Spatial Multi-criteria Evaluation Research Articles

Toward a disaster risk assessment and mapping in the virtual geographic environment of Armenia

This paper presents the results of a research aiming natural and technological hazard, and risk assessment and mapping in Web-based holistic geographic environment, and the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in Armenia. A common spatial multi-criteria evaluation method was used for natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessments. The virtual geographic environment developed by the authors during the previous period of investigations was upgraded and used for the implementation of this research. It involves the following components: 1. geodatabase, 2. modeling and simulation, 3. interface for digital mapping, 4. metadata, 5. Web–based network service for collaboration. Moreover, the country specific natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessment methods were developed, implemented, and appropriate digital maps were created.

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda.

Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively). Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8%) with no very high susceptibility (0%). Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management.

Strengthening health decision-making at the territorial level: Operational support for spatial multi-criteria evaluation

Version française de l'articleAnimal diseases and zoonoses, infectious diseases that can be transmitted between animals and humans, are a global socio-economic and public health problem. Ensuring the surveillance and control of these diseases implies identifying high risk areas. Maps of these areas can be produced using spatial multi-criteria evaluation, a recent method that is rigorous and quick to implement. Animal health and veterinary public health policymakers are still relatively unfamiliar with this method, but it is suited to regions with little access to reliable epidemiological data, such as low-income countries in the South or disease-free areas. The maps are built with local experts in the regions concerned. They present risk indices combining geographical and environmental data, expert opinions and information from existing studies and surveys. These maps can then be used to better target disease surveillance and control.

Landslide initiation and runout susceptibility modeling in the context of hill cutting and rapid urbanization: a combined approach of weights of evidence and spatial multi-criteria

Rainfall induced landslides are a common threat to the communities living on dangerous hill-slopes in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Extreme population pressure, indiscriminate hill cutting, increased precipitation events due to global warming and associated unplanned urbanization in the hills are exaggerating landslide events. The aim of this article is to prepare a scientifically accurate landslide susceptibility map by combining landslide initiation and runout maps. Land cover, slope, soil permeability, surface geology, precipitation, aspect, and distance to hill cut, road cut, drainage and stream network factor maps were selected by conditional independence test. The locations of 56 landslides were collected by field surveying. A weight of evidence (WoE) method was applied to calculate the positive (presence of landslides) and negative (absence of landslides) factor weights. A combination of analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and fuzzy membership standardization (weighs from 0 to 1) was applied for performing a spatial multi-criteria evaluation. Expert opinion guided the decision rule for AHP. The Flow-R tool that allows modeling landslide runout from the initiation sources was applied. The flow direction was calculated using the modified Holmgren’s algorithm. The AHP landslide initiation and runout susceptibility maps were used to prepare a combined landslide susceptibility map. The relative operating characteristic curve was used for model validation purpose. The accuracy of WoE, AHP, and combined susceptibility map was calculated 96%, 97%, and 98%, respectively.

Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future

Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time.The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility.

Integration of GIS, remote sensing and Multi-Criteria Evaluation tools in the search for healthy walking paths

Today, urban lifestyles lead to people suffering from a variety of illnesses, most of which are caused by a lack of physical activity. Walking is one of the best ways to prevent such illnesses from occurring. In this study, an integration method is proposed to help people choose the most appropriate and healthiest walking paths in the city of Shiraz in Iran. This method was developed based on data captured from remote sensing images and GIS-based analysis, the aim being to apply parameters related to people’s health. The study directs its attention away from merely improving the path-finding method based on the shortest path, and instead analyzes parameters such as the existence of vegetation, reasonable temperatures and the presence of slopes, as well as the diversity of land uses found along road sections to find the optimum path. Paths with these characteristics should motivate people to walk further and for longer, and as a result improve their health. In this research Spatial Multi-criteria Evaluation (SMCE) process was used to determine the healthiest paths. Travel costs for each road section were calculated, to help develop a walkability index, and then by using path-finding analysis within GIS, the healthiest pathway was determined and compared with the shortest one. The proposed method was implemented in a case study. The results show that the simultaneous use of SMCE, remote sensing and GIS techniques along road sections, and the use of appropriate built environment indices, can help provide both urban planners and the public with the data and tools needed to take account of both the length and healthiness of a walking route, plus the services to be found along that route, when choosing to travel within a city.

The Spatial Development Framework for implementation of National Urban Policy

National Urbanization Policies (NUPs) are of particular importance in countries with rapid urbanization. Both for diagnosis for development of NUPs and for planning of implementation of NUPs we present a new methodology called the Spatial Development Framework (SDF). The SDF analyzes and describes with stakeholders the regional structure and interdependencies between settlements and evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of settlements. This is the basis for action planning by national, regional and local stakeholders. We describe the methodology and show the preliminary results of the ongoing implementation of the methodology for the NUP implementation in Rwanda. We discuss the empirical value of the methodology, its integrative nature, the applicability to any spatial policy development and implementation, its data requirements, and its time input requirements. We conclude that the Spatial Development Framework methodology complements NUPs be providing an empirical, integrated and by stakeholders shared understanding of the spatial structure of the country’s settlements and development corridors. It serves realistic urban and regional development planning based on this shared understanding.Keywords—matrix of functions, national urban policy, spatial multi-criteria evaluation, urban and regional planning.

Making space for shellfish farming along the Adriatic coast

Abstract This work focuses on the selection of new areas for shellfish farming along the coast of the Northern Adriatic Sea (Italy). Shellfish site suitability was assessed by means of a methodology based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE), which provided the framework to combine mathematical models and operational oceanography products. Intermediate level criteria considered in the analysis included optimal growth conditions, environmental interactions, and socio-economic evaluation (e.g. organic carbon deposition; distance to harbour). Results showed that the whole coastal area comprised within 0 and 3 nm is highly suitable for farming of mussel, while the area comprised between 3 and 12 nm is divided between a highly suitable northern part, and a less suitable southern one. Seven different scenarios of development of shellfish aquaculture industry were explored. The introduction of a new species, and the assessment of the exposure to storm events are specific aspects taken into account in development scenarios. Results show that the degree of suitability for shellfish aquaculture in this area would not change dramatically with the introduction of oyster farming. Furthermore, results highlight that: (i) the growth potential in this area is high; (ii) the space with suitability index >0.5 increases when prioritizing the optimal growth condition criteria, and (iii) the socio-economic is the most restrictive Intermediate Level Criteria. Results were discussed by deriving general lessons concerning the use of SMCE in aquaculture space allocation, from the specific application in the Northern Adriatic Sea. Challenges and opportunities related to the proposed methodological framework, with particular reference to the use of resources provided by remote sensing and operational oceanography by means of mathematical models, were also discussed. Results can support a science-based identification of allocated zones for aquaculture in order to avoid conflicts, and promote sustainable aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea, where the space for these activities is becoming increasingly limited.

Spatial multi-criteria and multi-scale evaluation of walkability potential at street segment level: A case study of tehran

The objective of this study was to evaluate the walkability of streets and to meet it the authors used a novel two-step methodology based on the integration of geospatial information science, remote sensing and group multi-criteria analysis to assess the walkability of pathways in a city. The author used a multi-criteria approach operating at the street level, and during the model’s first step, each pathway received a walkability index score based on the following five evaluation criteria: pathway connectivity, access to public transportation, land-use mix, housing density and the greenness level. One key innovation used at this point in the process was that the weighting given to each criterion was determined through a public participation process in which ‘experts’ and ‘non-experts’ (residents) were asked to rate the criteria based on their importance in terms of encouraging people to walk. During the second step, both the presence of shade and being able to see landmarks when using the paths were measured and visualized using three-dimensional GIS tools, the aim being to identify those segments with the greatest likelihood of encouraging people to walk. The model developed in this study, has been tested and implemented across two neighborhoods in the capital city of Tehran. It was found some significant difference between the experts and residents’ viewpoints about the importance of the evaluation factors for walkability evaluation. The residents expressed their views according to their daily needs, while experts’ ideas were based more on their expertise in the field of urban planning. The local residents are more pessimistic and actually said that most parts of the case study area are unsuitable for walking. However, the results indicate that utilizing a group multi-criteria analysis to aggregate the viewpoints of the both groups should be a good approach.

Mapping Potential Wind Energy Zones in Suez Canal Region, Using Satellite Data and Spatial Multicriteria Decision Models

Spatial mapping of potential zones for wind energy is crucial for sustainable regional planning. The Suez Canal Region, Egypt, is currently a focus for national government and international investments for developing the logistic area. The Suez Governorate region is known of its high wind speed along the Gulf of Suez coast. This paper aims at estimating and mapping the potential zones for harnessing wind energy in such region. The method utilizes satellite data and spatial multi-criteria evaluation. Landsat 8 OLI satellite image was used to derive the land-use/land-cover map. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) was used in modeling the wind power density map using the region’s annual average wind speed data. Decision criteria including the climatic conditions, topography, infrastructure and land-cover maps were standardized, weighted and aggregated using weighted linear combination to identify the potential wind energy zones. The results reveal that the highest potential zones for wind energy reach a maximum value of 650 Watt/m2 and a mean of 310 watt/m2 and are located in the south-eastern part of the Suez Governorate Region along the Gulf of Suez. Findings indicate a high potential for harnessing wind energy in the region. The resultant maps can be used as guidelines for regional planning and zoning of renewable energy resources.

Epizootic haemorrhagic disease in Italy: vector competence of indigenous Culicoides species and spatial multicriteria evaluation of vulnerability.

Epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) is an infectious non-contagious viral disease transmitted by Culicoides, which affects wild and domestic ruminants. The disease has never been reported in Europe, however recently outbreaks of EHD occurred in the Mediterranean Basin. Consequently, the risk that Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) might spread in Italy cannot be ignored. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of EHDV transmission in Italy, in case of introduction, through indigenous potential vectors. In Italy, the most spread and abundant Culicoides species associated to livestock are Culicoides imicola and the members of the Obsoletus complex. Culicoides imicola is a competent vector of EHDV, whereas the vector status of the Obsoletus complex has not been assessed yet. Thus, its oral susceptibility to EHDV was here preliminary evaluated. To evaluate the risk of EHDV transmission a geographical information system-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation approach was adopted. Distribution of vector species and host density were used as predictors of potential suitable areas for EHDV transmission, in case of introduction in Italy. This study demonstrates that the whole peninsula is suitable for the disease, given the distribution and abundance of hosts and the competence of possible indigenous vectors.

Vulnerability and risk levels of communities within Ankobra estuary of Ghana

Communities in the Ankobra estuary are generally rural and have a high vulnerability and risk to floods. However, there is little scientific evidence on the nature of floods; exposure of communities to floods and a flood risk map to help effective flood risk reduction and management within the estuary. This is as a result of limited attention given to flood occurrences at local scales. This study therefore sought to assess flood risk within the Ankobra estuary. Data were collected through interviews, community participatory mapping, observations and geographic information systems techniques (onscreen digitising, global positioning system mapping and spatial multi-criteria evaluation). Results from the study indicated that the estuary experiences three types of flood namely riverine, coastal and urban. Risk levels derived ranged from extreme, 0.75–1; high, 0.5–0.74; medium 0.25–0.49 to low, 0–0.24. The extreme risk zone covered an area of 46,725m2; high risk zone covered 701,525m2; moderate risk zone, 248,150m2 and low risk zone, 9,167,758m2. The study therefore recommends that people who live within extreme and high risk zones should be relocated to low risk zones while those in medium risk should undertake retrofitting of their buildings to minimize flow of flood water into their houses and rooms.

Targeted nanoparticle delivery of a novel nitric oxide donor increased fetal weight in a mouse model of fetal growth restriction

Promotion of bioenergy production is an important contemporary topic around the world. Vast amounts of research are allocated towards analysing and understanding bioenergy systems, which are by nature multi-faceted. Despite a focus on the deployment of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods for planning of bioenergy systems, only little research has addressed the location component of bioenergy facility planning. In this paper the authors develop a model for sustainable capacity expansion of the Danish biogas sector allowing for an identification and prioritization of suitable locations for biogas production. The model builds on a framework for spatial planning and decision making through the application of spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The paper is structured around a case study including four Danish municipalities in order to demonstrate the power of the spatial multi-criteria evaluation model. The model allows a two level comparison of suitability, within municipalities as well as between municipalities. Criteria weights for generation of alternatives are obtained through an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) analysis, carried out among a group of Danish central governmental decision makers. We find that resource and production economic criteria are given highest priority followed by environmental and social criteria. In all four case study municipalities, the identified alternatives are compared through incorporating economic, environmental and social criteria. It is found that 4–6% of the municipal area is suitable for biogas facility location and among the best performing sustainable locations the potential of reducing overall production costs is 3% as compared with current biogas plants. The results of this paper can provide support to central governmental decision makers, regarding regional allocation of subsidies in the country. Likewise local decision makers can obtain important information for planning and decision support, allowing for a more inclusive and transparent planning procedure.

Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale: A study in Bangalore, India

Integrating adaptation and mitigation response actions to climate change in urban-level policies requires comprehensive information on vulnerability patterns, yet a majority of local governments and decision makers in various cities in developing nations lack spatially explicit information on climate change vulnerability and its key drivers. In addition, there is no standardised method for an all-inclusive vulnerability assessment at the local level. Results from higher broad-scale vulnerability assessments are difficult to implement conceptually and technically at the local scale. We present a climate change vulnerability assessment approach at the city scale that considers three main components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators were assessed within each component and were combined using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The standardisation of indicators under each component was conducted, along with weighting, at each level of the vulnerability assessment hierarchy. The vulnerability assessment approach was applied to an urban area in India; namely, Bangalore metropolitan area. The application of vulnerability assessment approach was demonstrated and a spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability patterns was presented. The spatial pattern of vulnerability identifies areas urgently requiring attention to adaptation action, while vulnerability assessment enables policy intervention and prioritization at local spatial scales. This study presents a rational to integrate vulnerability assessment approach within the urban planning realm in Bangalore metropolitan area where according to our study approximately 91% of the area is facing high degree of climate vulnerability.

The combined use of Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation and stakeholders analysis for supporting the ecological planning of a river basin

River basin planning and management constitute complex decision problems, characterized by many actors and stakeholders with conflicting objectives and values, ranging from the protection of local flora and fauna and the enhancement of the recreational value of the river, to the preservation of the water resources for industrial purposes and human activities. In the light of the aforementioned complexity, specific evaluation methods are needed for supporting decision-making processes in this context. The present paper proposes an evaluation approach based on the combined use of two different evaluation techniques, the Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation and the stakeholders analysis, for supporting the definition of policies and actions for a river basin. In particular, alternative predictive scenarios are generated through the Ordered Weighted Average method in order to explore different solutions. Starting from the Pellice river basin (Italy), the study presents the results of the integrated evaluation approach, focusing on the potentialities of the methodology for supporting the definition of future policies and plans for the area.

HARKALEH WATERSHED ECOLOGICAL CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR AGRICULTURAL LAND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

According to this study, ecological capability evaluation of land to develop agricultural and range management land uses were done based on spatial multi criteria evaluation and ovelay methods in Harkale in Lali city, southwestern Iran,2014. Ecological capability evaluation of land is one of the basic problems in environmental science. Following determination of the basin boundary on watershed topographic map (1:25000) and, analog maps were digitized in GIS environment. Next, data analysis were valued based on data collection analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method that it is one of the most typical of MCDM methods. Using AHP method, hierarchy structure of criteria was given in three level including objective, main criteria and sub criteria and weight matrixes were completed based on expert’s opinion. Then, the matrixes were analyzed in Expert choice software to give of weight criteria. In next stage, weighting results of criteria were generalized to respective layers in GIS environment. Finally, 16data layers of ecological resources were overlaid and the final map of ecological capability of the study area was given and classified in six classes including very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, less suitable, much less suitable and non developed parts. Also, using Makhdoum method, environmental units map was produced according to evaluation levels and overlaying of ecological data layers. Then, the final map of ecological capability of Harkale watershed for developing agriculture and range management land uses was given based on SQL method. The results showed that in AHP method, suitable development of agriculture and range management land uses are allocate 1005 and 1242 ha of the study area (3855 ha) while in Makhdoum method these area contained 713 and 1568 ha, respectively. Totally, Harkale watershed has moderate ecological capability for developing agriculture and range management land uses. Keywords: Ecological capability evaluation, Multi criteria evaluation, Analytical hierachy Process ( AHP) ,Makhdoom model,GIS

Evaluation of a combined spatial multi-criteria evaluation model and deterministic model for landslide susceptibility mapping

This study evaluated the application of a combined spatial multi-criteria evaluation model and deterministic model for landslide susceptibility mapping in Deokjeok-ri Creek, located in the northeastern part of Korea. This region has frequent shallow landslides often caused by intense rainfall on weathered granite soil slopes. This study compared the predictive capability of two different models: a spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) model, which is a semi-quantitative model, and a shallow landslide stability (SHALSTAB) model, which is a deterministic model used to produce shallow landslide susceptibility maps. For the SMCE model, input layers of landslide causative factors (i.e., topographic, hydrological, soil, forest, and geological factors) were prepared for pairwise comparison to obtain susceptibility weightage. For SHALSTAB, a digital elevation model was used to calculate slope and wetness indices. Field inventories were used to validate and combine the two models. A comparison of the susceptibility map obtained from the SMCE method with that obtained with the SHALSTAB method revealed that the total mismatch area between the two maps for all three susceptibility classes was about 53%. Therefore, the two results were combined to improve the reliability of the susceptibility map. The performance of the combined map was determined using the receiver operator curve (ROC). The area under curve (AUC) revealed a success accuracy of 79.56%, and the predictive accuracy was 83.6%. These results demonstrate that the combined model was more accurate than either individual model at delineating landslide-prone areas of weathered granite soil slopes.

Producing a sensitivity assessment method for visual forest landscapes

A landscape sensitivity index provides information about the location of the most sensitive forest areas in terms of visual alteration. This information is needed to recognize those areas which require special attention in terms of management policy decisions and in directing landscape management activities and subsidies. The main goal of this study was to develop and test a GIS-based method to enable the production of a sensitivity index map on a regional scale. To accomplish this, sensitivity criteria, a model and calculating techniques were developed for the landscape province of the Kainuu and Kuusamo hill area in Finland. Sensitivity was described using three main criteria: (i) visibility, (ii) the amount of potential users (use pressure) and (iii) the attractiveness of the landscape – which are further defined by several sub-criteria. The calculation method was based on spatial multicriteria evaluation (SMCE), where cartographic modeling and expert knowledge modeling are utilized. The method was demonstrated and tested by a case study, where a visual landscape sensitivity map was produced for one municipality in the selected landscape province. The results were evaluated by forest and environment experts. The evaluation process showed that the sensitivity values estimated by the sensitivity model were quite similar to the values calculated from the expert map and field evaluations.

Methodology and software solutions for multicriteria evaluation of floodplain retention suitability

ABSTRACTExtreme flood events often have adverse effects for people living near or within areas at risk. Reactivating morphological river floodplains for flood retention measures can substantially reduce flood wave peaks and the negative flooding consequences. This article accordingly focuses on a methodology for identifying suitable locations for such measures by spatial multicriteria evaluation (MCE). Compromise programming (CP) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are core methodological components. Furthermore, this methodology is based on impact analysis and draws on expert knowledge. This article also deals with software tools that support the operationalization of methodological components. Data harmonization algorithms are implemented as geoprocessing tools. Both CP and AHP are designed as software providing graphical user interfaces (GUIs). While an extension integrates CP into a geoinformation system, AHP is realized as a web application enabling participation of expert practitioners. The methodological components are operationalized through an example on the floodplains of the German river Elbe.

Generation of a national landslide hazard and risk map for the country of Georgia

Landslide risk assessment for large areas at a country level requires a different approach and data than what is standard practice at large scales. The main goal of this research was to design a methodology for a nationwide landslide risk assessment for Georgia taking into account the limitations in data availability and detail, which do not allow the use of physically based models or statistical methods. Given these limitations, we decided to generate a qualitative landslide risk index using spatial multicriteria evaluation (SMCE). An attempt was made to compile a national landslide inventory, using old and partly destroyed archives from the Soviet period, combined with information from annual field surveys. A web-based interface for the reporting of landslide events was developed to improve the updating of the inventory in future. Relevant factor maps were prepared for the entire country, partly based on remote sensing data. As the available landslide inventory was not sufficient to use statistical methods, the factor maps were weighted using the expert-based SMCE method, and the resulting susceptibility map was validated using the available landslide inventory. The inventory was also used to make an estimation of the spatial probability of landslide occurrence within the various susceptibility classes. The resulting map was used in combination with element-at-risk maps to calculate exposure maps and to make a tentative assessment of the expected landslide losses in a 50-year time period .