Southward Shift Research Articles

Towards Climate Resilience in the Nile Basin: The Case of the Sudan


 
 Although Africa’s share to the causes of Climate Change is insignificant yet, the continent is the most vulnerable to the impacts of the phenomenon. The Nile Basin witnesses very high population growth rates, severe impacts of climate variability and change and severe food insecurity. About 94% of the Sudan is located in the arid and semiarid regions. Desertification, climate change and other forms of environmental degradation strongly contribute to poverty, displacement and conflicts. Separation of south Sudan imposed huge economic hardships to the country which was formerly reported to achieve economic stability due to the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Recent projections showed that the Sudan will witness severe water shortages of about 30 billion cubic meters by the year 2027. Different factors like the ENSO Event were found to contribute to the variability of the country’s rain fall and consequently, severe droughts, devastating floods and substantial socioeconomic impacts were incurred. Due to Climate Change the rain fall of the country showed 19% reduction and increased variability. Meanwhile, further reduction in rain fall coupled with south ward shift of agro-climatic zones and reduced crop productivity were anticipated. Climate resilience is maintained by creating conducive policy environment, strengthening relevant institutions and early warning systems and implementation of the relevant programs and projects. In addition to that basin (regional) cooperation is of vital importance especially promotion of regional trade, coordinated reservoir operation and joint research. The Higher Council for Civil Defense is the apex body to coordinate disaster management in the Sudan. The paper recommends that the efforts to craft the national water policy, other sectoral policies, the national IWRM plan and the NAP are to be urged.

Ostrich eggshell beads reveal 50,000-year-old social network in Africa

Humans evolved in a patchwork of semi-connected populations across Africa1,2; understanding when and how these groups connected is critical to interpreting our present-day biological and cultural diversity. Genetic analyses reveal that eastern and southern African lineages diverged sometime in the Pleistocene epoch, approximately 350–70 thousand years ago (ka)3,4; however, little is known about the exact timing of these interactions, the cultural context of these exchanges or the mechanisms that drove their separation. Here we compare ostrich eggshell bead variations between eastern and southern Africa to explore population dynamics over the past 50,000 years. We found that ostrich eggshell bead technology probably originated in eastern Africa and spread southward approximately 50–33 ka via a regional network. This connection breaks down approximately 33 ka, with populations remaining isolated until herders entered southern Africa after 2 ka. The timing of this disconnection broadly corresponds with the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which caused periodic flooding of the Zambezi River catchment (an area that connects eastern and southern Africa). This suggests that climate exerted some influence in shaping human social contact. Our study implies a later regional divergence than predicted by genetic analyses, identifies an approximately 3,000-kilometre stylistic connection and offers important new insights into the social dimension of ancient interactions.

How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America?

AbstractThe seasonal response of rainfall over tropical South America to a shutdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is examined, in HadGEM3 model simulations where freshwater is added to the north Atlantic. Potential biases in these simulations are explored by comparing the unperturbed simulation with observations. In this simulation, in years when the latitude of the model Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is realistic, the model provides a reasonable simulation of the spatial and seasonal variation in regional‐scale rainfall over tropical South America. However, some climatological mean rainfall biases over this region are attributed to the climatological southward bias in the Atlantic ITCZ. Under an AMOC shutdown, the rainfall changes over tropical South America are largely associated with a southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ. The large seasonal variation in rainfall change over tropical South America is linked primarily with the variation in the location of peak rainfall (itself driven largely by variation in the latitude of peak solar insolation and by the lagged variation in Atlantic ITCZ). The simulated rainfall changes appear to be biased in some months by the southward bias in the Atlantic ITCZ, including a possible overestimation of drying in March and June. In addition, the Atlantic ITCZ in HadGEM3 tends to shift too far in both the seasonal cycle (as reported in other models) and in inter‐annual variability. Excessive inter‐annual variability may arise because the model ITCZ is too close to the equator, combined with an increase in variability near the equator. Further understanding of what drives the variability in ITCZ latitude, and how that relates to ITCZ shifts under an AMOC shutdown, is suggested as a future research priority.

Intensified Impact of Winter Arctic Oscillation on Simultaneous Precipitation Over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia Since the Early 2000s

This study reveals an intensified impact of winter (November–February mean) Arctic Oscillation (AO) on simultaneous precipitation over the mid–high latitudes of Asia (MHA) since the early 2000s. The unstable relationship may be related to the changes in the tropospheric AO mode and the subtropical jet. Further analyses suggest that their changes may be attributable to the interdecadal changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. During 2002–2017, the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex is accompanied by intensified upward-propagating tropospheric planetary-scale waves anomalies. Subsequently, the stratospheric geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic high-latitudes propagate downward strongly, causing the changes in the tropospheric AO mode, that is, the positive height anomalies over the North Atlantic high-latitudes are stronger and extend southward, corresponding to the stronger and eastward extension of negative height anomalies over the North Atlantic mid-latitudes. Thus, the Rossby wave source anomalies over Baffin Bay and the Black Sea are strong, and correspondingly so too are their subsequently excited the Rossby waves anomalies. Meanwhile, the planetary-scale waves anomalies propagate weakly along the low-latitude waveguide, causing the intensified and southward shift of the subtropical jet. Therefore, the strong Rossby waves anomalies propagate eastward to the MHA. By contrast, during 1979–1999, the strong stratospheric polar vortex anomaly is accompanied by weak upward-propagating planetary-scale waves anomalies, resulting in weaker height anomalies over the North Atlantic mid–high latitudes. Consequently, the anomalous Rossby waves are weak. In addition, the subtropical jet weakens and shifts northward, which causes the Rossby waves anomalies to dominate over the North Atlantic, and thereby the impact of winter AO on simultaneous precipitation over the MHA is weak.

The Process of High-Frequency Intraseasonal Oscillation Associated with a Persistent Rainfall Event over South China

AbstractIn the present study, the moist static energy (MSE) budget associated with a persistent rainfall event that occurred over South China in late August 2018 (PR1808) was analyzed using ERA-Interim data. The results revealed that the PR1808 event was closely related to a 12–30-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), with a significant westward-propagating mode. The recharge of MSE occurred before ISO deep convection, and the MSE was discharged during and after the peak precipitation. This result indicates that the recharge–discharge cycle of MSE played an important role in regulating the high-frequency ISO (HF-ISO) process during the PR1808 event. However, the midlevel MSE tendency, rather than the low-level tendency, controlled the column-integrated MSE change in this case, and there was no low-level MSE tendency ahead of HF-ISO convection, which is different from previous studies, implying that shallow convection was not a key factor in this case. The recharge of MSE related to the midlevel MSE change mode was mainly attributed to zonal advection, while the forcing related to radiative heating (longwave and shortwave radiation) and heat fluxes (latent and sensible heat fluxes) contributed little to the change in MSE. Furthermore, for the zonal advection of MSE, the main contribution originated from the advection by the low-frequency zonal flow across the low-frequency MSE gradient, and interactions between high- (low-) frequency zonal flow and low- (high-) frequency MSE. In addition, the disturbances from higher latitudes enhanced the persistent rainfall in this case over South China through the southward shift of baroclinic vorticity.

Climate reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum from a simple cirque glacier in Fiordland, New Zealand

Mountain glacier records offer important constraints on the timing and magnitude of climate variability during the last glacial cycle. Existing moraine chronologies from the central Southern Alps indicate maximum ice extent was achieved during marine isotope stages 3–4, followed by repeated advances of similar, but gradually declining extent during marine isotope stage 2, until onset of the glacial termination. Questions remain over the precise role of climate in driving these changes, as most existing moraine chronologies come from large, complex former valley glacier systems, where non-climatic influences such as changing bed topography and proglacial lake formation may have influenced glacier length changes. Here we address this problem via a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology and equilibrium line altitude reconstruction from a cirque glacier situated in Fiordland, New Zealand. Our chronology shows moraine deposition at 32 ± 11 ka, 18.7 ± 0.2 ka, 18.1 ± 0.1 ka, and c. 17.2 ± 0.3 ka. The simple geometry of the former glacier supports the role of climate in driving a net decline of regional ice volume during marine isotope stages 3–2. Close spacing and good preservation of the 19–17 ka moraines permits 2D glacier reconstruction which suggests the equilibrium line altitude remained depressed by c.1130 m (equivalent to 5.8 ± 0.6 °C colder than present) during this interval. Onset of warming after 17.2 ± 0.2 ka is consistent with climate proxy evidence for a sustained southward shift in the southern westerly winds, which may have promoted deglaciation via shifting ocean currents and promoting increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Air-sea coupling shapes North American hydroclimate response to ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum

The Western U.S. is vulnerable to hydrological stress, and insights from past climate periods are helpful for providing historical benchmarks for future climate projections. Myriad evidence from coupled models and paleoclimatic proxies suggests a major reorganization of west coast hydroclimate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼17–25 ka), such that the Southwest U.S. was wetter than modern day and the Pacific Northwest was drier. Yet the fundamental mechanisms underlying these hydroclimatic shifts remain unclear. Here, we employ a suite of targeted model simulations to probe the influence of LGM Northern Hemisphere ice sheets on west coast atmospheric dynamics. Whereas previous modeling studies have suggested that the southward shift of LGM west coast precipitation was driven only by the mechanical steering of atmospheric circulation by elevated ice sheet topography, we find this to be an artifact of earlier simulations that neglected realistic air-sea interaction. Instead, our simulations indicate that ice sheet albedo induced a pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperatures, reinforced by ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, that shifted the large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as the latitudinal distribution of west coast precipitation southward during the LGM. Crucially, we find that atmosphere-ocean feedbacks that sustained this ice sheet albedo-induced temperature pattern in the LGM could drive similar hydroclimatic changes today.

Three-phase structure of the East Asia summer monsoon during Heinrich Stadial 4 recorded in Xianyun Cave, southeastern China

The Heinrich Stadial (HS) 4 event was the largest of the six HS events and occurred from 40.0 to 38.2 kyr BP (thousand years before present, where present = 1950 CE) recorded in Greenland ice cores. However, its structure, forcings, and related global hydroclimate variation remain poorly understood. Here, an 8-yr-resolved stalagmite δ18O record from Xianyun Cave, southeastern China, is used to reconstruct the multidecadal-to-millennial-scale changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 41.33 ± 0.09 to 37.04 ± 0.05 kyr BP. The Xianyun record shows a corresponding weak monsoon interval from 40.04 ± 0.07 to 37.76 ± 0.05 kyr BP during HS 4 and is the first direct evidence in the Asian monsoon realm to clearly reveal a three-phase EASM structure. The first phase began with a weakening monsoon from 40.04 ± 0.07 to 39.54 ± 0.06 kyr BP, associated with a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The second phase was a long weak monsoon, spanning 1.06 kyr from 39.54 ± 0.06 to 38.48 ± 0.05 kyr BP and corresponding to an ice-rafted debris event in the North Atlantic Ocean and an intense pluvial phase in Northeast (NE) Brazil, suggesting that the ITCZ lingered at its southernmost position during this interval. Following the end of this phase, EASM was gradually enhanced for 720 yrs through 37.76 ± 0.05 kyr BP. The feature expressed in the Xianyun record agrees with the variations in low-latitude climate signals recorded in the Northern Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) 17O-excess and anti-phase matches with dry-wet transition recorded in NE Brazilian stalagmites. These relations suggest multi-phased responses of tropical atmospheric/oceanic circulations to forcing from northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our findings offer essential evidence for understanding low- and high-latitude climate teleconnections and the relationship between the monsoon and the tropical hydrologic cycle.

Troposphere‐Mesosphere Coupling by Convectively Forced Gravity Waves During Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Season as Viewed by AIM/CIPS

AbstractA new data set consisting of Rayleigh Albedo Anomaly variance data resulting from measurements by the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size instrument on the Aeronomy for Ice in the Mesosphere satellite is introduced, and is used to illustrate the lower‐mesospheric (50–55 km) gravity wave (GW) response to tropospheric convection during Southern Hemisphere monsoon season (December‐February). The correspond to GWs with vertical wavelengths 15 km and horizontal wavelengths between about 23 and 600 km. It is shown that these scales encompass most of the convectively generated GW spectrum at 50–55 km altitude due to both plume overshoot and diabatic heating, and include those GWs most likely to impact the overlying ionosphere‐thermosphere‐mesosphere system. The GWs originate from convective sources associated with the African and South American land masses, the maritime continent/Australia, and the South Pacific Convergence Zone. The regions of enhanced convection are identified according to half‐hourly rainfall rate (RR) distributions from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. The GW exhibits spatial, inter‐monthly, and inter‐annual variabilities connected with RR and propagation conditions. A ∼ southward shift of longitudinal structures in with respect to RR longitudinal structures is interpreted in terms of wave focusing toward the middle atmosphere summer easterly jet core. For the South American Monsoon System, a linear regression analysis shows variability to be expressible in terms of upper‐stratosphere zonal wind speeds (correlation coefficient R = −0.91) with magnitude of RR playing a much lesser role (R = 0.16).

Effects of Suppressed Transient Eddies by the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractIt is known that the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can weaken the transient eddies (TEs) transported along the westerly jet stream. This study investigates the effects of the persistently suppressed TEs by the TP on the East Asian summer monsoon and the associated mechanisms using the NCAR Community Earth System Model. A nudging method is used to modify the suppression of the TEs without changing the steady dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the TP. The suppressed TEs by the TP weaken the East Asian westerly jet stream through the weakened poleward TE vorticity flux. On the one hand, the weakened jet stream leads to less (more) rainfall in northern (southern) East Asia by inducing anomalous moisture convergence, midtropospheric warm advection, and upper-level divergence, particularly in early summer when the eastward propagation of TE suppression by the TP is strong. On the other hand, the precipitation anomalies can shift the East Asian westerly jet stream southward and promote the moisture convergence in southern East Asia through latent heat release. Therefore, the persistent suppression of the TEs leads to a southward shift of the East Asian rain belt by a convective feedback, as it was previously found that the steady thermodynamic and dynamic forcings of the TP favored a northward shift of the rain belt. This study suggests that the anomalously weak TEs can lead to a rainfall change (more in the south, less in the north) over East Asia.

Smoother versus sharper Gulf Stream and Kuroshio sea surface temperature fronts: effects on cyclones and climatology

Abstract. The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions feature strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients that influence cyclone development and the storm track. Previous studies showed that smoothing the SSTs in either the North Atlantic or North Pacific yields a reduction in cyclone activity, surface heat fluxes, and precipitation, as well as a southward shift of the storm track and the upper-level jet. To what extent these changes are attributable to changes in individual cyclone behaviour, however, remains unclear. Comparing simulations with realistic and smoothed SSTs in the atmospheric general circulation model AFES, we find that the intensification of individual cyclones in the Gulf Stream or Kuroshio region is only marginally affected by reducing the SST gradient. In contrast, we observe considerable changes in the climatological mean state as well as a reduced cyclone activity in the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks that are shifted equatorward in both basins. The upper-level jet in the Atlantic also shifts equatorward, while the jet in the Pacific strengthens in its climatological position and extends further east. Surface heat fluxes, specific humidity, and precipitation also respond strongly to the smoothing of the SST, with a considerable decrease in their mean values on the warm side of the SST front. This decrease is more pronounced in the Gulf Stream than in the Kuroshio region, due to the larger decrease in SST along the Gulf Stream SST front. Considering the differences of the different variables occurring within/outside of a 750 km radius of any cyclone over their entire lifetime, we find that cyclones play only a secondary role in explaining the differences in the mean state between the smoothed and realistic SST experiments.

Summertime precipitation in Hokkaido and Kyushu, Japan in response to global warming

We analyzed a large ensemble dataset called the database for Policy Decision Making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which contains 60-km resolution atmospheric general circulation model output and 20-km resolution dynamical downscaling for the Japanese domain. The increase in moisture and precipitation, and their global warming response in June–July–August were described focusing on the differences between Hokkaido and Kyushu; Hokkaido is cool and dry and Kyushu is hot and humid in the current climate. The results suggested that the specific humidity increased almost following the Clausius Clapeyron relation, but the change in stationary circulation suppressed the precipitation increase, except for in western Kyushu. The + 4 K climate in Hokkaido would be as hot and humid as the present climate in Kyushu. The circulation change related to the southward shift of the jet stream and an eastward shift of the Bonin high weakened the moisture flux convergence via a stationary field over central Japan including eastern Kyushu. The transient eddy activity counteracted the increase in humidity, so that the moisture flux convergence and precipitation did not change much over Hokkaido. Because the contribution of tropical cyclones to the total precipitation was at most 10%, the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones did not explain the predicted change in precipitation.

Is There Interdecadal Variation in the South Asian High?

AbstractThe decadal intensification of the South Asian high (SAH) after the late 1970s, which is determined based on the geopotential height (H), is suspicious due to the lifting effect upon H caused by global warming. The updated reanalysis datasets ERA5 and JRA-55 indicate that the anticyclone in the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau is relatively weak during 1980–2018 compared to that during 1950–79. This decadal weakening of the SAH after 1979 can also be observed in the radiosonde observation data. Correspondingly, the SAH defined by eddy geopotential height (H′) reflects a consistent decadal weakening variation. The decadal weakening of SAH detected from H′ after the late 1970s matches with a decadal southward shift of the East Asian westerly jet, causing ascending motions over the Yangtze River valley and descending motions over North China. Moreover, the decadal weakening and westward shift of the SAH is accompanied with positive relative vorticity anomalies over the northwest Pacific in the upper troposphere, which implies a declining and eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a weakened East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Hence, the decadal weakening of the SAH after the late 1970s may contribute to the Yangtze River flooding/North China drought pattern through its connection with other circulation systems of EASM.

Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the decadal time scale. Although the NAT is forced by North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), it also has an effect on the atmosphere; for example, the early winter tripole SST signal can influence storm tracks in March. As the NAT not only changes the baroclinicity of the lower layer but also modifies the moisture being released into the atmosphere, we surmise that the NAT has an impact on moisture transport and atmospheric rivers in the decadal time scale. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, the decadal variations in Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the North Atlantic in boral winter in relation to NAT phases were studied. During the positive NAT phase, the positive SST in the central and western North Atlantic increases the humidity and causes an anticyclonic wind response, which enhances the northeastward transport of moisture. As a result, ARs tend to be longer and transport more moisture toward northwestern Europe. This causes enhanced extreme rain in the UK and Norway. During the negative NAT phase, the positive SST anomalies in the south and east of the North Atlantic provide more moisture, induce a southward shift of the ARs and enhance extreme rain in the Iberian Peninsula. The Gulf Stream (GS) front is stronger during the negative NAT phase, increasing the frequency of the atmospheric front and enlarging the rain rate in ARs.

Impacts of Variations in Caspian Sea Surface Area on Catchment‐Scale and Large‐Scale Climate

AbstractThe Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large‐scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hemisphere, for the first time with a fully coupled climate model. The Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) is used to simulate the climate of four scenarios: (a) larger than present CS area, (b) current area, (c) smaller than present area, and (d) no‐CS scenario. The results reveal large changes in the regional atmospheric water budget. Evaporation (e) over the sea increases with increasing area, while precipitation (P) increases over the south‐west CS with increasing area. P‐E over the CS catchment decreases as CS surface area increases, indicating a dominant negative lake‐evaporation feedback. A larger CS reduces summer surface air temperatures and increases winter temperatures. The impacts extend eastwards, where summer precipitation is enhanced over central Asia and the north‐western Pacific experiences warming with reduced winter sea ice. Our results also indicate weakening of the 500‐hPa troughs over the northern Pacific with larger CS area. We find a thermal response triggers a southward shift of the upper troposphere jet stream during summer. Our findings establish that changing CS area results in climate impacts of such scope that CS area variations should be incorporated into climate model simulations, including palaeo and future scenarios.

The North Equatorial Countercurrent East of the Dateline, Its Variations and Its Relationship to the El Niño Event

Using forty years (1978–2017) of Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ORAS4) dataset, the purpose of this study is to investigate the fluctuation of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) to the east of the dateline in relation to the presence of three kinds of El Niño events. From spring (MAM) through summer (JJA), we found that the NECC was stronger during the Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP El Niño) and the MIX El Niño than during the Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño). When it comes to winter (DJF), on the other hand, the NECC was stronger during the CP and MIX El Niño and weaker during the EP El Niño. This NECC variability was affected by the fluctuations of thermocline depth near the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, we also found that the seasonal southward shift of the NECC occurred between winter and spring, but the shift was absent during the CP and MIX El Niño events. This meridional shift was strongly affected by the local wind stress.

Late Miocene Onset of Tasman Leakage and Southern Hemisphere Supergyre Ushers in Near‐Modern Circulation

AbstractThis study provides a Miocene‐to‐recent history of Tasman Leakage (TL), driving surface‐to‐intermediate waters from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean. TL, in addition to Indonesian ThroughFlow (ITF), constitutes an important part of the Southern Hemisphere Supergyre. Here, we employ deep‐sea benthic δ13C timeseries from the southwestern Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans to identify the history of Tasman Leakage. The δ13C results combined with sedimentary evidence show that an inter‐ocean connection south of Australia existed from 7 Ma onward. A southward shift in Westerlies combined with a northward movement of Australia created the oceanic corridor necessary for Tasman Leakage (between Australia and the sub‐Antarctic Front) at this time. Furthermore, changes in the northern limb of the Supergyre (ITF) are evident in the sedimentary record on Broken Ridge from ∼3 to 2 Ma when Banda Sea intermediate waters started originating from the North Pacific.

Subantarctic Mode Water and its long-term change in CMIP6 models

AbstractThe Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is a major water mass in the South Indian and Pacific oceans and plays an important role in the ocean uptake and anthropogenic heat and carbon. The characteristics, formation, and long-term evolution of the SAMW are investigated in the “historical” and “SSP245” scenario simulations of the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Defined by the low potential vorticity, the simulated SAMW is consistently thinner, shallower, lighter, and warmer than in observations, due to biases in the winter mixed layer properties and spatial distribution. The biases are especially large in the South Pacific Ocean. The winter mixed layer bias can be attributed to unrealistic heat loss and stratification in the models. Nevertheless, the SAMW is presented better in the CMIP6 than CMIP5, regarding its volume, location, and physical characteristics. In warmer climate, the simulated SAMW in the South Indian Ocean consistently becomes lighter in density, with a reduced volume and a southward shift in the subduction region. The reduced heat loss, instead of the increased Ekman pumping induced by the poleward intensified westerly wind, dominates in the SAMW change. The winter mixed layer shoals in the northern outcrop region and the SAMW subduction shifts southward where the mixed layer remains deep. The projected reduction of the SAMW volume is likely to impact the heat and freshwater redistribution in the Southern Ocean.

The effect of climate change on habitat suitability and a distribution model of the Iranian fat-tailed gecko, Eublepharis angramainyu Anderson and Leviton, 1966 (Sauria: Eublepharidae) since the Last Interglacial to 2050

Surveying the role of climate changes on the species distributions in the past, present and future, and correlating these with changes in distribution ranges have attracted considerable research interest. The leopard geckos of the genus Eublepharis Gray, 1827 (family Eublepharidae), as a vicariate group, comprises six valid species distributed from Turkey through the Iranian Plateau to India, of which E. angramainyu, E. macularius and E. turcmenicus occur in Iran. In this study, we modelled the potential distribution areas for E. angramainyu and determined the suitable habitats in the past (the last interglacial [LIG] and mid-Holocene [MH]), present (1950–2000), and also predicted four scenarios in the future (2050) by using the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt). The obtained models indicated very good values of the area under curve (AUC): LIG = 0.996 ± 0.003, MH = 0.996 ± 0.004, contemporary period = 0.995 ± 0.004, and the future = 0.997 ± 0.002. Precipitation of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the distribution of E. angramainyu. As it seems, climatic changes have been responsible for a southward shift in distribution and suitable habitats of E. angramainyu from the LIG (~150,000–120,000 years ago) to the future. The representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario model of the future predicted a much more restricted distribution and less suitable habitats due to radiation of the forcing level which reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m² by mid-century and returns to 2.6 W/m² by 2100.

Effects of Whole SST Anomaly in the Tropical Indian Ocean on Summer rainfall Over Central Asia

The effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on summer rainfall over central Asia (CA) are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis circulation data, Hadley Centre SST data, and GPCC gridded precipitation data for 1971–2016. Results show that the SST anomalies over the whole tropical IO play important roles in modulating summer rainfall over southeast CA via the subtropical westerly jet. When the SSTs in the tropical IO are in positive phases, the south Asian monsoon is weakened, which reduces summer rainfall in the Indian monsoon regions corresponding to less release of latent heat. There is an anomalous anticyclone over the Indian Peninsula and an anomalous cyclone in the upper troposphere over CA, corresponding to a shift of the subtropical westerly jet farther south over CA. The southward shift of westerly jet would be responded to anomalous cyclone at 500 hPa over CA and water vapor transported into CA through two steps from the Arabian Sea, above both contribute to more summer rainfall over CA.