Southwest Indian Ocean Research Articles

Settlement patterns and temporal successions of coral reef cryptic communities affect diversity assessments using autonomous reef monitoring structures (ARMS)

Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) are used worldwide to assess cryptic diversity, especially on coral reefs. They were developed as standardised tools, yet conditions of deployment, such as immersion duration and/or deployment and retrieval seasons, vary among studies. Here we studied temporal and seasonal variability in coral reef cryptic communities sampled with 15 ARMS on a single coral reef slope site at Reunion Island, Southwest Indian Ocean. Settlement patterns and temporal succession of Eukaryote communities were investigated across three immersion times (6 months, 1 year, 2 years), two immersion seasons (hot vs. cool) and three fractions (500–2000 μm, 106–500 μm, sessile) using two genetic markers (18S, COI). Both markers detected different taxa with different resolutions, but broadly similar patterns of community composition and structure. While OTU diversity of communities did not change with immersion time and season, these parameters significantly affected community structure and composition. Our results showed a decrease of the similarity of ARMS communities with duration of immersion, and a strong temporal turnover of species with only a small proportion of the diversity persisting over time. The small proportion of OTUs assigned at phylum level highlights the uniqueness of the Mascarene cryptobiome.

Killer Whale Predation on a Giant Manta Ray (Mobula birostris), a Sicklefin Devil Ray (Mobula tarapacana) and a Tiger Shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) in the Southwest Indian Ocean

ABSTRACTKnowledge of killer whale (Orcinus orca) feeding ecology in tropical waters is scarce. In the southwest Indian Ocean, opportunistic sightings provide a valuable source of information to better understand their behaviour, diet and distribution. Here, we compile existing records of killer whale predation on elasmobranchs in the southwest Indian Ocean, including sightings of three undescribed prey species regionally: a giant manta ray (Mobula birostris), a sicklefin devil ray (Mobula tarapacana) and a tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Documenting such observations is important to increase knowledge on killer whale ecology in the tropics and the cascading impact they might have on prey populations.

Wintertime productivity and carbon export potential across the Agulhas Current system

The Agulhas Current plays a major role in heat and salt exchange between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, yet little is known of its influence on ocean fertility. To investigate carbon production and export potential in the Agulhas Current system, we measured net primary production (NPP), nitrate and ammonium uptake, N2 fixation, and nitrification along a transect of the current and adjacent subtropical subgyre (33.4°S–35.7°S) in winter when nutrient supply, and thus productivity, should be highest. Phytoplankton biomass was lowest in the current core, increasing into the subgyre as surface nitrate declined, and was dominated by nanoplankton (2.7–10 μm; 62 ± 5.1% of total biomass). NPP and nitrate uptake were generally high across the transect and increased from the current core into the subgyre; the rates were dominated by picoplankton (<2.7 μm; 53–93%) in the current core and nanoplankton elsewhere (63–69%). On average, euphotic zone nitrification supplied 7.6 ± 6.4% of the nitrate consumed by phytoplankton and N2 fixation was also low (2.1 ± 1.3% of new production); we thus consider nitrate uptake a reasonable proxy for new production, at least in winter. Nitrate uptake was highest at the southern edge of the current core, consistent with current-associated (sub)mesoscale mixing enhancing the upward nutrient supply. The fraction of NPP available for export (i.e., the f-ratio) was high across the transect, ranging from 0.44 to 0.69. Our data thus indicate that both total and new production are elevated across the Agulhas Current system in winter and suggest that the (sub)mesoscale dynamics associated with the current system may enhance carbon production and export in the otherwise oligotrophic southwest Indian Ocean.

Vector competence of Aedes albopictus field populations from Reunion Island exposed to local epidemic dengue viruses

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent mosquito-borne Flavivirus that affects humans worldwide. Aedes albopictus, which is naturally infected with the bacteria Wolbachia, is considered to be a secondary vector of DENV. However, it was responsible for a recent DENV outbreak of unprecedented magnitude in Reunion Island, a French island in the South West Indian Ocean. Moreover, the distribution of the cases during this epidemic showed a spatially heterogeneous pattern across the island, leading to questions about the differential vector competence of mosquito populations from different geographic areas. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the vector competence of the Ae. albopictus populations from Reunion Island for local DENV epidemic strains, while considering their infection by Wolbachia. Experimental infections were conducted using ten populations of Ae. albopictus sampled across Reunion Island and exposed to three DENV strains: one strain of DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) and two strains of DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2). We analyzed three vector competence parameters including infection rate, dissemination efficiency and transmission efficiency, at different days post-exposition (dpe). We also assessed whether there was a correlation between the density of Wolbachia and viral load/vector competence parameters. Our results show that the Ae. albopictus populations tested were not able to transmit the two DENV-2 strains, while transmission efficiencies up to 40.79% were observed for the DENV-1 strain, probably due to difference in viral titres. Statistical analyses showed that the parameters mosquito population, generation, dpe and area of sampling significantly affect the transmission efficiencies of DENV-1. Although the density of Wolbachia varied according to mosquito population, no significant correlation was found between Wolbachia density and either viral load or vector competence parameters for DENV-1. Our results highlight the importance of using natural mosquito populations for a better understanding of transmission patterns of dengue.

Creolization and Gender: Island Imaginings in Ananda Devi's Pagli and Its Sequel

Abstract: This essay opens the study of "Archipelagic Asias" to the southwest Indian Ocean archipelagos to explore representations of Indic cultures in the literature of the creolized islands of Mauritius. By combining archipelagic and feminist epistemologies, I examine one of the most successful novels of Ananda Devi, Pagli (2001), in which an Indo-Mauritian woman has an affair with a Creole fisherman, and its little-known short story sequel, "Agalega" (2021). Published in Maudrigosa!, a volume celebrating the Mauritian archipelago, the short story denounces the construction of an Indian military base on the Mauritius Outer Island of Agalega. I argue that literary representations of Mauritius's geographic space form different island imaginings that express Mauritius's affective relation to its creolized culture and the impact it has on women's corporeal and sexual freedom.

Barau's petrel, Pterodroma baraui, as a bioindicator of plastic pollution in the South-West Indian Ocean: A multifaceted approach

Marine plastic pollution is well described by bioindicator species in temperate and polar regions but remains understudied in tropical oceans. We addressed this gap by evaluating the seabird Barau's petrel as bioindicator of plastic pollution in the South-West Indian Ocean. We conducted a multifaceted approach including necropsies of birds to quantify plastic ingestion; GPS tracking of breeding adults to identify their foraging areas; manta trawling of plastic debris to measure plastic pollution at sea and modelling of plastic dispersal. We developed a spatial risk index of seabird exposure to plastic ingestion. Seventy-one percent of the analysed birds had ingested plastic. GPS tracking coupled with manta trawling and dispersal modelling show that adults consistently foraged at places with high level of plastic concentration. The highest ingestion risk occurred in the northwest of Reunion Island and at latitude 30°S. Our findings confirm that Barau's petrel is a reliable bioindicator of plastic pollution in the region.

Detection, characterization, and phylogenetic analysis of novel astroviruses from endemic Malagasy fruit bats

Bats (order: Chiroptera) are known to host a diverse range of viruses, some of which present a human public health risk. Thorough viral surveillance is therefore essential to predict and potentially mitigate zoonotic spillover. Astroviruses (family: Astroviridae) are an understudied group of viruses with a growing amount of indirect evidence for zoonotic transfer. Astroviruses have been detected in bats with significant prevalence and diversity, suggesting that bats may act as important astrovirus hosts. Most astrovirus surveillance in wild bat hosts has, to date, been restricted to single-gene PCR detection and concomitant Sanger sequencing; additionally, many bat species and many geographic regions have not yet been surveyed for astroviruses at all. Here, we use metagenomic Next Generation Sequencing (mNGS) to detect astroviruses in three species of Madagascar fruit bats, Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus, and Rousettus madagascariensis. We detect numerous partial sequences from all three species and one near-full length astrovirus sequence from Rousettus madagascariensis, which we use to characterize the evolutionary history of astroviruses both within bats and the broader mammalian clade, Mamastrovirus. Taken together, applications of mNGS implicate bats as important astrovirus hosts and demonstrate novel patterns of bat astrovirus evolutionary history, particularly in the Southwest Indian Ocean region.

A Comparative Study of Human Leptospirosis between Mayotte and Reunion Islands Highlights Distinct Clinical and Microbial Features Arising from Distinct Inter-Island Bacterial Ecology.

Leptospirosis is a neglected zoonosis for which investigations assessing host-pathogen interaction are scarce. The aim of this study was to compare the severity and bacterial species involved in human cases of leptospirosis on Reunion and Mayotte islands, territories located in the southwest Indian Ocean that have recorded high human leptospirosis incidence but display fairly distinct epidemiological situations. A retrospective multicentric study including all patients over 18 years of age from Mayotte or Reunion with proven leptospirosis was conducted from January 2018 to April 2020. This study collected demographic, geographical, clinical, and biological data. Overall, 490 patients were included, 222 on Mayotte and 268 on Reunion. More patients were hospitalized on Reunion (n = 215, 80%) compared with Mayotte (n = 102, 46%). Severe disease was more common on Reunion (n = 75, 28%) than on Mayotte (n = 22, 10%). The dominant Leptospira species on Reunion was Leptospira interrogans (79%) followed by Leptospira borgpetersenii (21%), contrasting with the epidemiological situation on Mayotte where L. interrogans was found in only a minority of patients (10%). The high frequency of severe cases on Reunion could be explained not only by higher comorbidities but also by the higher occurrence of L. interrogans infections compared with Mayotte. Finally, the distribution of cases linked to L. borgpetersenii was found almost exclusively on the west coast of Reunion, raising the potential role of a ruminant reservoir.

New COI-COII mtDNA Region Haplotypes in the Endemic Honey Bees Apis mellifera intermissa and Apis mellifera sahariensis (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Algeria.

The practice of beekeeping in Algeria is of great cultural, social, and economic importance. However, the importation of non-local subspecies reported by beekeepers has disrupted the natural geographical distribution area and the genetic diversity of the native honey bees. To assess the genetic diversity of A. m. intermissa and A. m. sahariensis, and their relationships with African and European subspecies, the COI-COII intergenic region was analyzed in 335 individuals, 68 sampled in Algeria, 71 in Europe, Madagascar, and the South West Indian Ocean archipelagos, and 196 sequences recovered from GenBank. The results show the presence of the A lineage exclusively in Algerian samples with the identification of 24 haplotypes of which 16 are described for the first time. These haplotypes were found to be shared by both subspecies, with A74 being the most common haplotype in the population studied. The sequence comparison indicates the existence of three polymorphisms of the COI-COII marker: P0Q, P0QQ, and P0QQQ. One new haplotype was identified in the M lineage in samples from France. No evidence of genetic introgression within the Algerian honey bee population was detected. These data enhance our knowledge of the genetic diversity and emphasize the importance of protecting these local subspecies.

Evidence of a dual African and Australian biomass burning influence on the vertical distribution of aerosol and carbon monoxide over the southwest Indian Ocean basin in early 2020

Abstract. During the 2020 austral summer, the pristine atmosphere of the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin experienced significant perturbations. This study examines the variability of aerosols and carbon monoxide (CO) over this remote oceanic region and investigates the underlying processes in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UT-LS). Aerosol profiles in January and February 2020 revealed a multi-layer structure in the tropical UT-LS. Numerical models – the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) and the Modèle Isentropique de transport Mésoéchelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA) – indicated that the lower-stratospheric aerosol content was influenced by the intense and persistent stratospheric aerosol layer generated during the 2019–2020 extreme Australian bushfire events. A portion of this layer was transported eastward by prevailing easterly winds, leading to increased aerosol extinction profiles over Réunion on 27 and 28 January. Analysis of advected potential vorticity revealed isentropic transport of air masses containing Australian biomass burning aerosols from extratropical latitudes to Réunion at the 400 K isentropic level on 28 January. Interestingly, we found that biomass burning (BB) activity in eastern Africa, though weak during this season, significantly influenced (contributed up to 90 % of) the vertical distribution of CO and aerosols in the upper troposphere over the SWIO basin. Ground-based observations at Réunion confirmed the simultaneous presence of African and Australian aerosol layers. This study provides the first evidence of African BB emissions impacting the CO and aerosol distribution in the upper troposphere over the SWIO basin during the convective season.

A framework for national-scale coastal storm hazards early warning

National weather forecasting agencies routinely issue a range of hazard warnings. But to our knowledge, along sandy coastlines where storm waves and storm surge can result in widespread but location-specific beach erosion and beachfront flooding, no national-scale early warning service for these hazards is presently operational. This paper outlines the scientific basis and implementation of a new framework for large area coastal storm hazards forecasting, currently being tested along the southwest (Indian Ocean) and southeast (Pacific Ocean) coasts of Australia. The system provides 7-day rolling predictions of localized beach erosion and/or coastal flooding linked to forecasted extreme weather events. Coastal setting influences the nature and occurrence of these hazards, with sandy beaches along wave-dominated coasts more prone to erosion and at surge-dominated coasts to flooding. An existing nearshore water-level forecasting system and a new inshore wave modeling capability are used to forecast beach erosion and coastal flooding at every 100 m along the shore. At the regional scale O(100–1 000 km of coastline), a threshold-based decision tree model categorises the predicted extent, location, and severity of erosion and flooding. At a more local scale O(100–1 000 m), physics-based modeling using XBeach focuses on vulnerable or high-value locations, providing specific storm hazard indicators tailored to local needs. This two-tier approach is feasible for national implementation due to the reduced computational effort, limiting intensive modeling to pre-identified critical locations. Delft-FEWS manages the data and modeling workflow, ensuring scalability and compatibility with existing forecast infrastructure. Initial evaluations of the system are promising, with a detailed 2-year evaluation in progress. Future enhancements could include the use of satellite imagery for real-time beach width and dune topography assimilation and exploring alternative modeling approaches to further improve forecast accuracy.

Coral reef potential connectivity in the southwest Indian Ocean

The tropical southwest Indian Ocean is a coral biodiversity hotspot, with remote reefs physically connected by larval dispersal through eddies and a complex set of equatorial and boundary currents. Based on multidecadal, 2 km resolution hydrodynamic and larval dispersal models that incorporate temporal variability in dispersal, we find that powerful zonal currents, current bifurcations, and geographic isolation act as leaky dispersal barriers, partitioning the southwest Indian Ocean into clusters of reefs that tend to consistently retain larvae, and therefore gene flow, over many generations. Whilst exceptionally remote, the Chagos Archipelago can broadcast (and receive) considerable numbers of larvae to (and from) reefs across the wider southwest Indian Ocean, most significantly exchanging larvae with the Inner Islands of Seychelles, but also the Mozambique Channel region. Considering multi-generational dispersal indicates that most coral populations in the southwest Indian Ocean are physically connected within a few hundred steps of dispersal. These results suggest that regional biogeography and population structure can be largely attributed to geologically recent patterns of larval dispersal, although some notable discrepancies indicate that palaeogeography and environmental suitability also play an important role. The model output and connectivity matrices are available in full and will provide useful physical context to regional biogeography and connectivity studies, as well as supporting marine spatial planning efforts.

Interannual variability of the East African Coastal Current associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Abstract The East African Coastal Current (EACC) is an important western boundary current of the tropical South Indian Ocean and plays an important role in the ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycles in the Indian Ocean. This study investigates the interannual variability of the EACC and its dynamical mechanisms. The result shows that the EACC has interannual variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1993-2017. The EACC shows a significantly positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index with a correlation coefficient of 0.65, lagging the Niño3.4 index by 18 months. During the decaying phases of El Niño (La Niña) events, the negative (positive) sea level anomaly (SLA) propagates westward as upwelling (downwelling) Rossby waves from the southeast Indian Ocean to the southwest Indian Ocean, and then strengthens (weakens) the EACC due to zonal SLA gradient off the East African coast under geostrophic equilibrium. The SLA gradually weakens in the southeast Indian Ocean during its westward propagation but strengthens in the southwest Indian Ocean promoted by local wind stress curl anomaly. This study can improve our understanding of the relationship between the western boundary current of the tropical South Indian Ocean and large-scale ENSO air-sea processes, and is important for managing marine fisheries and ecosystems on the East African coast.

Biogenic and lithogenic silicon along the GEOTRACES south West Indian Ocean section (SWINGS-GS02) and the islands mass effect on regional Si biogeochemical cycle

The distribution and cycling of biogenic silica (BSi) and lithogenic silicon (LSi) in the ocean play crucial roles in the global silicon cycle and marine ecosystem dynamics. This is especially the case in the Southern Ocean where diatoms constitute the predominant phytoplankton and participate in a major way to the biological carbon pump. This study presents an assessment of BSi and LSi concentrations along the GEOTRACES South West Indian Ocean Section (SWINGS, late austral summer 2021), where several and contrasting regions were encountered: oligotrophic Mozambique basin, HNLC (High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll) areas and regions fertilized by the Subantarctic islands. Suspended particles were sampled from Niskin bottles and in situ pumps, along with scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations and specific pigments measurements to support BSi and LSi analyses. With samples coming from a contrasting study area prone to diverse continental influences, our BSi and LSi results showed a reproducibility of 13 ± 7%, in the same range as the established protocol. BSi concentrations show a north-south gradient with maxima encountered in the Antarctic Zone, and contrasted results between HNLC open ocean areas and naturally fertilized regions in the vicinity of the Subantarctic islands. Some open ocean stations have unusually high BSi (e.g. > 5 μmol L−1) likely resulting from fertilization by aerosols, upwelling or island mass effect when they are downstream of the islands. Coupling of BSi with SEM observations and pigments measurements respectively showed diatoms were the most representative of the carrying phase of BSi and suggested silicification changes, induced either by heavily silicified diatoms or by micronutrient limitation in HNLC regions. BSi is often dominated by the smallest size fraction (0.45–5 μm) which represent 47 ± 23% of the total BSi based on 29 measurements on size fractionated samples. LSi results highlighted atmospheric inputs at the surface and nepheloid layers in the water column, which makes LSi overall a good indicator of the origin of lithogenic materials. SEM observations supported these results, enabling characterization of the diversity of lithogenic materials in the vicinity of the Subantarctic islands, more specifically volcanic ash around Heard Island, and within the nepheloid layers.

Historical imprints on genetic population structure in direct-developing beach whelks (Bullia digitalis)

Marine organisms often show deep genetic divergence between lineages that are characterized by shallow population structure. The distinction of historical and contemporary demographic forces in creating and maintaining these genetic patterns is crucial for management and conservation. In this study, we examined the genetic population structure of Bullia digitalis, a lecithotrophic sandy beach whelk that lacks a pelagic larval phase and is thus expected to show limited connectivity between populations. Mitochondrial (mt)DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI; 540 bp, n = 214) and a reanalysis of allozyme data (14 loci, n = 735) among populations along the cool southeast Atlantic (west) and warm-temperate southwest Indian Ocean (south) coasts of southern Africa showed a strong phylogeographic break across Cape Point with mtDNA (ΦRT = 0.6, p &lt; 0.001), but a weak break with allozymes (FRT = 0.002, p = 0.004). MtDNA gene flow occurred asymmetrically from the west to the south coast. Although there was no mtDNA differentiation between populations on either side of that break (ΦSR = 0.0), there was weak but significant isolation by distance (IBD) among south coast samples (r2 = 0.20, p = 0.039). In contrast, significant allozyme differentiation was detected on small spatial scales but without overall IBD. MtDNA mismatch analysis indicated a recent range expansion, suggesting historic population expansions, most likely during periods of lower sea levels and greater habitat continuity along southern African shores. Thus, the apparent mtDNA connectivity among populations of beach whelks likely reflects historic, rather than contemporary, gene flow.

Comparative analysis of the variability and impacts of tropical cyclones in flood-prone areas of Zimbabwe

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme meteorological events that cause significant deaths, infrastructure damage, and financial losses around the world. In recent years, the Eastern Highlands of Zimbabwe's have become increasingly vulnerable to TCs caused by Indian Ocean tropical cyclones making landfall more frequently. There is still a limited understanding of the phenomenon and the quantification of its impacts. The aim of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of the variability in the severity of tropical cyclones by analysing historical storm tracks and mapping the environmental impacts in Zimbabwe's Chimanimani and Chipinge districts. Results indicate that, between 1945 and 2022, the Eastern Highlands of Zimbabwe experienced 5 of the total 865 cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The maximum sustained winds from the Cyclone Idai in the Eastern Highlands were recorded as 195 km/h. Some of the remote sensing-based indices used to extract spatial information about the condition of vegetation, wetlands, built-up area, and bar land during pre and post cyclonic events included the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI). Analysis of NDVI in the Eastern Highlands revealed that there was a significant decrease in vegetated area because of the cyclone impact, with a decrease of 2.1% and 16.68% for cyclone Japhet and Idai respectively. The MNDWI shows a 10.74% increase in water content after cyclone Eline. Field validation in 2019 confirms the research findings. An Operations Dashboard Disaster Management System was developed in order to disseminate information to the affected stakeholders about the potential risk that the face due to the occurrence of the natural phenomena.

Quantifying climatic suitability for tourism in Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Islands: Applying the Holiday Climate Index to Réunion Island.

Climate is a key resource for tourists and tourism providers. Varied approaches to quantifying climate resources for tourism have been developed in the last 40years, computing indices from a range of meteorological variables to measure the comparative climatic suitability of different destinations through time. This study provides the first application of a tourism climate index in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean, applying the recently developed Holiday Climate Index (HCI) for Réunion Island. The suitability of this index is evaluated for the case of this French department, with a particular focus on air conditioning availability in tourism accommodation establishments as this index excludes night-time thermal comfort. Both iterations of the HCI (HCIBeach and HCIUrban) are computed with meteorological data from Roland Garros Airport for the period 1991-2020, exploring monthly, annual, and seasonal climatic suitability. Mean monthly HCI scores reveal considerable seasonality in climatic suitability for tourism on the island with scores ranging from 89.3 ('excellent') to 36.9 ('marginal') for the HCIBeach and 85.0 ('excellent') to 27.5 ('unacceptable') for the HCIUrban, with more favourable scores calculated for July and August, displaying a clear austral winter peak seasonal classification. Over the 30-year period, there is no statically significant change in mean annual climatic suitability, and at a monthly scale, only one month of the year for each index displays statistically significant trends. These results are important in informing tourism strategies for the island to maximise visitor satisfaction through targeting advertising more deliberately for peak touristic climate suitability during the winter months.

Calcareous nannofossil records and the migration of the Agulhas Return Current during the last 40 kyr

The Agulhas Return Current (ARC) transports warm tropical and subtropical waters eastward into the southern Indian Ocean. It plays a crucial role in the oceanographic connections between the Indian, Atlantic, and Southern oceans. Modern oceanographic observations show that the latitudinal position of the ARC varies interannually. However, its historical positional variations remain poorly understood. Calcareous nannofossils can be a good indicator of ancient current migration, although their record in the Southwest Indian Ocean is poorly studied. This research aims to understand the characteristics and downcore variation of the calcareous nannofossil assemblages and trace the record of the ancient ARC. To achieve these goals, this study analyzed pelagic sediments of multicore 34IV-SWIR-S021MC03, 34IV-SWIR-S032MC04, and 34IV-SWIR-S040MC05 from the Southwest Indian Ocean. A total of 13 nannofossil species have been identified. The assemblages belong to the subtropical convergence zone regime. They are characterized by warm and cold water species, dominated by Emiliania huxleyi, Calcidiscus leptoporus, Gephyrocapsa muellerae, and Florisphaera profunda. According to the AMS14C age model and phytoplankton ecological signatures, this study establishes a calcareous nannofossil indicator to trace the migration of the ancient ARC during the last 40 kyr. The result shows three periods of migration: 40–22 kyr, the ancient ARC was in the far north and was moving southward; 22–14 kyr, a transitional period, the ancient ARC was moving northward; 14–3 kyr, the ARC was moving southward. This further suggests that the migration of the ancient ARC is more complex than the two recognized phases, and there were essential turning points around the last glacial maximum period. It also acknowledges that the ancient ARC is sensitive to interglacial periods and can be influenced simultaneously by the Southern Hemisphere monsoon and westerly winds.

Influence of convective parameterization on the simulation of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean: A case study of tropical cyclone Idai (2019)

Proper configuration of the physical parameterization scheme is important for accurate outcomes of mesoscale weather forecasting model. This study evaluates the performance of four distinct cumulus parameterization schemes: the Kain-Fritsch (KF), Grell 3D ensemble (GR3D), Modified Tiedtke (MTIEDKE) and Modified Kain-Fritsch (MKF) schemes, in simulating Tropical Cyclone (TC) Idai (2019) in the Southern Indian Ocean. Utilizing the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and TC best-track and satellite precipitation datasets, the research assesses the models' efficacy in replicating Idai's observed track and intensity. Results indicate that the KF, MTIEDKE, and MKF schemes reasonably capture Idai's southwestward track, with MKF demonstrating superior accuracy in reproducing observed intensity evolution. Conversely, the GR3D simulation exhibits a northwestward deviation, leading to notable track and intensity errors. Further investigations suggest that the smaller track and intensity differences in the MKF simulation are linked to the more accurate simulation of rainfall in both the surrounding environment and the TC inner-core region. The two factors exert strong influences on the large-scale steering flow and TC secondary circulation, respectively. The findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate convective parameterization schemes for precise tropical cyclone simulations in the Southern Indian Ocean. This research contributes valuable insights into the intricate interaction between convective processes and atmospheric dynamics, offering implications for enhancing tropical cyclone prediction models in the region.

How well can global ensemble forecasts predict tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean?

AbstractThe southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) recently experienced its most active, costliest and deadliest cyclone season on record (2018–2019). The anticipation and forecasting of natural hazards, such as tropical cyclones, are crucial to preparing for their impacts, but it is important to understand how well forecasting systems can predict them. Despite the vulnerability of the SWIO to tropical cyclones, comparatively little research has focused on this region, including understanding the ability of numerical weather prediction systems to predict cyclones and their impacts in southeast Africa. In this study, we evaluate ensemble probabilistic and high‐resolution deterministic forecasts of tropical cyclones in the SWIO from 2010 to 2020, using two state‐of‐the‐art global forecasting systems: one from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the other from the U.K. Met Office. We evaluate predictions of the track, assessing the location of the centre of each storm and its speed of movement, as well as its intensity, looking at maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressure, and discuss how the forecasts have evolved over the 10‐year period. Overall, ECMWF typically provides more accurate forecasts, but both systems tend to underestimate translation speed and intensity. We also investigate the impact of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones and their forecasts. The MJO impacts where and when tropical cyclones form, their tracks and intensities, which in turn impacts forecast skill. These results are intended to provide an increased understanding of the ability of global forecasting systems to predict tropical cyclones in the SWIO, for the purpose of decision making and anticipatory action.