Southern Hemisphere Climate Research Articles

Influence of the Boreal Autumn Southern Annular Mode on Winter Precipitation over Land in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract As an atmospheric oscillation with a global scale, the Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode (SAM) contributes not only to SH climate variability but also to climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This paper demonstrates that the strong (weak) boreal autumn SAM usually favors a positive (negative) tripole precipitation pattern in the NH, with more (less) precipitation over the equator and midlatitudes but less (more) precipitation in the subtropics. The corresponding mechanism is examined based on reanalysis data and numerical modeling. It is suggested that the boreal autumn SAM is associated with changes in surface subpolar westerlies, which influence the surface heat exchange and drive the meridional oceanic Ekman flow, redistributing heat near the surface. Through these, warmer (colder) and colder (warmer) sea surface temperature (SST) belts in the SH middle and high latitudes form in response to the positive (negative) boreal autumn SAM, respectively. Such a positive (negative) Southern Ocean SST dipole pattern can persist into the boreal winter via the “memory” of SST. It can then affect the vertical motion in the SH meridional circulation and strengthen (weaken) the NH upward and downward branches. These anomalous vertical flows favor a positive (negative) tripole precipitation anomaly pattern in the NH under suitable moisture conditions. Such an “ocean–atmosphere coupled bridge” allows the influence of the boreal autumn SAM to persist into the following season and affect the NH climate. Hence, this work suggests that the boreal autumn SAM provides a significant forecasting signal for the NH climate in the following winter.

The influence of boreal winter extratropical North Pacific Oscillation on Australian spring rainfall

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key atmospheric intrinsic mode. This study concerns mechanisms that the NPO influences Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies after several months. It is found that the boreal wintertime NPO has a significant negative connection with austral spring rainfall anomalies in Australia, particularly in the Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A positive NPO phase tends to be followed by dry conditions, while a negative phase by wet conditions in austral spring over much of northern and eastern Australia. The physical mechanism by which the boreal winter NPO affects Australian rainfall arises from the NPO seasonal footprinting mechanism that generates significant tropical central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies during austral spring. Then, the positive NPO-related SST warming anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific further induce a weakened Walker circulation, with its western subsiding branch over Australia, suppressing convection and thereby reducing rainfall. Furthermore, the NPO plays an important role in contributing to the significant long-term trends of the Northern Territory and Queensland rainfalls. The decreasing amplitude of the NPO contributes much of the observed rainfall wetting trends in the Northern Territory (~50 %) and Queensland (~60 %) regions during 1951–2010. Noted that caution is recommended regarding the Australian spring rainfall trend results obtained in this study as the austral spring rainfall trends may be sensitive to the choice of the selected time period.

On the surface impact of Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes

A comprehensive stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, with interactive stratospheric ozone chemistry, coupled to ocean, sea ice and land components is used to explore the tropospheric and surface impacts of large springtime ozone anomalies in the Arctic stratosphere. Coupling between the Antarctic ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate has been identified in numerous studies, but connections of Arctic ozone loss to surface climate have been more difficult to elucidate. Analyzing an ensemble of historical integrations with all known natural and anthropogenic forcings specified over the period 1955–2005, we find that extremely low stratospheric ozone changes are able to produce large and robust anomalies in tropospheric wind, temperature and precipitation in April and May over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere (most notably over the North Atlantic and Eurasia). Further, these ozone-induced surface anomalies are obtained only in the last two decades of the 20th century, when high concentrations of ozone depleting substances generate sufficiently strong stratospheric temperature anomalies to impact the surface climate. Our findings suggest that coupling between chemistry and dynamics is essential for a complete representation of surface climate variability and climate change not only in Antarctica but also in the Arctic.

Evaluation of Atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in 20CRv2

Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2(20CRv2) is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/ NCAR version 2 Reanalysis data(NCEPv2) and the Hadley Center sea-level pressure data(HadSLPv2).The results show that SH polar High,SH subtropical High,upper level split jet,cross-equatorial flow,Antarctic Oscillation(AAO),and the pattern of Pacific-South-America(PSA) has been effectively captured by 20CRv2 during 1979–2010,with an apparent zonal asymmetry of AAO in the austral winter(June-July-August,JJA).The notable upward linear trend of AAO in the entire period of 1871– 2010 is represented in both 20CRv2 and HadSlPv2.The most remarkable discrepancy of the SH climate variability between 20CRv2 and HadSLPv2 occurred in 1897–1920 and was partly caused by such factors as the paucity of meteorological and oceanographic data in the SH to be assimilated,the handling of the specified sea-ice concentration in South Pole,and imperfect climate models.The consistency of these reanalysis data is increased with the use of a large amount of satellite observation and radiosonde data,particularly after 1979.

Obliquity Control On Southern Hemisphere Climate During The Last Glacial.

Recent paleoclimate reconstructions have challenged the traditional view that Northern Hemisphere insolation and associated feedbacks drove synchronous global climate and ice-sheet volume during the last glacial cycle. Here we focus on the response of the Patagonian Ice Sheet, and demonstrate that its maximum expansion culminated at 28,400 ± 500 years before present (28.4 ± 0.5 ka), more than 5,000 years before the minima in 65°N summer insolation and the formally-defined Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at 21,000 ± 2,000 years before present. To investigate the potential drivers of this early LGM (eLGM), we simulate the effects of orbital changes using a suite of climate models incorporating prescribed and evolving sea-ice anomalies. Our analyses suggest that Antarctic sea-ice expansion at 28.5 ka altered the location and intensity of the Southern Hemisphere storm track, triggering regional cooling over Patagonia of 5°C that extends across the wider mid-southern latitudes. In contrast, at the LGM, continued sea-ice expansion reduced regional temperature and precipitation further, effectively starving the ice sheet and resulting in reduced glacial expansion. Our findings highlight the dominant role that orbital changes can play in driving Southern Hemisphere glacial climate via the sensitivity of mid-latitude regions to changes in Antarctic sea-ice extent.

Potential for Southern Hemisphere climate surprises

ABSTRACTClimate model results suggest that future climate change in Antarctica will be accompanied by continued strengthening and poleward contraction of the Southern Ocean westerly wind belt. Paleoclimate records suggest past changes in the westerly winds can be abrupt and that healing of the Antarctic ozone hole could lead to poleward contraction of the westerlies and increased meridional atmospheric transport of warm air regionally into Antarctica. An abrupt shift to more meridional circulation could lead to notable changes in moisture availability for extra‐Antarctic regions, increased Antarctic ice sheet disintegration and more rapid sea‐level rise.

The Southern Glacial Maximum 65,000 years ago and its Unfinished Termination

Glacial maxima and their terminations provide key insights into inter-hemispheric climate dynamics and the coupling of atmosphere, surface and deep ocean, hydrology, and cryosphere, which is fundamental for evaluating the robustness of earth's climate in view of ongoing climate change. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼26–19 ka ago) is widely seen as the global cold peak during the last glacial cycle, and its transition to the Holocene interglacial, dubbed 'Termination 1 (T1)', as the most dramatic climate reorganization during this interval. Climate records show that over the last 800 ka, ice ages peaked and terminated on average every 100 ka (‘100 ka world’). However, the mechanisms pacing glacial–interglacial transitions remain controversial and in particular the hemispheric manifestations and underlying orbital to regional driving forces of glacial maxima and subsequent terminations remain poorly understood.Here we show evidence for a full glacial maximum in the Southern Hemisphere 65.1 ± 2.7 ka ago and its ‘Unfinished Termination’. Our 10Be chronology combined with a model simulation demonstrates that New Zealand's glaciers reached their maximum position of the last glacial cycle during Marine Isotope Stage-4 (MIS-4). Southern ocean and greenhouse gas records indicate coeval peak glacial conditions, making the case for the Southern Glacial Maximum about halfway through the last glacial cycle and only 15 ka after the last warm period (MIS-5a). We present the hypothesis that subsequently, driven by boreal summer insolation forcing, a termination began but remained unfinished, possibly because the northern ice sheets were only moderately large and could not supply enough meltwater to the North Atlantic through Heinrich Stadial 6 to drive a full termination. Yet the Unfinished Termination left behind substantial ice on the northern continents (about 50% of the full LGM ice volume) and after another 45 ka of cooling and ice sheet growth the earth was at inter-hemispheric Last Glacial Maximum configuration, when similar orbital forcing hit maximum-size northern ice sheets and ushered in T1 and thus the ongoing interglacial. This argument highlights the critical role of full glacial conditions in both hemispheres for terminations and implies that the Southern Hemisphere climate could transition from interglacial to full glacial conditions in about 15,000 years, while the Northern Hemisphere and its continental ice-sheets required half a glacial cycle.

Contribution of enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation to Antarctic warm events and millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 increase

During Marine Isotope Stage 3, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakened significantly on a millennial time-scale leading to Greenland stadials. Ice core records reveal that each Greenland stadial is associated with a warming over Antarctica, so-called Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM), and that atmospheric CO2 increases with Antarctic temperature during the long Greenland stadials. Here we perform transient simulations spanning the period 50–34 ka B.P. with two Earth System Models (LOVECLIM and the UVic ESCM) to understand the possible link between changes in the AMOC, changes in high latitude Southern Hemispheric climate and evolution of atmospheric CO2. We find that oceanic carbon releases due to the AMOC resumption during stadial/interstadial transitions lead to an atmospheric CO2 increase. However, the atmospheric CO2 increases observed during the first parts of AIM12 (∼47.6 ka B.P.) and AIM8 (∼39.8 ka B.P.) occur during periods of weak AMOC (HS5 and HS4 respectively) and could instead be explained by enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water transport. Enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation is shown to effectively ventilate the deep Pacific carbon and lead to CO2 outgassing into the atmosphere. In addition, changes in the AMOC alone are not sufficient to explain the largest Antarctic Isotope Maxima (namely AIM12 and AIM8). Stronger formation of Antarctic Bottom Water during AIM12 and AIM8 would enhance the southern high latitude warming and lead to a better agreement with high southern latitude paleoproxy records. The robustness of this southern warming response is tested using an eddy-permitting coupled ocean sea–ice model. We show that stronger Antarctic Bottom Water formation contributes to Southern Ocean surface warming by increasing the Southern Ocean meridional heat transport.

Teleconnections between Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies and Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Climate

Abstract Teleconnections from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) are examined using observations and reanalysis. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST anomalies is conducted separately for the central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) regions. During the austral cold season, extratropical SH atmospheric Rossby wave train patterns are observed in association with both EP and CP SST variability. The primary difference between the patterns is the westward displacement of the CP-related atmospheric anomalies, consistent with the westward elongation of CP-related convective SST required for upper-level divergence and Rossby wave generation. Consequently, CP-related patterns of SH SST, Antarctic sea ice, and temperature anomalies also exhibit a westward displacement, but otherwise, the cold season extratropical SH teleconnections are largely similar. During the warm season, however, extratropical SH teleconnections associated with tropical CP and EP SST anomalies differ substantially. EP SST variability is linked to largely zonally symmetric structures in the extratropical atmospheric circulation, which projects onto the southern annular mode (SAM), and is strongly related to the SH temperature and sea ice fields. In contrast, CP SST variability is only weakly related to the SH atmospheric circulation, temperature, or sea ice fields and no longer exhibits any clear association with the SAM. One hypothesized mechanism suggests that the relatively weak CP-related SST anomalies are not able to substantially impact the background flow of the subtropical jet and its subsequent interaction with equatorward-propagating waves associated with variability in the SAM. However, there is currently no widely established mechanism that links tropical Pacific SST anomalies to the SAM.

Glacial–interglacial contrast in MBT/CBT proxies in the South China Sea: Implications for marine production of branched GDGTs and continental teleconnection

Two proxies derived from branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (br GDGTs), the methylation index of branched tetraethers (MBT) and the cyclization ratio of branched tetraethers (CBT), are often used to reconstruct paleo mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and soil pH based on the premise that br GDGTs in the marine environment are mainly of terrigenous origin. However, mounting evidence indicates that br GDGTs can be produced in situ in oceanic settings, which may affect MAAT reconstruction and the use of other related paleoenvironmental proxies. We have determined br GDGT distributions in a sedimentary core (MD05-2896/7) from the southern South China Sea, which provided high resolution profiles of MBT and CBT indices as well as the branched and isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index. BIT varied systematically with glacial–interglacial cycles, reaching much lower (<0.1) values during the interglacial periods (MIS 1 and MIS 5) than during the glacial periods (MIS 2, MIS 3, MIS 4 and MIS 6). MBT/CBT-derived temperature showed, on the other hand, lower values during the interglacial periods but higher values during glacial periods. We hypothesize that the lower MBT/CBT-derived temperature during interglacial periods reflects bottom water temperature registered via br GDGTs produced under marine conditions, whereas the higher MBT/CBT derived temperature during glacial periods reflects terrestrial MAAT because of the overwhelming input of br GDGTs from land when the sea level was low. Similarly, the CBT-derived soil pH appeared to have been overprinted by marine br GDGT production during interglacial periods but responded to precipitation on land during glacial periods, showing patterns similar to, or as a positive response to, the southern hemispheric climate oscillation due to teleconnection. Our results demonstrate an unprecedented pattern of MBT/CBT variation constrained by glacial–interglacial cycles in the South China Sea. Under this constraint, MBT/CBT revealed deep water production of br GDGTs during interglacial periods and recorded changes in paleohydrology on land during glacial periods, providing a new perspective for paleoclimate studies using organic proxies.

The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate

Abstract. The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss resulting from chlorine activation on polar stratospheric clouds is examined using a pair of model integrations run with the fully coupled chemistry climate model UM-UKCA. Suppressing chlorine activation through heterogeneous reactions is found to produce modelled ozone differences consistent with observed ozone differences between the present and pre-ozone hole period. Statistically significant high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) ozone loss begins in August and peaks in October–November, with &gt; 75% of ozone destroyed at 50 hPa. Associated with this ozone destruction is a &gt; 12 K decrease of the lower polar stratospheric temperatures and an increase of &gt; 6 K in the upper stratosphere. The heating components of this temperature change are diagnosed and it is found that the temperature dipole is the result of decreased short-wave heating in the lower stratosphere and increased dynamical heating in the upper stratosphere. The cooling of the polar lower stratosphere leads, through thermal wind balance, to an acceleration of the polar vortex and delays its breakdown by ~ 2 weeks. A link between lower stratospheric zonal wind speed, the vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux, Fz and the residual mean vertical circulation, w*, is identified. In November and December, increased westerly winds and a delay in the breakup of the polar vortex lead to increases in Fz, indicating increased wave activity entering the stratosphere and propagating to higher altitudes. The resulting increase in wave breaking, diagnosed by decreases to the EP flux divergence, drives enhanced downwelling over the polar cap. Many of the stratospheric signals modelled in this study propagate down to the troposphere, and lead to significant surface changes in December.

Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The importance of the ozone data set

AbstractThe ozone hole is an important driver of recent Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change, and capturing these changes is a goal of climate modeling. Most climate models are driven by off‐line ozone data sets. Previous studies have shown that there is a substantial range in estimates of SH ozone depletion, but the implications of this range have not been examined systematically. We use a climate model to evaluate the difference between using the ozone forcing (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)) used by many Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models and one at the upper end of the observed depletion estimates (Binary Database of Profiles (BDBP)). In the stratosphere, we find that austral spring/summer polar cap cooling, geopotential height decreases, and zonal wind increases in the BDBP simulations are all doubled compared to the SPARC simulations, while tropospheric responses are 20–100% larger. These results are important for studies attempting to diagnose the climate fingerprints of ozone depletion.

Direct and ozone‐mediated forcing of the Southern Annular Mode by greenhouse gases

AbstractWe assess the roles of long‐lived greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in driving meridional surface pressure gradients in the southern extratropics; these gradients are a defining feature of the Southern Annular Mode. Stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to have caused a strengthening of this mode during summer, with increasing long‐lived greenhouse gases playing a secondary role. Using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean chemistry‐climate model, we show that there is cancelation between the direct, radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases by the also substantial indirect—chemical and dynamical—feedbacks that greenhouse gases have via their impact on ozone. This sensitivity of the mode to greenhouse gas‐induced ozone changes suggests that a consistent implementation of ozone changes due to long‐lived greenhouse gases in climate models benefits the simulation of this important aspect of Southern Hemisphere climate.

Biases in southern hemisphere climate trends induced by coarsely specifying the temporal resolution of stratospheric ozone

AbstractGlobal climate models that do not include interactive middle atmosphere chemistry, such as most of those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, typically specify stratospheric ozone using monthly mean, zonal mean values and linearly interpolate to the time resolution of the model. We show that this method leads to significant biases in the simulated climate of the southern hemisphere (SH) over the late twentieth century. Previous studies have attributed similar biases in simulated SH climate change to the effect of the spatial smoothing of the specified ozone, i.e., to using zonal mean concentrations. We here show that the bias in climate trends due to undersampling of the rapid temporal changes in ozone during the seasonal evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole is considerable and reaches all the way into the troposphere. Our results suggest that the bias can be substantially reduced by specifying daily ozone concentrations.

Not just about sunburn--the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems.

Climate scientists have concluded that stratospheric ozone depletion has been a major driver of Southern Hemisphere climate processes since about 1980. The implications of these observed and modelled changes in climate are likely to be far more pervasive for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems than the increase in ultraviolet-B radiation due to ozone depletion; however, they have been largely overlooked in the biological literature. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of how ozone depletion has impacted Southern Hemisphere climate and highlight the relatively few documented impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Reviewing the climate literature, we present examples of how ozone depletion changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation, with an emphasis on how these alterations in the physical climate system affect Southern Hemisphere weather, especially over the summer season (December-February). These potentially include increased incidence of extreme events, resulting in costly floods, drought, wildfires and serious environmental damage. The ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes. The objective of this synthesis was to stimulate the ecological community to look beyond ultraviolet-B radiation when considering the impacts of ozone depletion. Such widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate are likely to have had as much or more impact on natural ecosystems and food production over the past few decades, than the increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion.

Some advances in studies of the climatic impacts of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode (SAM) is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the SH extratropics. The SAM regulates climate in many regions due to its large spatial scale. Exploration of the climatic impacts of the SAM is a new research field that has developed rapidly in recent years. This paper reviews studies of the climatic impact of the SAM on the SH and the Northern Hemisphere (NH), emphasizing linkages between the SAM and climate in China. Studies relating the SAM to climate change are also discussed. A general survey of these studies shows that signals of the SAM in the SH climate have been systematically investigated. On interannual scales, the SAM can influence the position of storm tracks and the vertical circulation, and modulate the dynamic and thermodynamic driving effects of the surface wind on the underlying surface, thus influencing the SH air-sea-ice coupled system. These influences generally show zonally symmetrical characteristics, but with local features. On climate change scales, the impacts of the SAM on SH climate change show a similar spatial distribution to those on interannual scales. There are also meaningful results on the relationship between the SAM and the NH climate. The SAM is known to affect the East Asian, West African, and North American summer monsoons, as well as the winter monsoon in China. Air-sea interaction plays an important role in these connections in terms of the storage of the SAM signal and its propagation from the SH to the NH. However, compared with the considerable knowledge of the impact of the SAM on the SH climate, the response of the NH climate to the SAM deserves further study, including both a deep understanding of the propagation mechanism of the SAM signal from the SH to the NH and the establishment of a seasonal prediction model based on the SAM.

The influence of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation on Antarctic sea ice during ice advance and retreat seasons

AbstractAntarctic sea ice, a key component of the Southern Hemisphere climate system, is influenced by several large‐scale modes of the atmospheric circulation. Antarctic sea ice variability is spatially heterogeneous, and links between the atmospheric circulation modes and the sea ice variability are unclear. Using the observed sea ice concentration data, this research isolates distinct regions of sea ice variability around Antarctica and determines the advance and retreat periods for each of them. The latter are then statistically linked with the observed geopotential height data to determine the atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the variability in the sea ice for each period and region. The results clarify which circulation mechanism is of primary importance to sea ice variability during critical periods of the ice lifecycle in the different regions around Antarctica and have potential for making estimates of past sea ice extent using the observed geopotential height data.

The Role of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Breakdown in Southern Hemisphere Climate Trends

Abstract This paper investigates the connection between the delay in the final breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, the stratospheric final warming (SFW), and Southern Hemisphere climate trends. The authors first analyze Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and three climate model outputs with different climate forcings. Climate trends appear when there is a delay in the timing of SFWs. When regressed onto the SFW dates (which reflect the anomaly when the SFW is delayed for one standard deviation of its onset dates), the anomaly pattern bears a resemblance to the observed climate trends, for all the model outputs, even without any trends. This suggests that the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations are organized by the timing of SFWs in both the interannual time scale and climate trends because of external forcings. The authors further explore the role of the SFW using a simplified dynamical model in which the ozone depletion is mimicked by a springtime polar stratospheric cooling. The responses of zonal-mean atmospheric circulation, including zonal wind, temperature, and poleward edge of the Hadley cell and the Ferrel cell, are similar to the observed climate trends. The authors divide the years into those in which the SFW is delayed and those in which it is not. The responses for the years in which the SFW is delayed are very similar to the overall response, while the stratosphere is only characterized by the localized cooling for those years in which the SFW is not delayed, with no subsequent downward influence into the troposphere. This suggests that, in order to affect the troposphere, ozone depletion must first delay the SFW so as to induce a deep response in planetary wave drag and the associated eddy-driven circulation.

Links between the Big Dry in Australia and hemispheric multi-decadal climate variability – implications for water resource management

Abstract. Southeast Australia (SEA) experienced a protracted drought during the mid-1990s until early 2010 (known as the Big Dry or Millennium Drought) that resulted in serious environmental, social and economic effects. This paper analyses a range of historical climate data sets to place the recent drought into context in terms of Southern Hemisphere inter-annual to multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability. The findings indicate that the recent Big Dry in SEA is in fact linked to the widespread Southern Hemisphere climate shift towards drier conditions that began in the mid-1970s. However, it is shown that this link is masked because the large-scale climate drivers responsible for drying in other regions of the mid-latitudes since the mid-1970s did not have the same effect on SEA during the mid- to late 1980s and early 1990s. More specifically, smaller-scale synoptic processes resulted in elevated autumn and winter rainfall (a crucial period for SEA hydrology) during the mid- to late 1980s and early 1990s, which punctuated the longer-term drying. From the mid-1990s to 2010 the frequency of the synoptic processes associated with elevated autumn/winter rainfall decreased, resulting in a return to drier than average conditions and the onset of the Big Dry. The findings presented in this paper have marked implications for water management and climate attribution studies in SEA, in particular for understanding and dealing with "baseline" (i.e. current) hydroclimatic risks.

Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation.

Our understanding of the deglacial evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) following the Last Glacial Maximum (26,000-19,000years ago) is based largely on a few well-dated but temporally and geographically restricted terrestrial and shallow-marine sequences. This sparseness limits our understanding of the dominant feedbacks between the AIS, Southern Hemisphere climate and global sea level. Marine records of iceberg-rafted debris (IBRD) provide a nearly continuous signal of ice-sheet dynamics and variability. IBRD records from the North Atlantic Ocean have been widely used to reconstruct variability in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but comparable records from the Southern Ocean of the AIS are lacking because of the low resolution and large dating uncertainties in existing sediment cores. Here we present two well-dated, high-resolution IBRD records that capture a spatially integrated signal of AIS variability during the last deglaciation. We document eight events of increased iceberg flux from various parts of the AIS between 20,000 and 9,000years ago, in marked contrast to previous scenarios which identified the main AIS retreat as occurring after meltwater pulse 1A and continuing into the late Holocene epoch. The highest IBRD flux occurred 14,600years ago, providing the first direct evidence for an Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A. Climate model simulations with AIS freshwater forcing identify a positive feedback between poleward transport of Circumpolar Deep Water, subsurface warming and AIS melt, suggesting that small perturbations to the ice sheet can be substantially enhanced, providing a possible mechanism for rapid sea-level rise.