Sovereign Bond Research Articles

Investigating the muti-scaling properties and connectedness of the sovereign bond yields: Hurst exponent and network analysis approach

Using daily yield data of 14 sovereign bond markets from emerging and developed economies from July 10, 2000, to July 10, 2022, we examine their scaling properties using generalized Hurst exponent and spectral density analysis and investigate the connectedness based on a network analysis approach. We consider the yields of 2-year and 10-year bond yields to investigate the scaling properties for short- and long-term sovereign bonds. This selection also allows us to examine sovereign bond spreads with respect to the USA. We also use regularized partial correlation network analysis to connect different countries in communities based on yields. We find that the scaling behavior of the bond yields for both terms fits well using the Hurst exponent and spectral analysis confirms this finding. Moreover, we also find that even though bonds in both cohorts show anti-persistent behavior except that of the USA, the developed economies' bond yields are relatively less anti-persistent as compared to those of emerging economies. The networks of both the 2-year and 10-year yields indicate community formation in various countries which provides diversification benefits to the investors. Most of the emerging countries are classified into one community in the long-tenure bonds as well but this concentration is more evident in the short-tenure bonds.

Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields

Abstract We study the co-movement in international zero-coupon government bond yields using a recently proposed methodology by Choi et al. (2018) and Choi et al. (2021) for the estimation of multilevel factor models. We employ a readily available non-proprietary dataset coupled with open-source code which facilitates reproduction of the results but also comparability with the existing bibliography. The ten countries dataset is cross-sectionally expanded to eleven countries with newly constructed data series on the term structure of Greek constant-maturity, government zero-coupon bond rates. We find that the country pair US-Germany is most suitable as an initial candidate for global factor estimation. We confirm that three global factors account for most of the variation in zero-coupon bond yields leaving a small proportion to be (contemporaneously) explained by local factors. Global inflation and global real activity are related to the global level and slope factors. The third global factor, “curvature,” is strongly related to economic/financial uncertainty linked to systemic risk stemming from the US financial markets. JEL classification numbers: C10, E43, G12, G15. Keywords: Sovereign bonds; Yield curve; Term structure; Multilevel factor model; Global factors; Local factors.

Political ties and the yield curve

We examine the effect of political ties with the US on sovereign yields and ratings at various horizons. We find beneficial effects across both short- and long-term yields and ratings. Specifically, we find that stronger political ties with the US affect mainly the level of the yield curve of foreign sovereign bonds. These results imply that the market perceives political ties with the US as having both near- and long-term beneficial consequences.

Borrowing Costs after Sovereign Debt Relief

Can debt moratoria help countries weather negative shocks? We exploit the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to study the bond market effects of deferring official debt repayments. Using daily data on sovereign bond spreads and synthetic control methods, we show that countries eligible for official debt relief experience a larger decline in borrowing costs compared to similar, ineligible countries. This decline is stronger for countries that receive a larger relief, suggesting that the effect works through liquidity provision. By contrast, the results do not support the concern that official debt relief could generate stigma on financial markets. (JEL F34, G12, H63, O16)

Detecting business cycles for Hungarian leading and coincident indicators with a Markov switching dynamic model to improve sustainability in economic growth

This paper applies the hidden Markov switching dynamic regression (MSDR) model to estimate transition probabilities of the Hungarian GDP between recessionary and expansionary periods. The transition probabilities are then compared to the OECD Hungarian binary business cycle indicator to assess the predictive power of the model. The paper proposes a linear model with a mean and a homoscedastic component. The level of symmetricity between the GDP and business cycles is explained by the panel data variables (Unemployment rate, IPI index, Inflation, BUX year-on-year change, and 10-3 Year sovereign bond yield spreads). It is assumed in this paper that by extending the model to encompass an exogenous variable listed in the panel data, essentially making the model bivariate, the maximum likelihood function would capture the business cycle more accurately. The results show that by plugging the unemployment rate as the exogenous variable in the regression, our model’s accuracy is 70%.

Overcoming ‘original sin’ to secure policy space

AbstractMore than two decades after the emerging market crises of the 1990s, foreign investors are now active investors in emerging-market local-currency-denominated sovereign bonds. In this sense, emerging market governments have overcome ‘Original Sin’—the dictum that emerging market borrowers cannot borrow from foreigners in their own currency. However, although the borrowers no longer bear the risk of currency mismatches, the mismatch has migrated to the lenders’ balance sheet in the sense that investors evaluate gains and losses in terms of dollars or other major currencies. This paper examines the associated risks and potential remedies to financial stability risks stemming from this migration of currency mismatch from the borrower to the lender.

Sovereign Bond Yield Differentials across Europe: A Structural Entropy Perspective

This study uses structural entropy as a valuable method for studying complex networks in a macro-finance context, such as the European government bond market. We make two contributions to the empirical literature on sovereign bond markets and entropy in complex networks. Firstly, our article contributes to the empirical literature on the disciplinary function of credit markets from an entropy perspective. In particular, we study bond yield differentials at an average daily frequency among EU countries' 10-year Eurobonds issued between 1 January 1997, and 4 October 2022. Secondly, the article brings a methodological novelty by incorporating an entropy perspective to the study of government bond yield differentials and European capital market integration. Entropy-based methods hold strong potential to bring new sources of dynamism and valuable contributions to the areas of macroeconomics and finance.

Do green financial policies offset the climate transition risk penalty imposed on long-term sovereign bond yields?

Asset valuations in high-carbon sectors face significant corrections due to climate risks. This paper specifically analyses whether markets impose a penalty on long-term sovereign bonds issued by countries facing higher climate-related transition risk while rewarding those that have implemented green financial policies to mitigate these risks. We find that higher carbon dioxide emissions and a lower sustainable development score (both proxies for transition risks) lead to an increase in long-term sovereign bond yields. However, the presence of green financial policies appears to offset this climate transition risk premium.

Modelling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India

Does Indian sovereign yield volatility reflect economic fundamentals, or whether it is a self-generated force flowing through markets with little connection to such fundamentals? To answer the question, this research explores the volatility dynamics and measures the persistence of shocks to the sovereign bond yield volatility in India from 1 January 2016, to 18 May 2022, using a family of GARCH models. The empirical results indicate the high volatility persistence across the maturity spectrum in the sample period. However, upon decomposing the markets into bull and bear phases, our results support the existence of weak volatility persistence and rapid mean reversion in the bear market. This shows that the economic response policies implemented by the government during the pandemic, including fiscal measures, have a restraining effect on sovereign yield volatility. For a positive γ, the results suggest the possibility of a “leverage effect” that is markedly different from that frequently seen in stock markets. Results further indicate that the fluctuations in Indian sovereign yields cannot be dissociated from inflation and money market volatility. Our findings herein provide valuable information and implications for policymakers and financial investors worldwide.

Government Choices of Debt Instruments

Abstract Governments borrow from a range of creditors—commercial banks, sovereign bondholders, official bilateral creditors, and multilateral financial institutions. Sovereigns’ creditor portfolios vary significantly across space and time. While creditor portfolios partly reflect supply-side considerations (macroeconomic profiles and associated default risk), they also reflect governments’ preferences over fiscal transparency. Governments that prefer to disclose less information about economic outcomes will choose borrowing instruments that are less public, such as private loans from banks (versus bondholders) and official sector borrowing from bilateral (versus multilateral) creditors. Empirical analyses of government debt composition across developing nations confirm these predictions. We also find support for our claims at the subnational level, using data from Mexican municipalities. We treat various types of credit (bilateral lending, multilateral finance, and sovereign bonds) as related, rather than distinct.

Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis

We test the interaction between governments’ COVID-19 interventions, COVID-19-induced uncertainty, and the volatility of sovereign bonds. Different from previous literature, we investigate the asymmetric response of bond market volatility to both governmental interventions and COVID-19-induced uncertainty. With a focus on the first waves of the pandemic and using a panel quantile approach and a comprehensive dataset of 31 countries worldwide, we document that containment and closure policies tend to amplify volatility. Furthermore, the price variability is augmented by the spread of the pandemic itself. On the contrary, economic support policies have a substantial stabilizing effect on bond price fluctuations. Both phenomena are not subsumed by additional control variables and are robust to multiple considerations. Our findings may serve financial market participants in their risk management decisions, as well as policymakers to better shape their preparedness for future pandemics.

A Practical Guide to the Valuation of Coupon-Bearing Fixed Income Securities

The purpose of this article is to illustrate the use of reduced-form credit risk models for valuing defaultable coupon-bearing securities, such as risky sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, and retail loans like auto loans and mortgage loans. We focus on issues in the application of these models and not the mathematical derivations of the formulas employed.

Geopolitical Risks and Yield Dynamics in the Australian Sovereign Bond Market

Geopolitical risks and shocks such as military conflicts, terrorist attacks, and war tensions are known to cause significant economic downturns. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the dynamics between Australian sovereign bond yields and geopolitical risk. This is achieved by employing a quantile regression analysis. The findings of this study indicate that the impact of geopolitical risk on Australian sovereign yield dynamics is asymmetrical. Furthermore, an increase in geopolitical risk only impacts short-term yields at extreme regimes. However, the impact is, by and large, insignificant. On the other hand, an increase in geopolitical risk does have a statistically significant positive impact on medium- and long-term yields across most quantiles. Lastly, an increase in geopolitical risk tends to result in a steeper yield curve at the belly of the curve but causes the yield curve to flatten at the long end. This study is the first study that holistically examines the dynamics between geopolitical risk and Australian sovereign bond yields. The study thereby contributes to the body of knowledge on Australian bond yields, specifically, and adds to the sparse body of knowledge on the dynamics between geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields. The findings of this study have implications for monetary policy makers, given that shifts in sovereign bond yields could impact all three core mandates of the Australian Reserve Bank. Furthermore, changes in the slope of the yieldcurve could be used by monetary policy makers to pre-empt changes in future economic growth. The results of this study also relate to fiscal policy formulation, given that yields directly impact the cost of government borrowing. Lastly, portfolio managers could benefit from the results of this study, as these results provide information on the ability of Australian sovereign bonds to hedge against geopolitical risk.

Determinants of bid-ask spread in emerging sovereign bond markets

Determinants of bid-ask spread in emerging sovereign bond markets

Euro area sovereign bond risk premia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic

We provide a novel modeling framework to decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: (i) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, (ii) a default risk premium, (iii) redenomination risk premium, (iv) liquidity risk premium, and (v) segmentation (convenience) premium. Identification is achieved by considering sovereign yields jointly with other rates, including sovereign credit default swap spreads with and without redenomination as a credit event trigger. We illustrate our model by studying yield components embedded in German, French, Italian, and Spanish sovereign bonds, before and after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and by examining the impact of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and European Union (EU) fiscal policy announcements in response to the pandemic. We find that all five risk premia became sizable following the onset of the pandemic, and that both monetary and fiscal policy announcements had a pronounced effect on yields, mostly through default, redenomination, and segmentation (convenience) premia.

The Impact of ESG Implementation on the Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: An Empirical Analysis of ASEAN Countries

Sovereign bond performance is gaining traction in ASEAN countries, but there are challenges, such as high sovereign risk. This can happen for a number of reasons, such as economic downturns, political instability, or ineffective fiscal management. Investors may be less willing to invest in a country’s bonds if the country is perceived to have a high bond risk. By maintaining sustainable performance such as implementing ESG can be a solution for lowering risk and gaining investor interest in portfolio diversification. The aggregated ESG score and bond spread have a statistically significant relationship, according to the study’s findings, with a negative relationship of -0.112 and the component social indicator being the most powerful. With a significance of 0.033, the relationship between ESG score and bond yield spread becomes stronger over time. The author recommends that countries assess current ESG practices, establish ESG targets and goals, develop an implementation plan, engage stakeholders, monitor progress, and make necessary changes to reduce sovereign risk. This demonstrates a country’s commitment to ESG while also improving its performance, making it more appealing as an investment destination.

Forecasting sovereign risk in the Euro area via machine learning

AbstractWe test the usefulness of machine learning (ML) for the valuation and pricing of sovereign risk in the Euro area along two important dimensions: i) its predictive accuracy compared with traditional econometric methods, and ii) its assessment of the main economic factors underlying market perceptions of sovereign risk.We find that ML techniques can capture the dynamics inherent in the market valuation of country risk far more efficiently than traditional econometric models, both in the cross‐section and in the time series. Moreover, we show that public sentiment about financial news, redenomination fears and the degree of hawkishness/dovishness expressed in the ECB president's speeches are major contributors to sovereign bond spreads. We also confirm that macroeconomic and global financial factors affect sovereign risk assessment and the corresponding formation of sovereign spreads.

On Debt and climate

Abstract This article discusses the links between climate and debt sustainability by focusing on how climate mitigation and adaptation are paid for, and who pays for it. This requires thinking about instruments such as sovereign bonds, carbon credits, conditional official grants and debt relief from both public and private sources. The article discusses the role of green bonds, carbon offsets, grants and debt relief. Among these solutions, no single instrument appears to be right for all countries or at all times. To move forward, we make six proposals and policy recommendations that can jointly address climate change and debt sustainability.

A Comparative Analysis of External Debt in the East African Community Countries

Borrowing to finance public infrastructure has pushed debt levels to record highs within the East African Community (EAC) countries. Total external debt stock grew by 333.38 percent between 1970 and 2020. The rise in external debt exceeded growth in GDP and exports in all the countries except for the Democratic Republic of Congo between 2010 and 2020. The situation could have been worse had it not been for a massive external debt cancellation by the international community under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) programmes that benefitted all the EAC countries except Kenya. Virtually all the countries are increasingly borrowing more long-term than short-term external loans. Multilateral and official bilateral creditors continue to be the major financiers in all the countries even though these countries are gradually diversifying their sources of borrowing. All the EAC countries except Burundi had publicly guaranteed private sector external debt from commercial banks between 2010 and 2020. Three of the countries, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda, had nonguaranteed private sector external debt during the period. Two countries, Kenya and Rwanda, have joined a fast growing number of African countries that are issuing international sovereign bonds. The EAC countries are in a vulnerable position, with public external debt already at elevated levels. Trends in some of the external debt ratios including debt-to GDP, debt-to-exports, and debt service-to-exports ratios suggest that these countries could face challenges in servicing their external debts and meeting other foreign exchange obligations. High levels of external debt seem to have led to a vicious cycle of debt. Even after benefitting from the HIPC and MDRI debt relief programmes, the countries are once again facing high debt ratios. In light of the above findings, governments of the EAC countries should: look for improved terms on new loans; restructure external commercial loans that have heavy maturities and high interest rates; continue to diversify sources of external financing to reduce high dependency on expensive loans; make concerted efforts to increase concessional public external debt; explore non-debt creating financing options for public investments such as Public Private Partnerships; and look into refinancing expensive debt with debt on more favourable terms. Keywords : External debt, multilateral and bilateral debt, publicly guaranteed debt, external debt indicators, vicious cycle of debt DOI: 10.7176/JESD/14-4-01 Publication date: February 28 th 2023

Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis.