Spatial Spillover Effects Research Articles

Research on Port-Industry-City Integration and its Spatial Spillover Effects: Empirical Evidence from the Bohai Sea Rim Region

Research on Port-Industry-City Integration and its Spatial Spillover Effects: Empirical Evidence from the Bohai Sea Rim Region

Can the Development of Renewable Energy Improve Total-Factor Carbon Emissions Efficiency? Evidence from 30 Provinces in China

Abstract The global temperature is exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels due to the increasing carbon emissions, and developing renewable energy is expected to be one of the most effective solutions. However, whether the development of renewable energy contributes to curbing the carbon emissions while maintaining economic development is still under investigation. Using the total-factor carbon emission efficiency (TFCEE), this paper first measures the carbon emission abatement and economic development of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019. Then, based on the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SE-SBM) model, the panel threshold models and spatial Durbin models are established to comprehensively investigate the impact of RED on TFCEE. The findings reveal that: (1) RED significantly improves TFCEE. For every 1% increase in RED, TFCEE experiences a rise ranging from 0.020% to 0.035%. (2) The beneficial effect of RED on TFCEE increases with economic restructuring and technological progress. (3) The indirect impact of RED on TFCEE through spatial spillover is significantly greater than its direct effect. Potential transmission mechanisms for this spatial spillover effect are the cross-regional mobilization of renewable electricity and the diffusion and absorption of low-carbon knowledge and technologies. The above conclusions provide empirical evidence for China and other developing countries to formulate appropriate energy transformation strategies. Keywords: Renewable energy development; Total-factor carbon emissions efficiency; Transmission mechanism; Spatial spillover effect; Nonlinear effect.

How Does Digital Infrastructure Development Affect Housing Prices? A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the “Broadband China” Program

Currently, digital infrastructure development, as a key driver of economic growth in the new era, provides a new perspective for alleviating the current tremendous downward pressure on China’s real estate market. Based on data from 255 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2020, this study takes the “Broadband China” Program as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) model to investigate mechanisms of impact of digital infrastructure development on housing prices. The empirical results show that the “Broadband China” Program has a significant positive impact on housing prices, with an average treatment effect of 8%. This primarily occurs through population agglomeration, income enhancement, and technological innovation. It has also a positive spatial spillover effect on housing prices. Overall, digital infrastructure development is a “double-edged sword”: while improving the quality of life and convenience, it will also bring about rising housing prices. Therefore, we should pay more attention to how to guide digital infrastructure development, including broadband networks, to reasonably regulate housing prices to promote the healthy development of China’s real estate market.

Inhibition or promotion? --A study on the impact of artificial intelligence on consumption upgrading based on the perspective of industrial structure and market upgrading

Artificial intelligence (AI) is essential in driving industrial transformation, upgrading value chains, and promoting global cooperation, and is also an important engine for promoting economic growth and technological innovation. Studying the relationship between AI and consumption upgrading helps drive the deepening development of the AI industry, while stimulating consumption vitality, improving consumption levels, and achieving consumption upgrading. This article utilizes data spanning from 2013 to 2022 across 30 provinces to empirically test the impact of artificial intelligence on household consumption upgrading through a bidirectional fixed effects model. The examination of its influence mechanism and spatial spillover effects is deepened through the utilization of the Bootstrap-based mediation effect model, threshold effect model, and spatial Durbin model. Research has found that the improvement of artificial intelligence level can significantly promote the upgrading of household consumption. The development of AI level will promote the upgrading of consumption and economic growth within the province, while also producing a "demonstration effect" on neighboring areas. After robustness testing, the conclusion is still valid. In-depth analysis indicates that industrial structure upgrading and market upgrading serve as two significant intermediary pathways, with the presence of a single threshold effect. This article provides decision-making references for China to better promote consumption expenditure upgrading in the artificial intelligence industry from the perspective of supply and demand integration.

Navigating total-factor carbon emission efficiency in the digital era: A case study from industry structure, environmental regulations, and trade spillover

Digital technology innovation has become essential to China's sustainable, low-carbon social development strategy. However, its spatial impact on carbon reduction and efficiency is unclear. This study innovatively utilizes patent search to define digital technology innovation and spatial econometric modeling to assess its association with total-factor carbon emission efficiency (TCEE) in 286 Chinese cities. There are some exciting research findings: (1) Digital technology innovation effectively accelerates local TCEE and contributes to TCEE in surrounding cities through spatial spillover effects. (2) The heterogeneous results show that digital technology innovation increases the local TCEE in the western region, inhibits the local TCEE in the eastern and northeastern areas, and shows apparent positive spillover effects in both the eastern and western areas; the positive effects of digital technology innovation on TCEE in non-resource cities and small cities are all-encompassing. (3) Both industrial structure upgrading and optimization can enhance the spatial spillover effect of digital technology innovation on TCEE; both formal and informal environmental regulations (ER) can effectively accelerate the TCEE enhancement effect of digital technology innovation on local and surrounding cities. (4) Digital technology innovation affects the TCEE of trading partners through domestic bilateral trade. This manuscript provides an actionable reference for measuring digital technology innovation and China's path to achieving an efficient low-carbon pathway.

Impacts and threshold effects of urban–rural integration on the transition of arable land use functions

This study examines the impact of urban–rural integration (URI) on the transition of arable land use functions (TALUF), providing both theoretical and empirical insights into how URI can promote TALUF. Utilizing panel data from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2003 to 2022, this research employs the entropy method, Durbin model, and spatial threshold model to assess the levels of URI and TALUF in the region and examine the direct impact, spatial spillover effects, and threshold effects of URI on TALUF. The findings are: (1) During the study period, both TALUF and URI levels in the YRD showed continuous improvement, although significant spatial imbalances persisted, with regional differentiation gradually diminishing. (2) URI exerts a significant inhibitory effect on TALUF and produces a negative spatial spillover effect. (3) URI exerts a single threshold effect on TALUF: below the economic development threshold of 0.733, URI and its spatial term inhibit TALUF, whereas above this threshold, they promote it. Consequently, fostering high-quality regional economic development, enhancing intercity cooperation, driving agricultural technological innovation, and increasing agricultural input intensity are essential strategies for arable land use policies in the context of URI.

Green siphon or green spillover: Analyzing the spatial implications of industrial relocation on green development

Industry relocation has a profound impact on the green development of recipient cities and their neighboring areas, driven by various factors such as investment and technological progress. This study investigates the impact of industrial relocation on the green development efficiency (GDE) of recipient cities and its spatial spillover effect using national city-level data and the establishment of national-level Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones (IRDZ) as a policy shock, employing spatial difference-in-differences models. Both theoretical analysis and empirical tests show that industrial outflow increases the GDE of recipient cities, but reducing the GDE of neighboring cities. This effect decays with spatial distance and only affects non-resource cities. In addition, regional integration and the influence of large cities can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of industrial relocation. Industrial agglomeration, environmental regulation, green innovation, and energy intensity are the main direct and indirect pathways through which industrial relocation affects GDE in recipient and neighboring cities. The findings of this study are significant for promoting industrial relocation, energy conservation, and emission reduction in developing regions, as well as enhancing green cooperation among governments.

Steering toward sustainability: Can dual circulation development mitigate CO2 emissions? —Evidence from China

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve high-quality economic development, China has proposed another development pattern called dual circulation development (CIR), along with the goals of “carbon neutrality and carbon peaking”. Based on the data of prefecture-level cities and above from 2006 to 2021, the fixed-effects model, 2SLS model, mediation model, threshold model, and spatial Durbin model are used to discuss the role of CIR in affecting CO2 emissions. Results demonstrate that (1) the overall CO2 emissions exhibit a decreasing trend from 2006 to 2021, and the CIR presents an upward trend. CIR and CO2 emissions show apparent geographical differences. (2) CIR effectively reduces CO2 emissions, and this effect exhibits clear heterogeneity of different regions, resource endowment, and pilot free trade zone. CIR mitigates CO2 emissions by enhancing technological innovation and promoting human capital mobility. Market scale and industrial structure optimization act as a “magnifying glass”, amplifying the impact of CIR on reducing CO2 emissions. (3) The negative spatial spillover effect of CIR on CO2 emissions shows a “V” shape characterized by strengthening and then weakening in the range of 0–700 km. At this point, the 700 km mark represents the decay boundary. Findings suggest that the government should enhance the domestic market environment and improve the quality of foreign trade to fulfill the role of CIR in mitigating CO2 emissions. These empirical evidence and feasible measures are provided for some countries to reduce CO2 emissions while promoting economic development.

Impacts of low-carbon city pilot policy on ecological well-being performance across Chinese cities: A spatial difference-in-difference analysis

Attaining a win-win goal among ecological conservation and well-being development is an inevitable requirement for China's transition towards low-carbon cities. Using a dataset of China's 277 cities during 2007-2021, this paper explores the local-neighbor impacts of the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCP) policy on ecological well-being performance (EWP) by adopting the spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) approach. Then, explaining its action mechanism from a green lifestyle perspective. The results show that: (1) the quantity of sample cities with excellent EWP levels is on an upward trend, rising from 13 in 2007 to 76 in 2021, an increase of 22.75%; (2) LCP policy facilitates the growth of EWP in local cities and exerts notable spatial spillover effects, enhancing EWP in neighboring cities within 1300 km; (3) Improving residents’ green consumption awareness is an effective mechanism for LCP policy to enhance EWP of local and surrounding cities; (4) The local-neighbor effects of LCP on EWP are more significant in non-resource, government innovation-preferring and large cities. These results can offer valuable insights for policymakers in formulating environmental strategies that reconcile ecological environment with well-being growth.

Research on the coupling coordination and spatial spillover effect of industrial development and environmental protection

ABSTRACT Analysing the coordination and spatial spillover effects between industrial development and environmental protection is crucial for regional sustainable development. This paper examines the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination level between industrial development and environmental protection, as well as the evolution of the decoupling type within this system. under the evolution of the coupling coordination mode and decoupling model. Additionally, it analyzes the spatial spillover effects using the spatial panel vector autoregression model. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the coordination level between industrial development and environmental protection is increasing over time in each province. Second, the decoupling status of industrial development and environmental protection shows distinct stages, progressing towards strong decoupling over time. Third, regional industrial development has a positive spillover effect on both industrial development and environmental protection in neighbouring regions, whereas regional environmental protection has a negative spillover effect on industrial development but a positive spillover effect on environmental protection in neighbouring regions. This paper suggests that provinces should focus on the synchronisation industrial development and environmental protection and implement differentiated strategies based on their specific conditions. Additionally, joint management and governance should be pursued between neighbouring provinces.

Remote high-speed rail stations, urban land supply, and the emergence of new economic activities

This study investigates the influence of high-speed rail (HSR) station placements on urban economic activities within cities. Specifically, we assess their effects on government-driven new land supply and market-driven emerging economic activities. Using data from 2007 to 2017, our analysis encompasses 720 HSR stations across 319 Chinese cities, with a focus on remote stations situated in the peripheral counties. Our findings reveal that remote HSR stations typically function as new city subcenters. They consistently drive the expansion of both land supply and economic activities (distance effect) and draw them toward the quadrant surrounding the station (direction effect). However, the alignment between their impacts on land supply and economic activities varies based on the city characteristics. In cities experiencing population declines, remote HSR stations notably affect land supply but have a negligible influence on economic activities, leading to resource misallocation and an increased risk of ghost towns. Furthermore, better HSR accessibility and higher tertiary industry proportions can magnify the spatial spillover effects of HSR station location on both land supply and economic activities.

The Effect of Carbon Trading Pilot Policy on Resource Allocation Efficiency: A Multiple Mediating Effect Model of Development, Innovation, and Investment

This study extends the existing research on carbon trading policies from the perspective of mediating effects. Based on the difference-in-differences method, this study helps to understand the relationship between China’s carbon trading policies and resource allocation efficiency. The study finds that carbon trading policy promotes the optimization of capital allocation efficiency but does not promote the optimization of labor allocation efficiency. This conclusion has passed a series of robustness tests. Moreover, our analysis shows that carbon trading policies can influence resource allocation efficiency through per capita GDP, foreign direct investment, and innovation levels using multiple mediating models. Factors such as market size, the number of emission entities, and the behavior of market participants affect the resource allocation efficiency in the carbon trading process. Finally, the spatial spillover effect of the carbon trading policy is verified. This paper provides empirical evidence and policy implications for achieving the dual carbon goal and sustainable development.

Allocation of Financial Resources and Green Economic Development: Evidence from China

Green development has recently become the theme of global economic development. Focusing on green development, this paper uses China’s interprovincial panel data from 2003–2022 to construct a spatial Durbin model to study the impact of the allocation of financial resources between the virtual economy and the real economy on green development. The findings are as follows: (1) The “virtual and real” allocation of financial resources has a significant effect on the green development of the economy; on the whole, the increase in financial resources in the virtual economy reduces the quality of green economic development. (2) The “virtual and real” allocation of financial resources has an obvious spatial spillover effect on green economic development; the increase in financial resources flowing into the virtual economy in one province (city) reduces the proportion of financial resources flowing into the virtual economy in neighboring provinces, which is conducive to the green economic development of the neighboring provinces. (3) Due to the differences in economic structure, industrial structure, and financial development level among provinces and regions, the “virtual and real” allocation of financial resources has a significant effect on the green economic development of central, eastern, and western China.

The spatial effects of innovation agglomeration on air quality in China: from the perspective of industrial development

ABSTRACT This study aims to explore the impact of innovation agglomeration on air pollution and industrial transformation within the context of China’s green development transition. We developed a general equilibrium model to theoretically explore these effects and employed an econometric analysis using panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China between 2005 and 2019 to empirically validate our findings. The main results are as follows: (1) Innovation agglomeration can significantly improve air quality, with a strong spatial spillover effect. (2) Innovation agglomeration can significantly promote transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and it may also lead to the convergence of some industrial structures. Moreover, industrial structure transformation and upgrading partially mediates the relationship between innovation agglomeration and air pollution. (3) There is a nonlinear relationship between innovation agglomeration and air pollution. As industrial complementarity is developed, the effect of innovation agglomeration on air pollution enhances. These findings suggest that fostering innovation clusters and encouraging industrial diversification are key policy strategies for achieving sustainable urban development and improving environmental outcomes.

The impact and spatial spillover effect of traditional culture on urban green innovation: Empirical evidence from China

The issues of resource scarcity and environmental pollution has become huge challenges that all of humanity faces together. To resolve the issue, promoting urban green innovation capacity is important. This study uses 189 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2011 to 2020 as samples, and empirically test the impact and spatial spillover effect of traditional culture on urban green innovation. This study finds that: (1) Traditional culture can improve the local green innovation and positively impact the green innovation in neighboring cities by radiation effect, and the conclusion remains valid after robustness tests; (2) Talent flow and data flow negatively moderate the positive impact of traditional culture on green innovation in local cities. In addition, from a dynamic perspective, traditional culture has a negative impact on green innovation in neighboring cities because of the siphon effect; (3) The spatial spillover effect of traditional culture on urban green innovation shows distinct heterogeneity due to the different regions and whether it is a low-carbon pilot city. This study verifies the important value of Chinese traditional culture in urban sustainable development, which is of great significance for the protection and inheritance of traditional culture and the improvement of urban green innovation.

Unveiling the nexus: exploring the influence of terrorism on energy trade in China and the Belt and Road countries

An examination of the scale of energy trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, as well as the terrorist activities in these countries from 2008 to 2019, has been conducted in this study. The spatial and temporal evolution law is revealed through the use of exploratory spatial data analysis. The spatial Durbin model is employed to investigate the impacts and spatial spillover effects of terrorist activities along the Belt and Road on China’s energy trade with these countries. The findings of the study are as follows: Spatial clustering is exhibited by the energy scale of China’s imports and exports with countries along the routes and terrorist activities along the routes, with energy imports concentrated in West Asia and North Africa, energy exports concentrated in Southeast Asia, and terrorist activities concentrated in West Asia and North Africa, South Asia, and Central Asia. A negative effect on the scale of China’s energy imports from the countries along the route is exerted by the terrorism index, and a positive spatial spillover effect is present. The number of terrorist activities and deaths have a negative effect on the scale of China’s energy imports from the countries along the route, but there is no spatial spillover effect. The terrorism index does not affect the scale of energy exports from China to countries along the route, but there is a negative spatial spillover effect. There are differences in the spatial spillover effects of the number of terrorist activities and deaths on the scale of China’s energy exports. The level of economic development, liner transportation convenience, and energy exports dependence of the countries along the route also significantly influence China’s energy trade with these countries.

Does aid for trade promote FDI from enterprises of donors to recipient countries? Based on the spatial spillover effect of China's Aid for Trade

AbstractThis paper investigates the direct and spatial spillover effects of China's Aid for Trade (AfT) on Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment (FDI) in recipient countries. The results show that China's AfT can effectively promote FDI by Chinese firms in recipient countries, and the promotion effect is determined by both the direct effect and the spatial spillover effect. The mechanism test finds that China's AfT can promote FDI by Chinese firms through improving the infrastructure of the recipient countries and enhancing the image of the residents of the recipient countries toward China. The study suggests that the introduction of spatial spillover effects in the study of aid is of great significance in promoting the development of research in the field of aid. This paper enriches the conclusions of aid research in the field of economics on the one hand and broadens the boundaries of aid effectiveness research on the other hand.

The Impacts of Digital Finance on Economic Resilience

Enhancing economic resilience is crucial to sustainable development. However, issues such as resource misallocation and financing difficulties have severely impacted supply chain stability and security. The rise of digital finance presents potential solutions to these problems. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, this study explores the mechanisms and pathways through which digital finance enhances economic resilience. The results reveal four key findings. First, the development of digital finance significantly enhances economic resilience by improving innovation capabilities and consumption vitality. Second, a high degree of marketization strengthens the promoting effect of digital finance on economic resilience. Third, in areas with higher levels of industrial advancement or lower levels of traditional financial development, the enhancement effect of digital finance on economic resilience is more significant. Fourth, digital finance significantly improved the economic resilience of geographically adjacent areas through spatial spillover effects. Overall, this study provides a new perspective on the impact of digital finance on economic resilience in developing countries such as China. In addition to its academic contributions, this study offers detailed practical implications.

Spatial spillover effect and driving factors of urban carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin using nighttime light data

Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a pivotal region for energy consumption and carbon emissions (CEs) in China, with cities emerging as the main sources of regional CEs. This highlights their critical role in achieving regional sustainable development and China’s carbon neutrality. Consequently, there is a pressing need for a detailed exploration of the urban spillover effects and an in-depth analysis of the complex determinants influencing CEs within the YRB. Remote sensing data provide optimal conditions for conducting extensive studies across large geographical areas and extended time periods. This study integrates DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light datasets for a longitudinal analysis of urban CEs in the YRB. Using a harmonized dataset from DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light from 2007 to 2021, this study quantifies CEs of 58 prefecture-level cities in the YRB. By combining ESDA, STIRPAT model and spatial econometric model, this investigation further clarifies empirically the spatial spillover effects and driving factors of urban CEs. The analysis delineates a phase-wise augmentation in urban CEs, converging towards a distinct spatial distribution characterized by “lower reach > middle reach > upper reach”. The spatial autocorrelation tests unravel a complex interplay between agglomeration and differentiation patterns within urban CEs, underscored by pronounced spatial lock-in phenomena. Significantly, this study demonstrates that urbanization, economic development, energy consumption structure, green coverage rate, industrial structure, population, technological progress, and FDI each exhibit varied direct and indirect effect on urban CEs. Furthermore, it elaborates on potential policy implications and future research directions, offering crucial insights for formulating CEs mitigation strategies to advance sustainable development.

The Impact of Digital Governance on Entrepreneurial Activity in Relatively Poor Areas: Evidence from Tibet, China

This paper examines the impact of digital governance on entrepreneurial activity in deprived areas from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Our study is twofold. First, we utilize a economic geography model to theoretically analyze the influence of digital governance on regional entrepreneurial endeavors and develop research hypotheses. Second, using county panel data from Tibet spanning from 2001 to 2021, we empirically examine the influence of digital governance on entrepreneurial activity. The results show that digital governance can significantly increase regional entrepreneurial activity, and that the effect exhibits an upward and then a downward trend over time, with some spatial spillover effects. We argue that differences in regional network infrastructure are an important heterogeneity factor affecting digital governance’s ability to increase entrepreneurial activity. Our conclusions remain robust to various tests.