Sparse Datasets Research Articles

Communities in C. elegans connectome through the prism of non-backtracking walks

The fundamental relationship between the mesoscopic structure of neuronal circuits and organismic functions they subserve is one of the major challenges in contemporary neuroscience. Formation of structurally connected modules of neurons enacts the conversion from single-cell firing to large-scale behaviour of an organism, highlighting the importance of their accurate profiling in the data. While connectomes are typically characterized by significant sparsity of neuronal connections, recent advances in network theory and machine learning have revealed fundamental limitations of traditionally used community detection approaches in cases where the network is sparse. Here we studied the optimal community structure in the structural connectome of Caenorhabditis elegans, for which we exploited a non-conventional approach that is based on non-backtracking random walks, virtually eliminating the sparsity issue. In full agreement with the previous asymptotic results, we demonstrated that non-backtracking walks resolve the ground truth annotation into clusters on stochastic block models (SBM) with the size and density of the connectome better than the spectral methods related to simple random walks. Based on the cluster detectability threshold, we determined that the optimal number of modules in a recently mapped connectome of C. elegans is 10, which precisely corresponds to the number of isolated eigenvalues in the spectrum of the non-backtracking flow matrix. The discovered communities have a clear interpretation in terms of their functional role, which allows one to discern three structural compartments in the worm: the Worm Brain (WB), the Worm Movement Controller (WMC), and the Worm Information Flow Connector (WIFC). Broadly, our work provides a robust network-based framework to reveal mesoscopic structures in sparse connectomic datasets, paving way to further investigation of connectome mechanisms for different functions.

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

IntroductionForecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss.MethodsWe conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees.ResultsWhile the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia, while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana.DiscussionBy reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

Multi-hop path reasoning over sparse temporal knowledge graphs based on path completion and reward shaping

Multi-hop path reasoning plays a crucial role in temporal knowledge graph reasoning, aiming to infer deep complex relationships and obtain interpretable reasoning results. Previous reasoning models primarily focus on designing temporal knowledge graphs with rich paths between entities but struggle to handle path sparsity, known as sparse temporal knowledge graphs. Sparse temporal knowledge graphs store only essential knowledge information, resulting in missing connection paths between certain entities and encountering issues of sparse rewards and information scarcity. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes a multi-hop path reasoning model over sparse temporal knowledge graph based on path completion and reward shaping (STKGR-PR). STKGR-PR dynamically completes missing paths using a temporal embedding model to alleviate path sparsity. To tackle the issue of sparse rewards caused by reduced hit rates, we propose semantic composition-based reasoning path embeddings derived from relation embeddings and timestamp embeddings for reward shaping. Considering the limited information contained in sparse temporal knowledge graphs, we incorporate time vectors into the embedding and multi-hop path reasoning models to enhance the accuracy of reasoning paths and results. Experimental results conducted on six sparse temporal datasets sampled from ICEWS14 and ICEWS515–05 demonstrate that STKGR-PR outperforms state-of-the-art multi-hop path reasoning models over temporal knowledge graphs across all evaluation metrics, while ensuring interpretability.

Assessing the potential of synthetic and ex situ airborne laser scanning and ground plot data to train forest biomass models

Abstract Airborne laser scanning data are increasingly used to predict forest biomass over large areas. Biomass information cannot be derived directly from airborne laser scanning data; therefore, field measurements of forest plots are required to build regression models. We tested whether simulated laser scanning data of virtual forest plots could be used to train biomass models and thereby reduce the amount of field measurements required. We compared the performance of models that were trained with (i) simulated data only, (ii) a combination of simulated and real data, (iii) real data collected from different study sites, and (iv) real data collected from the same study site the model was applied to. We additionally investigated whether using a subset of the simulated data instead of using all simulated data improved model performance. The best matching subset of the simulated data was sampled by selecting the simulated forest plot with the highest correlation of the return height distribution profile for each real forest plot. For comparison, a randomly selected subset was evaluated. Models were tested on four forest sites located in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Canada. Model performance was assessed by root mean squared error (RMSE), squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r$^{2}$), and mean error (ME) of observed and predicted biomass. We found that models trained solely with simulated data did not achieve the accuracy of models trained with real data (RMSE increase of 52–122 %, r$^{2}$ decrease of 4–18 %). However, model performance improved when only a subset of the simulated data was used (RMSE increase of 21–118 %, r$^{2}$ decrease of 5–14 % compared to the real data model), albeit differences in model performance when using the best matching subset compared to using a randomly selected subset were small. Using simulated data for model training always resulted in a strong underprediction of biomass. Extending sparse real training datasets with simulated data decreased RMSE and increased r$^{2}$, as long as no more than 12–346 real training samples were available, depending on the study site. For three of the four study sites, models trained with real data collected from other sites outperformed models trained with simulated data and RMSE and r$^{2}$ were similar to models trained with data from the respective sites. Our results indicate that simulated data cannot yet replace real data but they can be helpful in some sites to extend training datasets when only a limited amount of real data is available.

Solving the imbalanced data issue: automatic urgency detection for instructor assistance in MOOC discussion forums

In MOOCs, identifying urgent comments on discussion forums is an ongoing challenge. Whilst urgent comments require immediate reactions from instructors, to improve interaction with their learners, and potentially reducing drop-out rates—the task is difficult, as truly urgent comments are rare. From a data analytics perspective, this represents a highly unbalanced (sparse) dataset. Here, we aim to automate the urgent comments identification process, based on fine-grained learner modelling—to be used for automatic recommendations to instructors. To showcase and compare these models, we apply them to the first gold standard dataset for Urgent iNstructor InTErvention (UNITE), which we created by labelling FutureLearn MOOC data. We implement both benchmark shallow classifiers and deep learning. Importantly, we not only compare, for the first time for the unbalanced problem, several data balancing techniques, comprising text augmentation, text augmentation with undersampling, and undersampling, but also propose several new pipelines for combining different augmenters for text augmentation. Results show that models with undersampling can predict most urgent cases; and 3X augmentation + undersampling usually attains the best performance. We additionally validate the best models via a generic benchmark dataset (Stanford). As a case study, we showcase how the naïve Bayes with count vector can adaptively support instructors in answering learner questions/comments, potentially saving time or increasing efficiency in supporting learners. Finally, we show that the errors from the classifier mirrors the disagreements between annotators. Thus, our proposed algorithms perform at least as well as a ‘super-diligent’ human instructor (with the time to consider all comments).

Performance Analysis of Sketching Methods

One of the problems in data mining or machine learning is the high-dimensional dataset. MinHash can generate sketches of sparse datasets efficiently reducing the dimension to a few thousand. These sketches, then, can be used for different machine-learning applications. It takes O(kd) computations to generate k hash values for a data point with d non-zeros. The Sketch of a data point is the vector of k hash values. Weighted Minwise Hashing is another method to generate a sketch of size k in O(kp/d) computations. Here, p is the size of the universal set. Optimal Densification is the most efficient and accurate method as it can generate k hash values in mere O(d + k) computations. In this paper, we investigate the performance of Optimal Densification, Weighted Minwise Hashing, and Vanilla MinHash by performing two experiments. Firstly, we investigate Jaccard similarity estimation accuracy on six different synthetic datasets. Then, we perform one nearest neighbor classification (1NN) of four real datasets. Optimal Densification outperforms both Weighted Minwise Hashing and Vanilla MinHash in terms of accuracy and time taken to generate the sketches.

ScFed: federated learning for cell type classification with scRNA-seq.

The advent of single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has revolutionized our understanding of cellular heterogeneity and complexity in biological tissues. However, the nature of large, sparse scRNA-seq datasets and privacy regulations present challenges for efficient cell identification. Federated learning provides a solution, allowing efficient and private data use. Here, we introduce scFed, a unified federated learning framework that allows for benchmarking of four classification algorithms without violating data privacy, including single-cell-specific and general-purpose classifiers. We evaluated scFed using eight publicly available scRNA-seq datasets with diverse sizes, species and technologies, assessing its performance via intra-dataset and inter-dataset experimental setups. We find that scFed performs well on a variety of datasets with competitive accuracy to centralized models. Though Transformer-based model excels in centralized training, its performance slightly lags behind single-cell-specific model within the scFed framework, coupled with a notable time complexity concern. Our study not only helps select suitable cell identification methods but also highlights federated learning's potential for privacy-preserving, collaborative biomedical research.

Sparse convolutional neural network for high-resolution skull shape completion and shape super-resolution

Traditional convolutional neural network (CNN) methods rely on dense tensors, which makes them suboptimal for spatially sparse data. In this paper, we propose a CNN model based on sparse tensors for efficient processing of high-resolution shapes represented as binary voxel occupancy grids. In contrast to a dense CNN that takes the entire voxel grid as input, a sparse CNN processes only on the non-empty voxels, thus reducing the memory and computation overhead caused by the sparse input data. We evaluate our method on two clinically relevant skull reconstruction tasks: (1) given a defective skull, reconstruct the complete skull (i.e., skull shape completion), and (2) given a coarse skull, reconstruct a high-resolution skull with fine geometric details (shape super-resolution). Our method outperforms its dense CNN-based counterparts in the skull reconstruction task quantitatively and qualitatively, while requiring substantially less memory for training and inference. We observed that, on the 3D skull data, the overall memory consumption of the sparse CNN grows approximately linearly during inference with respect to the image resolutions. During training, the memory usage remains clearly below increases in image resolution—an times 8 increase in voxel number leads to less than times 4 increase in memory requirements. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of using a sparse CNN for skull reconstruction tasks, and our findings can be applied to other spatially sparse problems. We prove this by additional experimental results on other sparse medical datasets, like the aorta and the heart. Project page at https://github.com/Jianningli/SparseCNN.

Stochastic Gradient Descent for matrix completion: Hybrid parallelization on shared- and distributed-memory systems

The purpose of this study is to investigate the hybrid parallelization of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm for solving the matrix completion problem on a high-performance computing platform. We propose a hybrid parallel decentralized SGD framework with asynchronous inter-process communication and a novel flexible partitioning scheme to attain scalability up to hundreds of processors. We utilize Message Passing Interface (MPI) for inter-node communication and POSIX threads for intra-node parallelism. We tested our method by using different real-world benchmark datasets. Experimental results on a hybrid parallel architecture showed that, compared to the state-of-the-art, the proposed algorithm achieves 6× higher throughput on sparse datasets, while it achieves comparable throughput on relatively dense datasets.

Pixel-Level Degradation for Text Image Super-Resolution and Recognition

In the realm of image reconstruction, deep learning-based super-resolution (SR) has established itself as a prevalent technique, particularly in the domain of text image restoration. This study aims to address notable deficiencies in existing research, including constraints imposed by restricted datasets and challenges related to model generalization. Specifically, the goal is to enhance the super-resolution network’s reconstruction of scene text image super-resolution and utilize the generated degenerate dataset to alleviate issues associated with poor generalization due to the sparse scene text image super-resolution dataset. The methodology employed begins with the degradation of images from the MJSynth dataset, using a stochastic degradation process to create eight distinct degraded versions. Subsequently, a blank image is constructed, preserving identical dimensions to the low-resolution image, with each pixel sourced randomly from the corresponding points across the eight degraded images. Following several iterations of training via Finetune, the LR-HR method is applied to the TextZoom dataset. The pivotal metric for assessment is optical character recognition (OCR) accuracy, recognized for its fundamental role in gauging the pragmatic effectiveness of this approach. The experimental findings reveal a notable enhancement in OCR accuracy when compared to the TBSRN model, yielding improvements of 2.4%, 2.3%, and 4.8% on the TextZoom dataset. This innovative approach, founded on pixel-level degradation, not only exhibits commendable generalization capabilities but also demonstrates resilience in confronting the intricate challenges inherent to text image super-resolution.

Language, artificial education, and future-making in indigenous language education

ABSTRACT This paper examines how language-based artificial intelligence is envisaged to imagine new futures for indigenous languages. It draws on the visions, programmes, and plans of six language initiatives that are developing language technology for often-marginalised indigenous, tribal, and minority (ITM) languages, such as Gondi, Maithili, Rajasthani and Mundari, in India. We note three distinct discourses: (1) technological optimism in utilising these new opportunities by claiming space for otherwise-marginalised languages, (2) the imperative for collaborative and collective work in order to address sparse datasets, and (3) the need to negotiate the contested nature of imagining a new collective future. This paper argues that indigenous language technology is not just a technical project but a contested process of subverting linguistic hierarchy through the ‘active presencing’ of these languages. Overall, the paper emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach that recognizes the interplay between technology, language education, and broader social and political factors.

Assessing optimal methods for transferring machine learning models to low-volume and imbalanced clinical datasets: experiences from predicting outcomes of Danish trauma patients.

Accurately predicting patient outcomes is crucial for improving healthcare delivery, but large-scale risk prediction models are often developed and tested on specific datasets where clinical parameters and outcomes may not fully reflect local clinical settings. Where this is the case, whether to opt for de-novo training of prediction models on local datasets, direct porting of externally trained models, or a transfer learning approach is not well studied, and constitutes the focus of this study. Using the clinical challenge of predicting mortality and hospital length of stay on a Danish trauma dataset, we hypothesized that a transfer learning approach of models trained on large external datasets would provide optimal prediction results compared to de-novo training on sparse but local datasets or directly porting externally trained models. Using an external dataset of trauma patients from the US Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) and a local dataset aggregated from the Danish Trauma Database (DTD) enriched with Electronic Health Record data, we tested a range of model-level approaches focused on predicting trauma mortality and hospital length of stay on DTD data. Modeling approaches included de-novo training of models on DTD data, direct porting of models trained on TQIP data to the DTD, and a transfer learning approach by training a model on TQIP data with subsequent transfer and retraining on DTD data. Furthermore, data-level approaches, including mixed dataset training and methods countering imbalanced outcomes (e.g., low mortality rates), were also tested. Using a neural network trained on a mixed dataset consisting of a subset of TQIP and DTD, with class weighting and transfer learning (retraining on DTD), we achieved excellent results in predicting mortality, with a ROC-AUC of 0.988 and an F2-score of 0.866. The best-performing models for predicting long-term hospitalization were trained only on local data, achieving an ROC-AUC of 0.890 and an F1-score of 0.897, although only marginally better than alternative approaches. Our results suggest that when assessing the optimal modeling approach, it is important to have domain knowledge of how incidence rates and workflows compare between hospital systems and datasets where models are trained. Including data from other health-care systems is particularly beneficial when outcomes are suffering from class imbalance and low incidence. Scenarios where outcomes are not directly comparable are best addressed through either de-novo local training or a transfer learning approach.

Parallel learning by multitasking neural networks

Parallel learning, namely the simultaneous learning of multiple patterns, constitutes a modern challenge for neural networks. While this cannot be accomplished by standard Hebbian associative neural networks, in this paper we show how the multitasking Hebbian network (a variation on the theme of the Hopfield model, working on sparse datasets) is naturally able to perform this complex task. We focus on systems processing in parallel a finite (up to logarithmic growth in the size of the network) number of patterns, mirroring the low-storage setting of standard associative neural networks. When patterns to be reconstructed are mildly diluted, the network handles them hierarchically, distributing the amplitudes of their signals as power laws w.r.t. the pattern information content (hierarchical regime), while, for strong dilution, the signals pertaining to all the patterns are simultaneously raised with the same strength (parallel regime). Further, we prove that the training protocol (either supervised or unsupervised) neither alters the multitasking performances nor changes the thresholds for learning. We also highlight (analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations) that a standard cost function (i.e. the Hamiltonian) used in statistical mechanics exhibits the same minima as a standard loss function (i.e. the sum of squared errors) used in machine learning.

GMAT-DU: Traffic Anomaly Prediction With Fine Spatiotemporal Granularity in Sparse Data

The fine-grained prediction of traffic anomalies is crucial for Traffic Management Bureau to alleviate congestion and avoid public safety incidents. While in practice, the fine-grained prediction is very challenging due to two issues. 1) <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Data sparsity</i> . At the fine-grained setting, missing data is inevitable and widespread on spatial and temporal dimension. Existing methods have weak performance as they do not handle missing data properly. 2) <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Data distribution mutation</i> . At the fine-grained setting, the traffic conditions of adjacent road segments are sometimes completely different, invalidating existing spatiotemporal smoothing-based methods. This paper proposes GMAT-DU, a novel model that aims to predict traffic anomaly from sparse data in fine-grained manner. To solve the first issue, we propose a Decay Unrolling (DU) mechanism to make the model applicable to sparse datasets. The performance will be progressively enhanced by the spatiotemporal unrolling of high-impact neighbors. For the second issue, we combine the meta-features of roads with correlations between roads, which are learnt from road semantic information and historical spatiotemporal data, and make the model focusing on the high-impact neighbors by a Graph Meta-features based ATtention (GMAT) mechanism. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our method. The experiment results show the significant advantages against the state-of-the-art models.

Poster] Identifying Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul Events based on ADS-B Data

Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) plays a big role in aviation schedules and operational costs. In this work service difficulty reports are combined with aircraft ADS-B data to identify MRO activity based on an aircraft's layover information. The ``Inspection/Maintenance'' stage of operation and date of service difficulty reports allow to label layovers from ADS-B with the presence of MRO activity. Using a support vector machine this work classifies layovers based on their duration and time of day, achieving an 86% overall accuracy and 78% balanced accuracy. These results reflect the difficulty of working with this sparse and incomplete dataset, however, they allow us to study MRO schedules. The combination of these data sources offers new opportunities to find relations between aircraft trajectory information and MRO, which will be further investigated in future work.

A Deep Learning Approach Based on Physical Constraints for Predicting Soil Moisture in Unsaturated Zones

AbstractWater transport in the unsaturated zone is an important part of the hydrological cycle and is the link between the atmosphere‒soil‐groundwater for material and energy transport. The accurate prediction of soil moisture (SM) is essential for the rational exploitation of water resources. Data‐driven deep learning methods are widely used in many fields; however, the lack of physical mechanisms limits their application in hydrological fields, especially for SM prediction in unsaturated zones. To solve this problem, this study proposes a new deep learning method that introduces the water balance principle, Richard's equation, and SM boundary conditions as constraints to construct the new loss function that guides the training process of deep learning, called physics‐informed deep learning (PIDL). In tests consisting of a large number of data sets acquired from in situ observation sites in the field, PIDL exhibits higher accuracy than ordinary deep learning (long short‐term memory) and physical models, with 51.03% and 53.46% reduction in root mean square error of SM prediction, respectively. PIDL performance significantly improved in predicting scenarios that are difficult for ordinary deep learning to handle, such as sparse data sets, extreme values, and mutated values. In addition, PIDL maintains high accuracy over a longer prediction period. The addition of physical mechanisms allows deep learning to mine patterns not only from the data itself but also from a priori physical theoretical knowledge for guidance, and this hybrid modeling approach can also be generalized to prediction problems in other hydrological domains.

Hybrid Temporal Dynamics Feature Extraction in Recommendation Systems for Improved Ranking of Items

In today's retail landscape, shopping malls and e-commerce platforms employ various psychological tactics to influence customer behavior and increase profits. In line with these strategies, this paper introduces an innovative method for recognizing sentiment patterns, with a specific emphasis on the evolving temporal aspects of user interests within Recommendation Systems (RS). The projected method, called Temporal Dynamic Features based User Sentiment Pattern for Recommendation System (TDF-USPRS), aims to enhance the performance of RS by leveraging sentiment trends derived from a user's past preferences. TDF-USPRS utilizes a hybrid model combining Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) and a layered architecture based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) to retrieve temporal dynamics and discern a user's sentiment trend. Through an examination of a user's sequential history of item preferences, TDF-USPRS produces sentiment patterns to offer exceptionally pertinent recommendations, even in cases of sparse datasets. A variety of popular datasets, including as MovieLens, Amazon Rating Beauty, YOOCHOOSE, and CiaoDVD are utilised to assess the suggested technique. The TDF-USPRS model outperforms existing approaches, according to experimental data, resulting in recommendations with greater accuracy and relevance. Comparing the projected model to existing approaches, the projected model displays a 6.5% reduction in RMSE and a 4.5% gain in precision. Specifically, the model achieves an RMSE of 0.7623 and 0.996 on the MovieLens and CiaoDVD datasets, while attaining a precision score of 0.5963 and 0.165 on the YOOCHOOSE and Amazon datasets, respectively.

Fast Uncertainty Quantification by Sparse Data Learning From Multiphysics Systems

Data learning is a burgeoning area; here, we refer to it as a gorgeous blend of scientific computing and high-dimensional statistics. In this article, we propose a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE)-based surrogate model, with a sparse dataset, for multiphysics problems with associated uncertainty. This data-driven method avoids the dilemma of traditional intrusive methods, which usually require tremendous revisions over the backend source code. To circumvent the curse of dimensionality in uncertainty quantification, we perform sparse data learning for the relationship between the system output and the gPCE bases. Numerical experiments showcase that the surrogate model exhibits superior fast performance in system-output prediction, statistical-feature extraction, and sensitivity analysis of the 3-D multiphysics problems.

MSGNN: A Multi-structured Graph Neural Network model for real-time incident prediction in large traffic networks

This study addresses the problem of predicting traffic incidents across a large-scale road network to support network-wide real-time traffic management. To enable network-wide incident prediction, traditional approaches either build a separate model for each target link (road segment) across the network or build one big model containing all the links in the network, which are costly and inefficient. Instead, we propose a sub-area level incident prediction model that can predict an incident occurrence within ‘any’ given sub-area across the network using a single model, where this single network-wide model learns incident occurrence patterns from a large number of randomly sampled sub-areas across the whole network. For this, we develop a Multi-structured Graph Neural Network (MSGNN) model that effectively captures spatio-temporal relationships among links within each sub-area, where multiple graphs with different structures are formed to represent different data sources for the same geographic sub-area and the combined graph embeddings from those multiple graphs are taken as input to predict a binary classification label for incident occurrence as output. We conduct a comprehensive set of experiments for model evaluation. When compared with benchmark models, which are chosen from classical machine learning models as well as recent deep learning models, our model outperforms the other models in most of the test cases, showing superior performance consistently across different parameter settings (15-min and 60-min prediction horizons) and different study networks (Brisbane and Gold Coast). We also demonstrate the benefit of the multi-structured graph input architecture in flexibly fusing heterogeneous data sources to enhance the model accuracy, in conjunction with a novel clustering-based data imputation method that allows us to fully leverage even a sparse dataset with many missing data.

Sequential Bayesian updating for time-variant reliability analysis of ageing structures

This paper proposes a new method for time-variant reliability analysis of existing ageing structures under epistemic uncertainty from limited recurrent field measurement data. A growth model and a noise factor are introduced to account for the ageing changes of distribution parameters that take place while the reliability interval is sequentially updated using inspection data acquired over the service period. The method is applied to quantify the reliability of deteriorating concrete bridges under routine inspections of reinforcement steel corrosion. The interval estimation of corrosion and reliability shows narrower uncertainty bounds than a traditional frequentist approach, particularly when relatively sparse inspection datasets are available. In the case study presented, the relative variation of reliability bounds could be reduced by at least half when compared to a frequentist estimation.