Space Weather Information Research Articles

Heliophysics and space weather information architecture and innovative solutions: Current status and ways forward

Over the past 10 years, a paradigm shift has happened in the world of science and information technology. Open science is becoming the de facto standard, as underlined by the recent recommendation on Open Science approved by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in November 2021. In parallel, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies are already part of our daily life, profoundly impacting our societies. This reality is far different from when the 2015–2025 COmmittee on SPAce Research (COSPAR)/International Living With a Star (ILWS) Space weather roadmap was laid down by Schrijver et al. (2015).Hence, when the COSPAR International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) initiated community-wide efforts, back in 2018, to join forces in order to advance space weather predictive capabilities, four ISWAT overarching activities were eventually established: assessment, information architecture and data utilization, innovative solutions and education/outreach. These topics are indeed transversal activities across all subfields of space weather research, focusing on either the variability of heliospheric regions or physical phenomena and their specific space weather impacts.Here, we present the combined output of the information architecture and innovative solutions working groups. The first part is related to the heliophysics and space weather information architecture key building blocks (section 2). The second part is dedicated to open science tools and infrastructures, first detailing the tools to boost open science (section 3), then presenting actual and upcoming open science infrastructures (section 4). The third part is related to AI/ML solutions applied to the data available through this information architecture (section 5). The last part tries to encompass the breadth of activity presented and provides a number of recommendations, underlining some opportunities but also challenges ahead. Overall, this paper tries to highlight how powerful this open science ecosystem is, but also fragile, requiring sustained support from its various decision makers internationally.

Performance indicator development addressing mitigation of the space weather impacts on GNSS

Within the European Space Agency's (ESA) Space Weather Service Network, the development of performance indicators for the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has been identified as essential to meet the growing needs of end users for Space Weather information in the field of navigation. This requires a targeted analysis of Space Weather-related disturbances of technical systems and services in the field of satellite-based navigation, considering the growing requirements of all the different users in this domain. The goal of the Space Weather Impact on GNSS Performance: Application Development (SWIGPAD) project is to develop GNSS performance indicators (GPI) based on Space Weather data provided by European research institutes through the ESA Space Weather Service Portal (available at https://swe.ssa.esa.int) with the aim to fulfill representative use cases derived from dedicated meeting with industry and government experts. The application that serves the GPI will provide the user with information about current and expected effects of Space Weather on positioning at their respective location. Additionally, end users in the various GNSS application domains shall be assisted with an overall numerical and graphical estimate of the positioning uncertainty resulting from ionospheric conditions and its evolution over time. The intent of this article is to present the results of the project and the capabilities of the GPI application.

Space weather casters and space weather interpreters confronting space weather hazard

Space weather means space environmental changes which can impact society. The mission of the ABLab (Aerospace Business Laboratory) Space Weather Project in Japan is to foster active and voluntary persons for Space Weather Casters and Space Weather Interpreters, and to encourage Space Weather Outreach. Space Weather Caster would be a future profession extended from the current weather caster, who sends space weather information accurately and understandably for the public. Space Weather Interpreters, another future profession, would analyze space weather situation and give advice to avoid the space weather-originated damage to the social infrastructure in advance. Although researchers have been insisting the possibility that space weather hazard impacts social infrastructures and our life, space weather, as of 2022, has not been broadcast, for instance even on TV news programs. The public are still not aware of space weather and possible associated disasters, which can affect their work and life. Therefore, this paper proposes new professions and new methodology for public outreach in order to educate the public about space weather and the related potential disasters.

History of Space Weather Research and Operation in Japan and New Emphasis in Southeast Asia

AbstractJapanese space weather research and operation began in 1896 with research on radio propagation. LF, MF, and HF radio communication used to be important before the era of communication satellites; however, they are affected by ionospheric conditions and solar activity. A center for the research and development of radio systems was established at Hiraiso, which is now also a space weather observatory for measuring solar activity, geomagnetic fields, and ionospheric conditions. The need for space weather information initially decreased in the communication satellite age, but since the beginning of the 21st century it has been increasing again with the growing use of positioning satellite systems. The role of Southeast Asian countries in space weather research has become important and the range of activities is also growing. The contribution of these countries to space weather research and operation is expected to grow in future.

Estimate of economic impact of atmospheric radiation storm associated with solar energetic particle events on aircraft operations

A solar energetic particle (SEP) event generates a shower of secondary generated particles in the Earth’s atmosphere down to lower altitudes to cause an atmospheric radiation storm (ARS). The high-energy secondary particles cause additional radiation dose at altitudes where aircraft flies. The space weather information provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated space weather centers includes advisories on the solar radiation storm. The Warning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar energetic particle (WASAVIES), we can estimate the effective dose rate (EDR) along the flight path of the aircraft. However, it has not been well established how the operators of aircraft should react with the space weather advisories on the solar radiation storm. By using a flight trajectory generation algorithm and the global EDR distribution, the economic impacts of ARS associated with SEP events on aircraft operation, namely the flight path length, flight time, and fuel consumption, are estimated. The conditions of the peak of the ARS event on 20 January 2005 are used. The economic impacts for a flight route from New York, US to Tokyo, Japan, are estimated with constraints in flight routes to avoid the hazard of radiation and compared with those of the reference case without the ARS effects. The fuel consumption is shown to increase by 39–69 tons (33–58%) for a twin-engine, wide-body jet passenger aircraft, when a constraint is imposed on the flight altitude only. When the constraints are set on the aircraft altitude and the latitude, the flight time and the fuel consumption are both increased by 2.2–2.8 h (17–20%) and 32–48 tons (27–41%), respectively. If the ARS event duration is limited for 3 h, the increase in the fuel consumption is about 7.6–14 tons (6.4–12%). This economic impact may be reduced, if the space weather nowcast and forecast for the ARS and an optimal flight trajectory generation algorithm are used together. Setting more flexible constraints on the flight route and generating optimal flight trajectories with minimal economic impacts by fully utilizing the global EDR distribution is the next step.

Development of space environment customized risk estimation for satellites (SECURES)

Plasma variations in the geospace environment driven by solar wind–magnetosphere interactions are one of the major causes of satellite anomaly. To mitigate the effect of satellite anomaly, the risk of space weather disturbances predicted by space weather forecasting needs to be known in advance. However, the risk of satellite anomaly owing to space weather disturbances is not the same for all satellites, because the risk depends not only on the space environment itself but also on the design and materials of individual satellites. From the viewpoint of satellite operators, it is difficult to apply a general alert level of the space environment to the risk of individual satellites. To provide tailored space weather information, we have developed SECURES (Space Environment Customized Risk Estimation for Satellites) by combining models of the space environment and those of spacecraft charging. In SECURES, we focus on the risk of spacecraft charging (surface/internal) for geosynchronous satellites. For the risk estimation of surface charging, we have combined the global magnetosphere magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model with the satellite surface charging models. For the risk estimation of internal charging, we have combined the radiation belt models with the satellite internal charging models. We have developed prototype products for both types of charging/electrostatic discharge (ESD). The development of SECURES and our achievements are introduced in this paper.

Simulation of the Interplanetary Bz Using a Data-driven Heliospheric Solar Wind Model

Abstract Aimed to be ready for the transition from research to operation, we have developed a solar wind model by coupling a data-driven empirical coronal model with a magnetohydrodynamics heliospheric model. We performed a data-driven simulation of the solar wind for a two-year period during the declining and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. Comparisons with OMNI and Ulysses spacecraft data show that the model can reproduce the large-scale variations of the solar wind plasma parameters. The evolution of geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) B x and B z components are also reasonably duplicated by the model in terms of polarity and strength. Apparent signatures of the Russell–McPherron (R-M) effect are found from both observed data and simulated results, indicating that during the investigated interval the R-M effect is the dominant mechanism that controls the large-scale evolution of the north–south component of the interplanetary magnetic field in the GSM frame. The results demonstrate that the established model can provide valuable space weather information about the solar wind.

A Distributed File-Based Storage System for Improving High Availability of Space Weather Data

In space science research, the Indonesia National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) is concerned with the development of a system that provides actual information and predictions called the Space Weather Information and Forecast Services (SWIFtS). SWIFtS is supported by a data storage system that serves data, implementing a centralized storage model. This has some problems that impact to researchers as the primary users. The single point of failure and also the delay in data updating on the server is a significant issue when researchers need the latest data, but the server is unable to provide it. To overcome these problems, we proposed a new system that utilized a decentralized model for storing data, leveraging the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS) file system. Our proposed method focused on the automated background process, and its scheme would increase the data availability and throughput by spreading it into nodes through a peer-to-peer connection. Moreover, we also included system monitoring for real-time data flow from each node and information of node status that combines active and passive approaches. For system evaluation, the experiment was performed to determine the performance of the proposed system compared to the existing system by calculating mean replication time and the mean throughput of a node. As expected, performance evaluations showed that our proposed scheme had faster file replication time and supported high throughput.

Correlation between Ionospheric Spatial Decorrelation and Space Weather Intensity for Safety-Critical Differential GNSS Systems.

An ionospheric spatial decorrelation is one of the most dominant error factors that affects the availability of safety-critical differential global navigation satellite systems (DGNSS). This is because systems apply significant conservatism on the error source when ensuring navigation safety due to its unpredictable error characteristic. This paper investigates a correlation between GNSS-derived ionospheric spatial decorrelation and space weather intensity. The understanding of the correlation has significant advantages when modeling residual ionospheric errors without being overly pessimistic by exploiting external sources of space weather information. An ionospheric spatial decorrelation is quantified with a parameter of spatial gradient, which is an ionosphere total electron content (TEC) difference per unit distance of ionospheric pierce point (IPP). We used all pairs of stations from dense GNSS networks in the conterminous United States (CONUS) that provide an IPP separation distance of less than 100 km to obtain spatial gradient measurements under both ionospherically quiet and active conditions. Since the correlation results would be applied to safety-critical navigation applications, special attention was paid by taking into consideration all non-Gaussian tails of a spatial gradient distribution when determining spatial gradient statistics. The statistics were compared with space weather indices which are disturbance storm time (Dst) index and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz index. As a result, the ionospheric spatial decorrelation showed a significant positive correlation with both indices, especially under active ionospheric conditions. Under quiet conditions, it showed positive correlation slightly weaker than those under active conditions, and the IMF Bz showed preceding response to the spatial gradient statistics revealing the potential applicability for predicting the spatial decorrelation conditions.

Operational Space Weather Services in National Space Science Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Operational Space Weather Services in National Space Science Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences

A Space weather information service based upon remote and in-situ measurements of coronal mass ejections heading for Earth

The Earth’s magnetosphere is formed as a consequence of interaction between the planet’s magnetic field and the solar wind, a continuous plasma stream from the Sun. A number of different solar wind phenomena have been studied over the past 40 years with the intention of understanding and forecasting solar behavior. One of these phenomena in particular, Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can significantly disturb the Earth’s magnetosphere for a short time and cause geomagnetic storms. This publication presents a mission concept consisting of six spacecraft that are equally spaced in a heliocentric orbit at 0.72 AU. These spacecraft will monitor the plasma properties, the magnetic field’s orientation and magnitude, and the 3D-propagation trajectory of CMEs heading for Earth. The primary objective of this mission is to increase space weather forecasting time by means of a near real-time information service, that is based upon in-situ and remote measurements of the aforementioned CME properties. The obtained data can additionally be used for updating scientific models. This update is the mission’s secondary objective. In-situ measurements are performed using a Solar Wind Analyzer instrumentation package and fluxgate magnetometers, while for remote measurements coronagraphs are employed. The proposed instruments originate from other space missions with the intention to reduce mission costs and to streamline the mission design process. Communication with the six identical spacecraft is realized via a deep space network consisting of six ground stations. They provide an information service that is in uninterrupted contact with the spacecraft, allowing for continuous space weather monitoring. A dedicated data processing center will handle all the data, and then forward the processed data to the SSA Space Weather Coordination Center which will, in turn, inform the general public through a space weather forecast. The data processing center will additionally archive the data for the scientific community. The proposed concept mission allows for major advances in space weather forecasting time and the scientific modeling of space weather.

A space weather index for the radiation field at aviation altitudes

The additional dose contribution to the radiation exposure at aviation altitudes during Solar Particle Events (SPEs) has been a matter of concern for many years. After the Halloween storms in 2003 several airlines began to implement mitigation measures such as rerouting and lowering flight altitudes in response to alerts on the NOAA S-scale regarding solar radiation storms. These alerts are based on the integral proton flux above 10 MeV measured aboard the corresponding GOES-satellite which is operated outside the Earth’s atmosphere in a geosynchronous orbit. This integral proton flux has, however, been proved to be an insufficient parameter to apply to the radiation field at aviation altitudes without an accompanying analysis of the shape of the energy spectrum. Consequently, false alarms and corresponding disproportionate reactions ensued. Since mitigating measures can be quite cost-intensive, there has been a demand for appropriate space weather information among responsible airline managers for about a decade. Against this background, we propose the introduction of a new Space Weather index D, based on dose rates at aviation altitudes produced by solar protons during solar radiation storms, as the relevant parameter for the assessment of corresponding radiation exposure. The Space Weather index D is a natural number given by a graduated table of ranges of dose rates in ascending order which is derived by an equation depending on the dose rate of solar protons.

A survey of customers of space weather information

We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e‐mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near‐future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near‐future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near‐future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

Research Environment and Information Service of the Space Weather Cloud

To optimize space weather research and information services, it is important to establish a comprehensive system that enables us to analyze observation and simulation data in an integrated manner. For this, we recently constructed a new computing environment called the Weather Cloud Computing of the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT). Currently, the Space Weather Cloud contains a high performance computer, a distributed mass storage system using the Grid Data Farm (Gfarm) technology, servers for analysis and visualization of data, a job service based on the RCM (R&D Chain Management) system, servers for Solar-Terrestrial data Analysis, and the Reference System (STARS).

Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting Activity in NICT

Disturbances of Space environment around the Earth (geospace) is controlled by the activity of the Sun and the solar wind. Disturbances in geospace sometimes cause serious problems to satellites, astronauts, and telecommunications. To minimize the effect of the problems, space weather forecasting is necessary. In Japan, NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) is in charge of space weather forecasting services as a regional warning center of International Space Environment Service. With help of geospace environment data exchanging among the international cooperation, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide information on nowcasts and forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. For prompt reporting of space weather information, we also conduct our original observation networks from the Sun to the upper atmosphere: Hiraiso solar observatory, domestic ionosonde networks, magnetometer & HF radar observations in far-east Siberia and Alaska, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionospheric network (SEALION). ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) real-time beacon data are received using our antenna facilities to monitor the solar and solar wind conditions in near real-time. Our current activities and future perspective of space weather monitoring and forecasting will be introduced in this report.

South Korea's renewed focus on space weather

South Korea's renewed focus on space weather

Space Weather Workshop: A Catalyst for Partnerships

Space Weather Workshop: A Catalyst for Partnerships

Distributed networks enable advances in US space weather operations

Space weather, the shorter-term variable impact of the Sun’s photons, solar wind particles, and interplanetary magnetic field upon the Earth’s environment, adversely affects our technological systems. These technological systems, including their space component, are increasingly being seen as a way to help solve 21st Century problems such as climate change, energy access, fresh water availability, and transportation coordination. Thus, the effects of space weather on space systems and assets must be mitigated and operational space weather using automated distributed networks has emerged as a common operations methodology. The evolution of space weather operations is described and the description of distributed network architectures is provided, including their use of tiers, data objects, redundancy, and time domain definitions. There are several existing distributed networks now providing space weather information and the lessons learned in developing those networks are discussed along with the details of examples for the Solar Irradiance Platform (SIP), Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS), GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), and Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS).

Real time monitoring for nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric space weatherin Europe with ground digisondes

The Earth's ionosphere largely determines space weather effects on radio wave communications, navigation and surveillance systems. Lately there has been an increasing demand for ionospheric nowcast and accurate forecast services by various groups of users, including European industry. The paper reviews research activities in Europe based on the exploitation of real-time ground digisondes for the provision of nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric space weather information and useful products and services to support operational applications. During the last few years, important progress in databasing, modelling and forecasting ionospheric disturbances based on real-time data from ground digisondes was achieved in the frames of COST Action 271 «Effects of the Upper Atmosphere on Terrestrial and Earth-Space Communications». Further developments are expected to be deployed with the new COST Action 724 on «Developing the basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting space weather», as well as through the Space Weather Pilot Project of the European Space Agency and through projects funded by the European Commission programmes.

Radio occultation techniques for probing the ionosphere

GPS radio occultation measurements establish the basis for a new remote sensing technique for vertical profile information on the electron density of the entire ionosphere from satellite orbit heights down to the bottomside. No other profiling technique such as vertical sounding or incoherent scatter, unifies vertical profiling through the entire ionosphere with global coverage. Inversion methods are described both for vertical profiling as well as for tree dimensional electron density reconstructions of the ionosphere. In three dimensional electron density reconstructions using signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), the Ionospheric Radio Occultation (IRO) measurements provide vertical information which is complementary to the information obtained by ground based measurements. Assessment of achievable accuracy and spatial resolution are addressed by simulation studies. IRO measurements have been carried out onboard the German CHAMP satellite since 11 April 2001 on a routine basis. Assuming a spherically layered ionosphere, up to about 150 Electron Density Profiles (EDPs) per day are retrieved within a latency of 3 h. Validation results obtained by using independent data sources are reported. The validation with vertical sounding data in mid-latitudes indicates a small positive bias in the plasma frequency of up to about 0.5 MHz throughout the entire profile. Averages of the numerous EDPs show wellknown ionospheric phenomena such as the equatorial anomaly, the winter anomaly and the expansion of the profile with increasing solar energy input. It is concluded that CHAMP-IRO measurements have the potential to establish global data sets of vertical electron density profiles for developing and improving global ionospheric models and to provide operational space weather information.