Southern Hemisphere Westerlies Research Articles

Developing lacustrine sedimentary records of storminess in southwestern New Zealand

Variability of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) are the dominant feature of the climatology of the Southern Hemisphere and they are reflected in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) which is defined as the difference in the zonal mean sea level pressure at 40°S and 65°S and is expressed as a latitudinal movement in the westerly circulation system. Meteorological data suggests that the SAM plays an important role in modern weather and climate of the Southern Hemisphere. Palaeostudies show that the westerly circulation system established its northern limits of present day airflow by the mid Holocene but the records from South America remain out of phase with those from the SW Pacific. In this study we report on the development of a flood frequency hydrological proxy that is based on the recognition of rapidly deposited layers preserved in lake sediments in southern South Island, New Zealand. Four distinct climate states can be identified: low storm frequency between 10 and 8 cal ka BP; moderate storm frequency between 8 and 5.5 cal ka BP, high storm frequency between 5.5 and 4 cal ka BP and low storm frequency between 4 cal ka BP and 750 cal a BP. A post-750 cal a BP increase storm frequency is likely to be a result of Polynesian vegetation disturbance. These four distinct climate states are driven by variations in the strength or persistence of westerly airflow. Comparison with similar records from east coast of the North Island, New Zealand and Ecuador suggest that all three sites experienced an increase in storm frequency in the middle Holocene. Divergence in the records in the late Holocene can be attributed to variability in the strength of ENSO and SAM in different locations.

Strengthening Southern Hemisphere Westerlies and Amundsen Sea Low Deepening Over the 20th Century Revealed by Proxy‐Data Assimilation

AbstractWinds and pressure over the Southern Ocean are critical to many aspects of the climate system, but the brevity of climate data in this region makes it challenging to interpret recent changes. Here, we reconstruct 20th century sea level pressure and zonal surface wind anomalies over the Southern Ocean, using data assimilation with a global paleoclimate proxy database and four climate‐model priors. The reconstructions agree well with instrumental reanalysis products, especially in the circumpolar westerly and Pacific regions. We observe significant strengthening in the midlatitude Pacific westerlies, associated with a deepening Amundsen Sea Low, throughout the 20th century in all four reconstructions. When the prior includes anthropogenic forcing, we observe poleward‐shifting circumpolar westerlies throughout the 20th century. Our results highlight the combined roles of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing, and the zonally asymmetric character of atmospheric circulation changes at high southern latitudes, with implications for Antarctic ice sheet change.

Pollen evidence of variations in Holocene climate and Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind strength on sub-Antarctic South Georgia

The Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW) play a major role in the global climate system. The winds drive ocean circulation and affect the Southern Oceans’ ability to take up atmospheric CO2. Recently, the SHW core belt has strengthened and shifted south, but there is an insufficient understanding of its long-term behaviour. Palaeoclimatic records are key for capturing long-term variability through the SHW’s effect on surface temperature and moisture availability. However, terrestrial records are sparse in the Southern Hemisphere. We use a palynological record from Lake Diamond on sub-Antarctic South Georgia to provide reconstructions of vegetation and climate for the last ~10,000 years. Influx of long-distance transported pollen is used as a measure of surface wind strength. Changes in relative pollen abundance of native taxa occupying either upland (cold) or lowland (warm) environments indicate local climatic variability. On South Georgia, we find long-distance transported pollen from South American taxa, mainly Nothofagus and Ephedra. They show a general increase in abundance throughout the Holocene, with peak influxes between 5700–5400, 2800–1500 and 1000–500 cal yr BP. These intervals coincide with colder periods inferred from the palynological record, suggesting that SHW variation and temperature on South Georgia are highly connected. Agreement with palaeoecological records from eastern Patagonia show that climatic changes have been regionally consistent. The record from Lake Diamond further illustrates the importance of remote islands in contributing to a deeper understanding of atmospheric circulation and climatic variability in the sub-Antarctic.

Northeastern Patagonian Glacier Advances (43°S) Reflect Northward Migration of the Southern Westerlies Towards the End of the Last Glaciation

The last glacial termination was a key event during Earth’s Quaternary history that was associated with rapid, high-magnitude environmental and climatic change. Identifying its trigger mechanisms is critical for understanding Earth’s modern climate system over millennial timescales. It has been proposed that latitudinal shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind belt and the coupled Subtropical Front are important components of the changes leading to global deglaciation, making them essential to investigate and reconstruct empirically. The Patagonian Andes are part of the only continental landmass that fully intersects the Southern Westerly Winds, and thus present an opportunity to study their former latitudinal migrations through time and to constrain southern mid-latitude palaeo-climates. Here we use a combination of geomorphological mapping, terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating and glacial numerical modelling to reconstruct the late-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) behaviour and surface mass balance of two mountain glaciers of northeastern Patagonia (43°S, 71°W), the El Loro and Río Comisario palaeo-glaciers. In both valleys, we find geomorphological evidence of glacier advances that occurred after the retreat of the main ice-sheet outlet glacier from its LGM margins. We date the outermost moraine in the El Loro valley to 18.0 ± 1.15 ka. Moreover, a series of moraine-matching simulations were run for both glaciers using a spatially-distributed ice-flow model coupled with a positive degree-day surface mass balance parameterisation. Following a correction for cumulative local surface uplift resulting from glacial isostatic adjustment since ∼18 ka, which we estimate to be ∼130 m, the glacier model suggests that regional mean annual temperatures were between 1.9 and 2.8°C lower than present at around 18.0 ± 1.15 ka, while precipitation was between ∼50 and ∼380% higher than today. Our findings support the proposed equatorward migration of the precipitation-bearing Southern Westerly Wind belt towards the end of the LGM, between ∼19.5 and ∼18 ka, which caused more humid conditions towards the eastern margins of the northern Patagonian Ice Sheet a few centuries ahead of widespread deglaciation across the cordillera.

The Driving Mechanisms on Southern Ocean Upwelling Change during the Last Deglaciation

We explore the change in Southern Ocean upwelling during the last deglaciation, based on proxy records and a transient climate model simulation. Our analyses suggest that, beyond a conventional mechanism of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies shift, Southern Ocean upwelling is strongly influenced by surface buoyancy forcing and the local topography. Over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region, the zonal mean and local upwelled flows exhibited distinct evolution patterns during the last deglaciation, since they are driven by different mechanisms. The zonal mean upwelling is primarily driven by surface wind stress via zonal mean Ekman pumping, whereas local upwelling is driven by both wind and buoyancy forcing, and is tightly coupled to local topography. During the early stage of the last deglaciation, the vertical extension of the upwelled flows increased downstream of submarine ridges but decreased upstream, which led to enhanced and diminished local upwelling, downstream and upstream of the submarine ridges, respectively.

The effects of historical ozone changes on Southern Ocean heat uptake and storage

Atmospheric ozone concentrations have dramatically changed in the last five decades of past century. Herein we explore the effects of historical ozone changes that include stratospheric ozone depletion on Southern Ocean heat uptake and storage, by comparing CESM1 large ensemble simulations with fixed-ozone experiment. During 1958–2005, the ozone changes contribute to about 50% of poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in historical simulations, which intensifies the Deacon Cell and residual meridional overturning circulation, thus contributing to heat redistribution in the Southern Ocean. Heat budget analysis shows that, in response to historical ozone changes, heat is taken up between 50 and 58 °S mainly through changes in sensible heat flux, shortwave radiation flux, and the flux due to seasonal sea ice formation and melt. A major part of the absorbed heat, however, is redistributed equatorward primarily through Eulerian mean ocean heat transport such that ocean heat storage peaks at lower latitudes, around 44 °S. The ozone-induced interior warming contributes to about 22% of the historical Southern Ocean warming over 1958–2005. Poleward of 62 °S where a subsurface temperature inversion occurs, shoaling isopycnals lead to warming and salinification in the upper ocean. To the north of 50 °S, the deep-reaching warming and freshening that correspond to the ocean heat storage maximum are primarily set by the deepening of isopycnals. The large-scale patterns of isopycnal shoaling (deepening) at high (middle) latitudes are consistent with the overlying negative (positive) wind stress curl anomalies related to the poleward intensification of westerly winds, suggesting that the wind changes play an important role in the Southern Ocean heat redistribution under the ozone forcing.

Broad-Scale Surface and Atmospheric Conditions during Large Fires in South-Central Chile

The unprecedented size of the 2017 wildfires that burned nearly 600,000 hectares of central Chile highlight a need to better understand the climatic conditions under which large fires develop. Here we evaluate synoptic atmospheric conditions at the surface and free troposphere associated with anomalously high (active) versus low (inactive) months of area burned in south-central Chile (ca. 32–41° S) from the Chilean Forest Service (CONAF) record of area burned from 1984–2018. Active fire months are correlated with warm surface temperatures, dry conditions, and the presence of a circumpolar assemblage of high-pressure systems located ca. 40°–60° S. Additionally, warm surface temperatures associated with active fire months are linked to reduced strength of cool, onshore westerly winds and an increase in warm, downslope Andean Cordillera easterly winds. Episodic warm downslope winds and easterly wind anomalies superimposed on long-term warming and drying trends will continue to create conditions that promote large fires in south-central Chile. Identifying the mechanisms responsible for easterly wind anomalies and determining whether this trend is strengthening due to synoptic-scale climatic changes such as the poleward shift in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds will be critical for anticipating future large fire activity in south-central Chile.

Planetary-wave induced strengthening of the AMOC forced by poleward intensified Southern Hemisphere westerly winds

AbstractThe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a key role in determining the distribution of heat and nutrients in the global ocean. Climate models suggest that Southern Ocean winds will strengthen and shift poleward in the future, which could have implications for future AMOC trends. Using a coupled global-ocean sea-ice model at 1/4°horizontal resolution, we study the response of the North Atlantic overturning to two anomalous Southern Ocean wind-forcing (τ+15%), and a poleward intensification(). In both scenarios a strengthening in the North Atlantic overturning develops within a decade, with a much stronger response in the case. In , we find that the primary link between the North Atlantic response and the Southern Ocean forcing is via the propagation of baroclinic waves. In fact, due to the rapid northward propagation of these waves, changes in the AMOC in the case appear to originate in the North Atlantic and propagate southward, whereas in the τ+15% case AMOC anomalies propagate northward from the Southern Ocean. We find the difference to be predominately caused by the sign of the baroclinic waves propagating from the forcing region into the North Atlantic; downwelling in the τ+15% case, versus upwelling in the case. In the case, upwelling waves propagating into the NADW formation regions along shelf-slope topography bringing dense water to the surface. This reduces vertical density gradients leading to deeper wintertime convective overturn of surface waters, and an intensification of the AMOC.

Mid-to Late Holocene climatic and anthropogenic influences in Mpondoland, South Africa

Mpondoland on the South African east coast is a particularly dynamic region in terms of climate change as it is influenced by both temperate and tropical circulation and climate systems. We present a sediment record that indicates regional climatic change and anthropogenic influence during the last ∼5500 yr. Catchment data allow an understanding of signal transmission from the catchment to the site of the marine core. Plant-wax isotope distributions and elemental composition, as well as palynological, burned phytolith and micro-charcoal data, are used to infer paleoclimatic shifts and reconstruct past human activity. Whereas previous studies have often disregarded early anthropogenic drivers of environmental change, our study provides palynological evidence of human impacts and geochemical evidence of increased erosion starting as early as ∼1500 years ago. Downcore proxy analysis suggests that particularly humid conditions persisted from ∼900 to ∼300 cal yr BP, encompassing both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. We suggest that humidity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly was sourced from a poleward shift of the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies and the South African high-pressure cell, allowing for the southward expansion of the Southern Indian Ocean Convergence Zone. During the Little Ice Age, the equatorward movement of the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies probably brought increased rainfall to areas that are normally beyond the northern limit of the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies. Comparison of our record to available regional archives of centennial-scale late Holocene climate variability in South Africa demonstrates that Mpondoland is located at a transition zone of tropical and sub-tropical climatic influences.

Long-term demise of sub-Antarctic glaciers modulated by the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies

The accelerated melting of ice on the Antarctic Peninsula and islands in the sub-Antarctic suggests that the cryosphere is edging towards an irreversible tipping point. How unusual is this trend of ice loss within the frame of natural variability, and to what extent can it be explained by underlying climate dynamics? Here, we present new high-resolution reconstructions of long-term changes in the extents of three glaciers on the island of South Georgia (54°S, 36°W), combining detailed analyses of glacial-derived sediments deposited in distal glacier-fed lakes and cosmogenic exposure dating of moraines. We document that the glaciers of South Georgia have gradually retracted since the Antarctic cold reversal (ACR, 14.5–12.8 ka), culminating in the disappearance of at least one of the reconstructed glaciers. The glacier retreat pattern observed in South Georgia suggests a persistent link to summer insolation at 55°S, which intensified during the period from the ACR to approximately 2 ka. It also reveals multi-decadal to centennial climate shifts superimposed on this long-term trend that have resulted in at least nine glacier readvances during the last 10.5 ka. Accompanying meridional changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and their interconnection with local topography may explain these glacier readvances.

Hydrographic shifts south of Australia over the last deglaciation and possible interhemispheric linkages

AbstractNorthern and southern hemispheric influences—particularly changes in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SSW) and Southern Ocean ventilation—triggered the stepwise atmospheric CO2increase that accompanied the last deglaciation. One approach for gaining potential insights into past changes in SWW/CO2upwelling is to reconstruct the positions of the northern oceanic fronts associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Using two deep-sea cores located ~600 km apart off the southern coast of Australia, we detail oceanic changes from ~23 to 6 ka using foraminifer faunal and biomarker alkenone records. Our results indicate a tight coupling between hydrographic and related frontal displacements offshore South Australia (and by analogy, possibly the entire Southern Ocean) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate that may help confirm previous hypotheses that the westerlies play a critical role in modulating CO2uptake and release from the Southern Ocean on millennial and potentially even centennial timescales. The intensity and extent of the northward displacements of the Subtropical Front following well-known NH cold events seem to decrease with progressing NH ice sheet deglaciation and parallel a weakening NH temperature response and amplitude of Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts. In addition, an exceptional poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere fronts occurs during the NH Heinrich Stadial 1. This event was likely facilitated by the NH ice maximum and acted as a coup-de-grâce for glacial ocean stratification and its high CO2capacitance. Thus, through its influence on the global atmosphere and on ocean mixing, “excessive” NH glaciation could have triggered its own demise by facilitating the destratification of the glacial ocean CO2state.

On the Generation of Weddell Sea Polynyas in a High-Resolution Earth System Model

AbstractLarger Weddell Sea polynyas (WSPs), differentiated in this study from the smaller Maud Rise Polynyas (MRPs) that form to the east of the prime meridian in the proximity of the Maud Rise seamount, have last been observed in the 1970s. We investigate WSPs that grow realistically out of MRPs in a high-resolution preindustrial simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 0.1. The formation of MRPs requires high resolution to simulate the detailed flow around Maud Rise, whereas the realistic formation of WSPs requires a model to produce MRPs. Furthermore, WSPs tend to follow periods of a prolonged buildup of a heat reservoir at depth and weakly negative wind stress curl in association with the core of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at an anomalously northern position. While this scenario also leads to drier conditions over the central Weddell Sea, which some literature claims to be a necessary condition for the formation of WSPs, our model results indicate that open-ocean polynyas do not occur during periods of weakly negative wind stress curl despite drier atmospheric conditions. Our study supports the hypothesis noted in earlier studies that a shift from a weakly negative to a strongly negative wind stress curl over the Weddell Sea is a prerequisite for WSPs to form, together with a large heat reservoir at depth. However, the ultimate trigger is a pronounced MRP, whose associated convection creates high surface salinity anomalies that propagate westward with the flow of the Weddell Gyre. If large enough, these anomalies trigger the formation of a WSP and a pulse of newly formed Antarctic Bottom Water.

Late cenozoic geology and geomorphology of the Laguna de Agnia Area, Argentina

Laguna de Agnia is located within an endorheic basin in arid extra-Andean Patagonia. A variety of erosional and depositional landforms, most of which are relict, are well preserved in the basin. Geological, geomorphological, and sedimentological studies, 14C and 40Ar/39Ar ages, and paleomagnetic data allow us to modify the published interpretation of the late Cenozoic stratigraphy of the area and provide an improved understanding of local landscape evolution, and paleoenvironments and paleoclimates in the region. The basin formed during or before the late Oligocene. Miocene pyroclastic deposits, which are widely distributed in this part of Patagonia, were not found within the basin. However, a bajada sloping down toward the east side of the lake likely dates to the Miocene. Basalt lava flows reached the west margin of the Laguna de Agnia depression 3.39 ± 0.02 Ma. A lacustrine phase is manifest in numerous shorelines and related features east of and above the modern lake. This shoreline system, one of the most extensive in Patagonia, provides evidence for high paleo-lake levels associated with cooler and wetter conditions during the late Pleistocene and even in some periods during the Holocene, when Southern Hemisphere Westerlies were more intense than today.

Glacial to interglacial climate variability in the southeastern African subtropics (25–20° S)

Abstract. We present a continuous and well-resolved record of climatic variability for the past 100 000 years from a marine sediment core taken in Delagoa Bight, off southeastern Africa. In addition to providing a sea surface temperature reconstruction for the past ca. 100 000 years, this record also allows a high-resolution continental climatic reconstruction. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as elemental indicators of fluvial input and weathering type provide information on climatic changes in the adjacent catchment areas (Incomati, Matola and Lusutfu rivers). At the transition between glacials and interglacials, shifts in vegetation correlate with changes in sea surface temperature in the Agulhas Current. The local hydrology, however, does not follow these orbitally paced shifts. Instead, precipitation patterns follow millennial-scale variations with different forcing mechanisms in glacial vs. interglacial climatic states. During glacials, southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone facilitates a transmission of northern hemispheric signals (e.g., Heinrich events) to the southern hemispheric subtropics. Furthermore, the southern hemispheric westerlies become a more direct source of precipitation as they shift northward over the study site, especially during Antarctic cold phases. During interglacials, the observed short-term hydrological variability is also a function of Antarctic climate variability; however, it is driven by the indirect influence of the southern hemispheric westerlies and the associated South African high-pressure cell blocking the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone related precipitation. As a consequence of the interplay of these effects, small-scale climatic zones exist. We propose a conceptual model describing latitudinal shifts of these zones along the southeastern African coast as tropical and temperate climate systems shift over glacial and interglacial cycles. The proposed model explains some of the apparent contradictions between several paleoclimate records in the region.

The Roles of Wind and Sea Ice in Driving the Deglacial Change in the Southern Ocean Upwelling: A Modeling Study

The Southern Ocean (SO) played a fundamental role in the deglacial climate system by exchanging carbon-rich deep ocean water with the surface. The contribution of the SO’s physical mechanisms toward improving our understanding of SO upwelling’s dynamical changes is developing. Here, we investigated the simulated transient SO atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice evolution during the last deglaciation in a fully coupled Earth system model. Our results showed that decreases in SO upwelling followed the weakening of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies, wind stress forcing, and Antarctic sea ice coverage from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas. Our results support the idea that the SO upwelling is primarily driven by wind stress forcing. However, during the onset of the Holocene, SO upwelling increased while the strength of the wind stress decreased. The Antarctic sea ice change controlled the salt and freshwater fluxes, ocean density, and buoyancy flux, thereby influencing the SO’s dynamics. Our study highlighted the dynamic linkage of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, ocean, and sea ice in the SO’s latitudes. Furthermore, it emphasized that zonal wind stress forcing and buoyancy forcing control by sea ice together regulate the change in the SO upwelling.

A palaeoenvironmental record of the Southern Hemisphere last glacial maximum from the Mount Cass loess section, North Canterbury, Aotearoa/New Zealand

AbstractCalcareous loess in North Canterbury, eastern South Island, New Zealand (NZ), preserves subfossil bird bone, terrestrial gastropods, and eggshell, whose abundances and radiocarbon ages allowed us to reconstruct aspects of palaeoenvironment at high resolution through 25 to 21 cal ka BP. This interval includes millennial-scale climatic variability during the extended last glacial maximum (30–18 ka) of Australasia. Our loess palaeoclimatic record shows good correspondence with stadial and interstadial climate events of the NZ Climate Event Stratigraphy, which were defined from a pollen record on the western side of South Island. An interstade from 25.4 to 24 cal ka BP was warm but also relatively humid on eastern South Island, and loess grain size may indicate reduced vigour of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. The subsequent stade (24–22.6 cal ka BP) was drier, colder, and probably windier. The next interstade remained relatively dry on eastern South Island, and westerly winds remained vigorous. The 25.4–24 ka interstade is synchronous with Heinrich stade 2, which may have driven a southward migration of the subtropical front, leading to warming and wetting of northern and central South Island and retreat of Southern Alps glaciers at ca. 26.5 ka.

Southward migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds corresponds with warming climate over centennial timescales

Recent changes in the strength and location of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) have been linked to continental droughts and wildfires, changes in the Southern Ocean carbon sink, sea ice extent, ocean circulation, and ice shelf stability. Despite their critical role, our ability to predict their impacts under future climates is limited by a lack of data on SHW behaviour over centennial timescales. Here, we present a 700-year record of changes in SHW intensity from sub-Antarctic Marion Island using diatom and geochemical proxies and compare it with paleoclimate records and recent instrumental data. During cool periods, such as the Little Ice Age (c. 1400–1870 CE), the winds weakened and shifted towards the equator, and during warm periods they intensified and migrated poleward. These results imply that changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient drive century-scale SHW migrations, and that intensification of impacts can be anticipated in the coming century.

The role of Southern Hemispheric Westerlies for Holocene hydroclimatic changes in the steppe of Tierra del Fuego (Argentina)

The steppe of northern Tierra del Fuego is an important region for studying climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere, due to its position at the southern margin of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind belt. Here we present a multiproxy analysis of a sedimentary sequence from Laguna Carmen (53°S, 68°W) which provides evidence of the progressive aridity and strengthening of the low-level Westerlies during the Late Holocene. We identified three prominent phases in the climatic record from Laguna Carmen: a cold and wet period between ~4000 cal. BP and ~2200 cal. BP, evidenced by a relative high lake level, periodic runoff into the lake, and oligohaline (mean: 2554 μS/cm) salinities; a step-change towards warmer and drier conditions after ~2200 cal. BP, reflected by limited runoff and oligo-mesohaline salinities (mean: 4799 μS/cm); and finally, the establishment of modern semi-arid conditions some time after ~1000 cal. BP, when the lake became a shallow lake that sometimes dried out during the summer. Our results coincide with paleoclimatic numerical models that suggest a progressive aridification of the southern Patagonian steppe since 6000 cal. BP due to stronger Westerlies and higher temperatures associated with changes in solar irradiance.

Contrasting Recent Trends in Southern Hemisphere Westerlies Across Different Ocean Basins

AbstractMany studies have documented the trends in the latitudinal position and strength of the midlatitude westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere. However, very little attention has been paid to the longitudinal variations of these trends. Here, we specifically focus on the zonal asymmetries in the southern hemisphere wind trends between 1980 and 2018. Meteorological reanalyses show a large strengthening and a statistically insignificant equatorward shift of peak near‐surface winds over the Pacific, in contrast to a weaker strengthening and significant poleward shift over the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors. The reanalysis trends fall within the ensemble spread for historical climate model simulations, showing that climate models are able to capture the observed trends. Climate model simulations indicate that the differential movement of the peak westerlies is a manifestation of internal variability and is not a forced response. Implications of these asymmetries for other components of the climate system are discussed.

Transient Overturning Compensation between Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Basins

AbstractClimate models consistently project (i) a decline in the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and (ii) a strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. These two processes suggest potentially conflicting tendencies of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): a weakening AMOC due to changes in the North Atlantic but a strengthening AMOC due to changes in the Southern Ocean. Here we focus on the transient evolution of the global ocean overturning circulation in response to a perturbation to the NADW formation rate. We propose that the adjustment of the Indo-Pacific overturning circulation is a critical component in mediating AMOC changes. Using a hierarchy of ocean and climate models, we show that the Indo-Pacific overturning circulation provides the first response to AMOC changes through wave processes, whereas the Southern Ocean overturning circulation responds on longer (centennial to millennial) time scales that are determined by eddy diffusion processes. Changes in the Indo-Pacific overturning circulation compensate AMOC changes, which allows the Southern Ocean overturning circulation to evolve independently of the AMOC, at least over time scales up to many decades. In a warming climate, the Indo-Pacific develops an overturning circulation anomaly associated with the weakening AMOC that is characterized by a northward transport close to the surface and a southward transport in the deep ocean, which could effectively redistribute heat between the basins. Our results highlight the importance of interbasin exchange in the response of the global ocean overturning circulation to a changing climate.