As a result of rapid population growth, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian entity are experiencing a worsening water shortage, which, unless properly addressed., threatens to cripple their future development. Thirty-year projections of water demand indicate that even if all marginal water resources were to be effectively utilized and conservation measures fully implemented, chronic shortages will be deferred only 10–5 years. Conservation by restructuring sectoral water use through economic policy is impeded by the ideological primacy of agriculture, commitment to food self-sufficiency, and prospects of social and political destabilization. Importation of water by short land conveyances can provide only near-term solutions, while most long-distance, inter-basinal transfers are impractical because of a combination of economic, political and water rights issues. Marine conveyance, though attractive on paper, is as yet an unproven concept. Desalination of Mediterranean or Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba) seawater will satisfy future water demands and guarantee security of supply through joint management. The latest notions of “Two-Seas” (Mediterranean Sea-Dead Sea and Red Sea-Dead Sea) desalination schemes envision fueling by hydropower and/or solar energy, the co-generation of electricity, and aquacultural and tourist spin-offs. An alternative scheme proposes a jointly-managed Israeli-Egyptian (and possibly Palestinian) plant, to be located on the southern Mediterranean coast, that would be powered either by coal or by gas piped from the Suez fields. This study explores the relative merits of the proposed desalination schemes. The estimated costs of producing desalined seawater are about two to three times the average cost of water from conventional sources. However, fossil and renewable energy cost trends, introduction of innovative power generating technologies, and economies of size may all combine to reduce desalination costs 15–25% by the beginning of the next decade. The predicted higher costs of desalinated seawater will limit its use to satisfy domestic needs and to raising high value-added crops. Massive desalination would also facilitate the redistribution of disputed water resources, boost the regional industrial capacity by co-generating clean energy, and expand the recreational potential of the region. The regional cooperation necessitated by the need to pool financial resources and ensure optimal water allocation between Israel and some of its neighbors heralds the potential of making water in this troubled area of the Middle East a catalyst for peace, rather than a subject of protracted conflict.
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