The rapid social and economic development has led to problems such as over-exploitation of water resources, strong demand for physical water resources, and disequilibrium of water resources load. Based on the current situation of the water resources system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this study proposed an input–output analysis-assessment-prediction-optimization framework. A water resources dissipation environment extended multi-regional input–output model was established, and the spatial equilibrium of water resources load was evaluated comprehensively. Furthermore, a multi-dimensional spatial equilibrium optimal allocation for water resources was built to identify key nodes and sectors. The primary findings were as follows: (1) Shijiazhuang and Tangshan were the main cities with net virtual water outflow, while Beijing and Baoding were the primary recipients of net virtual water inflow; (2) The overall score for the spatial equilibrium assessment of water resource load was low, with dimension scores predominantly ranging between 0.2 and 0.6; (3) The key transfer nodes were predominantly concentrated on the “outflow from Shijiazhuang” and the “inflow to Cangzhou and Langfang” nodes. This research conducted an in-depth exploration of the direction of water resource transfers, the actual stress conditions, and the spatial equilibrium of water resources within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Finally, the future adjustment strategy for water-intensive industries at the urban agglomeration scale was obtained.
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