model to proactively respond to the multi‐country monkeypox virus outbreak in 2022

AbstractThis research analyzes the spatiotemporal trend of 23,121 monkeypox virus cases in the multi‐country outbreak that affected 82 countries from January 2022 to July 2022. The spatiotemporal trends analysis is developed using open data and GIS to model 3D bins and emerging hot spots globally (data by country) and nationally (data by region) for hardest hit countries, like the USA and Spain. The implemented methodology distinguishes between problem areas —as significant hot spots— and countries with no pattern. Results show consecutive hot spot patterns in Western Europe and high location quotients in North America. Factually, the countries with consecutive patterns record 16,494 cases, that is, 71.34% of the cases, where 7.63% of the world population live. At the national level, in the analysis of the USA and Spain, the results reveal regional differences with significative hot spots in California and on the East Coast of the USA and the Mediterranean coast of Spain. The proposed methodology facilitates the monitoring of the spatiotemporal evolution of monkeypox cases and is scalable and replicable using non‐arbitrary and statistical parameters. The findings indicate problematic zones in real‐time, enabling policymakers to develop focused interventions and proactive strategies to mitigate the future risk of monkeypox.

Global trends in carbon sequestration and oxygen release: From the past to the future

Clarifying the spatiotemporal changes and trends of carbon sequestration and oxygen release (COtotal) is crucial for establishing policy objectives aimed at achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, extant studies have predominantly focused on carbon sequestration, with limited attention to the concurrent oxygen release resulting from the same ecological processes, particularly on a global scale. Here, we revealed the historical and prospective trajectories of COtotal in global terrestrial ecosystems by coupling multiple methods. Results show that global COtotal mainly increased from 2000 to 2020 and is expected to continue rising in the short term. In parallel, 20.91 % of global regions are anticipated to experience a continued decrease in COtotal in the future, while 11.78 % is projected to shift from shift from increasing to decreasing. Proactive and strategic policy interventions in land use and management are imperative in ameliorating the burgeoning global change quandary.

Studying the economic burden of premature mortality related to PM2.5 and O3 exposure in Greece between 2004 and 2019

The detrimental direct effects of air pollution on public health have been well-determined; however, of relevant importance are also the indirect effects on the economy. Based on the value of statistical life (VSLs) and the willingness to pay (WTP) method, we estimated the economic cost resulting from premature mortality associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone (O3) exposure across Greece during 2004–2019, under a constant and a changing income elasticity scenario. The spatiotemporal trends of the economic burden were also investigated. The total economic burden attributable to premature mortality due to exposure to PM2.5 and O3 for the 16-year period was estimated at € 66.34 billion under the constant scenario and at € 273.65 billion under the changing scenario. A dramatic decline of the mortality cost was observed from 2009 to 2019 in the changing scenario, reflecting various socio-economic factors and income losses, as opposed to a less profound downward trend under the constant scenario, where the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) variances were not taken into account. During the study period, PM2.5 contributed the most to the economic loss, while the contribution of O3 was much less. The spatiotemporal patterns observed here may prove an effective means of communicating these trends to policy-makers and may feed the design of strategies for protecting public health and safeguarding the economic growth.

Conservation Effectiveness Assessment of the Three Northern Protection Forest Project Area

The Three-North Shelterbelt Project is the largest ecological engineering initiative in China to date, distinguished by its immense scale, extended construction period, and widespread benefits for the population. The gross ecosystem product (GEP) serves as a crucial indicator for assessing ecological benefits. This study focuses on the Three Northern Protection Forest Project Area, utilizing GEP calculations for the years 2000 to 2020. This study evaluates variations in the production values of different ecosystem services to reflect the ecological conservation benefits of the restoration project. Additionally, it analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and trends of the GEP calculations, offering data references and decision support for the enduring efficacy of ecological restoration projects. The findings are as follows. (i) Between 2000 and 2020, the GEP of the Three-North region exhibited significant growth with continuous enhancement of various ecosystem service functions; the most substantial rate of change was observed in the water conservation function, followed by carbon sequestration and oxygen release, soil retention, windbreak and sand fixation, flood regulation, and environmental purification functions. (ii) The per-unit area value of different ecosystem types generally increased; the forest ecosystem displayed the largest growth rate at 61.18%, followed by shrubland ecosystems at 49.84%. (iii) The spatial distribution of ecosystem service in the Three-North region displayed a clustering trend alongside notable spatial heterogeneity. High-high clustering zones were identified in areas such as the Tianshan Mountains, Altai Mountains, Qilian Mountains, and Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains. Conversely, low-low clustering areas were scattered, forming patchy distributions in regions like the Tarim Basin, northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Hexi Corridor. This study, by analyzing the gross ecosystem product of the Three-North Shelterbelt Project region, unveils the spatial distribution characteristics, trends, and variations in ecosystem service values over the past two decades. It provides data support and decision guidance for the long-term efficacy of future ecological conservation and restoration projects. This study incorporates the GEP accounting method into the assessment of the effectiveness of major conservation projects. Compared to the traditional methods of effectiveness assessment, this represents a significant exploration and innovation.

1.B. Workshop: Exploring vaccine hesitancy in Europe: understanding complexities and determinants

Abstract Vaccination is a cornerstone of public health, yet vaccine hesitancy continues to pose significant challenges in Europe, impacting vaccination rates and, consequently, infectious disease control. Vaccine hesitancy has been defined as “the delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability of vaccination services” and as a complex and context-specific phenomenon that varies across time, place, and vaccines. Unpacking the complexity and underlying issues that drive vaccine hesitancy across different populations and settings might prove crucial to address this issue effectively. For this reason, this workshop aims to provide information on the spatiotemporal magnitude, trends and patterns of vaccine hesitancy and its determinants in different European populations and settings. It will do that by delving into the socioeconomic, political, and commercial factors that influence vaccine hesitancy in Western and Eastern Europe, among migrants and refugees, and ethnic minorities, as well as healthcare workers. By exploring these aspects from various perspectives, participants will gain a comprehensive understanding of the complexities of vaccine hesitancy/acceptance and the importance of trust and engagement in promoting public health. The workshop will consist of five presentations, each focusing on a specific aspect of vaccine hesitancy, to provide insights into the multifaceted nature of the problem. The cohesive structure, and a moderated Q&A session, will facilitate meaningful discussions and collaboration, ultimately supporting international, intergenerational, and multi-professional exchange of information that may lead to the development of more evidence-informed strategies to tackle vaccine hesitancy. Key messages • Comprehending vaccine hesitancy complexities is vital for crafting evidence-based interventions, enhancing public health in Europe. • Address trust, engagement, and socio-political factors to combat vaccine hesitancy, boost coverage, and prep for future pandemics in Europe.

How to Simulate Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation? A Forest Carbon Sequestration Model across a Typical Mountain City in China

Due to a series of human activities like deforestation and land degradation, the concentration of greenhouse gases has risen significantly. Forest vegetation is an important part of forest ecosystems with high carbon sequestration potential. Estimates of the carbon sequestration rate of forest vegetation in various provinces and districts are helpful to the regional and global Carbon cycle. How to build an effective carbon sequestration potential model and reveal the spatiotemporal evolution trend and driving factors of carbon sequestration potential is an urgent challenge to be solved in carbon cycle simulation and prediction research. This study characterized the carbon sequestration status of forest vegetation using the modified CASA (Carnegie-Ames Stanford Approach) model and estimated the carbon sequestration potential from 2010 to 2060 using the FCS (Forest Carbon Sequestration) model combined with forest age and biomass under the four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, then proposes natural, social, and economic perspectives. This study found that the average NPP of the forest vegetation in Chongqing from 2000 to 2020 was 797.95 g C/m2, and the carbon storage by 2060 was 269.94 Tg C. The carbon sequestration rate varied between <0.01 Tg C/a and 0.20 Tg C/a in various districts and counties. Over time, forest growth gradually slowed, and carbon sequestration rates also decreased. Under the four future climate scenarios, the SSP5-8.5 pathway had the highest carbon sequestration rate. Natural factors had the greatest influence on changes in carbon sequestration rate. This result provides data support and scientific reference for the planning and control of forests and the enhancement of carbon sequestration capacity in Chongqing.

Study on association factors of intestinal infectious diseases based-Bayesian spatio-temporal model

BackgroundIntestinal infectious diseases (IIDs) are a significant public health issue in China, and the incidence and distribution of IIDs vary greatly by region and are affected by various factors. This study aims to describe the spatio-temporal trends of IIDs in the Chinese mainland and investigate the association between socioeconomic and meteorological factors with IIDs.MethodsIn this study, IIDs in mainland China from 2006 to 2017 was analyzed using data obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatio-temporal mapping techniques was employed to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution of IIDs. Additionally, mean center and standard deviational ellipse analyses were utilized to examine the spatial trends of IIDs. To investigate the potential associations between IIDs and meteorological and socioeconomic variables, spatiotemporal zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models was employed within a Bayesian framework.ResultsDuring the study period, the occurrence of most IIDs has dramatically reduced, with uneven reductions in different diseases. Significant regional differences were found among IIDs and influential factors. Overall, the access rate to harmless sanitary toilets (ARHST) was positively associated with the risk of cholera (RR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.08-2.83), bacillary dysentery (RR: 1.32, 95%CI: 1.06-1.63), and other intestinal infectious diseases (RR: 1.88, 95%CI: 1.52-2.36), and negatively associated with typhoid fever (RR: 0.66, 95%CI: 0.51-0.92), paratyphoid fever (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.55-0.92). Urbanization is only associated with hepatitis E (RR: 2.48, 95%CI: 1.12-5.72). And GDP was negatively correlated with paratyphoid fever (RR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.70-0.97), and bacillary dysentery (RR: 0.77, 95%CI: 0.68-0.88), and hepatitis A (RR: 0.84, 95%CI: 0.73-0.97). Humidity showed positive correlation with some IIDs except for amoebic dysentery (RR: 1.64, 95%CI: 1.23-2.17), while wind speed showed a negative correlation with most IIDs. High precipitation was associated with an increased risk of typhoid fever (RR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.09-2.13), and high temperature was associated with an increased risk of typhoid fever (RR: 2.82, 95%CI: 2.06-3.89), paratyphoid fever (RR: 2.79, 95%CI: 2.02-3.90), and HMFD (RR: 1.34, 95%CI: 1.01-1.77).ConclusionsThis research systematically and quantitatively studied the effect of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on IIDs, which provided causal clues for future studies and guided government planning.

Climbing through Climate Change in the Canadian Rockies: Guides’ Experiences of Route Transformation on Mt. Athabasca

Mountain guides play an important role in the provision of nature-based tourism activities, such as mountaineering, in alpine environments around the world. However, these locales are uniquely sensitive to climate change, and despite extensive documentation of bio-geophysical changes, there are few studies evaluating the impacts of these changes on mountaineering routes and the livelihood of mountain guides. This constrains adaptation planning and limits awareness of potential loss and damage in the mountain tourism sector. In response, our study explored mountain guides’ lived experiences of working on Mt. Athabasca in Jasper National Park, Canada, to reveal the effects of climate change on mountaineering routes and implications for the mountain guiding community. To do this, we used a mixed methods approach that combined spatio-temporal trend analysis, repeat photography, and semi-structured interviews with mountain guides. We found that rising temperatures and changing precipitation regimes in the Mt. Athabasca area are driving glacial retreat and loss of semi-permanent snow and ice, which is impacting climbing conditions and objective hazards on mountaineering and guiding routes. Guides’ experiences of these changes varied according to socio-economic conditions (e.g., financial security, livelihood flexibility), with late-career guides tending to experience loss of guiding opportunities and early-career guides facing increased pressure to provide services in more challenging conditions. Our findings offer novel insights that identify salient issues and bolster support for actions in response to the concerns of the mountain guide community. This study also underscores the need for further research, as the underlying issues are likely present in mountaineering destinations globally.