Spatio-temporal Model Research Articles

Optical pulse-induced ultrafast antiferrodistortive transition in SrTiO3

The ultrafast dynamics of the antiferrodistortive phase transition in perovskite SrTiO3 is monitored via time-domain Brillouin scattering. Using femtosecond optical pulses, we initiate a thermally driven tetragonal-to-cubic structural transformation and detect the crystal phase through changes in the frequency of Brillouin oscillations (BO) induced by propagating acoustic phonons. Coupling the measured BO frequency with a spatiotemporal heat diffusion model, we demonstrate that, for a sample kept in the tetragonal phase, deposition of sufficient thermal energy induces a rapid transformation of the heat-affected region to the cubic phase. The initial phase change is followed by a slower reverse cubic-to-tetragonal phase transformation occurring on a timescale of hundreds of picoseconds. We attribute this ultrafast phase transformation in the perovskite to a structural resemblance between atomic displacements of the R-point soft optic mode of the cubic phase and the tetragonal phase, both characterized by anti-phase rotation of oxygen octahedra. The structural relaxation time exhibits a strong temperature dependence consistent with the prediction of the equation of motion describing collective oxygen octahedra rotation based on the energy landscape of the phenomenological Landau theory of phase transitions. Evidence of such a fast structural transition in perovskites can open up new avenues in information processing and energy storage sectors.

Long-term exposure to ozone and sleep disorders in children: A multicity study in China

Evidence regarding the link between long-term ambient ozone (O3) exposure and childhood sleep disorders is little. This study aims to examine the associations between long-term exposure to O3 and sleep disorders in children. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey, including 185,428 children aged 6–18 years in 173 schools across 14 Chinese cities during 2012 and 2018. Parents or guardians completed a checklist using Sleep Disturbance Scale for Children, and O3 exposure at residential and school addresses was estimated using a satellite-based spatiotemporal model. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the associations with adjustment for factors including socio-demographic variables, lifestyle, meteorology and multiple pollutants. Mean concentrations of O3, particulate matter with diameters ≤2.5 mm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were 89.0 μg/m3, 42.5 μg/m3 and 34.4 μg/m3, respectively. O3 and NO2 concentrations were similar among provinces, while PM2.5 concentration varied significantly among provinces. Overall, 19.4% of children had at least one sleep disorder. Long-term exposure to O3 was positively associated with odds of sleep disorders for all subtypes. For example, each interquartile increment in home-school O3 concentrations was associated with a higher odds ratio for global sleep disorder, at 1.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.18, 1.26). Similar associations were observed for sleep disorder subtypes. The associations remained similar after adjustment for PM2.5 and NO2. Moreover, these associations were heterogeneous regionally, with more prominent associations among children residing in southeast region than in northeast and northwest regions in China. We concluded that long-term exposure to O3 is positively associated with risks of childhood sleep disorders. These associations varied by geographical region of China.

A bayesian spatio-temporal dynamic analysis of food security in Africa

Exploring the factors influencing Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) and understanding its dynamics is crucial for planning and management. This understanding plays a pivotal role in supporting Africa's food security efforts to achieve various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Utilizing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on data from the FAO website, spanning from 2000 to 2019, informative components are derived for dynamic spatio-temporal modeling of Africa’s FSN Given the dynamic and evolving nature of the factors impacting FSN, despite numerous efforts to understand and mitigate food insecurity, existing models often fail to capture this dynamic nature. This study employs a Bayesian dynamic spatio-temporal approach to explore the interconnected dynamics of food security and its components in Africa. The results reveal a consistent pattern of elevated FSN levels, showcasing notable stability in the initial and middle-to-late stages, followed by a significant acceleration in the late stage of the study period. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia exhibited particularly noteworthy high levels of FSN dynamicity. In particular, child care factors and undernourishment factors showed significant dynamicity on FSN. This insight suggests establishing regional task forces or forums for coordinated responses to FSN challenges based on dynamicity patterns to prevent or mitigate the impact of potential food security crises.

Integrating Mobile and Fixed-Site Black Carbon Measurements to Bridge Spatiotemporal Gaps in Urban Air Quality.

Urban air pollution can vary sharply in space and time. However, few monitoring strategies can concurrently resolve spatial and temporal variation at fine scales. Here, we present a new measurement-driven spatiotemporal modeling approach that transcends the individual limitations of two complementary sampling paradigms: mobile monitoring and fixed-site sensor networks. We develop, validate, and apply this model to predict black carbon (BC) using data from an intensive, 100-day field study in West Oakland, CA. Our spatiotemporal model exploits coherent spatial patterns derived from a multipollutant mobile monitoring campaign to fill spatial gaps in time-complete BC data from a low-cost sensor network. Our model performs well in reconstructing patterns at fine spatial and temporal resolution (30 m, 15 min), demonstrating strong out-of-sample correlations for both mobile (Pearson's R ∼ 0.77) and fixed-site measurements (R ∼ 0.95) while revealing features that are not effectively captured by a single monitoring approach in isolation. The model reveals sharp concentration gradients near major emission sources while capturing their temporal variability, offering valuable insights into pollution sources and dynamics.

TVGCN: Time-varying graph convolutional networks for multivariate and multifeature spatiotemporal series prediction.

Spatiotemporal (ST) graph modeling has garnered increasing attention recently. Most existing methods rely on a predefined graph structure or construct a single learnable graph throughout training. However, it is challenging to use a predefined graph structure to capture dynamic ST changes effectively due to evolving node relationships over time. Furthermore, these methods typically utilize only the original data, neglecting external temporal factors. Therefore, we put forward a novel time-varying graph convolutional network model that integrates external factors for multifeature ST series prediction. Firstly, we construct a time-varying adjacency matrix using attention to capture dynamic spatial relationships among nodes. The graph structure adapts over time during training, validation, and testing phases. Then, we model temporal dependence by dilated causal convolution, leveraging gated activation unit and residual connection. Notably, the prediction accuracy is enhanced through the incorporation of embedding absolute time and the fusion of multifeature. This model has been applied to three real-world multifeature datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance in all cases. Experiments show that the method has high accuracy and robustness when applied to multifeature and multivariate ST series problems.

Instabilities and self–organization in spatiotemporal epidemic dynamics driven by nonlinearity and noise

Theoretical analysis of epidemic dynamics has attracted significant attention in the aftermath of the COVID–19 pandemic. In this article, we study dynamic instabilities in a spatiotemporal compartmental epidemic model represented by a stochastic system of coupled partial differential equations (SPDE). Saturation effects in infection spread–anchored in physical considerations–lead to strong nonlinearities in the SPDE. Our goal is to study the onset of dynamic, Turing–type instabilities, and the concomitant emergence of steady–state patterns under the interplay between three critical model parameters–the saturation parameter, the noise intensity, and the transmission rate. Employing a second–order perturbation analysis to investigate stability, we uncover both diffusion–driven and noise–induced instabilities and corresponding self–organized distinct patterns of infection spread in the steady state. We also analyze the effects of the saturation parameter and the transmission rate on the instabilities and the pattern formation. In summary, our results indicate that the nuanced interplay between the three parameters considered has a profound effect on the emergence of dynamical instabilities and therefore on pattern formation in the steady state. Moreover, due to the central role played by the Turing phenomenon in pattern formation in a variety of biological dynamic systems, the results are expected to have broader significance beyond epidemic dynamics.

Identification and prediction method for acoustic emission and electromagnetic radiation signals of rock burst based on deep learning

With the deep development of underground rock engineering, the threat of rock burst disasters is increasing. At present, the identification and prediction of rock burst mostly rely on the experience of field staff to determine the critical value and development trend, and there is a lack of efficient and intelligent methods for the utilization of massive data. Therefore, this paper constructs a rock burst signal recognition and prediction model based on deep learning methods to solve the above problems. In this paper, the acoustic emission (AE) and electromagnetic radiation (EMR) data of the site are first marked and input into the long-short-term memory-fully connected neural network model to realize the identification of rock burst danger signals. Then, the graph data of the AE and EMR sensor monitoring networks are constructed and input into the spatiotemporal graph convolutional network signal prediction model to predict future monitoring data. Finally, this paper uses the same dataset to compare and analyze several other commonly used deep learning models. The results show that the model constructed in this paper has the best performance in the identification and prediction of AE and EMR signals with rockburst risk. This study can provide theoretical reference for intelligent monitoring and early warning of rock burst in underground rock engineering.

Multi-feature hybrid network for traffic flow prediction based on mobility patterns

Future flow prediction in spatiotemporal traffic data is a critical requirement for real-world applications, particularly for multi-feature and large-scale data with intricate forecasting mechanisms and varied predictability. Prior sequence-to-sequence studies have demonstrated the superiority of attention learning in prediction tasks by effectively capturing reliable dependencies/correlations. However, despite the promising results, the single-feature input pattern of traffic prediction causes an information utilization bottleneck. In this paper, we focus on discovering the cause-effect relationship of traffic dynamics by fusing the origin–destination (OD) flow. To achieve both high accuracy and universality, we design a scalable composition architecture—a Multi-Feature Hybrid Network (MFHN)—based on the existing framework of spatiotemporal feature modeling. In particular, we break with the preprocessing convention of feature composition and propose a Hybrid-Correlation mechanism by integrating similar subseries of the OD flow. Furthermore, inspired by graph learning, we introduce the mobility pattern based on the OD flow, which reveals the node-to-node dependencies. In the experiment, we consider various prediction tasks with state-of-the-art baseline models and find that the MFHN yields competitive accuracy in short- and long-term prediction.

Multi-site solar irradiance prediction based on hybrid spatiotemporal graph neural network

Constructing accurate spatiotemporal correlations is a challenging task in joint prediction of multiple photovoltaic sites. Some advanced algorithms for incorporating other surrounding site information have been proposed, such as graph neural network-based methods, which are usually based on static or dynamic graphs to build spatial dependencies between sites. However, the possibility of the simultaneous existence of multiple spatial dependencies is not considered. This paper establishes a spatiotemporal prediction model based on hybrid spatiotemporal graph neural network. In this model, we apply adaptive hybrid graph learning to learn composite spatial correlations among multiple sites. A temporal convolution module with multi-subsequence temporal data input is used to extract local semantic information to better predict future nonlinear temporal dependencies. A spatiotemporal adaptive fusion module is added to address the issue of integrating diverse spatiotemporal trends among multiple sites. To assess the model's predictive performance, nine solar radiation observation stations were selected in two different climatic environments. The average root mean square error (RMSE) of the constructed model was 38.51 and 49.90 W/m2, with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.72 and 23.06 W/m2, respectively. Single-site and multi-site prediction models were selected as baseline models. Compared with the baseline models, the RMSE and MAE reduce by 3.1%–20.8% and 8.9%–32.8%, respectively, across all sites. The proposed model demonstrates the effectiveness of improving accuracy in forecasting solar irradiance through multi-site predictions.

Rising risk and localized patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall extremes

Extreme precipitation during the Indian Summer Monsoon period often leads to heavy flooding, posing risks to infrastructure and human life across India. Modelling such phenomena requires developing spatio-temporal models that incorporate spatial dependence for a more realistic representation of spatial variation over a large domain. In this study, we employed a multivariate max-stable process-based model to capture the joint spatial dependence and to estimate the impact of geographic and temporal covariates on the risk associated with anomalous rainfall. Data pooling and local optimization at the cluster level help to reduce the uncertainty in the parameter estimates, whereas the incorporation of El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) enhances the predictive power of the models. The results indicate that approximately 75% of India's land area is at risk of experiencing heavy rainfall with a 50-year or more return period. The proposed max-stable process model adequately captured the nonstationary behaviour of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes. A post-hoc analysis was conducted to assess the practical significance of differences in estimated parameters. This is essential for understanding the real-time variations in the extremal behaviour of ISMR across the country. In addition, the phase effect of ENSO and spatial scale (cluster/region) changes were quantified using a linear mixed-effects model. The results suggest that the impact of ENSO becomes more pronounced for longer return periods and intensification of ISMR extremes occurs due to the shift from El Niño to La Niña phases. Moreover, treating spatial scales as a random component in the modelling reveals that ISMR extremes are highly localized in nature. Specifically, around 80% of the variation in ISMR extremes for shorter return levels is attributed to the nested spatial variation.

Vector-autoregressive based vibration monitoring of wind energy turbines using laser scanner profile measurements

Structural health monitoring of wind energy turbines (WET) is crucial due to the potential presence of an imbalanced rotor, leading to adverse centrifugal forces. In this research, non-contact vibration monitoring of a WET is conducted using a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) of the type Zoller+Fröhlich IMAGER 5016 in a two-dimensional (2D) profile mode, and with a rotation speed of 55 revolutions per second. The TLS profile measurements cover the entire pillar up to a height of 100 meter. Therefore, the challenges imposed by conventional measurement systems, such as accelerometers or inductive displacement transducers, are tackled through the high spatial resolution of the TLS measurements and non-contact measurement methods. Additionally, both time and cost are reduced regarding the sensor installation. In general, the WET is measured in two different directions to account for significant movements, both in the direction of the wind and perpendicular to it. To initiate the analysis, time series are generated from the profile measurements for various positions covering the entire pillar. A robust time-domain modal parameter identification approach based on the Vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with multivariate t-distributed random deviations (VAR-RT-MPI) is proposed to estimate modal parameters, including eigenfrequencies, eigenforms, and modal damping. Besides, it allows estimating unknown auto- and cross-correlation coefficients of the VAR process, the cofactor matrix, and the degrees of freedom of the t-distribution. The VAR-RT-MPI algorithm enables to jointly estimate the eigenfrequencies and damping ratio coefficients considering multiple time series. Additionally, the spatio-temporal model of the pillar is characterised based on the estimates of the amplitudes (in a submillimetre range) and phase shifts at different positions. Vibration monitoring was conducted on a WET located in Hannover, Germany, and the results were compared with a well-known covariance driven stochastic subspace identification (SSI-COV) approach.

Ambient air pollution and daily mortality in ten cities of India: a causal modelling study

The evidence for acute effects of air pollution on mortality in India is scarce, despite the extreme concentrations of air pollution observed. This is the first multi-city study in India that examines the association between short-term exposure to PM2·5 and daily mortality using causal methods that highlight the importance of locally generated air pollution. We applied a time-series analysis to ten cities in India between 2008 and 2019. We assessed city-wide daily PM2·5 concentrations using a novel hybrid nationwide spatiotemporal model and estimated city-specific effects of PM2·5 using a generalised additive Poisson regression model. City-specific results were then meta-analysed. We applied an instrumental variable causal approach (including planetary boundary layer height, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure) to evaluate the causal effect of locally generated air pollution on mortality. We obtained an integrated exposure-response curve through a multivariate meta-regression of the city-specific exposure-response curve and calculated the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollution concentrations exceeding the current WHO 24 h ambient PM2·5 guideline of 15 μg/m3. To explore the shape of the exposure-response curve at lower exposures, we further limited the analyses to days with concentrations lower than the current Indian standard (60 μg/m3). We observed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM2·5 was associated with 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·2) higher daily mortality. In our causal instrumental variable analyses representing the effect of locally generated air pollution, we observed a stronger association with daily mortality (3·6% [2·1-5·0]) than our overall estimate. Our integrated exposure-response curve suggested steeper slopes at lower levels of exposure and an attenuation of the slope at high exposure levels. We observed two times higher risk of death per 10 μg/m3 increase when restricting our analyses to observations below the Indian air quality standard (2·7% [1·7-3·6]). Using the integrated exposure-response curve, we observed that 7·2% (4·2%-10·1%) of all daily deaths were attributed to PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guidelines. Short-term PM2·5 exposure was associated with a high risk of death in India, even at concentrations well below the current Indian PM2·5 standard. These associations were stronger for locally generated air pollutants quantified through causal modelling methods than conventional time-series analysis, further supporting a plausible causal link. Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development.

Edge Computing-Enabled Secure Forecasting Nationwide Industry PM2.5 with LLM in the Heterogeneous Network

The heterogeneous network formed by the deployment and interconnection of various network devices (e.g., sensors) has attracted widespread attention. PM2.5 forecasting on the entire industrial region throughout mainland China is an important application of heterogeneous networks, which has great significance to factory management and human health travel. In recent times, Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited notability in terms of time series prediction. However, existing LLMs tend to forecast nationwide industry PM2.5, which encounters two issues. First, most LLM-based models use centralized training, which requires uploading large amounts of data from sensors to a central cloud. This entire transmission process can lead to security risks of data leakage. Second, LLMs fail to extract spatiotemporal correlations in the nationwide sensor network (heterogeneous network). To tackle these issues, we present a novel framework entitled Spatio-Temporal Large Language Model with Edge Computing Servers (STLLM-ECS) to securely predict nationwide industry PM2.5 in China. In particular, We initially partition the entire sensor network, located in the national industrial region, into several subgraphs. Each subgraph is allocated an edge computing server (ECS) for training and inference, avoiding the security risks caused by data transmission. Additionally, a novel LLM-based approach named Spatio-Temporal Large Language Model (STLLM) is developed to extract spatiotemporal correlations and infer prediction sequences. Experimental results prove the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Source-Specific Air Pollution and Loss of Independence in Older Adults Across the US

Air pollution is a recognized risk factor associated with chronic diseases, including respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, which can lead to physical and cognitive impairments in later life. Although these losses of function, individually or in combination, reduce individuals' likelihood of living independently, little is known about the association of air pollution with this critical outcome. To investigate associations between air pollution and loss of independence in later life. This cohort study was conducted as part of the Environmental Predictors Of Cognitive Health and Aging study and used 1998 to 2016 data from the Health and Retirement Study. Participants included respondents from this nationally representative, population-based cohort who were older than 50 years and had not previously reported a loss of independence. Analyses were performed from August 31 to October 15, 2023. Mean 10-year pollutant concentrations (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter [PM2.5] or ranging from 2.5 μm to 10 μm in diameter [PM10-2.5], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], and ozone [O3]) were estimated at respondent addresses using spatiotemporal models along with PM2.5 levels from 9 emission sources. Loss of independence was defined as newly receiving care for at least 1 activity of daily living or instrumental activity of daily living due to health and memory problems or moving to a nursing home. Associations were estimated with generalized estimating equation regression adjusting for potential confounders. Among 25 314 respondents older than 50 years (mean [SD] baseline age, 61.1 [9.4] years; 11 208 male [44.3%]), 9985 individuals (39.4%) experienced lost independence during a mean (SD) follow-up of 10.2 (5.5) years. Higher exposure levels of mean concentration were associated with increased risks of lost independence for total PM2.5 levels (risk ratio [RR] per 1-IQR of 10-year mean, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10), PM2.5 levels from road traffic (RR per 1-IQR of 10-year mean, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03-1.16) and nonroad traffic (RR per 1-IQR of 10-year mean, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.24), and NO2 levels (RR per 1-IQR of 10-year mean, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08). Compared with other sources, traffic-generated pollutants were most consistently and robustly associated with loss of independence; only road traffic-related PM2.5 levels remained associated with increased risk after adjustment for PM2.5 from other sources (RR per 1-IQR increase in 10-year mean concentration, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21). Other pollutant-outcome associations were null, except for O3 levels, which were associated with lower risks of lost independence (RR per 1-IQR increase in 10-year mean concentration, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97). This study found that long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with the need for help for lost independence in later life, with especially large and consistent increases in risk for pollution generated by traffic-related sources. These findings suggest that controlling air pollution could be associated with diversion or delay of the need for care and prolonged ability to live independently.

Long-term drought prediction using deep neural networks based on geospatial weather data

The problem of high-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. Yet, it is still unsolved with reasonable accuracy due to data complexity and aridity stochasticity. We tackle drought data by introducing an end-to-end approach that adopts a spatio-temporal neural network model with accessible open monthly climate data as the input. Our systematic research employs diverse proposed models and five distinct environmental regions as a testbed to evaluate the efficacy of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) prediction. Key aggregated findings are the exceptional performance of a Transformer model, EarthFormer, in making accurate short-term (up to six months) forecasts. At the same time, the Convolutional LSTM excels in longer-term forecasting. Both models achieved high ROC AUC scores: 0.948 for one month ahead and 0.617 for twelve months ahead forecasts, becoming closer to perfect ROC-AUC by 54% and 16%, respectively, c.t. classic approaches.

Air pollution and incident sarcoidosis in central Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT Sarcoidosis is a chronic granulomatous disease predominantly affecting the lungs and inducing significant morbidity and elevated mortality rate. The etiology of the disease is unknown but may involve exposure to an antigenic agent and subsequent inflammatory response resulting in granuloma formation. Various environmental and occupational risk factors have been suggested by previous observations, such as moldy environments, insecticides, and bird breeding. Our study investigated the association of air pollution with diagnosis of sarcoidosis using a case-control design. Penn State Health electronic medical records from 2005 to 2018 were examined for adult patients with (cases) and without (controls) an International Classification of Disease (ICD)-9 or −10 code for sarcoidosis. Patient addresses were geocoded and 24-hr residential-level air pollution concentrations were estimated using spatio-temporal models of particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone, and PM2.5 elemental carbon (EC) and moving averages calculated. In total, 877 cases and 34,510 controls were identified. Logistic regression analysis did not identify significant associations between sarcoidosis incidence and air pollution exposure estimates. However, the odds ratio (OR) for EC for exposures occurring 7–10 years prior did approach statistical significance, and ORs exhibited an increasing trend for longer averaging periods. Data suggested a latency period of more than 6 years for PM2.5 and EC for reasons that are unclear. Overall, results for PM2.5 and EC suggest that long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution may contribute to the development of sarcoidosis and emphasize the need for additional research and, if the present findings are substantiated, for public health interventions addressing air quality as well as increasing disease surveillance in areas with a large burden of PM2.5 and EC.

An efficient motion visual learning method for video action recognition

Currently, efficient spatio-temporal information modeling is one of the key research components to solve the action recognition problem. Previous approaches focus on enhancing the backbone features individually using hierarchical structures, and unfortunately, most of them fail to achieve a better balance between the interactional adequacy of features within the structure. In this work, we propose an effective Multi-dimensional Adaptive Fusion Network (MDAF-Net), which can be embedded into the mainstream action recognition backbone in a plug-and-play manner to fully activate the transfer and representation of action features in the deep network. Specifically, our MDAF-Net contains two main components: the Adaptive Temporal Capture Module (ATCM) and the Extended Spatial and Channel Module (ESCM). The ATCM effectively suppresses the over-expression of similar features in adjacent frames and activates the expression of motion flow information. The ESCM further improves temporal modeling efficiency by extending the spatial feature perceptual field and enhancing channel attention. Extensive experiments on several challenging action recognition benchmarks, such as Something-Something V1&V2 and Kinetics-400, demonstrate that the proposed MDAF can achieve state-of-the-art and competitive performance.

Incorporation of observation uncertainty in stock assessment using spatio-temporal modeling of catch-at-length and age-at-length survey data

Abstract Spatio-temporal models are essential tools for estimating abundance indices and quantifying the associated uncertainty. Time series of index uncertainties can be used to objectively determine the influence each index has on the assessment. This can involve reducing the influence of indices in years with limited data. However, incorporating uncertainty in age-length conversion into assessment models has remained a challenge. In this research, we propose an index estimation approach that combines an abundance-at-length model with a model for age-at-length to generate age-specific abundance indices. By jointly modeling abundance-at-length and age-at-length, we address uncertainties in both components of the index-at-age. Using North East Arctic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) as a case study, we validate the uncertainty of the indices by integrating them into the state space assessment model SAM. The results indicate that the uncertainty estimates are realistic, and we further demonstrate that incorporating uncertainty in age conversion has effects on the assessment results. Our case study demonstrates that incorporating the uncertainty in age-at-length data improves the characterization of uncertainty in stock assessment, and hence better accounts for risk in precautionary management.

Invited commentary: Motivating better methods-and better data collection-for measuring prevalence of drug misuse.

The United States continues to suffer a drug overdose crisis that has resulted in over 100,000 deaths annually since 2021. Despite decades of attention, estimates of the prevalence of drug use at the spatiotemporal resolutions necessary for resource allocation and intervention evaluation are lacking. Current approaches to measure prevalence of drug use, such as population surveys, capture-recapture, and multiplier methods, have significant limitations. Santaella-Tenorio et al. (Am J Epidemiol. XXXX;XXX(XX):XXXX-XXXX)) use a novel joint Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling approach to estimate county-level opioid misuse prevalence in New York state from 2007 to 2018 and identify significant intra-state variation. By leveraging five data sources and simultaneously modeling different opioid-related outcomes - such as deaths, emergency department visits, and treatment visits - they obtain policy-relevant insights into the prevalence of opioid misuse and opioid-related outcomes at high spatiotemporal resolutions. This study provides future researchers with a sophisticated modeling approach that allows them to incorporate multiple data sources in a rigorous statistical framework. The limitations of the study reflect the constraints of the broader field and underscores the importance of enhancing current surveillance with better, newer, and more timely data that is both standardized and easily accessible to inform public health policies and interventions.

Excess deaths and loss of life expectancy attributed to long-term NO2 exposure in the Chinese elderly

BackgroundEvidence linking nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution to life span of high-vulnerability older adults is extensively scarce in low- and middle-income countries. This study seeks to quantify mortality risk, excess deaths, and loss of life expectancy (LLE) associated with long-term exposure to NO2 among elderly individuals in China. MethodsA nationwide dynamic cohort of 20352 respondents ≥65 years old were enrolled from the China Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey during 2005–2018. Residential exposures to NO2 and co-pollutants were assessed by well-validated spatiotemporal prediction models. A Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates was utilized to quantify the association of all-cause mortality with NO2 exposure, controlling for confounders such as demographics, lifestyle, health status, and ambient temperature. NO2-attributable deaths and LLE were evaluated for the years 2010 and 2020 based on the pooled NO2-mortality relation derived from multi-national cohort investigations. Decomposition analyses were conducted to dissociate net shift in NO2-related deaths between 2010 and 2020 into four primary contributing factors. ResultsA total of 14313 deaths were recorded during follow-up of approximately 100 hundred person-years (median 3.6 years). We observed an approximately linear relationship (nonlinear P = 0.882) of NO2 exposure with all-cause death across a broad range from 6.6 to 95.7 μg/m3. Every 10-μg/m3 rise in yearly average NO2 concentration was linked to a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.045 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.031–1.059). In the updated meta-analysis of this study and 9 existing cohorts, we estimated a pooled HR of 1.043 (95% CI: 1.023–1.063) for each 10-μg/m3 growth in NO2. Reaching a 10-μg/m3 counterfactual target of NO2 concentration in China could avoid 0.33 (95% empirical CI: 0.19–0.49) million premature deaths and an LLE of 0.40 (95% empirical CI: 0.23–0.59) years in 2010, which greatly dropped to 0.24 (95% empirical CI: 0.14–0.36) million deaths and 0.21 (95% empirical CI: 0.12–0.31) years of LLE in 2020. The net fall in NO2-attributable deaths (–26.8%) between 2010 and 2020 was primarily driven by the declines in both NO2 concentration (–41.6%) and mortality rate (–27.1%) under population growth (+41.0%) and age structure transition (+0.9%). ConclusionsOur findings provide national evidence for increased risk of premature death and loss of life expectancy attributed to later-life NO2 exposure among the elderly in China. In an accelerated aging society, strengthened clean air actions should be formulated to minimize the health burden and regional inequality in NO2-attributable mortality.