Space Debris Model Research Articles

Reliability of space debris modeling and the impact on current and future space flight activities

All future space flight activities have to be designed and operated with respect to the increasing threat posed by the steadily growing space debris environment. Information about current nature and possible evolution of the environment, especially in the small size range, can be obtained only by Space Debris modeling. Results derived from modeling forecasts are leading to strong demands for incisive changes of S/F policies, e.g. deorbiting strategies. Hence, the reliability of these predictions is of paramount importance and has therefore always been a point of discussion. This paper identifies and discusses the essential uncertainty sources in the modeling components and traces their influence up to the modeling results. The need of further experiments and research work in order to diminish current uncertainty ranges is highlighted. Nevertheless this analysis identifies basic tendencies which, independent from all modeling uncertainties, may serve as a reliable base for the discussion of future S/F policies.