Spatial Scenarios Research Articles

A global framework to model spatial ecosystems exposure to home and personal care chemicals in Asia

This paper analyzes spatially ecosystem exposure to home and personal care (HPC) chemicals, accounting for market data and environmental processes in hydrological water networks, including multi-media fate and transport. We present a global modeling framework built on ScenAT (spatial scenarios of emission), SimpleTreat (sludge treatment plants), and Pangea (spatial multi-scale multimedia fate and transport of chemicals), that we apply across Asia to four chemicals selected to cover a variety of applications, volumes of production and emission, and physico-chemical and environmental fate properties: the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulphonate (LAS), the antimicrobial triclosan (TCS), the personal care preservative methyl paraben (MeP), and the emollient decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). We present maps of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and compare them with monitored values. LAS emission levels and PECs are two to three orders of magnitude greater than for other substances, yet the literature about monitored levels of LAS in Asia is very limited. We observe a good agreement for TCS in freshwater (Pearson r=0.82, for 253 monitored values covering 12 streams), a moderate agreement in general, and a significant model underestimation for MeP in sediments. While most differences could be explained by uncertainty in both chemical/hydrological parameters (DT50water, DT50sediments, Koc, foc, TSS) and monitoring sites (e.g. spatial/temporal design), the underestimation of MeP concentrations in sediments may involve potential natural sources. We illustrate the relevance of local evaluations for short-lived substances in fresh water (LAS, MeP), and their inadequacy for substances with longer half-lives (TCS, D5). This framework constitutes a milestone towards higher tier exposure modeling approaches for identifying areas of higher chemical concentration, and linking large-scale fate modeling with (sub) catchment-scale ecological scenarios; a major limitation in model accuracy comes from the discrepancy between streams routed on a gridded, 0.5°×0.5° global hydrological network and actual locations of streams and monitoring sites.

Planning Strategically or by the Book?—Contentious Land Use Planning in South-eastern Finland

ABSTRACTThe debate on strategic spatial planning highlights the limitations of statutory land use planning in weighing up future options for spatial development, particularly in instances of rapid change. This paper draws on this debate in order to analyse planning institutions and practices in Finland. The case in point is the south-eastern border region where interdependencies with Russia, particularly shopping tourism, have created pressures on land use and led to contentious planning processes between regional and central levels of government. It is argued that, in the absence of cross-border spatial co-ordination, there is a need to establish links between regional land use planning and visions of spatial scenarios in the national context.

Optimal and simple near optimal non‐coherent detection in amplify‐and‐forward two‐way relaying over fast fading channels

Two-way relaying tends to become a celebrated technique in communication networks because of its unique characteristic in establishing a two-step bilateral information exchange mechanism between users' pairs, as well as, arranging a virtual spatial diversity scenario. In this paper, two-way relaying under amplify-and-forward strategy, and fast Rayleigh fading environment is considered. We investigate two distinct cases in which the relay retransmits users' superposed signals, either directly or after complex conjugation in two- or three-phase modalities. We derive the optimal detection rule which is inherently computational complex. Two closed-form suboptimal structures are proposed to circumvent this formidable problem. In the first form, we incorporate the destination noise into the relay counterpart, and assume Gaussian conditional distribution for the received signal in the latter. The first detector is designed using less stringent approximation and consequently has a better performance, whereas the second one benefits from a very low computational complexity and simple implementation and is more suitable for applications with strict computational and energy constraints such as sensor networks. Furthermore, we consider the imperfect self-channel information case and extend the corresponding results. Bit error rate analyses and accompanying computer simulations show an improvement of about 5 dB over existing methods.

Importance of scenario analysis in urban development for urban water infrastructure planning and management

Sealing of surfaces and land use change induced by population change puts pressure on urban water networks. Changes in paved areas can also increase the risk of pluvial flooding at places that have not been endangered before. For an anticipatory planning and adaptation of the existing water infrastructure to a dynamic and evolving system like a growing or shrinking city, a comprehensive urban development scenario analysis is essential. This work presents an urban development model designed especially for simplistic simulation of multiple predefined population and spatial scenarios and allowing for an integration with successive urban water network models.Results show that an analysis of different development scenarios can help to increase a city's resilience to unexpected changes. Hence it is crucial to simulate a variety of scenarios to cover as many future outcomes of city development as possible for a systematic and rigorous inquiry for problematic situations in the future.

The use of urban spatial scenario design model as a strategic planning tool for Addis Ababa

Urban population growth and expansion of settlement areas are among the major challenges that African cities are facing. Addis Ababa's settlement area has been expanding into the city's peripheral area at the expense of losing green infrastructure (GI) of farmland and vegetated areas. The protection of GI is impeded by the lack of foresight information and tools to support urban planning. Therefore, a GIS-based urban spatial scenario design model (USSDM) was applied for modelling the settlement expansion in Addis Ababa. A business as usual scenario (BAU) and a densification scenario (DENS) were modelled to evaluate the impact of population density on the green infrastructure and the implications of excluding settlement development from flood prone areas. Training and workshops were conducted on the use of USSDM in the Addis Ababa master plan review. The results of our study indicated that increasing population density from 166 to 350 inhabitants per hectare would almost halve the losses of the green infrastructure. Moreover, the settlement development in the densification scenario would be located closer to the vicinity of the built-up area rather than spreading along the eastern part of the city, which is currently occupied by farmland in the case of BAU. Densification would also slow down expansion of settlements in river corridors but might expose more inhabitants to flood hazards. USSDM is one of few models in Africa that is designed towards application by urban planners as a tool of assessing the impact of urban development strategies on the surrounding environment.

Assessment of Social Vulnerability to Floods in the Floodplain of Northern Italy

AbstractPractices for reducing the impacts of floods are becoming more and more advanced, centered on communities and reaching out to vulnerable populations. Vulnerable individuals are characterized by social and economic attributes and by societal dynamics rooted in each community. These indicators can magnify the negative impacts of disasters together with the capacity of each individual to cope with these events. The Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) provides an empirical basis to compare social differences in various spatial scenarios and for specific environmental hazards. This research shows the application of the SoVI to the floodplain of northern Italy, based on the use of 15 census variables. The chosen study area is of particular interest for the high occurrence of flood events coupled with a high level of human activity, landscape transformations, and an elevated concentration of assets and people. The analysis identified a positive spatial autocorrelation across the floodplain that translates into the spatial detection of vulnerable groups, those that are likely to suffer the most from floods. In a second stage, the output of the index was superimposed on the flood hazard map of the study area to analyze the resulting risk. The Piemonte and Veneto regions contain the main areas prone to flood “social” risk, highlighting the need for a cohesive management approach at all levels to recognize local capacities and increase communication, awareness, and preparedness to mitigate the undesirable effects of such events.

Exploring the future of rural–urban connections in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling urban expansion and its impact on food production in the Addis Ababa region

The built-up area of Addis Ababa and its surrounding towns is expanding into the peri-urban region leading to high losses of farmland, directly influencing the food production for the urban population. This paper investigates the patterns of settlement growth in the region surrounding Addis Ababa and their impact on peri-urban agriculture using an urban spatial scenario design model. The effects of two population density scenarios are explored within the framework of a proposed master plan. The model output was used to estimate areas of different suitability levels that would be lost to the modelled settlement expansion. The settlement area in 2038 would represent 29% of the case study’s total area in the low-density scenario but only 19% in the high-density scenario. Compared to the low-density scenario, the high-density scenario would only require a third of the agricultural land transformed into settlement areas. Settlement development would contribute to higher losses of land suitable for cultivating important export products, high nutritional value and import-substituting products. The scenario approach can support sustainable regional planning for settlement expansion that conserves valuable farmland in the peri-urban area and contributes to building capacity for strategic planning of the city regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers’ management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., “trend”, “positive” and “negative” future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the “trend” and “positive” scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders’ knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Geocraft as a Means to Support the Development of Smart Cities, Getting the People of the Place Involved - Youth Included -

Purpose: In this paper we present Geocraft, a Geo-ICT framework meant to provide the information needed to support the development of smart cities in an accessible and user-friendly way. We explored whether Geocraft could be an effective way to get the people of the place, especially youth, involved in geospatial issues.Methodology/Approach:Geocraft is a virtual environment in which we import real geospatial data into the gaming environment of the popular computer game Minecraft. In Geocraft, we can run real-time impact models to virtually simulate ánd visualise future developments and their implications, providing the user with relevant information during design processes. Geocraft is linked to Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs); data generated or added in Geocraft can upgrade existing databases and SDIs. In four use cases, Geocraft is used by children and high school students to address spatial planning challenges with the help of Geocraft.Findings: Geocraft has an appropriate level of abstraction to effectively represent the real world. The use of Geocraft enhances insight in geospatial relations and can raise awareness and insights in a number of geospatial issues. Geocraft can be used to collect the ideas of citizens, in this case children, and engage them in urban planning issues to raise solutions that can reckon on public support. Geocraft can engage thousands of children working on the same geospatial project in the same online Geocraft world. Spatial scenarios designed in Geocraft can be effectively translated into a feasible spatial design and be imported to the digital environment of professional designers. Moreover, Geocraft turned out to be a valuable educational tool to develop typical 21th century skills: communicating, finding and evaluating information, creating and innovating, collaborating and problem solving.We conclude that as an easy to use smart visualisation tool, in which everybody can build future scenarios, Geocraft can be used to get the people of the place involved with geospatial issues.Research Limitation/implication: We present qualitative research results. In the next step, we will investigate how statistically significant the improvements in learning skills are.Originality/Value of paper: This paper presents a new digital environment facilitating citizen participation and educational processes. We use actual spatial data to transform physical reality into a parallel and playable virtual version of that reality. Herein we can simulate spatial processes and support collaboration. By doing so, we can provide unique visualizations of complex processes, raising insights across the borders of disciplines in an user-friendly way.

A spatial explicit scenario method to support participative regional land-use decisions regarding economic and ecological options of short rotation coppice (SRC) for renewable energy production on arable land: case study application for the G\xf6ttingen district, Germany

BackgroundRenewable energy (RE) production is a land-use driver with increasing impact on landscape configuration and a matter of controversial debate. Woody biomass cropping provides an opportunity to interlink RE supply with spatial planning goals, RE concepts and rural development programmes since it tackles several issues, ranging from climate or soil protection to over food production and income diversification as well as new and additional regional value cluster. Participatory scenario generation supported by interactive visualization tools facilitates the development of joint goals regarding local land-use decisions.MethodsBased on a stakeholder dialogue in the rural district of Göttingen, two scenarios were quantified and analysed. Reflecting a farmer-oriented economic perspective in (a) “Income first” and an integration of economic and ecological aspects in (b) “Ecological benefits”, the two scenarios address opportunities and constraints of poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) in comparison to three common crop rotations in the case study area. Suitable SRC parcels were determined by linking yield modelling results of annual reference crops and poplar SRC with ecological indicators of water-induced soil erosion and ecotone density as well as with annuity calculation and a risk assessment (stochastic dominance) based on the Monte Carlo simulation of price and yield fluctuation.ResultsSRC was economically superior (stochastically first-order dominant) to all three reference crop rotations (oilseed rape-wheat-barley; maize-wheat-maize-wheat; oilseed rape-wheat-wheat) on 1800 ha or 4.9% of the arable land. With a positive annuity difference ranging between 63 and 236€ ha−1 a−1 SRC provides an opportunity to diversify farmers’ income. The primary energy supply from the suitable land parcels accounted for 130 GWh a−1 or 8% of the RE supply in 2030 strived for by local climate protection goals. Around 50% of the 1800 ha are suitable as focal areas for a joint consideration of farmers’ income, erosion protection and structural enrichment. The related average economic trade-off on annuity differences for the gain of substantially increased ecological benefits is about 17€ ha−1 a−1 (13%).ConclusionsLinking ecological criteria assessment with dynamic investment calculation and risk evaluation in a joint methodology revealed that SRC is an economic viable alternative for renewable energy production and can provide ecological synergies in terms of erosion protection and structural enrichment. The presented methodology is transferrable and allows to visualize stakeholder-based scenarios with an agreed identification of opportunities and constraints that come with SRC on arable land. This helps to better integrate local land-use decisions with formal and informal spatial planning goals.

Finding Optimal Team for Multiskill Task Based on Vehicle Sensors Data

These days, with the increasingly widespread employment of sensors, particularly those attached to vehicles, the collection of spatial data is becoming easier and more accurate. As a result, many relevant areas, such as spatial crowdsourcing, are gaining ever more attention. A typical spatial crowdsourcing scenario involves an employer publishing a task and some workers helping to accomplish it. However, most of previous studies have only considered the spatial information of workers and tasks, while ignoring individual variations among workers. In this paper, we consider the Software Development Team Formation (SDTF) problem, which aims to assemble a team of workers whose abilities satisfy the requirements of the task. After showing that the problem is NP-hard, we propose three greedy algorithms and a multiple-phase algorithm to approximately solve the problem. Extensive experiments are conducted on synthetic and real datasets, and the results verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithms.

Real Time Spatial Delphi: Fast convergence of experts' opinions on the territory

Considering the advantages of the online consultation methodologies and the potential of WebGIS technology, we introduce a novel real-time Delphi technique, which exploits the features of two existing methods: Real Time Delphi and Spatial Delphi. This new technique, called Real Time Spatial Delphi, preserves most of the advantages of both methods, minimizes the disadvantages, and develops new potential. A panel of experts, suitably chosen according to the application, answers a geo-questionnaire by placing points on an online interactive map and presenting written arguments. The system automatically calculates and displays a circle representing the convergence of the opinions, which shrinks and moves in real-time. The final result is the delimitation of an area most suitable for a given action or for the occurrence of a future event and is immediately usable for decision support and/or spatial scenario building without any processing. We applied this technique to the zoning of street prostitution in Italy and identified several areas inside five municipalities where the zoning was considered most appropriate by the experts. This new Delphi method represents an innovative way of eliciting experts' opinions regarding a simple and intuitive platform, which is potentially applicable to a very broad spectrum of forecast/decision making issues.

Priority areas for the conservation of perennial plants in China

With over 35,000 higher plants recorded, China is among the countries with the highest plant diversity. However, due to increasing human population, land-use intensification, and economic development, the habitat of most species is under considerable threat. Here we develop conservation priority maps covering all of China based on plant species distribution models in combination with spatially explicit decision making tools for systematic conservation planning. Our aim was to find spatial scenarios that maximize the success of conservation goals while minimizing the required land area to achieve these goals, so that economic development can proceed with minimal damage to existing biodiversity resources. We built species distribution models for 7427 vascular plant species at a 10×10′ resolution covering whole China, using geo-referenced herbarium collections and detailed environmental data, corrected for spatial bias using a null model. Based on these models we mapped: (1) species richness centers for common species (3535), endemic species (1965) and Chinese red list species (1927); (2) priority areas for conservation, distinguishing between conservation targets for common species (15% of the predicted suitable habitat), endemic species (25% the predicted suitable habitat) and red list species (35% the predicted suitable habitat); and (3) downscaled land-use pattern in each priority area for conservation. Clear priorities for the development of a sustainable and feasible biodiversity conservation strategy can now be provided based on our maps at national and regional levels.

Motivations and attitudes to (not) take action for climate change adaptation in protected areas

PurposeImplementing climate change adaptation measures immediately is considered both to minimize considerably negative impacts on biodiversity as well as on outdoor recreation in protected area management. This study aims to give answers, why, however, climate change issues receive very limited implementation by practitioners in day-to-day-management.Design/methodology/approachUsing a motivation model by Rheinberg (2006), a more differentiated understanding was gained why stakeholders took almost no action regarding climate change adaptation. A participatory spatial scenario method including a map exercise was used to motivate stakeholders to develop, discuss, exchange and negotiate strategies under different possible future developments and their implementation in protected area management.FindingsAccording to the motivation model, taking action is dependent on a number of factors and will only happen when all correlations are positive. It can be shown that for adaptation to climate change, concerning almost all of the various factors, no stimuli existed or actors expected a positive outcome when taking action. More motivation was generated for halting the loss of biodiversity and visitor management. In the participatory spatial scenario planning work, stakeholders from different sectors and decision-makers found consensus to implement integrated strategies, considering adaptation to climate change, reduction of greenhouse gases, better protection of biodiversity and different future developments in outdoor recreation activities.Originality/valueThe paper demonstrates the importance of single motivation factors such as perceived competence, abilities to act and perceived positive outcomes including rewards for taking action. Using participatory spatial scenario planning methods can be powerful tools to stimulate joint action, though implementing organizations must be willing to make real use of the outcome of such work.

Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080–2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

PV-Installable Capacity in Medium-Voltage and Low-Voltage Distribution Networks with Optimal Line-Drop Compensation Parameters

AbstractTo reduce greenhouse gases, the high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation has been greatly anticipated in Japan. However, local distribution networks face voltage-rise problems when numerous PV systems are connected. In particular, rooftop-type PVs on detached houses can be widely installed in Japan. In that case, the voltage rise in low-voltage wires or service wires is significant because of the high resistance of these wires. In terms of network operators, spatial distribution scenarios for PV installation cannot be prespecified because each PV installation is determined by the particular customer. This paper evaluates PV-installable capacity from a systematic perspective under voltage constraints in medium- and low-voltage networks with a consideration of voltage control equipment [under-load tap changer (ULTC) and step voltage regulator (SVR)]. Through the use of optimal parameters for ULTC and SVR, PV-installable capacity can be improved. In particular, PV-installable capacity around ...

Limnothrissa miodon (Boulenger, 1906) in Lake Kariba: daily ration and population food consumption estimates, and potential application to predict the fish stock biomass from prey abundance

The offshore pelagic niche in Lake Kariba is mainly occupied by the Tanganyika sardine, Limnothrissa miodon, commonly called ‘kapenta’, which is a mainly zooplanktivorous clupeid fish. The population dynamics of kapenta fluctuate seasonally in synchrony with the physical processes that shape the trophic status of the lake. Diel feeding periodicity and mean stomach fullness of L. miodon were used to estimate the daily ration and food consumption rates of the population. The daily ration (R d) was estimated from mean stomach contents and evacuation rates calculated using the modified Bajkov (Trans Am Fish Soc 65:288–289, 1935) formula. Data on stomach contents present at different time intervals over continuous feeding cycles under experimental conditions were analysed. The results show a daily ration of 8.8–9.9% of fresh body weight day−1. The estimated whole population food consumption rate suggests very efficient grazing. The present data enable estimations of the potential standing biomass of L. miodon sustained by the lake under known zooplankton biomass regimes. This basis can be utilised further in future work focusing on spatial and temporal dynamics and climate change scenarios to provide a realistic food consumption estimate for the L. miodon population in Lake Kariba and similar artificial reservoirs.

The effects of growth, shrinkage, population aging and preference shifts on urban development—A spatial scenario analysis of Berlin, Germany

We observe diverse urban development trends in European cities, with processes such as population aging, growth, shrinkage, and reurbanization having unclear consequences on land use and the urban form. The effects of these processes are especially difficult to determine when they occur quickly and simultaneously. We use varying scenarios of contrasting and exceeding variants of these urban development trends to uncover possible interactions by focusing on demographic and residential preference shifts that were simulated in a previously presented land use model (Lauf et al., 2012). Using urban form indicators and landscape metrics, we determine urban to peri-urban effects. Among other interesting results, we discovered that population aging expedited by population shrinkage greatly affects land consumption. This effect is especially pronounced in the outer city due to the residential preferences of elderly people and thereby reduces urban shrinkage. In contrast, a shift in preferences toward reurbanization reduces land consumption significantly. Population aging produces synergies in terms of urban growth and landscape fragmentation and trade-offs in terms of urban shrinkage and compactness, and the opposite holds for increasing reurbanization.

Maximizing Conservation and Production with Intensive Forest Management: It's All About Location.

Functional zoning has been suggested as a way to balance the needs of a viable forest industry with those of healthy ecosystems. Under this system, part of the forest is set aside for protected areas, counterbalanced by intensive and extensive management of the rest of the forest. Studies indicate this may provide adequate timber while minimizing road construction and favoring the development of large mature and old stands. However, it is unclear how the spatial arrangement of intensive management areas may affect the success of this zoning. Should these areas be agglomerated or dispersed throughout the forest landscape? Should managers prioritize (a) proximity to existing roads, (b) distance from protected areas, or (c) site-specific productivity? We use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model to examine the effects of different spatial scenarios on landscape structure, connectivity for native forest wildlife, stand diversity, harvest volume, and road construction: (1) random placement of intensive management areas, and (2-8) all possible combinations of rules (a)-(c). Results favor the agglomeration of intensive management areas. For most wildlife species, connectivity was the highest when intensive management was far from the protected areas. This scenario also resulted in relatively high harvest volumes. Maximizing distance of intensive management areas from protected areas may therefore be the best way to maximize the benefits of intensive management areas while minimizing their potentially negative effects on forest structure and biodiversity.

Mapping policies and programmes: the use of GIS to communicate spatial relationships in England

It has long been acknowledged that there is a gap between the advancement of GIS in the research field and its application in planning practice. This paper demonstrates the potential for employing simple GIS mapping overlays as a way of communicating complex planning issues in a ‘language’ that is easily understandable and effective at stimulating policy debate, critical thinking, and learning. The analysis focuses on capturing the synergies and conflicts in two key planning challenges in England, progrowth and housing delivery agendas. In a political context where spatial evidence-based policy making has been eroded in recent years, the analysis demonstrates the need for policy makers to ‘think spatially, act spatially’ when developing different policies and programmes. The paper concludes that only by making spatial relationships of policies and programmes explicit in a manner that is easily understood by a range of actors, can different spatial scenarios and metaphors of future opportunities and challenges be developed to inform long-range development and planning.