Southern Kuril Research Articles

Sedimentary development of Holocene Hashirikotan barrier spits controlled by crustal movement due to southern Kuril subduction.

Sedimentary development of Holocene Hashirikotan barrier spits controlled by crustal movement due to southern Kuril subduction.

Development and Research of Electric Supply Structure of Remote Populated Areas by Diesel Power Plants

This paper analyses electric power system of diesel power plants. In this paper proposed the solutions for construction of new diesel power plant and its connection to existing power system. Russia is the largest country in the world in terms of territories using decentralized power. These include about 70% of the country area, with a population variously estimated from 10 to 20 million people. These areas are primarily located in the cold or even severe climate, e.g. Siberia, the Far East, and the Far North. The areas with decentralized electricity supply traditionally use instal- lations of small power, i.e. small power plants operating within a certain autonomous power network supplying energy for one or more neighboring communities. The basic fuel for the small-scale power plant in Russia is the diesel, the total amount of which exceeds 47 thousand, and the installed capacity reaches 15 million kilowatts. Electric power system of diesel power plants (DPP) South provides electricity to urban village Kurilsk South, located on a peninsula Kunashir Island (South Kuril Islands) with a population of approximately 6,500 people. Block diagram of the energy complex DPP Southern Kurils, is shown on Figure 1.

Eolian dust input to the Subarctic North Pacific

Eolian dust is a significant source of iron and other nutrients that are essential for the health of marine ecosystems and potentially a controlling factor of the high nutrient-low chlorophyll status of the Subarctic North Pacific. We map the spatial distribution of dust input using three different geochemical tracers of eolian dust, 4He, 232Th and rare earth elements, in combination with grain size distribution data, from a set of core-top sediments covering the entire Subarctic North Pacific. Using the suite of geochemical proxies to fingerprint different lithogenic components, we deconvolve eolian dust input from other lithogenic inputs such as volcanic ash, ice-rafted debris, riverine and hemipelagic input. While the open ocean sites far away from the volcanic arcs are dominantly composed of pure eolian dust, lithogenic components other than eolian dust play a more crucial role along the arcs. In sites dominated by dust, eolian dust input appears to be characterized by a nearly uniform grain size mode at ∼4 μm.Applying the 230Th-normalization technique, our proxies yield a consistent pattern of uniform dust fluxes of 1–2 g/m2/yr across the Subarctic North Pacific. Elevated eolian dust fluxes of 2–4 g/m2/yr characterize the westernmost region off Japan and the southern Kurile Islands south of 45° N and west of 165° E along the main pathway of the westerly winds. The core-top based dust flux reconstruction is consistent with recent estimates based on dissolved thorium isotope concentrations in seawater from the Subarctic North Pacific. The dust flux pattern compares well with state-of-the-art dust model predictions in the western and central Subarctic North Pacific, but we find that dust fluxes are higher than modeled fluxes by 0.5–1 g/m2/yr in the northwest, northeast and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. Our results provide an important benchmark for biogeochemical models and a robust approach for downcore studies testing dust-induced iron fertilization of past changes in biological productivity in the Subarctic North Pacific.

At-sea Occurrence and Historical Breeding of the Long-billed Murrelet(Brachyramphus perdix)in the Iburi Region, Hokkaido, Japan

The Long-billed Murrelet (Brachyramphus perdix) was previously considered to breed in Hokkaido, Japan, but the single 1961 historical nest record was recently found to be invalid, and small numbers observed during at-sea surveys off northeastern Hokkaido in 1996–2001 did not suggest breeding. In the Iburi Region of southern Hokkaido, small numbers of Long-billed Murrelets were observed at sea in May 2010 (n = 8) and May 2011 (n = 4), reflecting either local breeding, a stopover site during migration, or non-breeding individuals south of the breeding range during the breeding season. Single Long-billed Murrelets also were observed in October and December 2011, representing movements after the pre-basic molt. A historical record of a juvenile found in the forest about 20 km inland near the Chitose River in either 1913 or 1915 provides evidence of historical breeding in the Iburi Region and the best evidence so far of breeding in Japan, although breeding also may occur in the nearby southern Kuril Islands. At-sea and forest surveys are needed to better establish the status of and help conserve this declining species in the Iburi Region and other parts of Hokkaido.

The formation of the Lycodinae fauna (Perciformes: Zoarcidae) of the Sea of Japan

The subfamily Lycodinae is represented in the Sea of Japan by two genera (Lycodes and Petroschmidtia) and seven species (Lycodes japonicus, L. nakamurae, L. raridens, L. tanakae, L. teraoi, L. yamatoi, and Petroschmidtia toyamensis), which are widely distributed on the shelf and upper continental slope. Based on the geographic and bathymetric distribution of eelpouts of the Sea of Japan and adjacent waters, two groups of closely related species with different types of distribution ranges were distinguished. The first group includes pairs of species that live primarily on the continental slope and are completely isolated in the Sea of Japan or in the Sea of Okhotsk. The second group is comprised of upper interzonal species of the Sea of Japan that are found on the continental slope and shelf, as well as in the southern Sea of Okhotsk from Terpeniya Bay to the southern Kuril Islands. Their related species in the Sea of Okhotsk are mostly found to the north of the Terpeniya Bay. The study of the eelpout distribution and the data on the geological history and paleoclimate of the Far East show that the Lycodinae fauna of the Sea of Japan was formed from North Pacific eelpout-like fishes during the isolation of the sea in the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene, which was concomitant with the general cooling of the Earth’s climate. During the Pleistocene interglacials, the eelpout migrations were unidirectional, from the Sea of Japan to the southern Sea of Okhotsk. The reconstruction of the formation of the Sea of Japan Lycodinae fauna suggests that the related taxa from the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk are separate species, while the northern and southern forms of species from the Sea of Japan (Lycodes yamatoi and L. teraoi) are no more than subspecies.

Seismic heterogeneity and anisotropy of the southern Kuril arc: insight into megathrust earthquakes

Seismic heterogeneity and anisotropy of the southern Kuril arc: insight into megathrust earthquakes

Molecular Phylogeography of the Brown Bear (Ursus arctos) in Northeastern Asia Based on Analyses of Complete Mitochondrial DNA Sequences

To further elucidate the migration history of the brown bears (Ursus arctos) on Hokkaido Island, Japan, we analyzed the complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences of 35 brown bears from Hokkaido, the southern Kuril Islands (Etorofu and Kunashiri), Sakhalin Island, and the Eurasian Continent (continental Russia, Bulgaria, and Tibet), and those of four polar bears. Based on these sequences, we reconstructed the maternal phylogeny of the brown bear and estimated divergence times to investigate the timing of brown bear migrations, especially in northeastern Eurasia. Our gene tree showed the mtDNA haplotypes of all 73 brown and polar bears to be divided into eight divergent lineages. The brown bear on Hokkaido was divided into three lineages (central, eastern, and southern). The Sakhalin brown bear grouped with eastern European and western Alaskan brown bears. Etorofu and Kunashiri brown bears were closely related to eastern Hokkaido brown bears and could have diverged from the eastern Hokkaido lineage after formation of the channel between Hokkaido and the southern Kuril Islands. Tibetan brown bears diverged early in the eastern lineage. Southern Hokkaido brown bears were closely related to North American brown bears.

The Soviet Factor in U.S.-Japanese Defense Cooperation, 1978–1985

In the crucial period from 1978 to 1975, Japan jettisoned its “omnidirectional” foreign policy and embraced a closer and more integrated defense alliance with the United States. Concern about the Soviet threat was the chief motive for this shift. The deployment of Soviet troops in the Northern Territories (Southern Kuriles), the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the deployment of Soviet Backfire bombers and SS-20 nuclear missiles in the Far East all provided impetus toward closer U.S.-Japanese defense cooperation. As Japan closely aligned its defense policy with the United States, Soviet-Japanese relations correspondingly deteriorated. Normal channels of communication were broken off. As the Japanese government elevated the Northern Territories issue to the forefront of Soviet-Japanese relations, Soviet criticism of Japan escalated. By the time Mikhail Gorbachev took power in 1985, Soviet-Japanese relations had sunk to their lowest point.

Spatial and temporal variability of the Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) distribution in the northwestern Pacific Ocean

Abstract Tseng, C-T., Su, N-J., Sun, C-L., Punt, A. E., Yeh, S-Z., Liu, D-C., and Su, W-C. 2013. Spatial and temporal variability of the Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) distribution in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 991–999. Logbook data for the Taiwanese Pacific saury fishery and multi-sensor satellite images for 2006–2010 were used to characterize the habitat of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) in the northwestern Pacific (NWP). An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) approach identified that high cpue (catch per unit of effort) of Pacific saury occurred when sea surface temperature (SST) ranged from 14 to 16°C, chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl a) ranged from 0.4 to 0.6 mg m−3, and net primary production (NPP) ranged from 600 to 800 mg C m−2 d−1. A generalized additive model (GAM) and spatial non-stationary geographically weighted regression (GWR) were applied to predict the habitats of Pacific saury in the NWP. The spatial distributions of Pacific saury in the NWP estimated using the two approaches were similar and matched the nominal cpue distributions and those inferred from preferred habitat ranges based on ECDF. The density of Pacific saury is higher in coastal waters close to the island of Hokkaido and near the southern Kuril Islands than in the open sea. SST, Chl a, and NPP were substantially higher in the fishing grounds for Pacific saury during the main fishing season (September and October), corresponding to a high cpue for Pacific saury (23.1 t fishing day−1). The GAM explained more variability in spatial distribution (35.7%) than GWR (20.5%) VGPM (Vertically Generalized Production Model). Results derived from this study could improve our understanding of Pacific saury habitat distributions, which could be used to forecast fishing grounds and to develop fishery management advice based on oceanographic conditions that might be impacted by climate change.

Russia–Japan Relations: Politico-strategic Importance of the Disputed Southern Kurile Islands/Northern Territories

The dispute over the sovereignty of the Southern Kuriles as known to the Russians and Northern Territories as termed by the Japanese has been the main hurdle in the full blown development of relations between the two countries. The settlement of the territorial dispute is linked to the signing of the peace treaty between the two. The geo-strategic/political developments in the Asia Pacific region in the recent years have impacted the negotiations on the disputed territories. The Russian President Medvedev’s visit to the Kunashiri Island on 1 November 2010 and the following military build-up by Russia on these territories have changed the security scenario of North-east Asia. The Russian stance on the issue has hardened which is attributed to its resurgence and assertiveness in Asia and elsewhere consequent to the flush of revenue from oil and natural gas exports. Russians do not seem to be in a mood to even negotiate on the two small islands of Shikotan and Habomai, while the Japanese position has been changing over the years and now they are insisting on the return of all the four islands. However, the trade and investment relations between the two are steadily growing as the Japanese need Russian oil and natural gas and the Russians are keen for Japanese investment and technology. The Russians in the meantime have developed strong economic ties with China and South Korea which indirectly has a bearing on the state of relations between Russia and Japan. A compromise between the two can be of immense benefit to both the countries. The development of the relations to its full potential would be possible only after the resolution of the territorial dispute.

Lagrangian coherent structures in the ocean favorable for fishery

Regions rich in nutrients with food grounds for zooplankton, the main feeding resource of pelagic fish, are locations of fishing grounds. Favorable condi� tions are usually formed in the subarctic frontal zones at the boundaries between cold and warm currents and in the periphery of mesoscale eddies. These are regions with high mechanical energy and intense horizontal mixing, in which phytoplankton, the food for zoop� lankton, can concentrate. Numerous investigations in different seas and oceans confirm that fronts and eddies are formations in which favorable conditions are formed for reproduction of plankton and growth of fish [1–3]. In the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean east of Hokkaido Island (Japan) and the South� ern Kuril Islands, the waters of the cold subarctic Oyashio Current mix with the waters of the warm Kuroshio Current. Owing to the high concentration of nutrients in the cold waters of the Oyashio and high tides facilitating reproduction of phytoplankton in the surface waters, this region is known as one of the rich� est fishing locations in the world. The objective of this work is to distinguish the Lagrangian coherent structures in the ocean at the fronts (boundaries between the waters of different ori� gins), along which favorable conditions for fishery are formed. In the language of the theory of dynamic sys� tems, these structures are called unstable manifolds of hyperbolic points of nonstationary flow. The geo� strophic velocity field was calculated from the data of satellite altimetry. By calculating the displacements D of a large number of particles during a specific time period, one can plot a synoptic chart of this value for any region in which the fronts and the curves of the local minimum of D are clearly pronounced that visu� alize the strongest unstable manifolds in the region. It is shown in this paper that the vessels with the maximum catches of saury in the fall of 2002 and 2004 were located mainly along the unstable manifold depicting the Oyashio front at that period of time. We solve the equation for the advection of a passive admixture

Hydroacoustic observations of weak earthquakes in shallow waters of the Southern Kuril Islands

Results of hydroacoustic observations of signals from weak earthquakes in natural conditions in the region of the Southern Kuril Islands are presented. Some earthquakes were registered by the the Yuzhno-Kurilsk Seismic Station, other were only recorded by hydrophone stations. The observations were specific as seismic signals were recorded in shallow waters, i.e. in high noise level conditions. Hydrophones were installed in Lake Lagunnoe (Kunashir) and Khromovaya Bay (Shikotan). Our analysis of hydroacoustic records received from the hydrophone stations revealed no evident precursory response of the geological medium to weak distant events. This means that neither before the period of earthquake preparation nor during the earthquake preparation period, any geoacoustic emission was not detected. It is shown that despite the unfavourable noise level conditions, even distant weak earthquakes can be confidently registered by hydrophone stations, and pending application of proper signal processing techniques, it can be possible to determine arrival times of seismic waves and to measure parameters of seismic waves. It is also established that the frequency spectrum of acoustic signals from the weak earthquakes recordable by the hydrophone stations is continuous and of noise type in the frequency range up to 90–100 Hz. It is revealed that in some cases, weak earthquakes and microearthquakes may be forerun by low frequency signals.

Coastal Sedimentation Associated with the Tohoku Tsunami of 11 March 2011 in South Kuril Islands, NW Pacific Ocean

Sediment deposited by the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 in the Southern Kurils (Kunashir, Shikotan, Zeleniy, Yuri, Tanfiliev islands) was radically different from sedimentation during local strong storms and from tsunamis with larger runup at the same location. Sediments from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami were surveyed in the field, immediately and 6 months after the event, and analyzed in the laboratory for sediment granulometry, benthos Foraminifa assemblages, and diatom algae. Run-up elevation and inundation distance were calculated from the wrackline (accumulations of driftwood, woody debris, grass, and seaweed) marking the distal edge of tsunami inundation. Run-up of the tsunami was 5 m at maximum, and 3–4 m on average. Maximum distance of inundation was recorded in river mouths (up to 630 m), but was generally in the range of 50–80 m. Although similar to the local strong storms in runup height, the tsunami generally did not erode the coast, nor leave a deposit. However, deposits uncharacteristic of tsunami, described as brown aleuropelitic (silty and clayey) mud rich in organic matter, were found in closed bays facing the South Kuril Strait. These closed bays were covered with sea ice at the time of tsunami. As the tsunami waves broke the ice, the ice floes enhanced the bottom erosion on shoals and destruction of low-lying coastal peatland even at modest ranges of runup. In the muddy tsunami deposits, silt comprised up to 64 % and clay up to 41.5 %. The Foraminifera assemblages displayed features characteristic of benthic microfauna in the near-shore zone. Deep-sea diatoms recovered from tsunami deposits in two closely situated bays, namely Krabovaya and Otradnaya bays, had different requirements for environmental temperature, suggesting these different diatoms were brought to the bays by the tsunami wave entraining various water masses when skirting the island from the north and from the south.

Tracking slabs beneath northwestern Pacific subduction zones

This study uses the amplitudes of bottom-side reflected shear waves to constrain the morphology and dynamics of subducted oceanic lithosphere beneath northwestern Pacific subduction zones. Across Honshu arc, the 410- and 660-km seismic discontinuities are detected at the respective depths of 395±5 and 685±5km within the Wadati–Benioff zone. Their topographies are negatively correlated along slab dip, showing the dominant effect of temperature on the olivine phase changes within the upper mantle transition zone. The base of the upper mantle shows broad depressions as well as localized zones of shallow/average depths beneath Korea and northeast China. The 15+km peak-to-peak topography west of the Wadati–Benioff zones suggests that the stagnant part of the subducted Pacific plate is not as flat as previously suggested. Eastward slab ‘pile-up’ is also possible at the base of the upper mantle. Across southern Kuril arc, the shear wave reflection coefficients of major olivine phase boundaries fall below 5% within the Wadati–Benioff zone. The apparent reflection gaps and the spatial connection between a strong reflector at ~900km depth may imply 1) possible compositional variations at the top and bottom of the transition zone and 2) substantial mass/heat flux across the 660-km seismic discontinuity. We also identify strong reflectors within the subducted oceanic lithosphere at mid transition zone depths. The depths and strengths of these reflectors are highly variable between Honshu and southern Kuril islands.

Peace in Northeast Asia: Resolving Japan's Territorial and Maritime Disputes with China, Korea and the Russian Federation (review)

Reviewed by: Peace in Northeast Asia: Resolving Japan's Territorial and Maritime Disputes with China, Korea and the Russian Federation Kimie Hara (bio) Peace in Northeast Asia: Resolving Japan’s Territorial and Maritime Disputes with China, Korea and the Russian Federation. Edited by Thomas J. Schoenbaum. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2008. viii, 138 pages. $85.00, cloth and E-book. Peace in Northeast Asia is a collection of essays on Japan’s territorial and maritime border disputes with its neighboring countries in Northeast Asia. These include disputes over the territorial sovereignty of the Northern Territories/ Southern Kuriles, Takeshima/Dokdo, and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands with Russia, Korea, and China, respectively, and the maritime delimitation disputes in the surrounding waters. The volume also includes Okinotori Island (Okinotorishima), for which Japan claims its 200–nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as a separate dispute with China. [End Page 167] These are all significant problems for Japan and its neighboring countries, with important political, economic, and security implications for their bilateral relations and for regional international relations as a whole. Many studies have already examined and considered solutions for these long-unresolved border disputes from various angles. Yet, facing the reality that there has been no resolution to these disputes, any new study that reexamines them and presents possible settlement ideas is welcome. Peace in Northeast Asia is one such attempt. The purpose of the volume, according to the introduction by the editor, Thomas J. Schoenbaum, is “to set out the history and basis of all three disputes and to suggest concrete ways they may be resolved” (p. 2). It also aims “to demonstrate how international law and international institutions can provide the basis for peaceful and harmonious settlement of sometimes dangerous international disputes” (p. 2). The volume consists of eight chapters: two are informative essays contributed by Reinhard Drifte and Michael Hahn, and the rest are written by the volume editor himself. In chapter 2, “The Politics of the East China Sea Gas Dispute: Ongoing Discussion between China and Japan,” Drifte explains the economic stakes of the two countries and traces development of their bilateral negotiations since 1968 to reach agreement about joint development of the energy sources in the East China Sea. In chapter 4, “Options for Dispute Settlement,” Hahn, on the other hand, introduces procedural avenues available under international law, particularly the United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to settle the disputes, including bilateral negotiations between the disputant countries, third-party mediation, and international arbitration such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). The rest of the volume (by Schoenbaum) provides historical background for these territorial and maritime disputes, discusses them in terms of international law, evaluates the positions of each disputant, and proposes settlement ideas for each dispute, in line with the purpose of the volume. The book’s “key recommendation,” according to Schoenbaum, is “to propose that the three disputes in question be resolved through the conclusion of three separate negotiated agreements between Japan and each of its neighbors, whereby three separate Zones of Cooperation and Environmental Protection will be established in Northeast Asia” (p. 5). Schoenbaum’s legal analysis supports Japan’s position in the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute (p. 45) as well as its claim for all four islands of the Northern Territories (p. 59), but not for Takeshima/Dokdo, which, he concludes, belongs to Korea (p. 54). His specific proposals for resolving these disputes do not necessarily correspond to his legal analysis. He proposes Chinese recognition of Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands (p. 101) and Japanese recognition [End Page 168] of Korean sovereignty over the Takeshima/Dokdo Islands (p. 115). However, for the Northern Territories, he proposes Japanese renunciation of its claim for the two large islands of Kunashiri and Etorofu, thus limiting its territorial recovery from Russia to Shikotan Island and the Habomais (p. 126). For the maritime boundary delimitations, he recommends that the Japan-China boundary should be drawn approximately halfway between the equidistance line (Japan’s position) and the Okinawa Trough (China’s position), which would give China “the largest share of the seabed of the East...

302 Pollen spectra of Tohoku Tsunami sediments in Shikotan Island (Southern Kuril Islands, NW Pacific Ocean)

302 Pollen spectra of Tohoku Tsunami sediments in Shikotan Island (Southern Kuril Islands, NW Pacific Ocean)

Modelling of zones of potential earthquakes foci for territories near Benioff zones

Based on the catalogue of earthquakes of the Kuril-Kamchatka region for the period from 1737 to 2007, a 3D model may zones of potential earthquake foci is developed for the Southern Kuril territory. The model can be useful for seismic hazard forecasting. Boundaries of structural elements of the zones with potential earthquake foci are determined by seismic methods.

Temporal structure and some features of stock dynamics of pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha (Salmonidae)

Characteristics of early and late migrants of pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha that spawned in the rivers of the coast of Aniva Bay (southern Sakhalin) and Iturup Island (southern Kuril Islands) are described. Upstream migration of the late form is characterized by the presence of large exemplars, especially males, and increasing proportion of these fishes in the catches. Absolute fecundity of the females of the early and late forms can be similar (Iturup Island) or different (Aniva Bay), but relative fecundity is lower in the females of the late form in both regions. Production of a larger number of eggs by the females of the early form is associated with a larger level of mortality: the abundance of the early form is comparatively low, and substantial annual variation of the abundance is registered. Relative abundance of pink salmon from the temporal groups depends mainly on reproductive conditions during the freshwater part of their life cycle. Analysis of size composition of the fish conducted over many years shows a trend in the ratio between the body lengths of males and females: unfavorable foraging conditions (and slower growth rate) lead to the appearance of females that are larger than males. To take into account a positive correlation between the body length and fecundity of females, this feature is regarded as a compensatory reaction of the population directed to more intensive reproduction at poor foraging conditions.

Northern Challenges: The Japan–Russian Border Dispute and Local Voices

Although 67 years have passed since the end of World War II, Japan and Russia have yet to conclude a peace treaty due to the unresolved territory problem. There have been many disputes concerning the Kuril Islands between Japan and the USSR/Russia; however, there is little mention of the residents of the Kuril Islands whose lives have been greatly influenced by these border issues. This article re-examines the Russo-Japanese territorial issues from the border viewpoint while clarifying what has occurred to the residents living in the border areas. The first Russo-Japanese border was drawn in 1855, separating the living areas of the indigenous people in the north and south of the Kuril Islands. A Japanese society, formed after the fall and assimilation of the indigenous people, was extinguished after Soviet Forces occupied the archipelago in 1945. Since then an actual border between the Kuril Islands and the eastern shore of Hokkaido has been in place. Most Japanese who were expelled from the southern Kurils settled in the Nemuro area in the eastern shore of Hokkaido and a Russian society has been established in Kuril Islands. Residents on both sides desire cross-border economic cooperation. They have shown a more flexible stance than that of their respective governments. Realities of borderland and the voices of people living there can be clues to resolve longstanding territorial disputes.

Why Moscow Has Escalated Its Territorial Dispute with Tokyo

Four reasons likely explain why President Dmitry Medvedev and other Russian officials have decided to escalate their 65-year-old dispute with Japan over the Southern Kurils/ Northern Territories. First, Tokyo's relations with China, North Korea, and other countries are poor. Furthermore, Russia is eager to raise its profile in East Asia more generally. In addition, the Japanese have become increasingly open to expanding economic ties with Russia despite the dispute. Finally, Medvedev himself has domestic political reasons to adopt a more aggressive posture toward Japan regarding the disputed islands. Russia has succeeded during the past few months in solidifying Moscow's hold over the islands. In the long term, the Japanese will probably prove more amenable to making the most concessions because China's continuing rise is presenting a greater threat to Tokyo's interests.