Evolution Of Spatial Patterns Research Articles

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Driving Forces of Reservoirs on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

Revealing the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of reservoirs and their driving mechanisms is of great significance for promoting the coordinated development of the national economy and natural ecology. In this study, the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) in Xinjiang was selected as the study area. Based on remote sensing data from 1990 to 2020, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of reservoirs on the NSTM in the past 30 years were analyzed using the grid cells method and the nuclear density analysis method, and the mechanisms by which natural geographical conditions and socio-economic development influence the temporal and spatial evolution of reservoirs in the NSTM were analyzed using GeoDetector. The results indicate the following: (1) In terms of temporal change, the area of reservoirs in the NSTM showed an overall expansion trend from 1990 to 2020, with a growth rate of 42.77%, and the number of reservoirs increased from 123 to 238 during the same period, with a growth rate of 93.50%. (2) In terms of spatial change, the distribution of reservoir accumulation areas on the NSTM gradually developed horizontally from the middle section with rapid economic development to the western and eastern sections. (3) The GeoDetector results showed that the main driving factors affecting the spatial differentiation of reservoir area in the NSTM from 1990 to 2020 were the average elevation (0.201), cultivated land area (0.112), and GDP (0.070), while the main driving factors combinations were the average elevation and cultivated land area (0.374), the average elevation and GDP (0.325), and the average elevation and average population (0.319). The research results can provide a theoretical basis and a decision-making reference for water conservancy project planning and water resources management in the NSTM.

Spatial Morphology Evolution of Rural Settlements in the Lower Yellow River Plain: The Case of Menggang Town in Changyuan City, China

This study investigated the spatial pattern evolution of the rural settlement system in the town of Menggang, China, based on settlement patches extracted from remote sensing data for four time points between 1990 and 2018. Five typical villages were selected to study their spatial textures from point to surface. The reasons for the evolution of the rural settlements were examined as well. The results indicated that the number of settlement patches in Menggang decreased, the area of a single patch expanded, and the scale of the rural settlements continued to expand. Settlements were distributed randomly, but an agglomeration trend began to appear. The plain terrain had little restriction on settlement site selection. Cofferdams and embankments were the limiting factors for settlement expansion, which led to the compact development of the settlements. Economic development, population growth, and family miniaturization were positive factors for the expansion of the rural settlements. In the typical villages, cluster settlements and cluster settlements with a banded tendency had higher spatial utilization efficiency. Several high-density building centers were formed in the settlements, and the trend of residential buildings was mainly northeast–southwest. The plain terrain had little effect on the orientation of buildings, single-building areas, or the public spaces of the settlements. Traditional culture and traffic routes affected the orientation of the main buildings of folk houses. This study has theoretical and reference value for the structure optimization and sustainable development of rural settlements in the lower Yellow River plain.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in the GBA Based on PLUS–InVEST Models

In the context of sustainable development and dual-carbon construction, in order to clarify the future changes in land use and carbon storage in the GBA, this study used the PLUS and InVEST models as well as Geoda software to simulate and predict the spatial development pattern of land use as well as the changes in carbon stocks in the GBA in 2030 under multiple scenarios. The results show that (1) From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage decreased year by year. (2) In 2030, except for the EPS, the future carbon storage prediction values of the remaining scenarios are lower than those in 2020, especially the carbon storage prediction value under the EDS, which is the lowest at 8.65 × 108 t. (3) The spatial distribution of carbon storage in the GBA has significant spatial heterogeneity. The high-value areas of carbon storage are distributed in the east and west wings as well as southwest of the GBA, while the low-value areas are concentrated in the middle and east. The research results can provide a reasonable scientific basis for the territorial space resource planning of the GBA under the goal of “dual carbon”.

Spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of rural production-living-ecological space in Pingtan islands, China

With the continuous penetration of global networking and post-industrialism, the island rural spatial evolution becomes an important issue in comprehensive geography. Studying the microscale evolution and driving mechanism of island rural space is of great significance for promoting its reconstruction and revitalizing island rural communities. This paper constructed a classification system of island rural space from the production-living-ecological perspective. Taking Beigang Village located in China's southeast coast as an example, we analyzed the dynamic mechanism of island rural spatial evolution from traditional agricultural space to multi-functional composite space. The findings indicated that the drastic evolution and reconstruction occurred in the production-living-ecological space of Beigang from 2006 to 2021, manifested as the following aspects: production space was expanded to the outward tourist service space from inward agricultural production space, living space was evolved into commercial space from daily space to provide tourism services, and ecological space was constantly compacted and expanded in tourist development construction and ecological redline regulation. The island rural spatial pattern evolution was the result of the game among policy, capital, society, and organization, manifested as internal roles and external feedback of governmental policy guidance, tourism capital incentive, innovation of business philosophy, and grassroots organizational initiative. During the process, evolution characteristics from simpleness to complexity and from singleness to integration were present in island rural spatial functions. Meanwhile, tourism capital intervention was a key element to facilitate island rural spatial commercialization. A crucial way to avoid island rural spatial alienation and realize rural revitalization was to improve rural resilience. Overall, this study offered a model to delve into the island rural spatial evolution in China or even developing countries around the world.

Isolated or Colocated? Exploring the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Pattern and Influencing Factors of the Attractiveness of Residential Areas to Restaurants in the Central Urban Area

Catering and urban elements have a strong spatial association. The spatial clustering and dispersal patterns of catering can effectively influence cities’ economic and socio-spatial reconfiguration. This research first introduced the concept of the ARTR (the attractiveness of residential areas to restaurants) and measured its value as well as its spatial and temporal evolutionary patterns using global and local colocation quotients. The DBSCAN algorithm and spatial hot-spot analysis were used to analyze their spatial evolution patterns. On this basis, a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to analyze the scale of and spatial variation in the drivers. The results show that (1) Nanjing’s ARTR is at a low level, with the most significant decline in ARTR occurring from 2005 to 2020 for MRs and HRs, while LRs did not significantly respond to urban regeneration. (2) The spatial layout of the ARTR in Nanjing has gradually evolved from a circular structure to a semi-enclosed structure, and the circular structure has continued to expand outward. At the same time, the ARTR for different levels of catering shows a diverse distribution in the margins. (3) Urban expansion and regeneration have led to increasingly negative effects of the clustering level, commercial competition, economic level and neighborhood newness, while the density of the road network has been more stable. (4) The road network density has consistently remained a global influence. Commercial diversity has changed from a local factor to a global factor, while economic and locational factors have strongly spatially non-smooth relationships with the ARTR. The results of this study can provide a basis for a harmonious relationship between catering and residential areas in the context of urban expansion and regeneration.

From Productive Landscape to Agritouristic Landscape? The Evidence of an Agricultural Heritage System—Zhejiang Huzhou Mulberry-Dyke and Fish-Pond System

Agricultural Heritage Systems exhibit multiple functions of agricultural production, ecological protection, and invaluable cultures and landscapes. The mulberry-dyke and fish-pond system is an important agricultural heritage. The Nanxun District of Huzhou, China is currently the area with the most complete and largest mulberry dykes and fish ponds in the world. In the past thirty years, with changes in labor force distribution and consumer demand, the production function of mulberry dyke and fish ponds has been challenged, and the production landscape as the carrier of farming culture has been threatened. Studying the spatial characteristics and optimization of mulberry dykes and fish ponds is of great significance to the sustainable development of the regional economy, culture, and environment. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern evolution of mulberry dyke and fish ponds in Nanxun District since 1975. Based on the evaluation of the environmental carrying capacity of fish ponds, and according to the development goals of agricultural heritage inheritance and “planting and breeding balance”, the Future Land Use Simulation model is adopted to optimize the study area. The results show the following findings: (1) From 1975 to 2019, fish ponds and construction land increased significantly, mulberry fields and paddy fields decreased significantly, the scale of mulberry dykes and fish ponds decreased significantly, and the proportion of mulberry dykes and fish ponds was seriously unbalanced; (2) The overall scale of fish-pond breeding in Nanxun District is too large, and the proportion of farming and breeding needs to be adjusted; (3) In view of economic growth, cultural inheritance, and environmental protection, this paper simulates the spatial layout of mulberry dykes and fish ponds in 2035, and divides mulberry dykes and fish ponds in Nanxun District into a display area and an industrial development area. The display area restores the traditional mulberry dykes and fish ponds to the greatest extent. The industrial development zone maximizes the economic benefits of agriculture on the basis of “balancing planting and breeding”. Overall, this study provides a reference for protecting Huzhou mulberry-dyke and fish-pond agricultural heritage, optimizing agricultural production space, balancing human–environment relationship, and promoting regional sustainable development.

Characteristics, Drivers, and Development Modes of Rural Space Commercialization under Different Altitude Gradients: The Case of the Mountain City of Chongqing

The spatial commercialization of rural areas is essential to achieve rural reconstruction and promote overall rural rejuvenation. Through the use of a land use transfer matrix and kernel density, this study uncovers the pattern characteristics, driving forces, and development patterns of rural spatial commodification at various altitudes, providing a scientific reference for rural spatial usage at various altitudes. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) rural spatial commercialization is the result of land use transformation, and the differences in rural spatial commercialization development patterns lead to different characteristics in the local land use changes; (2) the implementation of urbanization, industrialization, and rural revitalization strategies has promoted the development of rural spatial commercialization to some extent; (3) There are significant differences in the characteristics of the land use change and the development pattern of rural space commercialization at various altitudes. The areas below 500 m are mainly for recreational projects that have a repeatable consumption and that are distributed in a concentrated and continuous manner. For such areas, the agglomeration effect should be taken full advantage of, and thus they should be developed in groups. The areas between 500 and 1000 m serve mainly the surrounding residents; the mode is based on the leisure and recreational projects with a block-shaped spatial distribution. In such areas, branded rural spaces with special features should be created. The areas above 1000 m are used primarily to construct tourist attractions and are dispersed in a point pattern. In such areas, the transportation conditions should be improved and the rural resources revitalized by designing reasonable travel routes.

The Spatial Mismatch between Tourism Resources and Economic Development in Mountainous Cities Impacted by Limited Highway Accessibility: A Typical Case Study of Lhasa City, Tibet Autonomous Region, China

We studied the misalignment between tourism resources and economic development in mountainous cities in the context of limited highway network accessibility. Using Lhasa City as a case study, we illustrated how to evaluate tourism resources and economic development and how to improve tourism resources and promote economic development. The tourism resources possessed by tourism destinations are prerequisites for tourism activities. This study focuses on the coupling coordination relationship between the degree of superiority in tourism resources and the level of economic development in Lhasa City. Data from Lhasa City in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were compared to explore a way of optimizing the spatial pattern of tourism development. The results of this study are as follows. (1) As a typical mountainous area on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the accessibility of Lhasa’s mountainous area largely influences the choice of tourist destinations and is also an important indicator for evaluating the degree of tourism resource superiority. (2) On the whole, the economic development of Lhasa City and the degree of tourism resource superiority is not coordinated, mainly in the low coupling coordination stage, and with the passage of time, the degree of coupling coordination gradually becomes weaker. (3) If a town has advantageous tourism resources with slow economic development, it is easy to fall into the “resource curse” dilemma. In addition, if a town has poor tourism resources, it will be reduced to an outflow area of population and resources after leaving the investment drive, and easy to fall into the dilemma of the “poverty trap”.

Identification and Analysis of Territorial Spatial Utilization Conflicts in Yibin Based on Multidimensional Perspective

The measurement of territorial spatial conflict degrees and the identification of conflict areas are important issues in the field of regional development planning. The scientific and comprehensive recognition and measurement of territorial spatial utilization conflicts, from a multidimensional perspective, are significant for the optimization of reasonable land use and the realization of sustainable spatial development in various regions. In this study, the territorial spatial development and utilization conflicts in Yibin were measured and analyzed in terms of the development intensity, landscape pattern index, and spatial suitability from a multidimensional perspective of the “upper limit-structure-bottom line” perspective of territorial spaces. Certain corresponding development strategies were proposed, and some major conclusions could be drawn: (1) In terms of the development intensity, the developable intensity value for most townships in Yibin is lower than the minimum developable intensity value, indicating their fine development potential in the future. However, the current development intensity of a few townships is higher than the maximum developable intensity value. These townships can be divided into topographic restricted zones, urban concentrated zones, and natural reserves. (2) In terms of landscape conflict, areas with mild, moderate, and severe conflict in the southern region of Yibin decreased significantly from 1990 to 2018, and severe conflict areas in the middle and northern regions decreased; however, moderate and mild conflict areas increased. Potential ecological conflict risks to the landscape cannot be ignored. (3) For spatial suitability, urban spatial conflict areas, agricultural spatial conflict areas, urban–ecological spatial conflict areas, and agricultural–ecological spatial conflict areas were recognized according to a comparison of the utilization status and suitability assessment results. (4) According to estimation results of three types of conflicts, townships in Yibin were divided into eight types of conflicts: (1) conflict caused by improper urban planning to squeeze ecological spaces and replace agricultural spaces; (2) conflict caused by extensive and disordered agricultural development; (3) conflict controlled by the squeezing of ecological spaces; (4) conflict controlled by the encroachment of ecological spaces; (5) conflict caused by backward urbanization; (6) conflict caused by low-level agricultural development; (7) conflict caused by overall development hysteresis; and (8) conflict caused by a shortage of development space. This study has some theoretical and practical implications for a comprehensive understanding of territorial spatial development patterns and their degrees, the scientific recognition and trade-off of multidimensional territorial spatial utilization conflicts, and realizing sustainable development in certain regions.

Green finance network evolution and prediction: fresh evidence from China

Green finance has become an important reform force to promote the sustainable development of China's economy. Therefore, it has a great significance for in-depth analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of regional green finance development, to further promote it by clarifying and predicting the regional differences and dynamic evolution trends. Based on this, this paper will select the relevant index from 2001 to 2020 to construct China Green Finance Core Network (CGFCN) in different years by using Space-L method at the first, then analyze its network characteristics and spatial evolution pattern in depth, and finally predict the future development trend of CGFCN by link prediction. The research results show that: firstly, the evolution of CGFCN is mainly divided into three stages: rapid development, stable development and optimal development, and the closeness of CGFCN is constantly improving. Besides, two strong relationship networks are gradually forming, that is Beijing-Tianjin region and the Yangtze River Detla region. Secondly, with the development of green finance, the community division has changed. It is mainly divided into four communities, named the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei leading community, the eastern provincial community, the Yangtze River Delta community and the central and southern joint community. Different communities will have different integration in different periods. Thirdly, the future development direction of green finance network is mainly Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta regions, and their outward radiation are mainly shown in the eastern coastal and central regions, which also have strong development potential. In this regard, it is proposed to coordinate development across provinces to speed up the "urban integration" of green finance services; Establish an efficient community development mechanism and promote the interconnection of green finance markets and infrastructure between different regions; Strengthen the resource flow among regions and coordinate the resource competition of green finance.

Graph-based spatial pattern multi-type change detection

Long-term spatial pattern analysis becomes an important and effective way of monitoring the interactions between land covers and associated evolutions over time, which removes disturbance and uncertainty and has considerable benefits for dynamic, cyclical geographical processes. The time series images with time–space continuity hold unique advantages for tracing spatial pattern evolution and discovering the evolutionary regulations and mechanisms underlying in history archive. However, current research is inadequate in characterizing spatial patterns with spatial relations and is limited in change types mining from evolving spatial patterns. This study hence proposed a novel algorithm for detecting multi-type changes in spatial patterns (MTCD) with graph change analysis. Specially, 1) we designed a frequent graph cell extraction method to construct the spatial pattern evolution graph (SPEG) based on time-series land cover images; 2) a graph coding method was developed to represent SPEG digitally and convert it into the graph-encoded time series; 3) a graph change mining method was proposed to detect the changing types of graph-encoded time series for stable, cyclic, and dominant change. The Landsat land cover time series of Datong, Shanxi Province, China, was adopted to validate the MTCD algorithm. Results show our algorithm's effectiveness in simultaneously capturing three typical types of spatial pattern change at different spatial scales. The MTCD provides an essential step toward analyzing changing geographical patterns and graph structure.

A Study on the Measurement of Comparative Advantage of Land Use Efficiency, Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Its Influencing Factors—An Empirical Test from the Panel Data of China’s Provincial Sub-Industry Types

The comparative advantage of land use efficiency can provide effective support for upgrading the industrial structure and optimizing the allocation of land resources. According to the agricultural industry and non-agricultural industry, the evaluation index system of land use efficiency is constructed by difference. By using China’s provincial panel data in 2010, 2015 and 2019 as an empirical test and comprehensively employing the comparative advantage model, GIS spatial analysis model, geographical weighted regression model and other algorithms, the land use efficiency and the comparative advantage were measured and evaluated to explore the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns and identify the influencing factors. The results showed the following: (1) The overall efficiency of agricultural land grew steadily, with regional differences transforming from expanding to narrowing, forming a gradually decreasing overall trend from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, and from the eastern plain to the western plateau. The overall efficiency of non-agricultural land was generally low, presenting an overall growth trend, and regional differences were progressively expanding, still showing a gradually decreasing trend in the eastern, central and western regions. (2) The overall comparative advantage of agricultural land efficiency showed a gradual decline trend, and the differences between regions were further narrowed. The high-value regions were still concentrated in the regions with superior agricultural resource endowment and showed a dominant advantage of the agricultural industry. The overall comparative advantage of non-agricultural land efficiency showed an increasing trend. The high-value areas were concentrated in urban agglomeration, metropolitan areas and other areas with high non-agricultural land efficiency, as well as the vast remote areas such as the northwest and southwest where the agricultural land efficiency was extremely low and the comparative advantage of non-agricultural land efficiency improved. (3) The spatial concentration of the comparative advantage of agricultural land and non-agricultural land efficiency was not obvious, which indicates that the comparative advantage of industrial land in China has not yet formed a trend of agglomeration development, but there were dense and obvious high-high agglomeration areas or low–low agglomeration areas in some local regions. (4) Significant regional differences were found to exist in the impact of various factors on the comparative advantages of agricultural land efficiency and non-agricultural land efficiency. The comparative advantage of land use efficiency can be relied on to promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure and guide the efficient allocation of land resources.

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Influencing Factors, and Spillover Effects of the Urban–Rural Income Gap in Chongqing Municipality, China

In addition to being necessary for the stability, coordination, and sustainable growth of the national economy, narrowing the urban–rural income gap is also an “Important national matter” for the long-term security of the nation. “Big mountain areas, big cities, big reservoir areas, big rural areas, and ethnic areas” are all present in the municipality of Chongqing. All of the poverty-stricken counties have been lifted out of poverty, despite the promotion of targeted poverty alleviation and other policies, significant urban–rural income gaps remain. In view of the current research, there has been no in-depth discussion on the correlation between urban and rural income gap and poverty levels in various regions, and there has been no in-depth discussion on the spatial correlation and spillover effects of various influencing factors. This paper employs panel data from 2010 to 2021 for 37 counties in Chongqing; based on an analysis of the characteristics of the urban–rural income gap’s spatial pattern and spatio-temporal evolution, it classifies each county (city and district) as either a non-poverty or poverty-stricken county and uses spatial econometric models to conduct an in-depth study of the influencing factors and spillover effects of the urban–rural income gap in Chongqing. The outcomes of our analysis of the influencing factors reveal that the level of fixed assets investment, the per capita spending of public funds, the proportion of rural employees, the proportion of grain sowing, the amount of agricultural fertilizer applied per unit area, the proportion of real estate development investment, and population density variables are important causes of the URIG in Chongqing. The spillover effects of these factors vary between poverty-stricken and non-poverty-stricken counties. This paper aims to provide reference to policymakers to design measures to narrow the urban–rural income gap and advance the urban–rural coordinated development strategy on the basis of a thorough examination of the spatial and temporal evolution, influencing variables, and spillover effects of the urban–rural income gap in Chongqing.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Hydropower Development on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is rich in hydropower resources for China, and the development of these has an important impact on the sustainable development of the plateau. However, the research on the pattern and processes of hydropower development on the plateau is still lacking. Using both field investigation and collected data, we evaluated the density and intensity of hydropower development on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years. The spatial and temporal patterns of hydropower development were analyzed by applying exploratory spatial data analysis methods to study the spatial aggregation of hydropower development on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau since 1980. The results show that: (1) Hydropower development on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau can be divided into four stages—(i) pre-1980, at the beginning of development, with a small number of power stations and a small installed capacity; (ii) the period from 1980 to 2005, which was dominated by small hydropower developments, and the number of hydropower stations increased seven-fold; (iii) the 2005–2014 period, which saw large-scale cascade development; and (iv) post-2014, when hydropower development mode changed from quantity-led to scale-led. (2) Significant differences in hydropower development areas on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau regarding the density and intensity of development from east to west are constantly decreasing. (3) The increase in hydropower development density in the past 40 years is mainly due to the increasing aggregation effect of hydropower development absorption in the eastern region (the aggregation effect of western counties has not been shown). (4) While low hydropower development intensity is found in most areas of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, attention must be given to river protection problems in the eastern high-intensity areas; failure to do so will increase the aggregation effect of hydropower development aggregation and, ultimately, affect the sustainable development of the regional development of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

The temporal and spatial pattern evolution of provincial industrial carbon intensity under the carbon neutral target: evidence from China.

Industry is a core area to achieve the carbon neutrality target for most developing countries including China. Hence, it is of great practical significance to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of China's industrial carbon intensity and its evolution. The exploratory spatial data analysis methods were adopted to conduct global and local spatial correlation analysis in this paper. The result shows that (1) the industrial carbon emission intensity decreases year by year, with high industrial carbon emission intensity in the West and low in the East. (2) There is a correlation in the spatial distribution of industrial carbon intensity, with the Moran index experiencing the stage of descending first and then ascending. (3) The local spatial clustering of industrial carbon intensity is obvious. (4) Half of the provinces have experienced a leap, with the majority located in the western part of China. Based on these findings, it is concluded that industrial emission reduction policy synergy between provinces is particularly important, such as low-carbon industrial production policy and green industry development policy.

How does manufacturing agglomeration affect high-quality economic development in China?

Innovation, coordination, green initiatives, openness, and sharing are now considered to be essential building blocks for achieving high-quality economic development in China. Using a novel index, we investigate the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on high-quality economic development. Our results revealed the following: (1). The overall level of manufacturing agglomeration has been steadily decreasing, and there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of high-quality development across the country. (2). Manufacturing agglomeration promotes high-quality economic development not only within a region but also in its surrounding areas. However, different regions exhibit different spatial effects. (3). While manufacturing agglomeration simultaneously promotes economic growth, innovation, openness, and sharing between local and neighboring regions, it hinders local coordination and restrains green development in both local and neighboring regions. Overall, our findings provide timely policy evaluations on new policy trends in China.

Measurement of China's green development level and its spatial differentiation in the context of carbon neutrality.

China's green development in the context of carbon neutrality is facing both new constraints and new practices. In the new situation, it is crucial to further refine the indicator system and re-measure green development. Based on previous studies and carbon neutral background, the theoretical framework of green development is improved and an indicator system is constructed, and the panel entropy method, Thiel index and Moran index are used to measure and analyze green development level and its spatial evolution pattern in China from 2010 to 2019. The study shows that: (1) China's green development level is on the rise and its growth rate is high, and it generally shows a spatial distribution pattern of northeast >east > west > central, and the fastest growth rate in the east; (2) There are some spatial differences in green development level in China and the spatial differences are gradually narrowing, while only the spatial differences in the green wealth index and the inter-regional differences in the green growth index are slightly expanding; (3) There is no obvious spatial clustering phenomenon in China's green development level as a whole, and there is a positive spatial matching relationship between green development level and green wealth index and green growth index locally, which does not form a close correlation with green welfare index. The study proposes countermeasures based on stimulating the endogenous power of green development and narrowing the regional differences of green growth index, which are of reference value for China to promote green development in the context of carbon neutrality.

Spatial patterns of tourism development in Germany

Tourism is one of the most important and dynamic sectors of the world's economy. However, the coronavirus pandemic in 2020–2021 caused significant losses in the tourism industry. The pandemic has also significantly affected the tourism development in Germany, which is one of the world's leading tourist destinations. The article analyzes the dynamics of tourism development in Germany in 2012–2022 and calculates the indicator of the integral index of tourism development in the federal states of Germany. The average values of the initial partial indicators for 2018–2022 are taken, to determine the integral index of tourism development level in the federal lands of Germany, which reflect both absolute and relative parameters of tourism growth. Based on the calculated average integrated index of the tourism development level in the federal lands of Germany, the features of spatial differentiation in the tourism development in the country are clarified. The analysis shows that before the coronavirus pandemic, tourism in Germany was significantly developing. The total number of tourist arrivals by 2020 increased annually by more than 20 %. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, their number and tourism revenues halved in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, this indicator and other indicators of the development of the German tourism industry tended to improve. Domestic tourists dominate the total number of tourist arrivals. The calculated average integral index of tourism development in the federal lands showed a significant spatial asymmetry in the levels of development of the German tourism industry. According to this index, the federal lands of Germany are divided into five groups: high, high than average, medium, lower than average, and low tourism development levels. The lands of Berlin and Bavaria have a high level of tourism development. These regions are well-known tourist destinations in Germany. They have a rich cultural heritage, abundant natural resources and attractive landscapes, and a large number of tourist accommodation facilities. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, and Baden-Württemberg have a higher level of tourism development than the national average. These lands are characterised by a large number of tourist overnight stays, accommodation facilities, territorial concentrations, and a high intensity of tourism. The western German lands of Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia have an average level of tourism development. These lands are characterised by high tourist arrivals and the number and capacity of accommodation facilities. However, due to the large area of these territories, they have low indicators of the territorial concentration of tourism activity. Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate, Bremen, Saxony and Brandenburg have a lower level of tourism development than the German average. These regions are characterised by moderate tourism development indicators. The federal lands of Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and Saarland have the lowest level of tourism development due to low volumes of tourist flows and low concentration of accommodation facilities. The German government has introduced several measures to support the tourism industry during the pandemic, including emergency financial assistance, grant support, a special loan program, tax measures, and short-term leave for businesses. It is known that higher tourism development indicators are typical for the lands with the highest level of social and economic development. Tourism is a factor that influences the economic development of both the country and individual federal states. Keywords: integral index of tourism development, Germany, tourism, tourist arrivals, federal state.

Spatial Pattern Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Rural Settlements in Rapidly Urbanized Areas: A Case Study of Jiangning District in Nanjing City, China

Rural settlement is an important part of studying the relationship between humans and land; it is highly significant in revealing the evolution, driving mechanism and reconstruction scheme of rural settlement pattern. In this paper, Jiangning District, a rapidly urbanized area, was selected as a typical case. Using remote sensing image data, the landscape pattern index, the rank-scale law, the local hot spot-detection model, and the geographical-detector were comprehensively used to analyze the rural settlements pattern evolution and driving mechanism in the rapidly urbanized areas. The results are as follows: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the number of rural settlements showed a trend of large-scale reduction, and the settlements scale system was relatively uniform in Jiangning. The settlements scale had the autocorrelation characteristics of spatial agglomeration, and the local hotspot agglomeration pattern was significant. (2) The spatial distribution of rural settlements in Jiangning showed an “agglomeration” pattern, and the settlements density showed a “multi-core” distribution characteristic. (3) The pattern of rural settlements in Jiangning was shaped by natural environmental factors such as topography, water system and cultivated land resources; economic social factors such as agricultural population, per capita GDP, distance from town, and policy and system were the leading factors that promoted the settlements’ pattern evolution in Jiangning, and the interaction between the factors could enhance the interpretation of the settlements’ pattern evolution. The research can provide a reference for optimizing the spatial layout of settlements in rapidly urbanized areas.

Regional Coordinated Development in the Megacity Regions: Spatial Pattern and Driving Forces of the Guangzhou-Foshan Cross-Border Area in China

With globalization and informatization, cross-border areas have become increasingly critical interactive spaces, experiencing rapid development and extensive changes in residents’ cross-border travel, constantly changing the spatial patterns of neighboring cities. However, existing studies lack in-depth discussions of the new spatiotemporal characteristics of human activities, spatial pattern evolution, and the driving factors behind them. Therefore, taking the Guangzhou-Foshan metropolitan area as a case, this paper focus on the analysis of the cross-city travel of residents in these border areas in 2019, and investigated the evolution of spatial patterns and the driving forces in the border area during 1985–2020. We found that, instead of the previous one-way attraction pattern caused by the spread of residence, a large number of cross-city trips for leisure and entertainment purposes emerged, and the one-way unbalanced flow, “Foshan to Guangzhou”, changed to two-way circulation. We also explore the scenario in which the travel behavior of urban dwellers in these two cities considerably interacts with the effect of urban structure to produce the observed mobility patterns. Second, we determined the spatial pattern of the Guangzhou-Foshan region from 1985 to 2020 to be on of spreading expansion, with Liwan District as the central core, connecting to several sub-centers. The cross-border area in the Guangzhou-Foshan region represented a compact, extremely high degree of integration and a well-matched functional space. Third, driven by the forces stemming from the planning guidelines and the improving transportation network construction in the border area, the growth points of the two cities continued to expand toward the borderline regarding integrated development, while the growth axis was mainly in the direction of the city border, urban arterial roads, and subway lines. We concluded with development suggestions for increasing travel interactions and optimizing spatial patterns to build a common vision of the whole Guangzhou-Foshan pattern of integration.