Southern Ocean Carbon Research Articles

The Southern Ocean carbon sink has been overestimated in the past three decades

Employing machine learning methods for mapping surface ocean pCO2 has reduced the uncertainty in estimating sea-air CO2 flux. However, a general discrepancy exists between the Southern Ocean carbon sinks derived from pCO2 products and those from biogeochemistry models. Here, by performing a boosting ensemble learning feed-forward neural networks method, we have identified an underestimation of the surface Southern Ocean pCO2 due to notably uneven density of pCO2 measurements between summer and winter, which resulted in about 16% overestimating of Southern Ocean carbon sink over the past three decades. In particular, the Southern Ocean carbon sink since 2010 was notably overestimated by approximately 29%. This overestimation can be mitigated by a winter correction in algorithms, with the average Southern Ocean carbon sink during 1992-2021 corrected to −0.87 PgC yr−1 from the original −1.01 PgC yr−1. Furthermore, the most notable underestimation of surface ocean pCO2 mainly occurred in regions south of 60°S and was hiding under ice cover. As the surface ocean pCO2 under sea ice coverage in the winter is much higher than the atmosphere, if sea ice melts completely, there could be a further reduction of about 0.14 PgC yr−1 in the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Author Correction: The role of biota in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

Author Correction: The role of biota in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean

The strength and variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is a significant source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. One barrier to reconciling observations and models is understanding how synoptic weather patterns modulate air-sea carbon exchange. Here, we identify and track storms using atmospheric sea level pressure fields from reanalysis data to assess the role that storms play in driving air-sea CO2 exchange. We examine the main drivers of CO2 fluxes under storm forcing and quantify their contribution to Southern Ocean annual air-sea CO2 fluxes. Our analysis relies on a forced ocean-ice simulation from the Community Earth System Model, as well as CO2 fluxes estimated from Biogeochemical Argo floats. We find that extratropical storms in the Southern Hemisphere induce CO2 outgassing, driven by CO2 disequilibrium. However, this effect is an order of magnitude larger in observations compared to the model and caused by different reasons. Despite large uncertainties in CO2 fluxes and storm statistics, observations suggest a pivotal role of storms in driving Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 outgassing that remains to be well represented in climate models, and needs to be further investigated in observations.

Projected poleward migration of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink region under high emissions

The Southern Ocean is a major region of ocean carbon uptake, but its future changes remain uncertain under climate change. Here we show the projected shift in the Southern Ocean CO2 sink using a suite of Earth System Models, revealing changes in the mechanism, position and seasonality of the carbon uptake. The region of dominant CO2 uptake shifts from the Subtropical to the Antarctic region under the high-emission scenario. The warming-driven sea-ice melt, increased ocean stratification, mixed layer shoaling, and a weaker vertical carbon gradient is projected to together reduce the winter de-gassing in the future, which will trigger the switch from mixing-driven outgassing to solubility-driven uptake in the Antarctic region during the winter season. The future Southern Ocean carbon sink will be poleward-shifted, operating in a hybrid mode between biologically-driven summertime and solubility-driven wintertime uptake with further amplification of biologically-driven uptake due to the increasing Revelle Factor.

Deep-living and diverse Antarctic seaweeds as potentially important contributors to global carbon fixation

Global models predict that Antarctica has little suitable habitat for macroalgae and that Antarctic macroalgae therefore make a negligible contribution to global carbon fixation. However, coastal surveys are rare at southern polar latitudes (beyond 71° S), and here we report diverse and abundant macroalgal assemblages in un-navigated coastal habitats of the Ross Sea from 71.5°–74.5° S. We found extensive macroalgal assemblages living at depths >70 m and specimens of crustose coralline algae as deep as 125 m. Using global light modelling and published photosynthetic rates we estimate that Antarctic macroalgae may contribute between 0.9–2.8 % of global macroalgal carbon fixation. Combined, this suggests that Antarctic macroalgae may be a greater contributor to global carbon fixation and possibly sequestration than previously thought. The vulnerability of these coastal environments to climate change, especially shifting sea ice extent and persistence, could influence Southern Ocean carbon fixation and rates of long-term sequestration.

Life strategy of Antarctic silverfish promote large carbon export in Terra Nova Bay, Ross Sea

Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarcticum is the most abundant pelagic fish in the High Antarctic shelf waters of the Southern Ocean, where it plays a pivotal role in the trophic web as the major link between lower and higher trophic levels. Despite the ecological importance of this species, knowledge about its role in the biogeochemical cycle is poor. We determine the seasonal contribution of Antarctic silverfish to carbon flux in terms of faeces and eggs, from samples collected in the Ross Sea. We find that eggs and faeces production generate a flux accounting for 41% of annual POC flux and that the variability of this flux is modulated by spawning strategy. This study shows the important role of this organism as a vector for carbon flux. Since Antarctic silverfish are strongly dependent on sea-ice, they might be especially sensitive to climatic changes. Our results suggest that a potential decrease in the biomass of this organism is likely to impact marine biogeochemical cycles, and this should be factored in when assessing Southern Ocean carbon budget.

The role of biota in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

The role of biota in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

Millennial‐Scale Carbon Flux Variability in the Subantarctic Pacific During Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57–29 ka)

AbstractAntarctic ice cores reveal a glacial climate state during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS‐3; 57–29 ka) punctuated by millennial‐scale warming events and pulses of CO2. This study further explores how changes in Southern Ocean carbon cycling contributed to these millennial‐scale fluctuations in climate. Evidence from South Atlantic sediment cores suggests that warming events were associated with decreased dust‐borne iron flux, reduced export production, and increased upwelling from the deep Southern Ocean (SO). These processes are considered to have contributed to rising atmospheric CO2 during periods of rapid warming. Here we investigate whether the same processes occurred in the southwest Pacific sector of the SO at TAN1106‐28. We show that reduced New Zealand glaciation and localized iron limitation in the southwest Pacific led to reduced export production during millennial‐scale warming events. Decreases in foraminifera‐bound δ15N during all MIS‐3 warming events may reflect increased nutrient supply by upwelling. Increased calcium carbonate flux during MIS‐3 warming events likely reflects coccolithophore production in response to sea surface temperatures, which, would increase carbonate counter pump strength and reduce CO2 sequestration. Concomitant decreases in bottom water oxygen, inferred from redox‐sensitive U and Mn sediment concentrations, and increases in the 14C age of deep waters, suggest that old, nutrient‐rich waters influenced southwest Pacific middepth waters during warming events. This signature may reflect an expansion of Pacific Deep Water into the SO during warming. Taken together, our multi‐proxy data set reveals that the southwest subantarctic Pacific acted as a source of CO2 during millennial‐scale warming events of MIS‐3.

Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years.

Much of our understanding of Cenozoic climate is based on the record of δ18O measured in benthic foraminifera. However, this measurement reflects a combined signal of global temperature and sea level, thus preventing a clear understanding of the interactions and feedbacks of the climate system in causing global temperature change. Our new reconstruction of temperature change over the past 4.5 million years includes two phases of long-term cooling, with the second phase of accelerated cooling during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.5 to 0.9 million years ago) being accompanied by a transition from dominant 41,000-year low-amplitude periodicity to dominant 100,000-year high-amplitude periodicity. Changes in the rates of long-term cooling and variability are consistent with changes in the carbon cycle driven initially by geologic processes, followed by additional changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Lipid composition, caloric content, and novel oxidation products from microbial communities within seasonal pack ice cores

Sea ice is a critical feature of polar environments with importance for coastal ecosystems. Along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), climate change is causing decreases in seasonal sea ice duration and extent. Organic carbon within sea ice is an important aspect of southern ocean carbon cycling but less studied than water column or sedimentary carbon reservoirs. Though conditions within sea ice can be extreme, phytoplankton are able to flourish and serve as a key food source for higher trophic levels, especially in the spring and fall. A portion of this sea ice phytoplankton biomass is composed of lipids, which are both calorically dense and useful as tracers of biological processes within the sea ice. To better understand both the trophic value and the diversity of lipids present within sea ice we employed high-resolution accurate-mass mass spectrometry to analyze ice core samples from six sites collected along the peninsula in November 2018. Using untargeted methods we annotated 1,173 intact lipid species across 14 classes of intact polar lipids, triacylglycerols, and pigments. We compared lipids’ physical distribution within sea ice cores and found they are highly geographically and physically heterogenous within sites. Ratios between intact polar lipid classes show little signs of phytoplankton nutrient stress; a finding consistent with internally nutrient replete sea ice brines. We found key differences in the composition between pack ice versus fast ice and observed chlorophyll a to be inconsistently correlated with triacylglycerol content. We determined the mean caloric content of lipids within pack ice (4.45 ± 3.47 kJ m−2) and found that caloric densities from the lipids alone were in the range of total water column energy content. Lastly, we show evidence of fatty acid hydroxy fatty acid triacylglycerols within the ice matrix and discuss possible biochemical sources of these novel biomarkers in an ocean system. These results shed light on the chemical diversity of a dynamic and ecosystem relevant carbon pool.

A Circum‐Antarctic Plankton Isoscape: Carbon Export Potential Across the Summertime Southern Ocean

AbstractThe Southern Ocean accounts for ∼30% of the ocean's CO2 sink, partly due to its biological pump that transfers surface‐produced organic carbon to deeper waters. To estimate large‐scale Southern Ocean carbon export potential and characterize its drivers, we measured the carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of surface suspended particulate matter (δ13CSPM, δ15NSPM) for samples collected in summer 2016/2017 during the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (364 stations). Concurrent measurements of phytoplankton community composition revealed the dominance of large diatoms in the Antarctic and nano‐phytoplankton (mainly haptophytes) in open Subantarctic waters. As expected, δ13CSPM was strongly dependent on pCO2, with local deviations in this relationship explained by phytoplankton community dynamics. δ15NSPM reflected the nitrogen sources consumed by phytoplankton, with higher inferred nitrate (versus recycled ammonium) dependence generally coinciding with higher micro‐phytoplankton abundances. Using δ15NSPM and a two‐endmember isotope mixing model, we quantified the extent of nitrate‐ versus ammonium‐supported growth, which yields a measure of carbon export potential. We estimate that across the Southern Ocean, 41 ± 29% of the surface‐produced organic carbon was potentially exported below the seasonal mixed layer during the growth season, with maximum export potential (50%–99%) occurring in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's southern Boundary Zone and near the (Sub)Antarctic islands, reaching a minimum in the Subtropical Zone (<33%). Alongside iron, phytoplankton community composition emerged as an important driver of the Southern Ocean's biological pump, with large diatoms dominating regions characterized by high nitrate dependence and elevated carbon export potential and smaller, mainly non‐diatom taxa proliferating in waters where recycled ammonium supported most productivity.

Transport of Anthropogenic Carbon From the Antarctic Shelf to Deep Southern Ocean Triggers Acidification

AbstractFlow of dense shelf water provide an efficient mechanism for pumping CO2 to the deep ocean along the continental shelf slope, particularly around the Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation areas where much of the global bottom water is formed. However, the contribution of the formation of AABW to sequestering anthropogenic carbon (Cant) and its consequences remain unclear. Here, we show prominent transport of Cant (25.0 ± 4.7 Tg C yr−1) into the deep ocean (>2,000 m) in four AABW formation regions around Antarctica based on an integrated observational data set (1974–2018). This maintains a lower Cant in the upper waters than that of other open oceans to sustain a stronger CO2 uptake capacity (16.9 ± 3.8 Tg C yr−1). Nevertheless, the accumulation of Cant can further trigger acidification of AABW at a rate of −0.0006 ± 0.0001 pH unit yr−1. Our findings elucidate the prominent role of AABW in controlling the Southern Ocean carbon uptake and storage to mitigate climate change, whereas its side effects (e.g., acidification) could also spread to other ocean basins via the global ocean conveyor belt.

The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage

AbstractWe assess the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO2 with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1) and pCO2‐observation‐based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present‐day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO2, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO2‐products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO2 trends in GOBMs and pCO2‐products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO2 was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non‐thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of Cant points to an underestimate of Cant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.

The Southern Ocean carbon and climate observations and modeling (SOCCOM) project: A review

The Southern Ocean serves as the primary gateway through which the intermediate, deep, and bottom waters of the ocean interact with the surface ocean (and thus the atmosphere), and it has a profound influence on the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon and heat as well as nutrient resupply from the abyss to the surface. Yet it has been the least observed and understood region of the world ocean. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project was implemented in 2014 with a goal to help remedy this deficit in observations and understanding. The SOCCOM project is based on two major advances that have the potential to transform understanding of the Southern Ocean. The first is the development of new biogeochemical sensors mounted on autonomous profiling floats that allow sampling of ocean biogeochemistry in 3-dimensional space. Floats may detect processes with a temporal resolution that ranges from hours to years. The second is that the climate modeling community finally has the computational resources and physical understanding to develop fully coupled climate models that can represent crucial, mesoscale processes in the Southern Ocean, as well as corresponding models that assimilate observations to produce a state estimate. The observational component, based on deployment of profiling floats with oxygen, nitrate, pH and bio-optical sensors, is generating vast amounts of new biogeochemical data that provide a year-round view of the Southern Ocean from the surface to 2000 m. The modeling effort is applying these observations and enhancing our understanding of the current ocean, and reducing uncertainty in projections of future carbon and nutrient cycles and climate. After nine years of operation, including a project renewal in the sixth year, the SOCCOM project has deployed more than 260 profiling floats. These floats have collected over 27,000 vertical profiles throughout the Southern Ocean. A data-assimilating biogeochemical state estimate model has been implemented. Here, the design of the SOCCOM project is reviewed and the scientific results that have been obtained are described. The project’s capability to help meet the observing system priorities outlined for a notional UN Decade for Ocean Sciences Southern Ocean observing system is assessed.

Using Existing Argo Trajectories to Statistically Predict Future Float Positions with a Transition Matrix

Abstract The Argo array provides nearly 4000 temperature and salinity profiles of the top 2000 m of the ocean every 10 days. Still, Argo floats will never be able to measure the ocean at all times, everywhere. Optimized Argo float distributions should match the spatial and temporal variability of the many societally important ocean features that they observe. Determining these distributions is challenging because float advection is difficult to predict. Using no external models, transition matrices based on existing Argo trajectories provide statistical inferences about Argo float motion. We use the 24 years of Argo locations to construct an optimal transition matrix that minimizes estimation bias and uncertainty. The optimal array is determined to have a 2° × 2° spatial resolution with a 90-day time step. We then use the transition matrix to predict the probability of future float locations of the core Argo array, the Global Biogeochemical Array, and the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) array. A comparison of transition matrices derived from floats using Argos system and Iridium communication methods shows the impact of surface displacements, which is most apparent near the equator. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of transition matrices for validating models by comparing the matrix derived from Argo floats with that derived from a particle release experiment in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE).

Subantarctic pCO2 estimated from a biogeochemical float: comparison with moored observations reinforces the importance of spatial and temporal variability

Understanding the size and future changes of natural ocean carbon sinks is critical for the projection of atmospheric CO2 levels. The magnitude of the Southern Ocean carbon flux has varied significantly over past decades but mechanisms behind this variability are still under debate. While high accuracy observations, e.g. from ships and moored platforms, are important to improve models they are limited through space and time. Observations from autonomous platforms with emerging biogeochemical capabilities, e.g. profiling floats, provide greater spatial and temporal coverage. However, the absolute accuracy of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) derived from float pH sensors is not well constrained. Here we capitalize on data collected for over a year by a biogeochemical Argo float near the Southern Ocean Time Series observatory to evaluate the accuracy of pCO2 estimates from floats beyond the initial in water comparisons at deployment. A latitudinal gradient of increasing pCO2 southward and spatial variability contributed to observed discrepancies. Comparisons between float estimated pCO2 and mooring observations were therefore restricted by temperature and potential density criteria (~ 7 µatm difference) and distance (1° latitude and longitude, ~ 11 µatm difference). By utilizing high quality moored and shipboard underway pCO2 observations, and estimates from CTD casts, we therefore found that over a year, differences in pCO2 between platforms were within tolerable uncertainties. Continued validation efforts, using measurements with known and sufficient accuracy, are vital in the continued assessment of float-based pCO2 estimates, especially in a highly dynamic region such as the subantarctic zone of the Southern Ocean.

Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities.

Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities.

Southern ocean carbon and heat impact on climate.

The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea-ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Southern Ocean phytoplankton dynamics and carbon export: insights from a seasonal cycle approach.

Quantifying the strength and efficiency of the Southern Ocean biological carbon pump (BCP) and its response to predicted changes in the Earth's climate is fundamental to our ability to predict long-term changes in the global carbon cycle and, by extension, the impact of continued anthropogenic perturbation of atmospheric CO2. There is little agreement, however, in climate model projections of the sensitivity of the Southern Ocean BCP to climate change, with a lack of consensus in even the direction of predicted change, highlighting a gap in our understanding of a major planetary carbon flux. In this review, we summarize relevant research that highlights the important role of fine-scale dynamics (both temporal and spatial) that link physical forcing mechanisms to biogeochemical responses that impact the characteristics of the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton and by extension the BCP. This approach highlights the potential for integrating autonomous and remote sensing observations of fine scale dynamics to derive regionally optimized biogeochemical parameterizations for Southern Ocean models. Ongoing development in both the observational and modelling fields will generate new insights into Southern Ocean ecosystem function for improved predictions of the sensitivity of the Southern Ocean BCP to climate change. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Finale: impact of the ORCHESTRA/ENCORE programmes on Southern Ocean heat and carbon understanding.

The 5-year Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) programme and its 1-year extension ENCORE (ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension) was an approximately 11-million-pound programme involving seven UK research centres that finished in March 2022. The project sought to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the exchange, storage and export of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. It achieved this through a series of milestone observational campaigns in combination with model development and analysis. Twelve cruises in the Weddell Sea and South Atlantic were undertaken, along with mooring, glider and profiler deployments and aircraft missions, all contributing to measurements of internal ocean and air-sea heat and carbon fluxes. Numerous forward and adjoint numerical experiments were developed and supported by the analysis of coupled climate models. The programme has resulted in over 100 peer-reviewed publications to date as well as significant impacts on climate assessments and policy and science coordination groups. Here, we summarize the research highlights of the programme and assess the progress achieved by ORCHESTRA/ENCORE and the questions it raises for the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.